"Why I Completely Changed My Nvidia Prediction" | Jim Cramer

요약 보기

엔비디아의 AI 지배력이 흔들린다는 우려가 있지만 과도한 공포라고 주장. 구글이 자체칩(브로드컴 협업)을 쓰고 메타가 구글 칩 도입을 검토한다는 보도로 엔비디아 주가가 하락했으나, 빅테크는 과거에도 자체칩을 만들다 결국 엔비디아로 돌아왔다고 설명. 구글 매도 실수를 언급하며 엔비디아를 '팔지 말고 보유하라'고 권고. 회계 부정 논란 등은 근거 없다고 일축.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. For all we know, this may be the beginning of the end of Nvidia's AI dominance. I feel the exact same way about Nvidia, and I've been thinking about this non-stop since they reported. So, why not just dump Nvidia if you can't take the pain? All right, I play with an open hand for my trust. So, I I want to explain why I won't give up on this one.

02. I want to explain why I say own, don't trade the stock of Nvidia. First, it's possible that Nvidia supremacy in AI is coming to an end. I have been thinking about Nvidia constantly since their report, and I feel exactly the same way about them. If you can't handle the discomfort, why not just dump Nvidia?

03. Okay, for my trust, I play with an open hand. So, I'd like to clarify why I'm not giving up. I would like to clarify why I advocate owning Nvidia stock rather than trading it. First, what Cramer is going to share in this video has the potential to either completely destroy or double your retirement money.

04. According to Jim, this is what sets millionaires apart from everyone else. Await his next statement, as that may be the true reason why Nvidia could still 10x. And let me share with you the one statement Cramer made that completely transforms Nvidia. You can either trust Jensen Huang and Nvidia, or you can simply buy some utility and pharmaceutical stocks.

05. And what do you know? Why don't you simply go purchase some rails? Everyone on board. If you don't believe these AI stories, no one forces you to purchase the so-called hyper scale. Look at this, the entire world of investing. You can buy any of these stocks. You don't have to worry about these things.

06. Welcome to the kind of zero-sum investing thinking that has prevented people from living in dread and earning millions and millions of dollars. They only know to purchase when equities are rising and sell when they are falling, which is an awful approach if it is a plan at all. You either stay away from AI, or you believe in it.

07. This is the current state of the entire stock market. It's essentially a battle between proponents and opponents of AI. Here's what Cramer isn't making clear, though. Nvidia is more than just a manufacturer of AI chips. It serves as the foundation for the entire AI revolution. But hold on, because Cramer is going to expose the error that 90% of Nvidia investors are currently making.

08. If you don't trust something enough to buy more on weakness, you should never buy it. These days, the key to profiting from stocks is trust. Like any other day, the Dow soared 664 points. Have faith. The S&P saw a 0.91% increase. Have faith. The Nasdaq then experienced a 0.67% gain. If you don't trust, you won't be able to reap these benefits.

09. However, you must be aware of the environment if you decide to own tech. Everyone in the Magnificent Seven should understand, for instance, that they weren't made great by making mistakes and skipping quarters. They didn't get to these high places by being passed over as vendors, because they're second or eighth, or by being tricked by other businesses.

10. People tend to forget about this part. Mag Seven businesses don't just happen. They rise because they control markets worth trillions of dollars. It wasn't by accident that Nvidia reached a $4 trillion valuation. They succeeded because their technology is required by every single AI model, data center, robot, and self-driving car.

11. And in a second, Cramer exposes Nvidia's real threat, but it's not the one you think. The contraposition between Nvidia and Alphabet. With Alphabet de-emphasizing Nvidia's chips by relying on its own chips made by Broadcom, those chips are supposed to be so good that Meta, a competitor, is actually said to be contracting with Alphabet to get its hands on them.

12. Perhaps, so they can replace the same high-end semiconductors from Nvidia. Well, in this news, Nvidia stock has had the living daylights kicked out of it. Alphabet has been a huge client of Nvidia, and the press clips say that it's going to adopt its own chips far more than the ones owned by Nvidia.

13. Alphabet stock has been as hot as Nvidia stock is now ice cold. It got colder last night when a tech publication reported that Meta is willing to buy these same chips from Google at a considerable savings. Perhaps, there could be some licensed agreement that includes Broadcom, the general contractor for Google's chips.

14. As Broadcom CEO Hock Tan is on the board of Meta now, you could argue somewhat, Nvidia's got a ton of business. But Nvidia just reported what seemed like a bang-up quarter. Instead, well, guess what? The stock got banged up. Alphabet is using its own chips. Meta might follow. Guys, relax. This happens every cycle.

15. Here are some examples. Apple builds its own chips, didn't kill Qualcomm. Amazon builds its own chips, didn't kill Nvidia. Tesla builds Dojo, still needs Nvidia. Meta builds chips, still buys Nvidia. Every company tries to save money with custom chips, and then they always come back to Nvidia when performance matters.

16. But here's the twist. Cramer is about to admit something he rarely admits, and it proves why Nvidia still has massive upside. Let's add a few more indignities to the story of Nvidia. Meta jumped nearly 4% today because investors bought the stock hoping that these new chips from Google could lead to better gross margins for Meta.

17. That's another Mag 7 about to make a comeback as it benefits from not having to spend a lot of money with Nvidia. At least the critics say, now you could argue that all this is just inside baseball if it weren't for the fact that well, let's say a couple of other facts. First, the super large customer of Nvidia.

18. Another one is OpenAI, and that's been the subject of stories about a seemingly precarious balance sheet. Insult to injury, there are short sellers circulating what I regard as dubious condemnations that include linking Nvidia to companies with fraudulent accounting that amounted to criminal enterprise.

19. There are people saying that Nvidia is the next Enron, which I've got to tell you is categorically absurd. If you can't handle the discomfort, why not just dump Nvidia? Okay, for my trust, I play with an open hand. So, I'd like to clarify why I'm not giving up. I would like to clarify why I advocate owning Nvidia stock rather than trading it first.

20. Historically, it's been a bad idea to dump any of the Mag 7 out of fear. We sold Google for what we trusted was a considerable gain, but we left a darn double on the table. Jim sold Google too early, and he left a double on the table. That right there is the number one mistake Nvidia investors are about to repeat.

21. They buy fear, they sell panic, then they miss the explosion. I thought Google would be hobbled by antitrust woes and a judge who seemed bent on punishing it as a monopolist. Instead, the judge changed his mind and blessed the company, including the $20 payment to Apple to be the sole default search provider.

22. I thought Gemini, their AI product, would cannibalize Google's amazing search margins. No, it complemented them and enhanced them. The only reason I'm not kicking myself is we took our profits from Google and invested them in Broadcom, which has been a really outstanding performer. Still, it was a mistake to throw in the towel because of fear.

23. And what do you know? I feel the exact same way about Nvidia, and I've been thinking about this non-stop since they reported {dot} C, these near-term concerns. They've got some validity. Of course, I'm not denying them. So did the antitrust action against Google. They most certainly matter. Just like the possible cannibalization of Google by Gemini, it's possible that Nvidia supremacy in AI is coming to an end.

24. I just don't see it like that. Though {dot} with the exception of the bogus accounting charges that I won't even dignify with a response, I wish Nvidia had alluded to them either. I think their problems are not insurmountable. In fact, these remind me of the same problems I've heard all the way up from when I liked Nvidia and it was just a several hundred billion dollar enterprise instead of the four trillion dollars enterprise it is today.

25. I saw so many people leave the stock for so many other reasons that are just like these. That's why I say, own it. Don't trade it. Nvidia {dot} So, the bottom line, if you don't like Nvidia, you don't have to own it. Nobody's putting a gun to your head. But let me leave a little coda here because I'm kind of angry about this.

26. Here's your hat. What's your hurry? And don't let the door hit you on the way out of Nvidia.