"New Crises That Affect Everybody" - Chamath Palihapitiya Crypto Interview

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한 줄 결론: 2022년 시장은 CAPM 관점에서 금리 상승을 읽었다면 충분히 대응 가능했으며, 빅테크는 올해 가장 큰 손실 업종이었고 연준의 긴축 기조는 쉽게 꺾이지 않을 것이라는 진단. [CAPM과 2022년 시장] CAPM을 이해했다면 10년물 금리 상승과 기술주 변동성 확대를 보고 자금을 어디에 둘지 판단할 수 있었다고 주장. 방산·에너지·필수소비재 등 섹터별로는 각각 강세 구간이 있었음. [빅테크 손실과 향후 구조] 달러 기준 올해 최대 손실 업종은 빅테크. 원인은 세 가지: 전문투자자와 개인이 몰린 최대 혼잡 거래의 붕괴(하반기), 규제당국의 전방위 압박, 막대한 지출이 정당화되지 않으면서 혁신 사이클이 변화. [연준 전망] 파월 연준은 정치적·금융시장 압력에도 긴축 입장을 바꾸지 않았고, 금리를 예상보다 높이 올리고 더 오래 유지할 것이라는 기조. 인플레이션 잡기가 최우선이며 시장은 마지막 몇 이닝 단계라고 봄. 고금리 장기화 가능성을 전제로 한 판단. [핵융합 에너지] 핵융합은 정부(DARPA식) 투자가 적합하며, 민간 스타트업은 마지막 20~30%만 담당할 수 있다고 봄. 과도한 자본 배분에 우려. 줄·와트 구분 등 실용적 기준을 강조. [올해의 과학 성과] 영국에서 13세 소녀가 CRISPR 편집 T세포 치료로 난치성 백혈병이 검출 불가 수준으로 줄어든 사례를 올해 최대 과학적 돌파구로 꼽음. 인간 생명의 기대수익률은 무한대라는 주장. [SNS 기능] 인스타그램 등이 좋아요를 축소한 반면, 조회수 지표는 게시물의 외부 소셜 반응을 더 세밀하게 보여주는 방향으로 가고 있다는 언급. [투자 함의] 금리 고점 장기화, 빅테크 밸류에이션 조정 지속, 혁신 투자의 선별화가 핵심 리스크로 제시됨. 개별 종목 목표가나 방향 지정 발언은 거의 없음.

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01. and you know said in a different way it's sort of my background which is you know if you understood the capital asset pricing model you would have been a massive bear and the bear got fed this year to a degree that none of us could have anticipated any single person that understands the following formula so if you this is the this is so good this is the this is the capital asset pricing model so what is this this is like before you make any investment what it actually tells you is here's the rate of return that you need to generate above the risk-free rate in order for you to justify making that investment and if you really understood the capital asset pricing model going into 2022 it would have been difficult for you to not make money because all of a sudden as the 10-year flexed up and as you know the volatility particularly of things like tech stocks went crazy you could have figured out where you to park your money and all these people that have built businesses around this Capital asset pricing model so you have companies obviously so you know you have sectors of the economy like defense or energy stocks consumer goods and Staples they all had moments where they all did well but if you take it one step above the organizations that actually ran big macro books or really understood how to algorithmically implement this Capital asset pricing model just ran roughshod over the markets and you know said in a different way it's sort of my background which is you know if you understood the capital asset pricing model you would have been a massive bear and the bear got fed this year to a degree that none of us could have anticipated a percentage basis David absolutely nailed it sax absolutely nailed it on a dollar basis the biggest business loser of this year was big Tech and I think that you saw three things happen which I think are important for the future the first was it was the most crowded trade both by professional money managers as well as retail and that fever finally broke in the last half of uh in the second half of this year and now going into into these last few weeks you're seeing a lot of panicked selling to cover losses and other things so I think that um number one that happened number two Regulators basically said we're going to go after these guys every single which way we can and then number three I think it started to change the Innovation cycle where people now actually believe that they can't outspend because folks won't tolerate it and the things that they're spending their money on seem kind of foolish and so I think the you know big Tech is probably not discussed enough but it was a huge loser for this year for a handful of scenes in season one and season two which I would say are unbelievably psychologically violent hmm and there's just no other way to describe like how they just Expo and and by the way they do it with simple shots very simple dialogue it's almost nonchalant in the way that they present these truth bombs and you have to sit there and process it and you're just like oh my God it's just it's wave after wave it's an incredible incredibly well written show I remember in season Once sax will remember this because sacks watched it season one the family is sitting at the table where they're watching the Hawaiian dance and Paula the guest of the family gets up and leaves she can't take it anymore and then the next day they're in a discussion about it and the father says something about I think hierarchy or imperialism or something and it goes around the table and she just deadpan she says well maybe it's just time for others to eat talking about you know like fixing these wrongs and I had to listen to it two or three times I'm like oh my God that is that is a lie that just say it's uh Jerome Powell and the fed and their staunch hawkishness on inflation I think everybody wants all of this to be over and I think we're definitely in the last few Innings of it but I think what was surprising was how consistent and how hawkish and how bearish Jerome Powell was every chance he got he didn't capitulate or waver from the key message which he was saying from the beginning which is we have the tools to fix a broken economy but we don't have the tools to fix runaway inflation and so we will raise rates higher than anyone expects and keep them there longer than anybody wants because on the back end of it we can fix a few broken bones but if left unchecked this could really do a lot of damage and I think that that was an enormous surprise that all the political pressure in the world all of the financial Capital markets pressure in the world did nothing to change his position let me uh let me further clarify what I said last week and why it's important if Nick can you bring up the capital asset pricing model again the most important thing for me is to make sure that we don't misallocate human capital into Endeavors that I think are best left for research institutions funded by the government and I think when you look at a capital asset pricing model and try to build one out for Fusion as an example the expected rate of return that you need to get from this is just astronomically High because of the beta of that investment risk and the market risk premium you have to generate and so you know from my perspective I think that there are probably four or five labs in the world that are capable of actually getting us to a positive energy equation I think Friedberg I really thank you for actually saying that it wasn't a breakthrough in more of a milestone I think the real breakthrough is when we have positive not just Jewels but we actually convert that into electrical energy right and we actually talk about power and watts and I think that most people listening probably don't even understand the difference between Jules and Watts or don't even care and they want to jump around here or there so the point is that there's an enormous path we need to take in physics and I think it's best done in governments and I don't want to see a bunch of billions of dollars get wasted to get to to get marginal cost of energy to zero right now I think there is a point in time where private startups can take the the last 20 or 30 percent but I think about this like the internet which is you needed DARPA to build V1 and then it could be handed over to Private Industry and I think Fusion when we look back will look very similar and all the folks that try to build you know versions of the internet that were private I think found themselves lagging because there's just a level of investment that's required that's best served in government so anyways that's let's clarify that for all the for all the folks who got their panties but in any event my science breakthrough of the year is that there was a 13 year old girl this was you know because of all of this Fusion stuff actually we didn't even get to cover it because it happened in the same week and I think this is infinitely more impressive and is an actual breakthrough which is a 13 year old girl in the United Kingdom who had a heretofore uncurable form of leukemia T-cell acute lymphoblastic leukemia so typically you start in chemotherapy if chemotherapy doesn't work you move to bone marrow transplants and it was uncurable and a lab in the UK basically using crispr edited these transplant T cells to go in and wipe out her cancer and now her cancer is literally undetectable now if you bring up that Capital asset pricing model again Nick what I'll tell you is the rate of return on a human life in my opinion is infinite and so here is an unbelievable breakthrough that got very little attention because everybody was wrapped around the axial effusion it happened in the same week so maybe it's understandable I didn't understand it but I think this is the single most important thing that happened in science not just this year but frankly in the last decade because if you can actually now do base editing and eradicate at least in this case a blood-based Cancer and eventually we'll be able to bring that and use that towards solid-state tumor cancers it's a huge breakthrough in in just human longevity and human quality of life and that happened just a few weeks ago so interesting about the views feature is that a bunch of websites I think it started because Instagram did a bunch of apps deprecated you know likes because they felt that it was too it was part of this negative cycle and so they took all this stuff away and basically views is going sort of back in that direction and giving more granularity in terms of outside in social engagement on a post which is I think interesting to see it's happening in a moment where all these other sites and apps are actually going in the opposite direction