저자: ChamathPalihapitiya-제목기준출연자,소속추정 · 외국인
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결론: 비트코인 매수 권유 발언이 제목에 있으나 본문 자막에서는 비트코인 가격 방향 예측이 명확히 나오지 않음. 우주산업: 릴러티비티 스페이스(Relativity Space)에 투자 중이며 3D 프린팅 로켓으로 1월 셋째 주 발사 예정, 100억 달러 규모 수주잔고 언급. 스페이스X가 독보적 발사 능력을 보유한다고 평가. 벤처 투자 시장: 투자한 딜 4건은 깨끗한 마크업이었으나, 전환사채(convert)로 제시된 고평가 기업 7곳은 전부 참여하지 않음. 실제 시장가격은 80~90% 하락 수준이라 판단하며 성장주 전반의 어려움이 2~3년 지속될 수 있다고 우려. 전환사채 구조는 보통주주에게 불리하다고 지적. 검색 산업: 구글 검색이 올해 가장 큰 사업 손실 위험. 구글 사용량이 10~15% 감소할 수 있다고 추정. 학습 데이터 측면에서 여러 기업이 경쟁 가능하다고 봄. 위성 통신: 스타링크가 항공기 광대역 통신에서 기존 Ka 밴드 대비 훨씬 우월하며 비용도 1/10 수준. 스타링크 상장 가능성 언급. 틱톡: 네트워크 효과가 약해 틱톡이 사라져도 콘텐츠는 유튜브 쇼츠 등으로 이동 가능, 중요성이 크지 않다고 봄. 인플레이션: 2021년 에너지, 2022년 상품 인플레이션에 이어 임금 인플레이션이 3단계 진행 중. 노동 참여율 저하와 노조 확산으로 인플레이션이 급락하지 않고 지속될 것이라는 역발상 전망. 리스크는 실업률 상승 시 정책 변화 가능성. 비트코인: 제목상 'Run Hard To Buy Bitcoin' 메시지가 있으나 본문 자막 범위에서는 1~3개월 가격 방향 예측이 확인되지 않음.
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think I'm the only non-trivially large investor in both SpaceX and relativity space relativity space has a huge SpaceX has clearly just crushing on all cylinders and they're really the only game in town with respect to launched capability and if you just Google it you'll see that the Europeans you know have a hit or miss capability and launch the Russians are completely unable to do launch now because of all of these sanctions the private companies in New Zealand or the United States have also had fits and starts really incapable relativity which is really which is now the second most highly valued space business is about to do a launch in the third week of January and the big difference between it and SpaceX which is sort of why we did it this is a early YC company I did the series a and kind of went along the whole way they have 3D printed everything and the reason why 3D printing is interesting is you take a so if you if you think a rocket costs five billion dollars if built by NASA Elon was able to take that to a hundred to five hundred million and if you 3D print everything you can take that cost to like five to fifty million and so it allows you to just have this repeatability and manufacturability now SpaceX also has a lot of 3D printed Parts but relativity is entirely 3D printed it has a launch in three weeks at Cape Canaveral I think and we have like a 10 billion dollar order book that gets unlocked so I don't know how to see beyond a lot of these Market forecasts right now so I'd rather pick a company I'll pick something in my portfolio if the rocket does not blow up there's a 10 billion dollar order book and this company is now on a trajectory to be as valued as SpaceX at the end of Q4 I did five deals and forward Pro ratas one was a new deal and they were all clean markups so the four deals that other people put money into and I was looking at them and I was trying to figure out okay what differentiates these things in Freebird to your point these were super clean startups with very clean cap tables that had clear progress and then conversely I had seven converts showed to me for companies whose valuations were anywhere between three and I would say 12 billion and I did none of them and not only did I do none of them nobody else did any of them and the problem was the real market clearing price was 80 to 90 percent down and so I was like what is going on here so fever to your point I don't even think it's just cash intensive startups I think it's like all growth companies are in a really bad place I thought that this growth stuff would get sorted out in two to three months and now I'm worried it's two to three years I think it's I think all these converts are getting done that's where the rubber meets the road on all these deals yeah that's right who does the convert benefit the convert benefits the VCS who want to maintain the illusory valuation that they had before they do that to assuage The Limited partner who gave the money that the marks aren't as bad as they thought but the people that really get screwed as Jason said are the common shareholders because eventually those convert deals that do get done those people will end up owning the company the cap table gets completely flushed and reset and the employees get wiped up or get [ __ ] and the people don't do none of the work and who just want to maintain this shell game gets to basically Live Another Day my biggest business loser yes please I think that the biggest potential business loser this year is Google search as measured by pure profitability and engagement I think it's easier for me to see where the the usage comes from as opposed to picking open AI or chat GPT in terms of where the usage goes to and the reason is because I think a lot of people don't still fully understand how machine learning and AI work but just 30 second primer there's two big buckets of work there's what's called learning which is how you learn how to make predictions and then there's what's called inference which is when you actually type something into the search box you get the answer the thing with learning and what chat GPT is showing is that they have learned by crawling the entirety of the web there are five or six other organizations that are capable of crawling the entire web in terms of cost in terms of compute in terms of the quality of the Transformers and the quality of the AI and so I find it easier to predict the decay in the quality of Google search as that much better than everybody else than I find it is to predict who will win because I think that with enough time and money Oracle Microsoft Google the Chinese internet companies can all compete Facebook and so I think that you'll Converge on the same training which will lead to the same inference and so I think consumers end up getting confused and will end up being able to get high quality search results from many places versus today you know you wouldn't only think that Google is the only game in town quite honestly for most people well so I think the statistics show that Google could lose 10 or 15 percent of usage to all these other sites and that may not make any of those sites that relevant but it'll have a material measurable impact to Google and Google fantastic the Best in Class broadband connection for a plane is called Ka band and it costs 500 Grand a year that's ridiculous and you can replace it for you know a tenth of the cost and starlink on a plane is dramatically better bi-directionally so I think starlink is going to go public and I think it's going to be it's going to be the best chance that we have of opening up the capital markets in 2015.
actually get everything that Tick Tock has on YouTube shorts so I don't think Tick Tock is that important because it is not actually there is no sticky Network effect inside that app so there isn't usage that's dependent on people you know or a graph that you build it's a lot of passively consumed content and so you know you're you're getting pushed a lot of algorithm algorithmically defined content you can do that on YouTube and so I actually don't think it's that meaningfully important if tick tock goes away I think the content creator stayed it's harder for them to build a business on YouTube shorts but if you look at the and measure the density of content inside Tick Tock it exists almost one to one on YouTube side there then I think people would have a reason to complain to somebody whether it's your representative or whether it's somebody else to say hey don't do this this would have a deleterious impact on my quality of life or my quality of experience and you could make that clear claim on Instagram Facebook you know Google YouTube but Tick Tock is is much more brittle that way and that's why they need to get public sooner and monetize this bloody thing because I think that it's very easy actually to deconstruct tick tock's value into these other places the actions is a great example where he actually got banned by Tick Tock and then Diversified on his own and now what he does is he publishes across multiple streams and if you look at all the big creators they all do that because it makes no sense to actually give the power to any one of these things why have to go and pick that inflation which people expect to fall off a cliff doesn't fall off a cliff as fast or as meaningfully as people want and so I will explain inflation as three different chapters and we've seen the first two chapters play out so 2021 chapter one was all about energy inflation and you know we all talked about having almost ten dollar gas at the pump and what does it mean for everybody and it caused that initial Spike in inflation and then we had it come off and sax called this he said you know we're going to have this sort of double hump and 2022 was really the story of goods inflation right all these prices and all of these things went up because the input costs went up and we all had to Bear the implications of that but then that started to ebb and now if you looked at the tail end of 2022 what I found super interesting was the number of articles I saw about wage inflation whether that was Biden using an 1800s era law to prevent a Railroad Strike the number of states that increased minimum wage the trend around unionization so in general my thought is that the pendulum is swinging very markedly away from capital and towards labor and as the labor participation rate stays low and continues to go down and also it's compounded by an unemployment rate that may go up right people are it's going to be harder and harder to get people to do the work you need at the company you have unless you pay them more and if that gets exaggerated then inflation will stay where it is it won't be as muted and it won't fall off a cliff as people want it'll be persistent that's my big contrarian got it wager for this year is that we that is quite experience we see wage inflation that keeps inflation not going down as much as people want this is contrary
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