저자: TomLee · 외국인
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대선 불확실성으로 시장 공포가 정점에 달할 수 있으며 결과 확정 전 고점일 가능성 제기. 설문에서 76%가 선거 당일 승자 미확정, 43%가 1주 후 확정 예상. 선거 결과와 무관하게 연말 랠리 기대, 실업·인플레 데이터 이후 Fed 비둘기파, 실적 시즌 양호. 버크셔의 대규모 현금 보유는 자본이득세 변화 대비 및 향후 자금 배치 여력으로 해석.
다듬은 글
how's it going everyone it's Sam this is the week this is the week that everyone has seemed to be waiting for recently Tom Lee actually just went on CNBC and talked about the election talked about what he's going to do depending on who becomes president and talked about Warren Buffett's massive stockpile of cash that just was announced now Marx where you can place Longs you can short the market you can do whatever you want you can trade this Market on there's no kyc and you don't need a VPN we've been setting higher lows each month at the beginning of the month like in the first week and higher highs later in the month so if you want to trade this Market there's a link to this underneath the video let's get into the clip and uh I do want to thank Roto for sponsoring this video but we'll get to them later Following last week's inflation and jobs data uh it's an interesting time to get some perspective from our next guest Tom Lee says be prepared for volatility Tom was uh managing partner and head of research at fund Strat Global advisors as well as a CNBC uh contributor would you say towards last time you were on you talked about the Trump trade being pretty strong um a lot of things turned back reversed uh djt reversed Bitcoin didn't hold the didn't move into the mid 70s got in the low 7s I don't know whether the banks and other Trump CR change and all the betting markets certainly moderated late last week came back a little bit do you think you have a change in in your opinion on the election now um well it does seem like over the last four or five days the the election really narrowed when you look at betting markets or the polls and I know a lot of people don't necessarily trust polls but I think the quality and the adjustments of the polls have made them more accurate so I think it it is really a tossup and it's it's going to be a a very close election and something our clients are preparing for because we did a survey last week 76% don't think we'll have a winner declared election night and 43% roughly expected one week after so I think markets are kind of bracing for this period of uncertainty I think that's why many of the trades have reversed we've also heard about some of the trading houses that are not going to be putting any software updates in this week even um some people who want to be here rather than overseas to make sure they're closer on the ground to see what happens too yeah so I think it's going to be a week where there's going to be a lot of worry um one thing I'm I was thinking about over the weekend though is I think the Market's fear of uncertainty will Peak before it's very likely it Peaks before the election outcome is actually decided these signals that we've been looking at one of the things I don't know if you read about it and I think we talked about it maybe during commercial break last week one of the one of the things that's happened in the polls is the view that there's a lot more women going going to to vote them before but that these signals whether it be Bitcoin or whether it be djt stock or whether it be the betting markets may also all be off if this is true on the on the assumption that actually there are are is a very small percentage of the people in the betting markets were women for example there's a very small percentage of people who are women who actually trade in Bitcoin not who own Bitcoin but who trade in Bitcoin uh very uh small group of women who are trading in djt stock what do you think of that uh I think there's some Credence to that just because we know like when you look at the Iowa polls it was really the senior Women Voters that changed a lot and uh you're right these markets can be narrow um and they're very responsive to to changes in liquidity and it is I think it's a very tight race I mean it's it's going to be very close I think anyone who thinks that they know who's going to win is is is really playing with fate because I think it's a very tight race yeah it's interesting from uh when you when polls Clos too because we've got I mean there's a couple here Pennsylvania North Carolina and Georgia are are all East Coast so you know if you have some definitive answers there also you know supposedly Virginia and New Hampshire are are closer than people uh in the Harris Camp would like so there there could be surprises early on just wonder how long it takes when you have so many more people who have voted early or mailing vot votes too those take longer to tally so I mean you might just by default yeah I I actually voted last week and it it was there were I actually had to wait there a lot of people I mean turnout is really what's going to swing this election so we got past some of Tom Lee's thoughts on the election and next they ask him okay what would you do then right now like are are you just going to sit out if a certain president uh gets voted in are you going to keep on investing what do you think about Warren Buffett's massive stockpile of cash that just got announced over the weekend but first a word from today's show sponsor okay now I have a really exciting announcement uh I've talked about Roto for years and now they're going to be the first gamble FY project to double list on Mexi and bitmart gamble fi Pioneer is about to get exposure to4 million plus users globally and this is taking place on November 6 now if you don't know what Roto is it's gamble FY infrastructure it's a place where Casino ownership is decentralized this is open source and everyone can build onchain casino games this is really cool because instead of fighting the house you can actually become the house and the house always wins it seems keep in mind they're going to have a ton of onchain games based on Roto uh they're also going to have a utility boost a buyback and burn they're going to have Integrations of new tokens they're going to have open bankroll to become the house this is going to be really exciting and I'm really excited to see what R Doo does they've been a longtime partner of the channel and I'm really excited to see what happens next I'm going to leave links to them underneath the video to learn more other than the El cuz the elections once that's some that's sort of what you hear about Wall Street elections don't really matter anyway so if it is gridlock which we don't know but more likely I think the odds are on that too so you're still bullish yeah I'm I I I'm bullish only in the sense that election uncertainty has caused people to drisk and cash to sit on the sidelines but the fundamentals have been good earning season's been very good the FED is dovish and I I don't think it's going to matter who ends up in the White House even if it's split Congress or a sweep I think markets do pretty well either way so it sets up for a really good rally into year end but when it starts in November is just what we don't know no so when you look at what we were talking about what Buffett's thinking with apple or what you thinking with bank I mean that's that you take apple and a leading financial and that covers a pretty big range of of uh the markets and he Andrew thinks he's building an arc could you really it wouldn't work there's too many species to bring on there with a I don't I'm just saying he's building a a cash Arc cash an arc out of cash or something or is that what he's doing he may be doing something else I don't know yeah I mean I know part of it is he's anticipating capital gains taxes could change so he's taking those gains now but but and he's not necessarily having a big cost of money CU he's earning 5% but next year you know the cost of money is going to drop so he he'll have some pressure to deploy it now of course Tom Le's talking about berkshire's massive stockpile of cash that got announced over the weekend now they have about $325 billion which is you know 35% of their market cap and a lot of people are wondering why this is keep in mind that they do have some businesses that require more cash they always keep around you know for the last 5 or 10 years they've kept around 100 to 150 billion in cash but recently they have been I'd say that they have been uh stocking up a little bit more obviously during covid when they saw some stimulus come in looks like they dumped some money into the market when there were were cheap prices but now obviously they have been storing up cash a little bit more now I do think it's important to listen to Tom Le at the end there you know no matter what he's going to still be investing you know whoever the president is the Market's still going to do well right most likely um so think long term right this is an exciting week this is a big week for markets everyone's going to be watching but try not to get too down or too excited either I guess try not to get too emotional in general as you can see Bitcoin has been doing really well setting higher lows and higher highs also it's dumped towards the beginning of each month and then rallied the rest of the month so if you want to trade there is this link to Marx underneath the video where maybe you want to Long the market tomorrow because you hear a certain person's in the lead or maybe you want to short the market because you think that the Market's going to fall down because of who's in the lead who knows um but there is a link to Marx underneath the video it is a bit quiet right now the market is quiet of course there's a little bit of volatility with Bitcoin over the weekend but honestly not as much as I would have expected um yeah there's just not a lot of news to start the week but of course we do have the FED meeting later this week we do have uh the elections everyone is going to have a lot of thoughts I'm sure on the elections and the results and what this means for the economy for the stock market for crypto on Tuesday night Wednesday so be ready have your tap dancing shoes on uh I think it's going to be an exciting week and keep in mind we do have a lot of earnings this week as well uh we don't have many of the major tech companies because a lot of them announced last week but we do have some of the more midsized companies like paler right large company but not close to Apple or birkshire or anything like that so be on the lookout for those earnings later this week thank you so much for watching this uh let me know your thoughts again there are links to Roto underneath the video as well I'll see you all in the next one bye for
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