저자: TomLee · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 비트코인은 6,000달러 지지가 확인되며 연말까지 반등 촉매가 있다는 낙관론이다. 비트코인 차트: 6,000달러 수준에서 여러 차례 반등했고 저점은 유지되나 고점은 낮아지는 중. Tom Lee는 6,000달러를 비트코인 채굴 손익분기(약 1배 장부가)로 보고 이 지지가 유효하다고 판단. 촉매: 규제된 신규 거래소 ICE 출시가 예정되어 있고, 주요 투자은행들이 이를 지원하거나 연계된 상품을 준비 중이라고 설명. 골드만삭스의 암호화폐 진출 관련 발표 번복 논란은 내부 속도 차이로 해석. 기관 수요: 비트코인이 오르면 기관 투자자들이 FOMO로 참여할 것이라고 봄. 시장 과열 여부: 대마(Tilray) 등 대마주와 암호화폐의 동조 움직임은 투기적 위험 선호의 신호로 보며, 시장 전체로는 9년간 큰 상승 후의 안일함(complacency)이 있다고 평가. 금리 상승 시 가치주 대비가 필요하다고 언급. 상관관계: 비트코인은 채권·주식 대비 저상관 자산이라 알파 원천이 될 수 있다고 주장. 다만 규제 명확성이 있는 코인 중심으로 접근해야 하며, 비트코인이 가장 큰 커뮤니티와 사용처를 가진다고 평가. 결제 수단으로서도 쓸 만하다고 언급.
다듬은 글
look at the Bitcoin chart yeah and you've been bullish on crypto for a while so that's why we're talking about this with you we've hit this like 6,000 level numerous times and each time we've bounced back but we keep having lower highs off the bounce back so when you look at that chart of lower highs but the same floor what do you see it looks like it's dying right just kidding what that tells me is that the 6,000 level is a level that's more important than we realized and I you know earlier this year we we were pointing out six thousands the break-even for Bitcoin mining so that level should hold cuz that's roughly one Times Book and so I think the fact that it's holding here is actually very good news and I think there's catalyst into year-end so I think despite the lower highs we've seen I think we're starting to reverse so if you say signs of momentum that's really good what kind of catalyst securin I think there's a few I mean one this this new exchange called ice backed will be launched it's it's gonna be really one of the first really good regulated exchanges but I think around that there's a constellation of work being done by these major investment banks to build products that either support it or be in conjunction or work with it so I think one institutions are ready to get involved really but we keep hearing that Berkeley status then main crypto banker this week we've seen Goldman Sachs walk away from that statement and they were going to get into the space yeah I mean I'm not sure Goldman's statement that they actually is what happened but not as a new thing that they're still building out the team or they're just they never actually were going in it quite hook line and sinker isms made out yeah I think that they have their own pace of how they're moving forward and then I think the public has views that it's way ahead or behind and I think that's what's being calibrated but I think they're marching steadily forward I do think major institutions get FOMO if Bitcoin Rises because remember you're not you need to find volatility like institutional investors won't fall and today you can buy ball in crypto and it can segment and pot and actually as you guys say that it's interesting how over the tilray peak coincide with bitcoins intraday low i noticed that at the same time that they basically flip to the exact so I don't know if it was like on Robin Hood and you could like put on a pair trade they're like so BDC buy but clearly yes well okay this interplay between pot stocks and crypto currencies is this concerning to you a lot of people look at it and say that these are signs we're late in the market cycle there's a lot of excesses what's the pushback I think there's always speculation I mean that's the nature of markets and I fought them for 25 years so I don't think it's unhealthy that there is speculation it's it's actually good sign because that's a risk appetite I think it probably shows that managers in a narrow stock market want to try to find alpha where they can and cannabis is a new emerging area and crypto is another and look there's a lot of money I mean crypto is only a two hundred billion dollar market cap I don't know the size of the cannabis market but you compare it to you know 70 trillion for traditional markets and you can see why there's a chance for all goods yes overall though do you see signs of exuberance or is it just sort of local pockets here and there for the equity markets overall i think there's complacency right cuz because now we have 9 years of really good gains people made a lot of money and I think the complacency today is that growth stocks have made everybody all the money remember if you own Facebook you were that's all you had to do I think the big shift is if interest rates rise that you need to be in position for value so it's interest rates is not trade yes I think trade is is noise and it's been trades obviously very good for the US right now what's the least correlated asset up there right now hmm today crypto is still a low correlation asset it's even a low correlation against bonds and equities so if someone is trying to generate alpha that is a place to find it like it's still sorry but it still needs to go up yeah I said it's uncorrelated but right you don't want it to correlation to go down because everything's going on right I think it's just Oh huh I'm which crepitus well I think you got to stick with ones that have real regulatory clarity so at the moment it really is primarily Bitcoin and Bitcoin has the largest community and it has the most use cases and it's proven to be a good source of money as well even though even though crypt is not really money it's turning out to be a decent means of exchange
Comments 0