저자: TomLee · 외국인
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결론: 암호화폐는 밀레니얼 세대 주도의 수십 년짜리 성장 구간에 있으며, 지금의 약세장은 매수 기회다. [약세장과 매수 관점] 비트코인은 당시 약 68% 하락 상태였고, 하락 후 반등은 소수의 최고 상승일에 집중되므로 시장 이탈은 불리하다고 주장. 연간 수익의 대부분이 상위 10일에서 나온다는 데이터를 근거로 제시. [은행 불신과 탈중앙화 수요] 미국 신뢰도는 60년 최저, 상위 5개 은행이 자산 절반을 장악, 은행 이익의 GDP 비중은 1972년 이후 두 배로 증가. 은행이 과도하게 집중되어 기술 기반 파괴의 대상이라고 평가. [밀레니얼 세대 자금 흐름] 밀레니얼 92%가 은행을 불신한다는 설문을 인용. 2029년경 미국 소득의 다수를 밀레니얼이 차지할 것이며, 2020년 약 7조 달러 금융자산 중 일부가 디지털 자산으로 이동할 수 있다고 전망. [시장 규모 추정] 네이티브 디지털 자산의 접근 가능 시장은 연 약 5조 달러. 밀레니얼 자산의 10%가 크립토로 유입되면 시가총액 약 14조 달러 증가 가능성을 언급(멀티포인트캐피털 추정 배수 20~25배 인용). [월가 참여] ICE의 비트코인 현물 거래소(Bakkt) 발표를 월가 참여 신호로 해석. 크립토 기업 2곳이 연간 순이익 10억 달러 규모라는 점도 언급. [승자 선별 프레임] 인터넷 FANG 사례처럼 거대 트렌드에 베팅하면 개별 기업 판단 없이도 수익이 가능하다고 주장. 비트코인은 9년간 무패 자산이므로 장기 승자로 평가하며, 크립토 FANG 후보 플랫폼이 이미 1~2개 나타났다고 봄. [리스크] 향후 논쟁은 특정 이론(승자 판별)과 가격 변동성에 집중될 것이라는 언급으로 마무리. 구체적 목표가는 제시되지 않음.
다듬은 글
thank you welcome everyone I'm glad to be giving you guys a presentation about crypto currencies my presentations gonna be about 25 minutes and I'm gonna cover a few topics for most I really want to talk about what is the secular force driving this future and digital assets because we're quite bullish on it the second is I'll spend a few minutes talking about the bear market we're in it and why I think it's a mistake for investors and holders and those interested in working on projects to really give up here when crypto is already down and the third topic is thinking about what it really means to identify winners and losers in crypto and introduce this idea that there is a crypto Fang coming together and I think we've already picked one or two platforms that could actually be this sort of crypto thing so before I pull up my presentation I want to give you a little background of myself because I think there's a lot of folks who may think of me as someone who you know speaks about markets or about crypto and I'm I've been covering or doing research since 1993 so prior to funding funds founding fund strat four years ago I was the chief equity strategist for JPMorgan and that's a firm I had been at since youth since 1999 but even before that I was a tech analyst I covered Wireless and service providers starting in 93 right after I graduated from Wharton and I was started working at a firm called Kidder Peabody now in 1993 Wireless was actually a brand-new technology okay there were only 34 million cellular customers in 1993 there's 40 4.5 billion today so it's been more than a hundred x but in 1993 I was covering Wireless because it was considered a somewhat marginally important sector in fact my counterparts at fidelity for instance was the same guy that covered trucking stocks and retailers and typically he was right out of college and the reason people didn't think much of wireless I means obvious today that Wireless is huge but the reason people didn't think of much of it back then was the average money manager was in his 40s and to him cellular phones looked like an expensive toy in fact they were called yuppie toys you know the criticism was look cell phones are expensive they're staticky they don't do much in fact all you could do was place calls but more importantly they thought cellular phones were essentially going to become free because in their minds the most important business was Telecom you know everybody wanted to be a long distance company or a local exchange company or Enterprise and cellular was actually a way to defend those businesses me being twenty years old and covering Wireless and I was very fortunate to actually be given a sector so young I saw it as a huge quantum leap in utility and I think that gave me a big advantage in fact during the more than fourteen years covering Wireless I was ranked number one two or three by institutional investor every year so I feel very fortunate to have been given a sector at that time but it really sets us up I think to understand what's happening with crypto because to me Wireless and the Internet in the 90s was very much a generational change that people 20 years older than me didn't simply just didn't understand and I think that's the same thing that's happening with digital assets in blockchain today and this is a chart showing Bitcoin dominance what it represents is bitcoins share of market cap and if you squint you can see it started the year at 36% and it's risen actually the time I sent this to chain exchange it was 49 but now it's around 53 percent now this is something that we actually predict at the start of the year one of our forecasts for 2018 was Bitcoin dominance would actually rise this year but the reason it's rising is a couple of reasons one is we have a bear market in crypto and you've all witnessed it's whether you're holding Bitcoin and you're down you know 68 percent or so holding some results that are down even more but the question you have to ask yourselves is now that crypto is down here is it appropriate to be bullish or bearish and I want to just absolutely point out it is a mistake to be bearish when you're already down this is like looking at stocks in December 2008 and deciding that you wanted to become secularly bearish even though the bear market was ending so I think that bear market is largely run its course in crypto and it's been healthy right it's been a resetting capital it's resetting it investor expectations but most importantly the only time you can really make money in a big way is to buy when investors aren't buying that's the real opportunity and I just want to jump to the next chart to highlight this this is slide number 9 for those who are following and this is showing you that Kryptos returns or bitcoins returns in any year just come from 10 days so in other words if you don't own Bitcoin and you miss out on the 10 best days in Bitcoin in any year you've actually been down 25% of your on average on the other hand the top ten days for Bitcoin in any year averaged 500% so again I think it makes sense to just be hot allure a Hodler impatient but I think in some ways I think the fact that Bitcoin dominance is rising is really proving that bitcoin is probably the first thing of the Millennial crypto Fang so let me start jump into a discussion about why I think crypto has a long tail and why we're talking about a multi-decade gain and the first thing to point out is I think this is coming from the fact that banks today are really becoming the epitome of over centralization or they become too powerful let's start with a look at trust this is from the Pew Research Center and this is a measure of US citizens and their trust of governments and you can see Trust is at a 60-year low in the US never has trust been lower but it's not just the US across the x-axis is the growth rate of various economies and the y-axis is the level of and that red line represents the US as you can see trust across all crunchies is actually quite low and in fact the countries that are below this line such as Argentina Greece Brazil Poland these are the countries Australia these are the countries where crypto is actually prospering because it is about lack of trust of governments but what about banks well you know the top five banks in the u.s.
control half of all assets but that's not just the u.s. if you look at Finland Norway New Zealand South Africa the top three banks typically typically control three-quarters of assets in other words the banking industry is massively massively powerful and yet they don't treat their customers well this is a survey from creditcards.com and it shows that if if an American has some fraudulent activity in their bank account okay normally you know if this happened with Amazon Amazon would apologize to you well 60% of the time an American has to borrow money from somebody if they've had fraudulent acuity in their bank account so banks don't treat their customers well and in fact their share of global profits is rising this is a measure of the banking industry share of global GDP it's called value-added from the OECD and from 1972 now it's actually doubled so think about it in 40 years 45 years when technology is proliferated markets have proliferated in theory the cost of capital should be falling banks share profits globally is actually doubling and that's despite as you can see on the left side a secular decline in interest rates imagine how much money banks are gonna make when rates start rising so clearly banks are overly centralized and making too much money and it's really an industry that's ripe for disruption by technology and again it's clear today many technology companies treat banks as customers because banks are big big buyers attack but it's just a matter of time before the banking industry actually cease competition from technology and that's because more and more growth globally is native digital and we estimate it so I'm sorry this is hard to see that it's about a five trillion dollar opportunity so if you had to say what is the addressable market today for native digital asset and digital asset currencies it's about a five trillion dollar a year market okay but what's gonna power this I think the big story is that it's about Millennials and it's not just about American Millennials it's really about global Millennials but let's put this in perspective I've listed here every generation from 1900 so the first is the greatest generation those are the ones who fought World War two the Silent Generation those are the children of the Great Depression the baby boomers Gen X and then I highlighted in grey the Millennials the Millennials are the single largest generation ever in the United States there's about 20 million more Millennials than boomers and 30 million more Millennials than Gen X so it is larger than the two generations that have preceded it but what's interesting before I talk about moneyless is is I have a blue box on the right and I listed the year that each generation peaked but take a listen to these years 1930 1974 1999 and 2018 the first three represent within one year major turning points in the stock market right in 29 we had the crash 73 was the second major top in markets that's one year before that generation peaked and of course we have 1999 which is the year this S&P peaked in the internet bubble oddly I think that generations have actually also defined market tops but let's think about millenials Millennials number one just do not trust banks this is a Facebook survey 92% of Millennials don't trust banks let's say you don't believe the Facebook survey this is a survey from first data 71% of Millennials would rather go to the dentist then go to a bank and 33 percent believe banks won't exist in five years clearly Millennials hate banks why do they hate banks they hate banks because their parents lost their homes in the financial crisis and today as you can see generations are increasingly digital today 70% of Gen X and 68 percent of Millennials never visit bank branch they do all of their transactions online so to them native digital is something they're very comfortable with but their economic power is something I think most people don't understand today I've listed the share of income owned by each generation as a time series the dark blue area is Millennials as you can see that number is rapidly rising from today and the crossover is 2029 within ten years Millennials are going to control the majority of the wallet in the United States so think about it this way if you had to think about where money incrementally is being spent and who controls that it's the Millennial I'm going to skip a few slides here but I want to highlight something some data from Chase now Chase is a company I used to work for and this is showing you that when you look at credit card spending by Generation okay the red our Silent Generation and Greatest Generation the blue light blue the Boomers the gray is Gen X those generations actually have declining credit card spending the only generation consistently increasing credit card spend today are Millennials so in other words anything happening in the financial markets is really going to be about what Millennials do and in fact if you want to see this again in numbers from first data their estimate is that by 2020 Millennials will control about 7 trillion dollars of financial assets of which very small percentage is allocated to digital assets but here's just a thought what if 10% of that goes into native digital assets into crypto as you all know the multiplier for crypto estimated by Qasem Soleimani at multi point capital is about 20 to 25 times which implies almost a 14 trillion dollar increase in the market cap of the crypto space just from us Millennials allocating into crypto now again to appreciate how generations transform markets think about the gold market this is the top chart shows you the price of gold the bottom chart is the Silent Generation okay the number of people in the Silent Generation and I've lined it up the only time gold ever increased by 15 X within a 10 year period was from 1971 to 1979 now that did coincide with the u.s.
going off the gold standard but it was also the first time the Silent Generation had access to gold and again it peaked with the Silent Generation no other generation has expressed the same interest in owning gold remember Silent Generation were kids of the Great Depression their parents lost all their money in the stock market so they love gold but it's not just a US story 44 percent 43% of adults today are in the Millennial cohort as a highlight here so now this is not unusual you know 44 percent of the world's population generally is in this age group but unlike prior generations there's a very big difference in longevity Millennials are expected to live more than ten years longer than the equivalent boomer from this point going forward because of better health so the impact of this generation is much greater and so I want you to think about the broad numbers today there's about 50 million crypto wallets and let's say that 20 percent of Millennials get a crypto wallet globally that's 500 million crypto wallets that's a 10x increase in the number of users of crypto and I think that's conservative 20 percent slow because that means there's still going to be more Twitter users Beth by then then crypto wallets but because of the network value that's almost a hundred X increase in the crypto market valuation so again penetration of just the millennial generation is going to drive a lot of demand now I'm going to skip this really quick but by the way most of these Millennials are in Asia almost a billion are in India and China so this is very much an Asian phenomenon as well so now I want to just jump ahead and talk about Wall Street why Wall Street cares now I think probably the biggest proof of Wall Street cares is the announcement that came last week which is that ice is introducing something called backt which is a crypto currency exchange now we've written about it I don't want to spend too much time on here but this is a big deal because this is essentially creating a physically delivered spot market for Bitcoin but think about this quote from the CEO he says Millennials don't trust financial institutions to gain their trust banks and brokers and managers can use a currency that Millennials believe in like Bitcoin using digital currencies bring a lot of sizzle I mean this is a capitulation this is proof that that Wall Street is going to start to spend a lot of time and provide that infrastructure to really help crypto become mainstream why does Wall Street care well I'll just kind of fly through these really quick but Nance makes a billion dollars a year but it's not just banan's it means making a billion dollars a year so you already have two crypto companies producing a billion a year net income which ranks them in bonanza a net income basis would make them the third and fourth most profitable companies globally in financial institutions okay now the last thing I want to talk about is crypt is faying an understanding thing this is a time series showing you the number of Internet users from 1992 to 2017 okay and the year that each of these fan companies was started so Amazon was started when there were 7 million Internet users Facebook was the last when there were 580 million users here's an interesting fact if you didn't understand the business model of Fang but you just bought them based on the belief that Internet users would grow that explains 75% of the return of Fang from 1997 to now Fang was a fifteen hundred times returned a thousand dollars invested in 1997 is worth one point six million dollars today and you all you had to do is say oh hey there's this many Internet users I think it'll go to four billion you would have gotten this seventy five percent right so in other words it didn't matter that Fang was Facebook was about social media and Google was about advertising you just simply bought it based on what I call this secular trend by the way how long did it take to figure out if Fang was a winner versus the Internet 1.0 takes less than six years there's not a single fang company that was started six years more than six years after the company that had defeated just to give you an idea Facebook beat myspace within four years but before Fang there was consumer stocks in the 80s okay now just take a look at this chart see if you just said hey there's something happening in the 80s called malls and I just bought seven names like Home Depot Circuit City Walmart Limited Gap Dillard's you had 1200 X $1000 in nineteen nineteen eighty turned into 1.2 million by 1995 so before Fang there was consumer Fang and of course now we have crypto and I think the key here is Bitcoin has been around for nine years it has been undefeated so I think bitcoin is clearly a long term winner and I think the real debate today is gonna be around a theory
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