저자: MarcFaber · 외국인
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미국 경제가 2017년 내 붕괴 위험이 높다는 주장. 소매업 파산·폐점이 가속되고 있으며 이것이 경기 침체의 선행 신호라는 관점. 소매업 위기: 2017년 상반기에만 약 2,000개 매장 폐쇄가 발표됐고, 연말까지 8,600개 이상으로 늘 수 있다고 주장. Sears 파산 위험, Macy's·Nordstrom·JC Penney 등 매장 폐쇄 언급. 캐나다 Hudson's Bay 인력 감축과 폐점도 언급. 아마존의 Whole Foods 약 40억 달러 인수를 오프라인 유통 재편 사례로 제시하며, 고급 유통 브랜드 폐점이 쇼핑몰 수백 곳에 치명적일 수 있다고 봄. 연쇄 효과: 대형 소매점 소멸 → 유동인구 감소 → 소형 점포 및 주변 상권 붕괴 → 부동산 가격 하락 → 세수 감소. 디트로이트 자동차 산업 쇠락 사례를 근거로 듦. 정책·정치 리스크: 트럼프 행정부의 감세(5.5~7조 달러 세수 감소 추정), 1조 달러 인프라 투자, 국가부채 GDP 111%(2027년) 전망, 보호무역·NAFTA 재협상으로 인한 무역전쟁 가능성, 이민 제한에 따른 인력난 우려. 탄핵·러시아 게이트로 트럼프 리더십 약화 시 증시 급락 위험. 시장 괴리: 주가는 트럼프 랠리로 강세이고 실업률 4.4%(10년 래 최저)지만 실물 소매 현장과 괴리가 크다고 지적. 하이퍼인플레이션·달러 붕괴 가능성도 언급. 출연자 전망: 2008년 위기를 예견한 Nouriel Roubini 등 일부 경제학자들이 우려를 표명했다고 인용. 2017년 금융위기·증시 대폭락 위험이 높아지고 있다고 결론. 리스크: 과거 자료(2017년 영상)이며 대상 종목 직접 언급은 없음. 미국 증시 전반에 대한 비관적 관점.
다듬은 글
retailers at risk of bankruptcy a sign of coming economic collapse 2017 several economists including nuur arbini the expert who predicted the outbreak of the 2008 financial crisis are seen read they fear the economic policies put forward by the Trump Administration they also fear the current political and economic context noting that the system is producing excessive uncertainty therefore the risk of a US economic collapse in 2017 is high and getting higher by the week while many economists and finance analysts continue to see only blue skies the signs of a coming US economic collapse are everywhere us retailers are filing for bankruptcy or they are shutting down their stores at a dizzying pace during this past spring some 2,000 store closures were announced but there will be more retail stores closing in 2017 the total number could reach upwards of 8,600 by the end of the year the trend can only get worse from there store closures have accelerated even or especially in large cities you don't need much more evidence for that than Sears Holdings Corp once one of the pillars of the entire retail sector Sears risks bankruptcy in the United States while SE Canada has already announced it but how much longer can other major retailers survive such other longstanding retail chains as Macy's Incorporated Nordstrom Incorporated and JC peny Company Incorporated have been shutting stores down the Canadian retail chain Hudson's Bay Co which owns saaks Fifth Avenue among other retail Brands announced job cuts and store closures in June most of these will occur in the United States contributing to an all-around economic crash in 2017 Amazon wants to get into the food business as traditional retailers fall in a related example amazon.com Incorporated announced that it is buying Whole Foods Market Incorporated the premium food retailer for just under $4.0 billion the acquisition will allow the master of online shopping to sell its products in Brick and M stores or adapt Whole Foods products for online distribution the closures particularly of such premiums invisible Brands as sax or Nordstrom could be fatal for hundreds of shopping malls across the United States certainly investors and consumers can blame the Advent and success of online shopping for retailers shutting down their brick and motor stores but that's only a part of the story and not even the most important part dot behind the retail closures is the Spectre of a looming economic crisis this means that while the demise might be longer online retailers are not immune from the shopping malet that has Afflicted consumers in the United States the chances of a financial crisis in 2017 grow as investors continue to inflate the bubble in turn this increases the chance of a major stock market crash in 2017 in the mid 1990s politicians starting from President Bill Clinton himself pundits and journalists such as Richard Brooks were telling us the economy was performing brilliantly the internet and the new.com startups were going to produce an amazing and prosperous America for everyone the biggest evidence for this was the soaring stock market everyone started to get involved in stocks and optimism abounded but was it warranted a financial crisis in 20 2017 given the global uncertainties starting unusually in Washington itself will not be a minor one day or one week Affair the risks are such that the next financial crisis could trigger an economic crisis there's no avoiding this spiral of economic Doom retail stores and their popularity are one of the barometers of the real economy the one that occurs Beyond often meaningless statistics as professor John clap of the University of Connecticut said the retail cycle has become a spiral of Doom once an important store brand disappears from a mall say a sax or a Nordstrom the influx of customers decreases and impacts other stores retail is the first Domino of the economy to fall even such Services as manicure salons and small jewelry stores all rely on getting important Crumbs from the traffic that visits the Big R retailers when these big retailers disappear they tend to drag smaller businesses with them as the shopping malls disappear the people who live around them will likely follow suit they will abandon those areas and drive real estate prices down meanwhile as Jobs disappear revenues and earnings drop this domino effect reaches all the way to the government because the end result is that tax revenues drop one needs only to look at what happened in Detroit for example to grasp the full sense of the socioeconomic degradation that occurs when key Industries enter a terminal phase changes in the Auto industry not only wiped out thousands of jobs within Ford Motor Company General Motors Company or Fiat Chrysler automobiles EnV starting in the 1980s they also wiped out all the jobs that emerged around the communities of Auto industry workers event eventally such shifts change the very essence of many American cities fueling job cuts the other side of the Spiral is that even the retailers that are performing well may decide to close stores down indeed retailers that fail to close enough stores risk failure because of the upheaval that is taking place in the retail industry right now surely this negative prognosis for the US economic Outlook might shock many indeed Wall Street appears to have embarked on an Unstoppable bullish course that this Trump rally which began shortly after Trump's election is seen as a negative is all the more surprising as the American Stock Market has its second best performance since John F Kennedy became president Wall Street also tells us that the unemployment rate at 4.4% is at its lowest level in more than 10 years the current economy is like a skycraper without foundations but the market performance and these statistics seem to be detached from reality the retail closures meanwhile paint a much different picture this picture is more realistic and reflects the experiences of real people that means that the odd euphoria that has taken hold of Wall Street since the election of Donald Trump is like a skycraper without foundations one of the weaknesses is Trump's political future the president himself has been forced to admit the special prosecutor Robert Mueller has subpoenaed him on suspicion of obstruction of justice without Trump or with a severely weakened Trump there are no more Trump economics even the Republicans who have backed Trump so far will jump ship the deeper the so-called Russia gate investigation or which hunt depending on your point of view goes the less support Trump will have the Trump rally hinges on Trump's Promises of substantial tax cuts heavy infrastructure investment and slashing economic regulation all this Trump assured Americans would help push annual GDP to generate some 3% in growth this optimism has weak legs American investors and voters have been overly optimistic they have underestimated the potential pitfalls of Trump's policies on one hand they have also overestimated the Trump administration's ability to challenge the entrenched interests within the state thus the problem starts at the very beginning Trump was a Washington Outsider he has come to the White House expecting to play a game he knew well instead he's found that the playing fields have multiple levels and there are more entrenched interests Trump has spoken but not yet gotten through Congress about adopting more protectionist policies including the renegotiation of NAFTA are likely to trigger a trade war between the United States and the rest of the world such a scenario would have a very negative impact on International economic relations meanwhile he won't be able to get any of his economic policies through Trump's growing weakness generates uncertainty the will of the new US Administration to close borders to immigration will have an immed imediate and significant impact on the US economy by making it more difficult to attract skilled Talent from overseas at the same time many US companies have learned to rely on cheap labor especially in food and agriculture the Trump Administration announced a $1.0 trillion investment program to repair roads upgrade airports and improve Bridges if this infrastructure program is essential to make the US economy more efficient it will add to the national debt at the same time the massive income tax cut especially for corporations will make it harder to find the funds to run the infrastructure program the proposed tax regime could significantly increase the US deficit by reducing tax overall revenues by some $5.5 trillion from 7.0 trillion over the next decade independent estimates suggest that that this proposed tax reform loan would raise US federal debt to 111% of GDP by 2027 thus the increase in debt could seriously damage American economic growth a couple more lackluster statistics a prolonged Trump impeachment process or even its mere Shadow and an unexpected negative stock performance could bring down the entire US economy and grind the public markets to a halt for too long wall Street and Main Street haven't spoken the same language a market crash will resolve that but it will be a heavy fall even if Trump survives his enemy's impeachment attempts his economic policies risk running the United States into a catastrophic scenario the stock market crash in 2017 risk has already happened add to that the risk of rising unemployment which the collapse of retail is only accelerating and such hogars as hyperinflation or even the collapse of the US dollar raised their heads Richard Brooks were telling us the economy was performing brilliantly the internet and the new.com startups were going to produce an amazing and prosperous America for everyone the biggest evidence for this was the soaring stock market everyone started to get involved in stocks and optimism abounded but was it warranted a financial crisis in 2017 given the global uncertainties starting unusually in Washington itself will not be a minor one day or one week Affair the risks are such that the next financial crisis could trigger an economic crisis there's no avoiding this spiral of economic Doom retail stores and their popularity are one of the barometers of the real economy the one that occurs Beyond often meaningless statistics as professor John oping mauls across the United States certainly investors and consumers can blame the Advent and success of online shopping for retailers shutting down their brick and motor stores but that's only a part of the story and not even the most important part dot behind the retail closures is the Spectre of a looming economic crisis this means that while the demise might be longer online retailers are not immune from the shopping malet that has Afflicted consumers in the United States the chances of a financial crisis in 2017 grow as investors continue to inflate the bubble in turn this increases the chance of a major stock market crash in 2017 in the mid 199s politicians starting from President Bill Clinton himself pundits and journalists such as retail chain Hudson's Bay Co which owned saaks Fifth Avenue among other retail Brands announced job cuts and store closures in June most of these will occur in the United States contributing to an all-around economic crash in 2017 Amazon wants to get into the food business as traditional retailers fall in a related example amazon.com Incorporated announced that it is buying Whole Foods Market Incorporated the premium food retailer for just under $4.0 billion the acquisition will allow the master of online shopping to sell its products in Brick and motor stores or adapt Whole Foods products for online distribution the closures particularly of such premiums and visible Brands as sax or Nordstrom could be fatal for hundreds of shot retailers at risk of bankruptcy a sign of coming economic collapse 2017 several economists including nuur arbini the expert who predicted the outbreak of the 2008 financial crisis are seen read they fear the economic policies put forward by the Trump Administration they also fear the current political and economic context noting that the system is producing excessive uncertainty therefore the risk of a US economic collapse in 2017 is high and getting higher by the week while many economists and finance analysts continue to see only Blue Skies the signs of a coming US economic collapse are everywhere us retailers are filing for bankruptcy or they are shutting down their stores at a dizzying pace during this past spring some 2,000 store closures were announced but there will be more retail stores closing in 2017 the total number could reach upward of 8,600 by the end of the year the trend can only get worse from the there store closures have accelerated even or especially in large cities you don't need much more evidence for that than Sears Holdings Corp once one of the pillars of the entire retail sector Sears risks bankruptcy in the United States while Sirus Canada has already announced it but how much longer can other major retailers survive such other long-standing retail chains as Macy's Incorporated Nordstrom Incorporated and J AC Penny Company Incorporated have been shutting stores down the Canadian
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