저자: MarcFaber/진행:ShawnNewton · 외국인
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2017년 미국 경기침체 임박 및 세계 경기 둔화 경고와 트럼프 보호무역 정책의 위험성 강조. 거시 경기: 2008년 이후 회복은 미약하며 실물경제는 여전히 침체 상태라고 주장. OECD 기준 성장률은 미국·독일 2% 미만, 영국·이탈리아 1% 수준, 세계 전체 약 3% 전망. 중국: 성장률 목표가 하향 조정되어 2017년 6~6.5%, 2018년 5.5%까지 낮아질 수 있다고 봄. 트럼프 정책: 인프라 투자는 경기 회복 요인이나, 미국 우선주의(America First)는 중상주의(mercantilism)로 세계 질서를 크게 흔드는 위험이 있다고 분석. TPP 탈퇴는 첫 중상주의 신호. 무역 및 역효과: 무역 장벽과 관세(최대 35%)는 보복관세와 무역전쟁을 유발해 세계 경제에 타격을 줄 수 있음. 미국 GDP 대비 무역 비중은 1950년 4%에서 2016년 133%로 증가해 보호무역의 부작용이 큼. 제조업 고용: 1950년대 약 30%였던 제조업 고용 비중이 2016년 약 8%로 감소했으며, 제조업 부활 주장은 현실성이 낮다고 평가. 금리·달러: 보호무역 정책 하에서 연준의 금리 인상은 달러 강세와 미국 제품 경쟁력 약화를 가져와 위험을 높인다고 봄. 주식시장: 다우지수 2만 돌파 등 증시 랠리는 실물경제와 괴리되어 있으며 단기적 현상이라고 경고. 이민·기술: 이민 제한은 혁신 약화를 초래하며, 고령화와 로봇·디지털 혁명에 따른 일자리 대체 문제가 간과되고 있다고 지적. 결론: 2017년 경기침체 가능성을 높게 보며, 투자자는 시장의 안전함에 안주하지 말고 대비해야 한다고 조언.
다듬은 글
the upcoming economic recession could be far worse than the Great Recession of 2008 the United States is heading toward another economic recession in 2017 if the US enters a recession it won't be long before the rest of the world follows suit there is an unusual level of uncertainty because the dark years of the Great Recession or the 2008 recession that started in 2008 have given way to real growth global growth predictions stand at 3% but in the organization for economic cooperation and development oecd countries including the US and Germany gross domestic product GDP could hit just below 2% in someone's leading economies like the UK and Italy growth might reach 1% in countries outside the oecd GDP growth might be just above 4% overall after the last recession these figures should have been much higher instead the economic recovery is lukewarm at best it's not enough then to speak of an upcoming recession the world never came out of the last recession even China has been forced to revise its GDP growth expectation downward China expects 6 to 6.5% growth in 2017 it could be as low as 5.5% in 2018 the next four years will feature several new terms that all begin with the word Trump trump onomics is one of the key terms that will help Define the next era what defines Trump onomics or if you prefer Donald Trump policies the causes of economic recession in 2017 by the new US president's own description infrastructure development will play a significant role in driving economic recovery infrastructure will serve as the base for Trump's America First policy but America First represents a much bigger disruption to the current globalist system more than infrastructure the America First policy brings back mercantilist policies this is not altogether bad but it might be altogether impossible to achieve Trump's program is mercantilist because it wants to reduce America's trade deficit by using its geopolitical Cloud to curb Surplus from its main trading partners thus Trump has essentially put china Mexico and evidently the European Union EU on notice the problem is that the world has moved away from mercantilism over the past few decades it has been moving away from that model in fact since the end of World War II to promote greater security and Lasting peace States gradually lifted trade restrictions in mercantilism however the state is solely dedicated to the promotion of its own National wealth mercantilism wants to protect local products from external competition while aggressively promoting exports and industrialization it was a policy that found its most aggressive expression in the 16th 17th centuries it was the result of capital influx in the form of precious metals mined and colonies to build up buling rather than the multilateral free freeish trade of the present the classic mercantilist state was Imperial Spain the Spanish Crown sought to accumulate a maximum of precious metals as a source of national wealth the Trump Administration would not reach that level of mercantilism it would not pull out of international trade altogether but it would tend to generate inflation and therefore higher interest rates of course it is the job of every state to protect its National interest but the current Global approach stressed that states could obtain the best compromise between growth and security through cooperation thus looking out for the benefits of trade groups or trade agreements became the norm apart from the EU perhaps the most advanced example there are important trading blocks such as aan in Asia or Moser in Latin America agreements such as the transpacific partnership TPP were the latest such effort and one of the most ambitious where the United States was concerned not surprisingly one of President Trump's first executive actions was to pull the United States out of the TPP that was the first big mercantilist signal the problem is that the rest of the world does not seem ready to go back to that model that's why there is no certainty that such a move improves the US economic Outlook 2017 indeed because the US seems to be the only economic power willing to exu mer the Trump Administration cannot pull away from global trade that would kill American Business Trump's policies might favor local production and tax certain imports from China but Trump May face challenges this is where Trump's plan could go or I Trump wants to cut Imports but promote American exports he has not shown any sign of discouraging American industrial output on the contrary he wants to increase it but the idea that America can both defend its domestic Market from Imports while encouraging exports around the world doesn't work the rest of the world operates through trade blocks and agreements and substitutes for American Industrial Products exist in addition by pulling away from globalization Trump would be doing a major disservice to the United States perhaps the point became lost during the presidential campaign but no country not even China has gained as much from globalization ation as the United States American Technology has spread worldwide Global entrepreneurs have invested in the United States they have listed their companies on the New York Stock Exchange n yse the world invests in us real estate and lives and breathes us culture mercantilism May backfire should it defy logic and socioeconomic Evolution to become popular again rather while increasing the chances of a global economic Rec Trump's neomercantilism puts the US economy at greater risk yet many rightly Wonder given all the risk of Trump's policies where are the signs of an economic recession it seems not a day goes by that Wall Street doesn't hit a new record the performance of the stock markets and Wall Street in particular speaks for itself it was Dow 20,000 in December 2016 2 months later the Dow seems headed for 21,000 n but the stock market is detached from the real economy therefore is the US heading toward economic recession don't let the Dow Jones fool you Trump onomics does have a special appeal for free markets in theory it promises fewer taxes fewer regulations more investment and more spending on infrastructure the effect of what Trump's policies might unleash on the American economy should not be underestimated president Trump's calist and nationalist stance presents risks for the American and global economy simply put the US is still deeply intertwined in worldwide financial and economic Affairs a radical change of approach will therefore cause disruption perhaps in time some economies will recover but the effects of the 2008 recession remain in other words while there has been a financial recovery the real economy remains in a recession State the much heralded recovery has not yet completed its course if it ever began one of the reasons is that investment has slowed down without recovering in this context there is a pessimistic probability good political sense reinforced by economic history suggests that should Trump truly unleash AER calist and protectionist economic policy he would trigger an equal escalation in the opposite direction it's not quantum physics it's basic Mechanics for every action there is an equal and opposite reaction yes you recognize that as Newton's third law of motion it doesn't just apply to physics Trump's economic aggression against China and Germany and also Mexico and Japan could backfire these are the biggest exporters of the planet they have considerable external surpluses the United States cannot afford the luxury of protectionism not in this world and not now Trump has claimed that China's Trade Surplus is the result of a deliberate policy of devaluing its currency the uon nothing could be further from the facts China has tried its hardest to stem Capital flight that's what has caused the uon to fall Trump has accused Germany of manipulating the euro to its sole benefit at the expense of its EU partners he may be more correct on Germany than on China given what many Europeans say but such logic also has flaws Trump mercantilism would promptly crash with harsh reality the United States is much more involved in World Trade than in the Golden Age of American Supremacy in the immediate aftermath of the world war trade's share of GDP has more than tripled since 1950 from 4% then to 133% in 2016 more significantly the peak in manufacturing jobs in the US has been declining since the 1950s when Trump speaks of bringing back manufactur uring jobs he seems to neglect some basic facts in the 1950s manufacturing jobs accounted for about 30% of the total by 2016 the share had dropped to 8% protectionism can't work in 2017 when you add the protectionism that Trump's marantal policies will generate It seems impossible to achieve that kind of leap into Nostalgia Trump's policies would surely achieve one thing a drop in World Trade which is already sluggish and an economic recession worldwide all the while the higher fed interest rates would exacerbate that risk while boosting the value of the dollar making us Goods less competitive as a result the recent Market Euphoria and the Trump effect are more the products of the American economic recovery that began a year ago the stock markets are feeding themselves surprised that General consumer appetite has not dwindled but this is shortterm Trump's protectionist policies would enforce duties of up to 35% on foreign Goods this would certainly achieve the goal of making imported products more expensive but it would drastically reduce consumers purchasing power it would also cut the competitiveness of American companies which depend on the imported components meanwhile China and Europe could also increase tariffs as a reaction this would result in an allout trade War the whole global economy would suffer severely from the resulting isolationism the first effect would be the loss of millions of jobs worldwide and the United States would not be spared the result is depression not even recession total economic collapse the markets are not interpreting Trump's policies as much as what the president has said about his policies there is a difference Trump's policies do not represent anything new much less revolutionary they are a mild version of basic mercantilism under Trump America expects to grow by promoting as much economic activity as possible within its own borders Trump has already shown he plans to protect American industry through tariff barriers Trump plans to increase spending on the military which is good for defense sector stocks but a bigger military might be needed to enforce the kind of political power relations to support exports of course a bigger military and ever more expensive equipment require taxes Trump has not indicated where the money to fuel this kind of economy would come from he wants to reduce taxes in any economic Outlook 2017 Trump has generated risks linked to protectionism populism anti-europeanism anti-china sentiments and immigration as for the latter the economic success of the US is strongly dependent on the knowledge and experience of immigrants Innovation would suffer many experts scientists and academics would tend to avoid visiting the us because of doubt about their status let's not forget that the leaders of the US Atomic program or the Space Program were immigrants Trump has overshadowed the more pressing issues of an aging population and the technological digital Revolution which will make much of current work redundant robots are ready to replace many human functions these fact left unheeded have dangerously become less pressing even if they are much more destabilizing Trump might try to mitigate the effects of his protectionism he will likely dissuade the US Federal Reserve chair Janet yelen from raising us interest raids to keep the dollar competitive if Yellen doesn't comply Trump would find an old trick from his The Apprentice handbook you're fired Janet to protect yourself against the risk of the almost inevitable recession on the horizon there are solutions learn what you can now while others Revel in the fragile safety of the markets the upcoming economic recession could be far worse than the Great Recession of 2008 the United States is heading toward another economic recession in 2017 if the US enters a recession it won't be long before the rest of the world follows suit there is an unusual level of uncertainty because the dark years of the Great re recession or the 2008 recession that started in 2008 have given way to real growth Global growth predictions stand at 3% but in the organization for economic cooperation and development oecd countries including the US and Germany gross domestic product GDP could hit just below 2% in someone's leading economies like the UK and Italy growth might reach 1% in countries outside the oecd G decades it has been moving away from that model in fact since the end of World War II to promote greater security and Lasting peace States gradually lifted trade restrictions in mercantilism however the state is solely dedicated to the promotion of its own National wealth mercantilism wants to protect local products from external competition while aggressively promoting exports and industrialization it was a policy that found its most aggressive expression in the 16th 17th centuries it was the result of capital influx in the form of precious metals mined and colonies to build up bullying rather than the multilateral free freeish trade of the present the classic mercantilist state was Imperial Spain the Spanish Crown sought to accumulate a maximum of precious metals as a source of national 117 by the new US president's own description in infrastructure development will play a significant role in driving economic recovery infrastructure will serve as the base for Trump's America First policy but America First represents a much bigger disruption to the current globalist system more than infrastructure the America First policy brings back mercantilist policies this is not altogether bad but it might be altogether impossible to achieve Trump's program is mercantilist because it wants to reduce America's trade deficit by using its geopolitical Cloud to curb Surplus from its main trading partners thus Trump has essentially put china Mexico and evidently the European Union EU on notice the problem is that the world has moved away from mercantilism over the past fewd growth might be just above 4% overall after the last recession these figures should have been much higher instead the economic recovery is lukewarm at best it's not enough then to speak of an upcoming recession the world never came out of the last recession even China has been forced to revise its GDP growth expectation downward China expects 6 to 6.5% growth in 2017 it could be as low as 5.5% in 2018 the next four years will feature several new terms that all begin with the word Trump trumponomics is one of the key terms that will help Define the next era what defines trumponomics or if you prefer Donald Trump policies the causes of economic recession in 201 the Trump Administration would not reach that level of mercantilism it would not pull out of international trade altogether but it would tend to generate inflation and therefore higher interest rates of course it is the job of every state to to protect its National interest but the current Global approach stressed that states could obtain the best compromise between growth and security through cooperation thus looking out for the benefits of trade groups or trade agreements became the norm apart from the EU perhaps the most advanced example there are important trading blocks such as aan in Asia or Moser in Latin America agreements such as the trans-pacific partnership TPP were the latest such effort and one of the most ambitious where the United States was concerned not surprisingly one of President Trump's first
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