저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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결론: 피터 쉬프는 미국 주식·달러 자산에 비관적이며 해외 주식과 금을 선호하고, 비트코인 등 암호화폐는 거품으로 보고 있다. [거시·주식시장] 미국 주식은 하락 리스크 대비 상승 여지가 부족해 매수하지 않겠다는 입장이다. 달러는 1985년 이후 최악의 연초 출발을 보였고, 해외 주식은 미국 주식 대비 밸류에이션 격차가 매우 커 저평가되어 있다고 주장했다. 미국 주식시장에는 20% 하락하는 약세장 가능성이 있다고 봤다. 연준이 오바마·힐러리 시기에는 시장 하락을 막았지만, 트럼프 시기에는 주가 하락의 책임을 트럼프에게 돌리기 위해 약세장을 용인할 수 있다고 주장했다. 단기 블랙스완으로는 트럼프 랠리 소멸을 꼽았다. 감세·규제완화·의료보험 폐지 등 기대가 실현되지 않으면 주가 기대치가 되돌려질 수 있다는 논리다. [실적·기업부채] 소매업 실적은 부진하고 소비자는 빈곤하며 부채가 많다고 진단했다. 금리 상승 시 자사주 매입에 쓰인 부채 기업들이 타격을 받을 것으로 봤다. 반면 상대방은 S&P500이 올해 10% 상승했고 실적 성장률이 두 분기 연속 두 자릿수라고 반박했다. [연준·금리] 연준의 대차대조표 축소(QT)는 불가능하며, 다음 경기침체 때 QE4로 대차대조표가 10조 달러까지 커질 것으로 전망했다. 금리 인상은 거의 끝났고 곧 금리 인하와 QE로 전환될 것이라고 봤다. 유럽중앙은행과 일본은행의 대차대조표 합계가 연준을 넘어섰다는 점도 위험 요인으로 언급했다. [비트코인·금] 비트코인과 암호화폐는 화폐가 될 수 없는 거대한 거품이며 붕괴할 것이라고 주장했다. 공급 증가로 수요를 압도할 것이라는 논리다. 보유자는 이익을 실현해 실물 화폐인 금으로 옮겨야 한다고 권했다. 금은 1,300달러 박스권 돌파가 필요하나 연준 금리 인하 전환 시 상승할 것으로 기대했다. [정부 셧다운] 정부 셧다운은 오히려 경제를 해방시킬 긍정적 요인이라고 봤다.
다듬은 글
the stock market recovering after quite a sell-off here now is Peter Schiff CEO of euro pacific capital and Peter I say quite a sell-off because even a one and a half percent decline in stocks is big given this low-volatility environment we're in so stocks have sort of rebounded here what's your take on where things stand is this a good buying opportunity look I wouldn't buy US stocks even if they thought they were going up because they're certainly not enough upside potential to justify the downside risk if you want to invest in stocks do what I'm doing invest internationally invest in foreign stocks you know the dollar is off to its worst start of a year maybe since 1985 so the returns that people are making internationally are dwarfing what people are making here and the valuation gap is enormous you've never had foreign stocks so cheap relative to two US stocks but you know the real risk here is that this market could go down a lot you know how much is alive Bob well I mean we could have a bear market I mean we haven't had one in a long time that's a 20% decline because we've had this yelling put the Fed wouldn't let the market go down when Obama was president they certainly didn't want it to go down before the election because they wanted to put Hillary Clinton into the Oval Office after Obama so they had the markets back there was this foot but what if the put expired with Donald Trump I don't know if the Fed has much love for Trump and now the Trump has put his brand on the stock market and this economy maybe the Fed is happy to allow a bear market that can be blamed on Trump you're calling the Fed political which is certainly a valid argument a lot of people are saying that but the Fed also had a recession in 2009 to deal with so they needed those stimulative measures then to deal with that well I have no doubt that they will come back with the same stimulus once this recession is fully underway and blamed on on President Trump even though it's not his fault that's simply the mess that he inherited from Obama but the Fed did not have to do the type of economic stimulus that it did in 2009 2010 that's why the economy never healed that's why we're in worse trouble today than we were back then and remem the Federal Reserve created the housing bubble there the reason we had a financial crisis it was their economic policy that began early in the Bush era you know when we bursted the dot-com bubble they deliberately inflated the housing bubble they kicked the can down the road and we caught up to the can in 2008 and then they kicked it again and we're gonna catch up to it now under under under Trump but unfortunately I think the powers that be including the Fed are already ready to blame this disaster on Donald Trump he's the fall guy and he has taken their bait by talking about how great the stock market is by talking about how great the economy is the stock market is a bubble and the economy is a disaster he shouldn't want to own this disaster he should still be blaming how bad things are on Obama I'm a Fed but he's not doing that anymore all right so what is the black swan risks coming in the next six weeks or so we know the next six weeks are historically bad for the markets we now have goldman sachs coming out saying there's a 50% chance of a government shutdown which is not exactly a decisive forecast so is it the government shutdown that could be the black swan or could be it could it be something else well I doubt the government's gonna shut down I actually think that would be a positive I mean if we shut down the economy we the government we could liberate the economy so my fear is that the government won't shut down it'll just get bigger and bigger and bigger but what might be the black swan is if the market surrenders the the Trump euphoric rally remember we've had a huge move up since the election of Trump even though prior to the election the expectation was if Trump won it was a disaster yet he won anyway and then you know the markets rallied because of the idea that we were gonna get all this deregulation these significant tax reform all the stimulus well if people start to realize that that's not going to happen that the markets built in events that are not going to transpire we didn't get rid of Obamacare that was supposed to happen we're not gonna get substantive tax reform we'll be lucky if we even get tax cuts by the end of the year we're not gonna get the massive regulatory relief so what if we price all that back out of the market and what if there's no yelling put that's a big drop in the market dropping the dollar can continue and then no this whole supposed strong economy that Trump is talking about is all based on confidence well it's all false confidence well what happens if all that confidence goes away yeah but Peter is yeah you know you have to also take into account the earnings growth we've been seeing across you know as the hunter we've had two straight quarters of double-digit earnings growth so isn't that part of the the stock market rally this year not just Trump look at look at these retailers one after another coming out with awful earnings look at Foot Locker here today down 25% of there's one sector being you know hit by Amazon no no it's not Amazon you know retail spending right that's seventy percent of our GDP their retailers are collapsing Amazon has been here for a long time this is the worst year for retail its worst in 2008 2009 this is because consumers are broke they have lousy jobs they're loaded up with debt they can't afford to buy stuff but only when retail sector the SP is up ten percent this year what is the sp500 up ten percent this year even with the damaged retail sector yeah but the profits are not really up the Martyn market is going up you know and what happens if interest rates really start to rise forget about the Fed what if long-term rates start to back up what if inflation starts to accelerate these are things that are gonna happen and you know this whole phony house of cards comes tumbling down I don't know we saw profit growth of uh you know ten percent for this current reporting season a you can argue that there's financial engineering and you know things companies are doing cost cuts to to sort of beef up the numbers but you know corporate America is doing much better than they have been we haven't seen this kind of earnings growth since 2011 well let's see what happens if we go to a recession which is going to impede their revenues and let's see what happens if interest rates finally rise despite what the Fed does and that's gonna undermine their costs because you have a lot of companies that are levered up their balance sheets they have borrowed a lot of money during the Obama era to buy back their stock that's one of the main reason is that we've been driving the stock market is with debt financed share buybacks but all that's gonna come back to bite these companies when interest rates go up and then what happens the stocks go down they they have to repay the debt now they have to go back and sell stock that they bought but now they have to sell it at a much lower price than what they paid to buy it so they can retire the debt that they can no longer afford to service because interest rates have gone up and then we find out how much value corporations have destroyed meanwhile while they were buying back their stock they weren't modernizing their plant equipment I mean we have out of date depreciated right equipment and you know so I think corporate America has gotten sick on all this cheap money alright Peter I want to move away from the stock market for just a moment and talk about the surge in Bitcoin this year it's been unbelievable you're not a fan why not well you know obviously I wish I'd have you know just been you know been a gambler and I wish I would have realized how big the potential bubble was and was willing to you know take a flyer Annika Slee anybody who bought Bitcoin a few years ago you know to the extent that they sell out now they're gonna make a lot of money but if they don't sell out now all they're gonna have is the memory of the profits that they never took this is a gigantic bubble you know what kept me out of it is understanding that it's not going to work that Bitcoin or any of these crypto currencies are never going to be money they're never going to achieve with everybody believes is going to happen all that's happening now is people are speculating on something that isn't going to happen but the fact that so many people think it might happen or a betting that other people will continue to bet that it's gonna happen you have the prices going up but you know remember there are all kinds of dot-com stocks that people thought we're gonna make a lot of money and the stock prices went up and up and up until they eventually went bankrupt and so all the paper profits disappeared and the companies went to zero and I think the same thing is gonna happen with all these crypto currencies they're going to collapse meanwhile what people should be buying if they don't like fiat money if they don't like the central banks they should be buying gold gold is money that will work not all this nonsense all this you know a digital gold it's fool's gold Gold is real money and you know what if you like the convenience of using the Internet you can go to a company like Gold money you can buy gold from them they'll store it from you and you can use it to buy things you can spend it just like you can spend your dollars or euros you can earn it if you're a businessman you can earn in gold you can save and go gold never been easier to use his money today than it has in the past but gold works his money these crypto alternatives are not going to work they're going to collapse this is all a big bubble here's another factor to layer on to your argument against Bitcoin when you look at the price of Bitcoin and these Google searches for Bitcoin the correlation is one so it just kind of shows you that people are you know maybe doing a very you know thin analysis into why they're buying Bitcoin a lot of people now aren't doing any analysis I mean initially there were a lot of libertarians and free-market guys that got involved early on but now it's just a fun bunch of speculate you got a hedge funds that are buying it you know they take just they're just buying it because it's going up I mean they don't care I mean it's it's just it's just a trend and they're jumping on board you have rampant speculation but now it's not just Bitcoin you know when Bitcoin got started it was the only one now there's like a thousand of them they keep on creating them there's massive inflation among crypto currencies they keep on creating them one after another so the supply is gonna ultimately overwhelm the demand and once the bottom drops out of the market and the prices collapse that's it I mean they're gonna destroy the brand the whole idea that these currencies could ever be money yeah it's going to go away and in fact your crypto currencies are gonna be so bad they're gonna make government fiat currency look good you know ultimately what's gonna win out is gonna be gold and so the smart people you know if they if they if they were lucky enough or dumb enough whatever it was to buy crypto cryptos early enough they need to sell now at least tape in your profits out of the market and buy some real money where's gold tested 1,300 where do you see it going by the end of the year well it's gotta break out of this range you know thirteen thirteen fifty you know there's still a lot of people shorting gold there's still a lot of skepticism The Wall Street still thinks gold is going down because they think the Fed is gonna keep raising rates they think that's bad for gold but you know the rate hikes are almost over soon we're gonna be back in a recession it's gonna be rate cuts it's gonna be QE for forget about quantitative tightening we're doing quantitative easing you don't think it's a funny one and we're running out of time but you don't think the Fed is gonna unwind the balance sheet that's impossible they're gonna they're gonna blow it up even bigger the balance sheets gonna go to ten trillion there is no way that they can unload these Treasuries in the minutes that it's gonna start sometime in September they think yeah look I don't care what they told us I mean they like to talk let's see what they do look they were talking about raising interest rates for years before they did it in fact I think the only reason they'd been raising rates recently is because Trump is president if yeah if if Clinton were president I don't think we've had we would have had any of the last three rate hikes I think the data dependent Fed would have looked at all that lousy data and they would have been a would have left late rates alone but you know they're just talk and they want to pretend that they can shrink this balance sheet because they want to keep that pretense going but it is impossible if even if they just stopped reinvesting it would send interest rates off it would send mortgage rates up and that would crash the housing market the bottom part yeah I don't know I don't know if it's impossible it's certainly going to take a long time to get from four and a half trillion to whatever level they want three trillion two trillion but we'll see how it plays out a recession is coming what are they going to do in the next recession they're gonna do QE four even if they manage to slightly shrink the balance sheet they're gonna blow it up again in the next recession and then where is it gonna go ten trillion then they're gonna have to shrink that balance sheet good luck if they can't shrink the four and a half trillion dollar balance sheet how are they ever gonna shrink a ten trillion dollar balance well and Peter here's the scariest thing that the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan their balance sheet actually just crossed the Fed's balance sheet in terms of size so this is a problem that the whole global economy will have to deal with oh yeah and you know and and and I think that's why some people are going into these crypto currencies but they're jumping out of the frying pan into the fire they need to be going in going into real money alright Peter I gotta go but fascinating conversation thanks so much for joining us anytime market could go down a lot you know how much is a lot Bob well I mean we could have a bear market I mean we haven't had one in a long time that's a 20% decline because we've had this yelling put the Fed wouldn't let the market go down when Obama was president and they certainly didn't want it to go down before the election because they wanted to put Hillary Clinton into the Oval Office after Obama so they had the markets back there was this put but what if the put expired with Donald Trump I don't know if the Fed has much for Trump and now the Trump has put his brand on the stock market and this economy maybe the Fed is happy to allow a bear market that can be blamed on Trump you're calling the Fed political which is certainly a valid argument a lot of people are saying that but the Fed also had a recession in 2009 to deal derp but unfortunately I think the powers that be including the Fed are already ready to blame this disaster on Donald Trump he's the fall guy and he has taken their bait by talking about how great the stock market is by talking about how great the economy is the stock market is a bubble and the economy is a disaster he shouldn't want to own this disaster he should still be blaming how bad things are on Obama I'm a Fed but he's not doing that anymore all right so what is the black swan risks coming in the next six weeks or so we know the next six weeks are historically bad for the markets we now have Goldman Sachs coming out saying there's a 50% chance of a government shutdown which is not exactly a decisive forecast so is it the government shutdown that could be the black swan or could be it could it be something else well I doubt the government's gonna shut down I actually think that would be a positive I mean if we shut down the economy the stock market recovering after quite a sell-off here now is Peter Schiff CEO of euro pacific capital and Peter I say quite a sell-off because even a one and a half percent decline in stocks is big given this low-volatility environment we're in so stocks have sort of rebounded here what's your take on where things stand is this a good buying opportunity look I wouldn't buy US stocks even if they thought they were going up because they're certainly not enough upside potential to justify the downside risk if you want to invest in stocks do what I'm doing invest internationally invest in foreign stocks you know the dollar is off to its worst start of a year maybe since 1985 so the returns that people are making internationally are dwarfing what people are making here and the valuation gap is enormous you've never had foreign stocks so cheap relative to two US stocks but you know the real risk here is that this money we the government we can liberate the economy so my fear is that the government won't shut down it'll just get bigger and bigger and bigger but what might be the black swan is if the market surrenders the the Trump euphoric rally remember we've had a huge move up since the election of Trump even though prior to the election the expectation was if Trump won it was a disaster yet he won anyway and then you know the markets rallied because of the idea that we were gonna get all this deregulation these significant tax reform all this stimulus well if people start to realize that that's not going to happen that the markets built in events that are not going to transpire we didn't get rid of Obamacare that was supposed to happen we're not gonna get substantive tax reform we'll be lucky if we even get tax cuts by the end of the year we're not gonna get the massive regulatory relief with so they needed those stimulative measures then to deal with that well I have no doubt that they will come back with the same stimulus once this recession is fully underway and blamed on on President Trump even though it's not his fault that's simply the mess that he inherited from Obama but the Fed did not have to do the type of economic stimulus that it did in 2009 2010 that's why the economy never healed that's why we're in worse trouble today than we were back then and the Federal Reserve created the housing bubble there the reason we had a financial crisis it was their economic policy that began early in the Bush era you know when we bursted the dot-com bubble they deliberately inflated the housing bubble they kicked the can down the road and we caught up to the can in 2008 and then they kicked it again and we're going to catch up to it now on
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