저자: Ali · 외국인
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결론: 마이클 배리(Scion Asset Management) 2019년 3분기 13F 포트폴리오 7개 종목을 성장주 투자자 관점에서 티어 랭킹한 영상으로, 구글만 S급, 나머지 대부분 낮게 평가하며 배리의 단기 바닥 베팅 전략에는 부정적이다. [포트폴리오 개요] 배리는 2019년 3분기 말 기준 7개 종목으로 축소했고 포트폴리오 가치는 약 6천만 달러였다. 랭킹은 S·A·B·C·D 5단계이며 티어당 최대 4종목, 최소 1종목 규칙을 적용했다. [구글(GOOG) - S티어] 세계 최대 검색 엔진, 성장 중인 클라우드, 유튜브 보유로 미국 디지털 광고 점유율 1위. 연매출 약 1,360억 달러, 연 20% 내외 성장. 포워드 PER은 업종 중앙값보다 26% 높고 PGR은 약 10% 높다. 주가는 5년간 150% 이상 상승했지만 장기 성장성을 이유로 최고 평가하며, 주가 하락 시 매수 계획을 밝혔다. [캐나다 내추럴 리소스(CNQ) - A티어] 캐나다 최대 독립 석유·가스 생산사. 최근 1년 주가 22% 상승했으나 5년간은 하락. 포워드 PER은 업종 중앙값보다 약 30% 높음. 매출은 고성장했지만 2020년 보합 전망. 배당수익률 약 4%. 본인은 변동성 큰 에너지주를 선호하지 않아 중간 평가. [스포츠맨스 웨어하우스(SPWH) - B티어] 아웃도어 스포츠용품 소매업체. 대형 소매점들의 총기 판매 중단 수혜 기대. 향후 5년 EPS 연 20% 이상 성장 전망, PEG 1 미만으로 밸류에이션 매력. 2019년 주가 80% 이상 상승. 본인은 소매업을 선호하지 않아 평범하게 평가. [베드 배스 앤 비욘드(BBBY) - D티어] 가정용품 소매 체인. 매출 정체·감소, EPS는 향후 5년 연 4% 감소 전망, PEG 음수. 2019년 30% 상승했으나 5년간 약 80% 하락. 추수감사절 영업 등 필사적 고객 유치 시도. 장기 보유는 어렵다고 평가하나 파산은 피했다는 점에서 뉴 벡트라보다 상위. [테일러드 브랜즈(TLRD) - D티어] 남성 정장 브랜드 모회사(Men's Wearhouse, Jos. A. Bank). 2019년 60% 이상, 5년간 약 90% 하락. 매출 감소 지속. 밸류에이션은 매우 낮지만 장기 투자 불가로 평가. [게임스탑(GME) - D티어] 물리 게임 소매업체. 디지털 전환으로 실물 게임 판매 급감. 최근 12개월 10억 달러 이상 손실, 올해 매출 약 20% 감소 전망. 신형 콘솔 출시로 단기 반등 가능성은 언급. 배리가 가장 큰 비중(27%)을 둔 종목이었으나 장기적으로 신뢰 불가. [뉴 벡트라(VTR) - D티어] 신경자극 의료기기 회사, 2016년 상장. 2018년 20달러대에서 14센트로 폭락, 챕터11 파산 신청 예정. 포트폴리오의 1% 미만으로 비중이 작음. 배리의 가장 최근 신규 편입 종목. [출연자 전망 및 리스크] 진행자는 배리의 단기 바닥 매수·반등 차익 전략을 리스크가 크다고 보고 자신은 장기 성장 투자자라고 명시. 배리 전략을 따라 하는 것은 거의 하지 않겠다는 입장.
다듬은 글
hey welcome back guys to my world of stocks my name is Ali of course and welcome back to my tearless series where we take the stock portfolios of famous investors or traders and we rank their ten largest stocks from best down to worst in a tearless ranking system and if you're not familiar with what a tier list is it's just a sort of ranking system made up of different tiers from best at the top to worse at the bottom and we do it to visually organize the stocks that we're looking at and rank them in comparison to each other again from best down to worse and I also take into consideration the broader market as well but it's mostly a comparison of these stocks in relation to each other to see which stocks I like the most and which stocks I like the least out of the portfolio and of course I also give my quick opinion on each stock as we go through in case there's anything on there that is worth taking a closer look at in the future as a possible investments for myself but these videos are always a lot of fun for us and if you want to check out past episodes where we looked at investors like Warren Buffett and Bill Gates and even Jeremy from financial education you can find past episodes up here down in the description or at the end of this video on a clickable card but in today's episode we'll be taking a look at Michael burry who most of you probably recognize from the movie The Big Short where he was played by Christian Bale for accurately predicting the 2008 mortgage crisis leading to the Great Recession now in the past his investment firm called Scion Asset Management's held a variety of different stocks but in the last quarter they actually trimmed their portfolio down to just only seven stocks so we're gonna go ahead and run through them and I'll give my quick opinion on each okay as always a ranking list will consist of five different tiers from s down to D with S tier being the very best of the stocks of the portfolio the a tier will be kind of above average the beats here will be mostly average kind of middle-of-the-road the sea tier will be below average and then the detail will be the very weakest stocks of the portfolio and the rules are that there needs to be at least one stock in every single tier and there can be no more than four stocks per tier so that we spread everything out more and have a clean and more evenly balanced ranking so that we can clearly see which stocks I consider to be better than the others and all of my opinions on these stocks will be based on today's prices and looking out into the future as a slightly more growth oriented long-term investor okay now the last time that Scion had to report their holdings was for the third quarter of 2019 which was released by the SEC on November 14 2019 so this information is based on that date and at that time the portfolio was worth almost sixty million dollars and coming in at stock number seven that's going to be new Vectra ticker symbol and VTR and less than half of one percent of his portfolio and it was actually a brand new position for him in the quarter now this is a medical device company that went public in 2016 as they spin-off from another company called Greatbatch which i've never heard of either company myself but apparently new Vectra is a medical device company that specializes in neuro stimulation and I believe their first flagship product was a spinal cord stimulation system called alga Vita in any case this is by all accounts a completely failing penny stock as they used to trade for over 20 dollars a share as recently as 2018 but have since crashed all the way down to just 14 cents after announcing that they will file for chapter 11 bankruptcy that could technically still involve a sale of the company or even assets like their algalita system I'm not sure if this is a result of that but I couldn't find any valuation metrics on Yahoo Finance although they have technically been growing their sales by very high rates with revenue growth of over 50% last year but they've also been losing tens of millions of dollars of free cash flow in each of those years so I honestly just have no idea like what's going on with this company but I'm assuming that Barry was trying to time the bottom and perhaps wasn't aware of their plans to file for bankruptcy in any case they absolutely belong in the D tier as I doubt that we'll see any other stocks on the list that is in worse conditions by the way I will just note that at less than 1% of burries portfolio it barely affects him at all and that's probably why he gambled on it okay coming in at stock number six that's going to be Canadian natural resources ticker symbol is C and Q at just under seven percent of his portfolio and this was another new position for him in the quarter now this is a Canadian oil and natural gas company in fact they're currently Canada's largest independent oil and gas producer and when looking at their stock they seem to be pretty volatile which is common for these type of energy stocks but despite most oil and gas companies really tanking this past year they actually saw their stock climbed by over 22% although they are still down a little over the last five years that recent rally though has left them trading about thirty percent higher than the sector median on a forward p/e basis that may be justified though given that they've actually grown their sales by pretty high rates in recent years although they are expected to be flat in 2020 but have also been able to squeeze out profits recently with over four billion Canadian dollars of net income over the past year at a time when oil prices have been mostly falling which is not something that a lot of oil and gas companies have been able to say lately so it's kind of impressive and all that meanwhile they continue to pay a pretty attractive dividend of close to four percent with some decent growth potential on it as well still I know very little about energy stocks and as more of a growth oriented investor myself I'm just not a big fan of the volatility of oil companies and would prefer those with brighter looking futures like renewables to actually invest in myself so for me this is still a stock that doesn't really attract me so I'll have to put them in the average beat here for now in case we run into any other stocks that I happen to either like more or dislike a little bit more okay next up here we have Bed Bath & Beyond at stock number five at over 13 percent of his portfolio which is also a new position for him this quarter and I'm sure you guys have heard of this one they're a retail chain that sells home products for mostly the bedroom and bathroom but they also offer other goods for things like the kitchen and so on and I don't know if you guys have ever shopped there but it's actually a pretty nice store and the selection is usually pretty good although to be honest I personally use Amazon for almost all of my home shopping needs these days so I have concerns how sticky their business is going into the future and is more of a long-term kind of growth oriented investor I've just never really felt the need to really research them in-depth although they do technically have an online shopping website that I guess would help mitigate at least some of that in any case their stock has actually climbed in recent months after recovering from a bottom which is probably what brewery was hoping for as it's a new position for him so he was likely trying to time the bottom but that ultimately leaves them up over 30% so far in 2019 however if we zoom out to get the long-term picture we can see that the stock has actually cratered by nearly 80 percent over the past five years after seeing stagnant sales for years that are also expected to decline over both of the next two years which is also coming off of an already declining year in 2018 as well I would honestly be surprised if burry holds on to this dog very long as they are clearly being disrupted and the fact that they opened their stores on Thanksgiving for the first time in history it's just another sign of them trying desperately to get customers to walk through those doors they do technically have a low forward p/e ratio of only 8 but their PG ratio is negative as their EPS is expected to decline by 4 percent a year over the next 5 years and that's even after having already declined by 28 percent on average over the past five years as well so I have to put this one in the deets here as there there's just no way that I feel comfortable investing in them long term but I will put them ahead of new Vectra as they have at least avoided bankruptcy okay that brings us to stock number 4 which is going to be Sportsman's Warehouse ticker symbol SP WH at over 14 percent of his portfolio and this is an outdoor sporting goods retailer similar to Dick's Sporting Goods which you may recall that them along with Walmart's have decided to stop selling firearms which analysts seem to be thinking that this will benefit Sportsman's Warehouse and help them maintain some of their healthy growth rates that they've been seen for years now which is kind of impressive especially for a retailer with physical brick-and-mortar stores their profits have really struggled in the past though with EPS growth over the past 5 years being relatively flats but analyst seems be very optimistic about their future potential as they expect EPS growth of over 20% over the next five years on average which leaves them with a very attractive PG ratio of less than one all of that optimism has led to their stock actually climbing by over 80% in 2019 after having fallen off a cliff in previous years as they are still up by only 5% over the past five years as a result again I'm not a fan of traditional retailers but I can understand why sporting goods stores are still alive given their more complex product offerings that many people are likely not comfortable buying online as well as the recent boom that they're likely seeing from gun sales still it's just not a stock that gets me excited about the future so I'll have to put them in the beats here for now and to be honest I cannot decide between putting them ahead or behind of cnq as I think sportsmen has the better valuation but cnq actually pays an attractive dividend but since I don't really like either one of them I guess I'll keep cnq in the front since I would at least be able to collect a dividend from them but honestly it's really a tie for me okay and finally we have a stock that I actually like over the long term in fact this is a stock that actually planned to own myself as soon as they dip a little and that's going to be Google ticker symbol is goog at over 16 percent of his portfolio and this isn't a company that needs any introduction they are the largest internet search provider in the world they have a growing cloud business they own YouTube which is why you're watching this video on right now and all of this has led to them commanding the most digital advertising market share in America even ahead of Facebook and that's a market that I fully expect to get bigger and bigger over time this has led to very strong performance for their business as they literally did over a hundred and thirty six billion dollars in sales last year and are still finding ways to grow at around 20 percent a year you just can't be that type of performance ultimately though this has led to a pretty high valuation as they trade for a forward p/e ratio that is 26 percent higher than the sector median whether pg ratio is close to 10 percent higher as well given that their stock has shot by over a hundred and fifty percent over the past five years but given their amazing business that in my opinion is only going to get bigger in the future with all of the valuable data that they continue to collect I can already tell that Google needs to be our s2 your stock of the day as I highly doubt that any other stock on the list even comes close to Google at least in my opinion okay having said that there are still two stocks left that we need to look at and coming in as stock number two that's going to be tailored brands ticker symbol TL Rd at over 21 percent of his portfolio now of course this is another retailer since it seems that Michael Bray really loves his retail stocks and they are famous for being the parents company of places like the Men's Warehouse and Joseph's a banks among other men's tailored and formal wear providers just like most other retailers though tailored brands is currently in the gutter as their stock has crumbled by over 60% in 2019 alone and close to 90% over the past five years and just like most of the other stocks on the list I'm guessing that brewery is hoping to catch the very bottom and write it up on a recovery I'm not sure when or if that will ever happen though as ER sales have been dropping for years and are still expected to continue doing so even into the future granted they do seem to have an extremely low valuation so I can see why brewery thinks that it's a good time to gamble on the stock but as a growth long-term investor there is no way that I could trust leaving my money in this stock over the long term truth be told I'm surprised their business isn't very sticky given that I'd expect anyone buying a suit would actually want to try it on in a physical store before purchase but for whatever reason they just really seem to be struggling to grow their sales maybe because of decreased mall traffic but in any case I'll have to put tailor brands down in the D tier as well but behind Bed Bath and bot and beyond since they seem to have slightly better performance and coming in at stock number one it seems very fitting that gamestop ticker symbol GME would be at the very top of his portfolio at over 27% given how much I already dislike all of the sudden you know almost all of the stocks on this list and gamestop has been one of those over the years that I just haven't seen any future potential and given how the entire gaming industry is moving to a more digital future and gamestop keeps trying to sell used physical games in brick-and-mortar stores this chart here from statisti illustrates just how bad it's getting for physical game sales as they are completely eclipsed by digital don't get me wrong I still purchase most of my games physically because I like to collect them and I'm also not a fan of this new kind of digital trend so I would actually love to see video game stores like Game Stop survive but my personal preference has you know zero value when objectively looking at these changing consumer trends not to mention that even when I do buy physical games I find much better deals at places like Best Buy and Amazon and I just never really see very many good deals at Game Stop so I don't even shop at Game Stop which is already kind of a bad sign for them at least in my opinion anyway the result for Game Stop has been them having to kiss their profits goodbye over the years as they have now lost over a billion dollars in just the past 12 months alone while their sales are also expected to plummet by almost 20 percent this year and then another 4% a year after I actually wouldn't be surprised if they see an uptick in their sales next year or the year after because of the launch of the new Xbox and Playstation home gaming consoles and given that brewery added this position this last quarter he might be taking a chance on that as well and it may be already working as the stock has climbed over 30 percent in the past three months but this is ultimately a stock that brewery has had positions in and out of so I wouldn't be surprised if he sells somewhere around here and keep in mind that the stock is still down about 50% in 2019 and over 80% in the past five years again I wouldn't be surprised if the stock is super volatile over the next couple of years because of the new console launches but over the long term there is no way that I could trust this stock and so for that reason I'll have to squeeze them into the DT razz well and I'll put them in front of tailored brands but behind Bed Bath and Beyond and because we never put any stocks in the 8th year or the seats here I'll have to bump up Canadian resources and Bath and Beyond by default so that leaves us with Google in the S tier which is like the clear clear stock that needs to go there Canadian resources in the a tier which kind of went up by default Sportsman's Warehouse in the beach here is I kind of just see them as average Bed Bath and Beyond in this seats here which was bumped up by default they really belong in the detail in my opinion and then gamestop tailored brands and new Vectra all in the detail which they absolutely belong in in my opinion obviously I'm not a big fan of Michael burries portfolio but hey that's okay we can all have our different opinions and of course our difference investing strategy which to be fair to Michael burry he's clearly much more of a short-term kind of value oriented trader whereas I'm more of a long-term growth investor so he's really like the polar opposite of what I am so I think it's natural that I would rank a lot of his stocks very low and actually only move a couple of them higher by default but that doesn't mean that he can't make profits off of his strategy if he is able to time the bottom on a lot of these stocks accurately and kind of ride back up a little bit of a bounce-back recovery then he can't actually make a lot of money as we kind of saw with some of the stocks that have climbed by a lot in recent months that have been falling over a longer term kind of picture but for me that's a strategy that is very risky and so it's one that I try to never really mess with it be very very rare that I would try to do something like what Michael burry seems to be doing but anyway what do you guys think about my rankings for his portfolio and his stocks do you agree with my overall assessment or would you make any changes let me know down in the comments section below and as always I hope that you guys enjoyed this video and if you did make sure you hit the like button and subscribe if you haven't already but thanks again for watching I really appreciate all the support and I'll catch you guys in the next one oh and by the way let me know which investors you'd like to see me do next down in the comment section as well anyway I'll see you guys later take care buh-bye
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