🚨 Michael Burry Says Retracement Then Crash To New Lows For Crypto, Bitcoin, Ethereum & Stocks!

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결론: 현재 비트코인·이더리움 반등은 신고가로 가는 본격 상승장이 아니라 하락장 속 약세 반등(리트레이스먼트)이며, 이후 신저점을 찍을 가능성이 높다는 입장. 마이클 버리 발언 소개: 과거 약세장 반등이 50% 이상 되돌린 뒤 신저점을 갈았던 사례(1930·1938·1946·1968년, 나스닥 2000·2002년 등)를 들어 현재 흐름도 같은 패턴일 수 있다고 주장. 진행자 전망: 비트코인은 4만~4.5만 달러, 희망적으로 5만 달러까지 오를 수 있으며, 이후 1만~1.2만 달러 신저점 후 2024~2025년 상승장을 기다리자는 시나리오. 이더리움은 약 3,500달러까지 반등 시 일부 익절 계획. 가격 근거: 2018년 이후 2019년 반등 패턴, 200주 이동평균 승수 기준 저평가, 네트워크 항복(capitulation) 지표가 과거 바닥 구간과 유사하다는 분석 인용. 알트코인·시장: 자금이 알트코인으로 흘러갈 수 있다고 언급. 스테이블코인은 USDC 시총 감소, USDT 증가 관찰. 리스크: 셀시우스 파산 절차 진행 중이며 CEO가 CEL 토큰을 매도한 점을 들어 CEL 보유자에게 매도 주의 언급. 금리 인상으로 고통이 남아 있다는 견해. 출연자 전망: 진행자는 역사적 패턴상 반등 후 추가 하락 가능성을 중심으로 보며, 신고가는 가능성이 낮다고 봄.

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01. welcome back to the thinking crypto podcast your home for cryptocurrency news and interviews if you're new here please hit that subscribe button as well as the thumbs up button and leave a comment below if you're listening on a podcast platform such as apple or spotify please give me a five star rating all right guys i want to talk about the bitcoin price and all coin prices as well and also what michael bury dr michael berry was famously uh his story was famously told in the big short movie what he's saying about the equity markets and of course we know crypto has been following the equity markets very closely there's high correlation so very important because we are seeing upward price movements for ethereum and bitcoin just a little bit bitcoin's lagging but the stock market is moving upward so what's happening here are we headed to new all-time highs is this a relief rally is this a retracement i want to break it down and what michael bury has to say first let's look at the market here we see bitcoin is looks like it's approaching 25 000 right now it's at 24 650 excuse me 699 dollars it changed as soon as i was speaking ethereum is approaching two thousand dollars it's at 1974 right now and we see ethereum is really leading this rally guys and you look at the ethereum chart from a weekly perspective it is green candles like non-stop grey candles here right looking very bullish um and bitcoin is kind of lagging behind and it is slowly making its way up and of course the stock market um has been looking very bullish as well so what can we expect in the short term well uh i want to share what dr michael bury has to say and once again he was very correct in shorting the mortgage uh and real estate market back in 2008 right it made it made him very famous and uh obviously obviously christian bale played him in the movie the big short so he tweeted out contrary to the internet and the twitter sphere there have been bear market rallies that eclipse 50 retracement and led to a lower low april 1930 november 1938 june 1946 and since 1950 november 1968 depends how you define a bear rally and or a cycle and life is greater than charts so uh he outlined here the charts and showing different uh rallies uh going back to like 19 uh the 1930s and then near the 1940s so he continues and says the nasdaq retraced greater than 50 and went lower in september 2000 and january 2002 the speculation we saw in markets in 2021 is only possibly matched by 1929 or the nasdaq in 2000 both of which were big crashes now 1929 was obviously huge right great depression and all that jazz uh dr bury continues he says and the 50 rule did not work during their either collapse so he's highlighting that what's happening right now is essentially a retracement and that lower lows are coming so i tweeted out and i said the following i think dr bury is correct here retracement playing out i hope it is greater than 50 so i hope the retracement the price jumps higher than 50 of the all-time highs and i said i will be taking profits then waiting for lower prices to fill my bags again and wait for the 2024 2025 bull market that is what i personally think is playing out here and this rally that's happening could be similar to what we saw in 2019 those of you who are here remember it um 2018 was brutal right we had the big correction and it dropped significantly near the end of 2018 but then come uh april 2019 we saw a bull rally moving up but that was not that was not a move to all-time highs that was like a 50 retracement and and this this is the bitcoin chart by the way and it just went halfway of what or near halfway of what we you know went to the all-time high in 2017 then it came back down and of course we hit newer lower low lows uh with the covet crash and so forth and then we had to wait some more before we went into another bull market which was 2020 to 2021.

02. so right now i think guys it's just a retracement that is taking place here and um you know it might move up to bitcoin may go to 40 45 000. i hope it touches 50 000 that would be great and then i think it's going to come back down and hit some new lower lows maybe go to uh between 10 to 12 000 chop around and then we we got to wait for 2024 for it to start moving back up again um i think that's what's playing out personally and my plan as i tweeted is to take profits as bitcoin moves and that all coins move ahead now like i said before ethereum is really leading this rally and i will be taking some profits on ethereum i hope it hits like 3 500 or so take some profits there and then uh hopefully the money the capital trickles down to the other alts such as uh you know your xrps your cardanos your solana look dogecoin in there right we've seen uh the bull market rallies guys and and i shouldn't say this is this particular rally is not a bull market rally uh uh you know i'm just using some bullish terms but it's it's really just some may call it a bear rally right so uh but it's a retracement a relief rally whatever you want to call it it is not a true bull market rally where we're going to new all-time highs that's what i personally think from my research and what i've seen happen historically now in the scenario where i am wrong and we go to new all-time highs i'm not going to be mad at that i'm going to be happy as hell because i'm here to make money just like all of you but i want to be realistic as well right what is realistically going to happen i'm leaning more towards retracement kind of what michael bury said here and i hope like he said it can be greater than 50 um you know that would be awesome and and then uh we'll see we'll see what happens guys but just be prepared and you know a lot of different analysts are seeing bullish signals once again not bullish signals to new all-time highs but rather okay we've seen the bottom and we're about to pop out uh and go to a you know a nice little bull run up and then you know maybe hit 50 percent come back down so titan of crypto said bitcoin is undervalued any investor who wants to buy bitcoin should use the two-year ma multiplier as it is as it helps to understand on a historically relative basis whether bitcoin is currently over or undervalued so this is the chart um showing the 200 week moving average multiplier and you can see here bitcoin way undervalued similar to the previous uh bear markets right and then you can see here this scenario i just talked about 2018 and then the pop-up in 2019 but then it went back down right um so i think something similar is happening here and we'll see how it plays out in towards the the coming months once again i hope we get that rally bitcoin maybe follows ethereum's move because of the ethereum merge the proof of stake so you have your narrative you have your narrative there for the crypto market right you had the narrative for the stock market where inflation so slightly was down a little bit it's still up significantly compared to years ago right but down and people thinking oh it's going to keep going down you know that's it we hit the top for that inflation but look the fed is going to keep raising rates and you're going to keep trying to push it down so uh there's still uh pain ahead but you know these relief rallies can be great for you to capture some profits and then uh like i said in my tweet as if the price keeps going down after that relief rally i'm gonna dca and continue to fill my bags and wait for the next bull market so here uh plan c tweeted out in the bitcoin is the bitcoin bottom in it looks like the major capitulation event that we stabilize and form our bitcoin bottom around has likely occurred showing here these different statistics of um the extreme network capitulation so in 2011 it was .84 2015.90 2018.84 2020.87 and as of june 18th 2022 0.84 and then he says unless of course this time is different so it's looking very similar to what happened in the past right these specific specific touch points and um you just see the bounce here on the charts so once again doesn't mean we're going to new all-time high could just be boom a relief rally upwards like in 2019 come back down touch new lows and then we got to be patient but certainly gives us opportunity to uh accumulate for the next bull market here's another great chart bitcoin the fifth grade bull run starts so this is super macro level this is looking at it from uh you know multiple years so essentially this analyst is saying the bottoms in and we're gonna slowly and steadily work our way up to the next bull run or a new all-time highs uh this one looking like you know we could be near the range of two hundred thousand dollars now that's not guaranteed we'll have to see how things play out but certainly plausible and you can see here on the chart it shows a relief rally shows that you know some pops here along the way and um and that's normal you're probably probably going to see a couple relief rallies before uh you know things get back into a really bullish um uh outlook now let's move ahead to some quick news uh paulo ardino who's the cto bitfinex and at tether tweeted out something uh today showing that uh the the funds that are or the market cap excuse me um is lowering for usdc and is rising for tether so maybe this this is kind of like the fear element being removed and people are moving back to tether i'm not sure but it's an interesting uh the charts don't lie here the data doesn't lie but you know there's going to be a lot of jockeying a lot of back and forth this competition happening which is good um finally this is not so good news celsius network is preparing for its second hearing in federal bankruptcy court but didn't that didn't stop ceo alex mashinsky from cashing out some of his cell token as the token surge in a community driven short squeeze attempt so guys if you're holding the cell token i'm not telling you what to do but you probably want to look at getting the hell out you know not financial or investment advice but if alex mashinsky's dumping uh things may not be good and obviously they're not good he's there in bankruptcy so this whole thing could fall apart well we'll have to wait and see what happens but it is what it is at this point um but anyway guys that's what i wanted to share with you uh dr michael berry's uh comments here i think he's spot on i think he's right here and uh just be prepared if you didn't take profits last year this could be your opportunity and uh you look we nobody knows the future can 100 would accuracy predict what's going to happen next but you want to look at the different thesis and look at which has the uh the probability of playing out right which has the highest probability of playing out so i personally think once again retracement then we go to new lower lows we just got to be patient as this chops and goes into 2024 2025 new all-time highs anyway do you guys agree with me let me know what you think leave your thoughts and comments below hit the thumbs up button share this video and i'll talk to you all later you