저자: dannyslifeandtravel · 외국인
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결론: AMD 주가는 단기 조정 중이지만 2017년 신형 라이젠·베가 출시 이벤트로 상승할 것이라는 낙관 견해. 단기 가격 흐름: 2월 13일 이후 AMD 주가가 13.49달러에서 하락 중이나 크게 걱정하지 않으며, 20달러 이상 갈 것으로 봄. 이벤트 일정: 미국 대통령의 날 이후 4일간은 특별한 재료가 없고, 테슬라·모빌아이 실적이 기술주에 부정적일 수 있다고 봄. 2월 27일 주간에는 GTC 발표와 라이젠 출시(2~3일)로 기대감이 커져 상승을 예상. 시장점유율 근거: GPU 시장에서 AMD는 14.4%(엔비디아 17.5%)로 소수 점유율이라 확대 여지가 크다고 주장. 2010~2016년 주가는 횡보 후 하락했으나 이를 긍정적으로 해석. CPU 시장: AMD의 CPU 점유율은 2016년 말 약 17.3%로, 과거 약 40%(또는 48%)에서 하락. 점유율이 40%로 회복하면 주가도 두 배가 될 수 있고 최소 26달러 수준까지 갈 수 있다고 봄. 경쟁사 악재: 인텔 아톰 C2000 버그가 여러 제조사 제품에 영향을 주어 인텔 자원이 분산되고 있어 AMD에 유리하다고 언급. 벤치마크 근거: 라이젠 5(1600X 계열)가 인텔 6코어 칩 대비 우위라는 벤치마크를 근거로 제시. 가격은 최고가 499달러, 최저 약 259달러로 인텔 최고급 칩(약 1,500달러) 대비 저렴하다고 강조. 출시·마케팅: 라이젠 출시는 3월 초 예정(루머 3월 2일), 2월 28일 이벤트 전후 기대감 형성. 점유율 회복을 위해 공격적 가격 전략을 쓴다고 봄. 마더보드 4년 호환 보장으로 파트너사 참여 유도. 리스크: 발언자는 옵션 거래에는 관심이 없고 현금으로 장기 보유한다고 함. 부정적 요소는 거의 언급하지 않음. 투자 전략: 장기 매수(보유) 견해이며 단기 주가 예측은 불확실하다고 인정. 출연자 전망: 주식은 매수 대상이며 현재 조정은 일시적이라는 낙관적 입장.
다듬은 글
hey guys welcome to another episode of D's life and travel and today we're going to do a quick update on the stocks on what's going on um on U the AMD stock that I'm invested in and again I apologize for the bloody lighting it's always terrible but um yeah so we're going to do a quick update on the stock and then I'll go through all the different um new stories and what's what are the coming events that are going to impact the the stock and make it go higher so firstly the stock itself so as you can see the stock has been going uh down so the 13th was a Monday so from that point onwards it's been going down but we're not worried because again I think it'll go to 20 or higher it's up you know it start off Monday at 13.49 and then start to decline it's not a huge deal I mean as you can see I've been through this before this huge decline from here all the way down then back up again so I'm confident it go up anyway so where do we go from here so firstly let's let's talk about uh what's been going on so in in the in the coming weeks so I'll just show you my um calendar if I can quickly so here's uh here's my calendar and as you can see we have uh next week is uh President's Day in America and then you have yeah four days here where for AMD there's nothing going on there may actually be a negative uh issue because um there's earnings for Tesla and mobile ey coming out and I I expect them to be negative really have a negative impact on the tech stock so you might actually go down so we have um four days where there'll be next to nothing I mean this is commodi is glenor so it doesn't affect it um and then the week after that that's when everything starts so we've got the 27th of um uh February and uh so we're going to have a presentation there at GTC and it's going you know for for all of that week there'll be presentations and so on and then there's going to be the riseon launch on the 2nd or the third so these two days at one point there'll be product launch there and again this still continue talking about it so for that week I expect the stock to go up I expect because there a lot going to be a lot of hype that's what's going to be happening let's go back to our um what do you call it the the tabs I have set up for the website so so firstly stock is going down but not to worry next thing is um what has been going on in the past so we've got 2016 at the end of 20 2016 you know we've got this news story from uh wccftech and um what they're saying is that to towards the end of 2016 um you know the the GPU Market increased for um Nvidia and AMD so you can see uh Green Team that's Nvidia uh and that's 17.5% increase um so uh so it's it's at 17.5% sorry at that at that point towards the end so it's had an increase and the red red team it's U at 14.4% so if you look at this chart yeah I think this is the most telling chart uh so far so the blue line is AMD so you can see it's been going down over the years you know this is from 2010 to 20 16 so for six years sideways and then going down so we're at this point now this I see as a positive because that means that we have the rest of this market right to to get to it so for the gpus at least right we have all of this to get to do you get it so because even though uh Intel is also doing you know Graphics integrated processes right we can still take that because you have to understand that if MD not only produces gpus but they also do CPUs and they do apus right so they do a lot and and plus they do custom uh CPUs as well for Xbox and all these different uh gaming companies so that we've got all this Market you know this big chunk to to gain so we can gain market share in this entire space here so that's that's really good this is one of the reasons why I invested in because I knew they had a a long you know they had a small piece of the pie they only at 14% or whatever it is and they're going to and they've got the rest of the pie to you know take a junk out of so there is that that point the next T I have set up here is for the the CPU side alone uh you know where it's been going so this has been the historically where uh am and um Intel have been so okay so I was saying the um so they they had the the a market share of 48% AMD had that and Intel had a 51% market share so over the years you can see AMD has been losing market share for CPUs a lot and it's down to what is it now 17.30% of the CPU Market is you know it's next to nothing again you know I see this as a positive because the CEO Alisa Su for AMD said they haven't had a CPU like this for 10 years you know so if you go back 10 years from 2016 10 years will or even further I mean it was at 40% market share and now we're we're at 17% right so at the very least you can double it you double 17 and get to 40 right um so if you if you can get to to to to 40 then that means the stock price should double as well so we're looking at what uh you know at least 20 26 something like that dollars a share so this again this is the the positive thing I see about the stock that it can go um it can go higher it's got all of this to get to you know it can get to to that level it can go higher so anyway so we got we got this situation going on um you know with the with the decline with AMD over the years of its market share of the CPU market and um also what else is helping the MD it's um Intel products so so right here we have uh an article from extreme Tech and it's it's showing that uh Intel atom C2 2000 bug right is killing products from multiple manufacturers so it's it's a bug in in the the products that they're selling um right now you know Intel has been selling and it actually just kills um the CPU so uh so it's it's a server CPU and it kills it right and it becomes a brick it becomes useless and it's costing them so much money to put this right so that's another positive thing that's uh helping um EMD because this is draining time resources attention away from um you know you know competing against EMD and they they've got issues so um what's next what else do we have that helps AMD so we also have benchmarking so because these products are going to be launched we've got the Horizon CPU being launched um uh you know basically in in March March the 3D um around that time right so far people are have been benchmarking this and benchmarking the CPU so what they do is they they get a ryzon CPU an AMD CPU and then they compare that to Intel CPUs and what they're trying to do is they trying to see which one is is faster right which is a better product right uh which is better to buy so right now we got the headline AMG rizon 5,600 uh times benchmarks faster than Intel's fastest six core right and keep in mind that the fastest six core is going to be expensive it'll be around $11,000 if not more so I think the most telling chart is this one here so it gives you gives you uh the positioning of it so if you see these are all the CPUs that's the highest end and that's where um you know the ryen one is above all the six core processes that they have um so it just says here you borrowed the above graph from Guru 3 Guru 3D and added the ryzen 5 uh to it for the the purposes of comparing it with the current fastest High n CPU assuming that turbo wasn't disabled and the chip was boosted to 3.7 GHz with the xfr it actually manages to out outpace both of Intel 6 core Broadwell East chips including the fastest SKU on the market the i7 U 6850k which has a boost clock speed of 4 GHz with Intel's turbo boost 3.0 technology the the ryzon 5 establishes a very impressive lead here performing every uh stock clocked Intel Broadwell EIP right and again this is the the the multi core so that was per core I think that was per for each core what the Benchmark is and this is for using multiple cores using all the cores maybe all six right and again it's coming in pretty high it's coming in at the High send um for all the so it says once again the ryzen 5 manages to outperform every other six core Intel chip out there and even manages to close on the uh you $999 8 core i7 uh 5960x extreme Edition as well e Flagship yeah this is incredible um this is a this is an incredible showing for the 1600x especially when uh we consider that it's uh a $259 chip so just think about that you know it's like 25% of the the price of um the the high the highest end you know chips set you know the the highest end processor so if you look at that you know I know it's it's getting close that it's not on power with it so I'm saying roughly uh 25% but still it's it's pretty impressive even if it was half the price is pretty impressive right and then you have all of these These are the the actual um processes for Ryon this is going to be all the products that they're going to launch and you have the highest price is $499 which is very very cheap you know in the UK that'd be about 350 quid or something like that and it's very very cheap um compared to Intel's highest end processor which is $1,500 so just think about that so again this you know it helps with the stock price a lot and this I think this is the best article so far from Seeking Alpha it actually shows you um what will happen so it says summary Ryon pricing the impact and and the March release review of horizon will uh come out February 28th and this will push the stock up and they they talk about how to trade in options uh I'm not really interested in options I mean because I just buy a stock with cash and just do it that way um because I can't predict where the price will go in the short term but I do know long-term where it's going to go based on basic you know you just research the company and you know what they're doing and hence you can figure it out you know it's not all that difficult um so let's see says uh it seems every day uh R more rumors are circulating about AMD new CPU ryzing in this article we're going to um we going to cover what is currently uh leaking out and then possibly um ways to play by stock options time wise AMD is set to release details of ryzon and teas some of its new GPU Vega uh at the February 28th uh cap saking and cream event well you know we have the GDC event and this is another event they're talking about so this is what I mean you know there's going to be events that's hype and that means you know the stock price will go up again um it tells you that the time of the the event what starts but so rumors recently we have noticed rumors concerning price points of um for rizon some have painted the picture that Ryon will be incredibly low priced um it's high it's high end eight eight core processor compared to Intel if this is true then Intel is going to have its hands for because amd's lineup uh line of products is going to uh be flying off the shelves AMD has priced its processes very aggressively on top of that that rumors point to AMD introducing 17 different flavors of ryzen um at very close price points here's a few um per wccftech.com so it's the same stuff again that we saw before but again at the highest end you can see 499 and it goes down down down to the lowest end yeah for each Series so again the close pricing of each processor encourages customers to bump up to the next processor why buy the two $29 $29 um when you can get the $259 uh CPU for just a few more bucks right and this makes good sense to do that so just trying to get as much money as they can out of it so why is it pric so aggressively now the very affordable price appears to be an attempt by MD to recapture market share again the graphs that I showed you before that's all the market share and I love it they're trying to go for that and trying to get as much as they can AMD needs to prove its ecosystem motherboards uh develop developers that it can move products so again they had I think many many different um you know companies making uh motherboards for for the CPU and they guaranteed that you can use the same motherboard for four years for the next CPU so they they must have had to deal with them they would have they would have said to them hey you know I know you're going to lose out you know on sales down the line because we're going to keep the same you know motherboard for four years you know for the next line but we will make it up to you in you know in volume you know we're going to show you that really you know we can sell the CPU so basically the more CPUs to sell the more the more motherboards boards will be sold and the more motherboards that are sold the more money those companies will make um and then but if they can't pull it off then I suppose that you know those companies will be pissed off of everything you know we went all out for you you know we we uh produced these boards and then we didn't make enough money out of it so why release in March so I think this is about taxation that over Christmas you know I think the Americans are talking a lot about taxes and how people pay taxes and um The Christmas spending spree as well so people have just recovered from the spending spree as well and they've just got a bit of money and they they'll be looking at upgrading so uh so launching Rising uh in early March gives AMD extra time to polish the CPU at the same time people are starting to get um early tax returns uh given the extra discretionary income some people will obviously use the money to upgrade to a new AMD system the rumor is for release of ryzen on March 2nd the official word from ryzen is early March so so this this just talks about options play longterm uh taking the The Long View AMD is a buy ryzen for customers Naples CPU for server and Raven R Apu are going to bring AMD back to the Forefront of the CPU ball Vega will bring them back to the high-end fight against Nvidia um driver assist deep learning and the Mystery Uh semic custom chips uh chip are all nice wild cards in the in in in in the worlds in the worlds yeah that don't make no sense but anyway um the point is that it's a buy the stock is a buy and it will be going up so it just it's all positive I don't see any any negative in there so that's what they're saying they're saying the hype will make this uh stock go up from the couple of weeks from now and then on top of that if you don't believe in the hype on its own there will be real results so you'll see it in um I mean my face is terrible you can't see it uh light is B again but you know you you you you'll make money anyone who buys the stock I think will make money on this so anyway guys back to the the chart I think it'll go higher it has gone above 14 before you look at the daily charts you know it's gone I think 14.6 somewhere but it has gone higher don't let me see if I can show you on here some people seem to think that you can't go any higher here look at that that's above 14 already so it's established that it can go above 14 14.16 there but on some of the charts has gone a lot higher so if you're in the stock stick with it got plenty of good news coming and um anyway I'm going to get off I think I've been on this video for long enough but if you have any questions please let me know um I hope you guys um found this video helpful so please like comment and subscribe if you like um and I'll see you in the next one D out see you later
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