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AMD 주가 상승 배경과 전망에 대한 개인 투자자 영상 요약. 결론: 채널 운영자는 AMD 장기 전망을 긍정적으로 보고 목표가 17~20달러를 유지한다. 최근 흐름: 주가가 약 11달러에서 14.17달러로 상승했고, 이전 암호화폐 관련 호재와 RX 580 출시 등으로 상승 후 되돌림이 반복되어 왔다고 설명했다. EPYC 서버 CPU 출시 행사: 주요 파트너(HP, 삼성, 인텔 아님, Microsoft Azure, Google, Baidu 등)가 무대에 올라 이미 신제품 서버에 EPYC를 탑재했다고 강조했다. 이는 실제 고객 채택 신호로 해석했다. 경쟁 구도: 인텔은 7월 말 신규 플랫폼을 내놓을 예정이나, 채널 운영자는 AMD의 싱글소켓 및 Infinity Fabric 기반 확장성이 우위라고 봤다. 인텔의 유사 기술 대응 시점과 성능은 아직 불확실하다고 언급했다. 공정 및 원가: AMD는 다이 수율이 약 80%로 높아 원가 경쟁력이 크다고 평가했다. 7nm 및 7nm+ 로드맵으로 다이 크기를 줄일 수 있다고 봤다. GPU 및 기타 호재: Instinct(AI), Frontier Edition(과학계산) 출시가 먼저 이뤄지고 RX Vega(게이밍)는 이후 출시 예정이다. 암호화폐 채굴 수요로 GPU 품절 현상이 있었고, 2분기 실적 시즌(약 한 달 후) 실적 상회 기대를 언급했다. 리스크: 주가는 과거 여러 차례 호재 후 되돌림이 있었다. 기술적으로는 20일선이 50일선을 하향 돌파했다가 다시 상향 돌파(골든크로스)한 상태로 설명했다. 또한 인텔 주가 하락 및 BofA 메릴린치의 인텔 투자의견 하향을 언급했다. 경영진/인물 발언: 짐 켈러의 AMD 복귀 및 테슬라 이동 가능성을 거론했고, 일론 머스크가 테슬라 칩 선택에서 엔비디아와 AMD를 두고 고민 중이라 언급한 바 있다고 소개했다. 과거 AMD의 자금난과 중국 IP 매각 자금 약 4억 달러 조달도 언급했다. 운영자 투자 태도: 단기 매매보다 장기 보유 관점이며, 시청자에게는 투자 판단을 본인이 하라는 입장이다.
다듬은 글
hi guys and welcome to another episode of kinda like the travel and today once again we have another update on AMD so what's been going on so past week Sox been going up you know we hit $14 fourteen point one seven as you can see there so past few days here down here it was around 11 and then we had the service CPU epic launch and it's gone oh now because of previous good news you had the cryptocurrency stuff and previous to that we had the rx 580 launch and all the rest of it you know all that good news every time you went up to head back down again so because of that I was very skeptical you know I thought you know it's going to be good news it's going to be great but then it's probably go back down again now there's still a possibility that that could happen right ahead of earnings and then on earnings example but the key point here was based on what we knew you know about the equity launch the service cpu launch that it was just that they're gonna launch to CPU we didn't what we didn't know was that they're going to bring out all the different partners at the ad so they had all the different partners on the stage you know and the ones that we were aware of were I think there was Microsoft was Google and Baidu I think those two I think not one group sent also on Google but that was Baidu definitely so we knew that there were a couple of partners there but we didn't know the full extent of it so they brought out HP HP Samsung and you know Intel Microsoft Azure and all these different partners and the what what was better you know what was really interesting was that they had already put the epic CPU within their products they showed off the new products that they were going to launch themselves so they had new products new servers to add the epic CPU in there so because of that you know it was really interesting so not only are they saying that we have a product that we're selling but what they're saying is we have already got customers that are buying this I'm putting it into their integrating into their service and setting their service to their customers so it's like saying I have a product and this is my sales force so my sales force includes you know you know all these different companies HP Samsung's own and when they provide services to their customers including by doing everyone else they are selling our product you know in in a sense even though they're just selling Europe no capability if you know what I mean so somebody has some data they want to run or something they want to run on a server they can then rent that server space for a period of time and the only way they're able to do that is because of the epic server CPU ways so one of the key things they said was they you know because it's scalable you know because it's um it's got infinity fabric so it's got multiple CPUs on there basically this rising CPU four of them stuck together to make one epic service epu so because of that they could you know utilize a small portion of it and not use all of it or use all of it or if you need more than one service CPU they can then connect you know to multiple service EP use I use even more processing power like that so because of this you know they can offer more competitive pricing when their pricing for their customers and allowing them to use the capability of the of the service cities so this was really interesting at all really good do you think that it reminded me of was ah you know everyone was saying that intel has purely a nice pearly or poorly why don't I draw out an answer but they have this new platform that's coming out end of July with new CPUs now those CPUs rain from I think it's new CPUs up to 8 CPUs like that a cause and there's no single socket CPU platform there and you know AMD toes are the single socket CPU platform with the single socket CPU and then again you know that's interchangeable so for coming generations they're going to you can operate it so you can just take out see if you can take epic out and then put the next one in you know wherever that is so on the roadmap I forget what they are I think that's Milan and developed a tallien Cities is named after them but you can basically is future proof for a number of years you can do that sounds really interesting you know so you can cut down the cost and they were saying that Intel has a new platform coming out so that's going to be a big challenge for AMD I don't see that happening I don't see how it will be a big challenge because as soon as I came out I started researching like really trying to see if it was a threat because in the end you know this is one of the biggest bets that in AMD as you know intel has about 99 98 99 percent of the market on this and AMD really wants to get I think they will get a big chunk of that you know the numbers were like 20 25 percent plus hopefully so we'll see where it goes but we the the one thing that they don't have Intel doesn't have and same was with in the video on the GPU side they didn't have the infinity fabric with AMD cassava which allows it to scale up on the service if you use and on the GPU side as well and this gives them a huge advantage and this is what really got me excited about it it made everything look doesn't matter what they what the others bring out they won't be able to compete because I are they you know try to compete their day building bigger and bigger dice bigger and bigger processor dies and when they do that it costs them more money and then when they when they produce it you know at the foundry level they always have like an a certain amount of the process that don't go actually work so with AMD they have 80% of the unity processes on the other wave for that and are usable but most of them you know the bigger you get the more expensive it gets on the you know the less quantity you get in and this average is more than 50% so if you feel producing the and the processes and you get 50% 50% or more that usable that's considered good AMV seen eighty percent which is amazing right and I don't think Intel or Nvidia will get anywhere near that so it will cost them so what it boils down to is that it'll cost somewhere more to produce so they can't be AMD on price and so because of that AMD will be ahead on price always and then ask for clock speed and you know the the power consumption and so on you know AMD is going to be going for seven nanometer 7 nanometre + and next year and the year after that and that will bring the die size down even smaller and again you know because they able to use infinity public your scale it up so it could be even more powerful and so they'll be you know on instructions per clock and the power efficiency and so on against Nvidia AMD I think for GPUs and CPUs going forward and then you know nobody can basically compete with them on you know their and the quality of the CPU and GPU and the power consumption on the price so they've given it all the targets and then they go I think for GPUs about Navi coming out as well in the next I think year and it makes you some time on the seven nanometer so again all of this set up is is looking amazing is looking really really good but again you know as for this talk you know it's not always the good news that takes it up you know I did just take you briefly but then it can chew back down again I mean the thing about kiltie is good for short-term you know for their trading I don't day trip so no because I'm not good I you know the moment I sell out is the moment that it goes up right even the apartment profit so I leave money on the table so I have my set price in my head which in my last video I said to you guys even when it was 11 or 10 I was saying my price tag is 17 to 20 dollars right but if the if it is true with Navi what I'm thinking right so in the coming years then this dog could be worth a lot more right I'm not the only person saying this I mean I think it's Jim criminals saying is for inaudible I was talking what he says but he did say that AMD's worth a lot more than what people think is worth so I think going forward they've got real edge and there was another story about Jim Kelly Jim killer was a guy who cleared the first what was it AMD 64 processor way back I mean this was in 2000 when the stock went to 41 43 46 dollars you know per share and he created it was really fast you know and he was a purse guy so he also designed risin ah he came back he designed and now he's gone over to Tesla and the rumor was that everywhere Jim Keller goes that's why AMD goes in a way SOI if Jim Keller's designed the CPU our AMD and then he goes over to Tesla then pretty soon Tesla will be using AMD products you know in the cars so far they're using the video products Nvidia CPUs and GPUs but they're saying that he's you know because of him they probably will use AMD folks and I did I do recall you know listening to because I listen to a lot of earnings calls and a lot of conversations by CEOs and I remember Tesla CEO Elon Musk saying at one point that is a very close call between the video and AMD when it comes to which products they use is a very close call so I think at that time the reason why I was so close was because the you know AMD was going to a part of patch you know they had the the issue with their well the company nearly went bankrupt last year so they then they're on our money essentially so I had to sell some IP to China and get about 400 million dollars and then you know basically keep going after that but I think all the hard work has been done to an extent on the other leapfrogging method where they have three teams working one team working on the current generation one team working on the next generation of cpus and gpus and then one team working on the generation beyond that so there's a leapfrog thing going on so because of all that I think they'll be fine I think where everybody else will have to build bigger and bigger guys spend more and more money burn a lot more cash these guys can be a lot more efficient and just scale up using infinity fabric now they're saying that Intel is going to get something they're gonna bring out something that's similar to infinity public later on maybe end of this year early next year but we still don't know how how well that works we know VM B's infinity fabric works and it works well but we don't know about Intel's siding on does it work I think they call it mesh but if they can't get that right then click on complete oh I don't think of it because most law is coming to an end so it's nearly the nanometer size it's not going to get any smaller radium it's gone to 5 nanometers I think the smallest and beyond that it's kind of stuck it's going to be a long way for anything smaller I think but we'll wait and see and I could be wrong enough but the key point is at the very least slowing down significantly if it's not completely stopping and that means you have to find other ways to you know speed up the processes and get things done and simply building bigger and bigger dies is not going to work the Infinity fabric is the only way I see so we'll see what happens so overall we've got a good week you can see a lot and then I'll just go through the headlines is quickly so this is about Rhydian instinct so they had for the GPU side they had the three graphics card cards at the frontier addition they had the instinct and then they had the RX Vega so the frontier edition was for the scientists you know the big weeks to do big equations and so on the instinct one is for AI you know artificial intelligence and so on and then vehicle con people gaming so they they are they are launching we have already launched so we depicted the launch ready on instinct and the frontier edition is going to come out I think end of this month so it's all coming out the ones that are going to make on the most money are coming out first and then RX Vega which is gaming is going to come out later on so that's good news for them they can get the money in first use up money wisely and then fund the R&D and move forward and hopefully that saw in the you know in the in the revenue in earnings the other thing was a crypto mining is still going apparently and people saying that there's you know the the GPUs have been sold out on Amazon and Newegg and everywhere else so we'll have to see in earnings if that's that's going to make a big impact but really everybody I think at this point is expecting an earnings beat I mean I am expecting as well so on it should be earnings because we had didn't have that factored in and the response to epic has been pretty good as well and I know a bit you won't show up in the earnings so far for quite some time but you've got risin that's been going on for quite a long time now for Morrow months and then you've got the GPUs of 5 80s for colleagues for 80s and 5 80s so that should show up definitely so that should be good well so we go this is about the epic launch so I pick beats competition in terms of performance and power produces total cost of ownership in case selling points 10 nanometre purely isn't enough to save intel server dominance so this is the same thing that I was thinking before so we're doing pretty good this week just gonna wrap this up quickly I know if I've rushed through a little bit today but I was hoping to just get the points across try and make these videos a little bit shorter to be informative and add value but I hope you guys in so far but I think going forward the stock could go down to some extent but it has it's got a boost you know so it's not what it used to be before and we just go to the summary page and just show you guys and this yeah oh I forgot to mention as well before I do that Intel on the back of this launch for epic Service CPUs Bank of America Merrill Lynch downgraded Intel so this isn't Intel saw or a year on EHR and it's at $34 so it's been lying down so people I think people know that you know they're going to take a beating on this it's not going to you know come out of this one you know without taking some some damage so let's go over to AMD for a minute so you can see on this it's gone to six month one so this is where I dropped off a cliff I couldn't justify this didn't know why this happened obviously they were saying that it's going to be rebounding so rebounded to some extent he always does if it falls to that extent then it's going to rebound to some extent and this was a real test where it could go further down but you know we had the cryptocurrency boom couple rope and then we have the epic launch which is brought up to here and we've either first light correction one Friday one point 46% down but it's nothing huge and it looks like from here the momentum has picked off or maybe even resumed and one the key things are tells us this is you know I don't only do technicals but technicals here it was a negative we're at the 20-day moving average going under the 50-day moving average so that wasn't a good sign and you saw everything you know before this everything was above the moving averages here above the moving averages and then it goes below the moving averages below the moving averages pretty much and then here is going up against now you've got a crossover again here where there's the 20-day moving average going above the 50-day moving average and then again here so that's a negative isn't it that's 100 day moving average so this one where it's actually gone over so it signals basically a turnaround that the stock could go higher they call it a golden cross so that's what they're saying it could go higher so I think it can go higher than this I've maintained my price target 17 to 20 dollars guys if you're in it stick with it if you're not in it you can buy I mean somebody messaged me I think they left a message on my videos when should I buy up sold out I said - it doesn't matter to me you know because I do long-term I'm not doing short-term trading it's a matter to me when you buy I think I'll cope regardless you know if you if you have a long enough time horizon you make mine I could have made you know quick money curse all out here I did think about of the warnings and then you know put in here sold here and you know I won't think like that you could click on that but India there's no way for me to know equal gone higher here cocaine higher here is all good news you know here is good news here this isn't justified so I could describe higher so you know you never know so if you if you believe in something you think that the companies steamroll you think they can up good earnings going forward and remember this is second quarter earnings are coming up in a month's time and then after that we've got q3 and q4 left and those are the best earnings for this company because you've got back to school sales and then you got end of year Christmas sales and so on so you know it's all there I think they will do well and you will make money to you if you get into this if you're not in it money doing it stay with it so guys I'm gonna end it there and I spend a long video so you guys take care I'll see you next time once again links in in the description below if you interested in the books again and please like subscribe and comment you guys see later turning up
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