저자: CathieWood · 외국인
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결론: 미국 경제는 이미 경기침체(리세션) 국면이거나 2023년 내 침체가 확실하며, 인플레이션은 정점을 지나 디플레이션 가능성까지 있다. [캐시 우드 - ARK Invest] 연준이 후행지표(연간 CPI 8%대, 고용)에 의존하고 있으며, 선행지표는 가격 하락을 가리킨다. 수요 파괴가 진행 중이며 여름 휘발유 수요는 1997년 이후 25년래 최저 수준이라고 주장. 미국 코어 PCE는 2월 5.3%에서 4.6%로 하락했고, 우드는 향후 6개월 내 월간 디플레이션이 여러 달 나타날 수 있다고 전망. 인플레이션은 예상보다 크게 낮을 것으로 봄. 연준이 아직 신호하지 않은 완화(피벗)가 올 것으로 보며, 연말 소비 시즌이 이를 가늠할 지표가 될 것이라 언급. 기술 비용 하락(구조적 디스인플레이션)도 장기적으로 물가 하방 압력이라 주장. 중국·유럽 경기 둔화와 에너지 가격 부담으로 글로벌 디플레이션 압력이 크다고 진단. 달러 강세는 안전자산 선호(플라이트 투 세이프티) 때문이며, 일본·중국의 외환시장 개입(달러 매도·자국통화 매수)이 사실상 연준 완화와 유사한 유동성 효과를 낸다고 해석. [켄 그리핀 - Citadel] 인플레이션은 정점일 수 있으나 미국 경기침체는 거의 확실하다고 봄. 침체 시점과 강도만 문제라고 주장. 우크라이나 핵전쟁 위협, 중앙은행 개입, 고인플레이션 등으로 매우 불확실한 시기라고 진단. 2023~2024년 이전에 연착륙(소프트랜딩)은 어렵다고 봄. [스탠 드러켄밀러 - 억만장자 헤지펀드 매니저] 2023년 중 침체가 거의 확실하며, 침체가 평균보다 클 수 있고 "매우 나쁜" 상황도 배제하지 않음. 연준의 QE에서 QT로의 전환과 자산 버블 해소가 리스크라고 지적. 영국 중앙은행의 국채 매입 등 중앙은행 대응이 이어지면 극단적 상황에서 암호화폐 역할이 커질 수 있다고 언급했으나 본인은 암호화폐를 보유하지 않는다고 밝힘. [리스크] 연준 긴축 장기화, 중앙은행 대응 방향 불확실성, 지정학 리스크(우크라이나) 및 글로벌 디플레이션. [출연자 전망 요약] 우드·그리핀·드러켄밀러 모두 경기침체를 전제하며, 인플레이션 하락과 연준 피벗 가능성을 언급.
다듬은 글
Well, I think they have been basing their outlook and their policy on two lagging indicators. It seems they've been paying more attention to the CPI year over year, which is still over 8 percent, and employment. Both of those are lagging indicators. The leading indicators, which are all in the pipeline and easy to see right now, are all saying that prices are going to come down. With two of Europe's largest economies caving to inflation pressures in the past week, more and more market experts are warning investors to expect a prolonged recession within the next six to 12 months.
During the week, ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood, Citadel CEO Ken Griffin, and renowned billionaire hedge fund manager Stan Druckenmiller warned investors about the current trajectory of the U.S. economy amid the ongoing global economic meltdown. Speaking on CNBC's Squawk Box earlier in the week, Wood discussed her expectations for interest rates and inflation in the months ahead. According to the popular investor and portfolio manager, the U.S. Federal Reserve is overlooking key economic indicators that signal months of deflation. She added that demand is being destroyed at an alarming rate, and that if the Federal Reserve continues with its aggressive rate hikes, investors have to be ready for a more severe economic downturn.
In the same vein, Citadel's Ken Griffin says inflation may have peaked, but a recession is almost a certainty for the U.S. economy. "We are in a very uncertain time for investors," Griffin warned on Wednesday, adding that the Federal Reserve is grappling with a level of inflation we haven't seen in a long time. Like Wood, Griffin does not believe we could get a soft landing before the economic situation begins to ease up in 2023 or 2024.
Now let's take you to Wood's clip. Please watch, share, and like this video. It's very interesting to hear people saying we'll be able to skirt a recession. We believe we are in a recession. The durable goods orders we just saw, we're seeing strength there because of activity being attracted to the U.S., a flight to safety. That's why our dollar's been going up as well. Nonetheless, we think we are in a recession. We're seeing tremendous demand destruction. You see demand for gasoline over the summer down to 25-year lows, 1997. Think about that. So lots of demand destruction, and we believe it will continue.
The good news here is to hear Michael Evans this morning talking about, hey, we're all on the same page, this could be done in the first three months of next year. Well, if the market is the discounting mechanism that it should be, then it should be discounting the peak in interest rates. Yes, inflation peaked. We believe core inflation peaked at 5.3 percent. This is the PCE deflator that the Fed supposedly pays the most attention to. 5.3 in February, it's down to 4.6. And with all of the price declines we are seeing out there, whether it's in retail because of too much inventory, or further up the pipeline with commodities really falling out of bed, we think the inflation rate is going to be surprisingly low. We would not be surprised to see deflation month to month, sequentially, for a number of months during the next six months.
Does that mean you are betting that the Fed eases up in a way they have not signaled thus far? Absolutely. I think they do not appreciate how much demand destruction has taken place out there. But this holiday season, I think, will be telltale in that way. So I do think we're looking at a major pivot. If we're right that deflation, and we've been saying this for a while, so consider the source, but if we're right that deflation, both for cyclical reasons and for secular reasons, we all we do is look at technology and the cost declines associated with different technologies, and they're massive. So we think that inflation during the years ahead is going to surprise significantly on the low side of expectations.
Well, I think they have been basing their outlook and their policy on two lagging indicators. It seems they've been paying more attention to the CPI year over year, which is still at over 8 percent, and employment. Both of those are lagging indicators. The leading indicators, which are all in the pipeline and easy to see right now, are all saying that prices are going to come down. Inflation certainly will come down, but I think the big surprise out there is the number of months we will see actual deflation, negative prices. And it's not just because of the U.S. In fact, we're benefiting from the flight to safety from the rest of the world. What's going on in China is highly deflationary. What's going on in Europe, the same. This energy is a huge tax on that continent.
One of the other things that's happened in the last week that I think is fascinating is that both Japan and China have basically supported their currency, and they're basically saying "no más." And in order to do that, what are they doing? They're selling dollars and buying their own currency. So effectively, China and Japan are doing some of the easing that we think the Fed will do, increasing dollars in the system. One believes that countries like China, Japan, the United Kingdom, and Germany putting a hold on quantitative tightening will trigger a similar move from the Federal Reserve, despite Chairman Jerome Powell's insistence that that will only happen when inflation drops significantly.
What do you think about Wood's assessment of the U.S. economy? Please drop your replies in the comments section. As stated earlier, Cathie Wood is not the only one calling attention to the risk of further economic decline. The founder and CEO of global investment firm Citadel, Ken Griffin, has discussed similar sentiments while speaking at the CNBC Delivering Alpha conference on Wednesday. Griffin said, "It is a very uncertain time. We are grappling with the threat of nuclear war in Ukraine, unprecedented central bank interventions, and record-high inflation in the United States. We are in very uncertain times for investors." He also gave his expert opinion on whether the U.S. economy will go into a recession. He stated that there would be a recession, adding that it is just a question of when and how hard.
In addition to Wood and Griffin, billionaire hedge fund manager Stanley Druckenmiller has warned U.S. investors about the possibility of a recession in 2023. The billionaire investor believes that the Federal Reserve is responsible for the current state of the economy, and that its aggressive rate hikes will not end well for the U.S. economy. Here's a short clip from the interview: "I will be stunned if we don't have a recession in '23. I don't know the timing, but certainly by the end of '23, I will not be surprised if it's not larger than the so-called average garden-variety. And I don't rule out, not my forecast, but I don't rule out something really bad. Why? Because if you look at the liquidity situation that has driven this, we're going to go from all this QE to QT. We're following an asset bubble. We've been doing all this running down on the SVB, which is now..."
At the Delivering Alpha conference on Wednesday, Druckenmiller also discussed the role of cryptocurrencies in the next era of the global economy. Reacting to the news of the Bank of England buying 65 billion pounds of UK bonds, the billionaire investor predicted that cryptocurrencies would take on a big role if things get really bad and other central banks make similar moves. However, he also revealed that he doesn't own any cryptocurrencies. "It's tough for me to own anything like that with central banks tightening," he disclosed.
Do you think the United States is already in a recession, or heading for one within the coming months? Please let us know what you think and how you are preparing in the comments section below. Also, be sure to subscribe so you get notified every time we upload a video. Thanks for watching.
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