저자: MarkMobius · 외국인
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결론: 인도 증시는 중장기적으로 우상향하며, 고금리 환경에서는 레버리지 높은 기업을 피하고 고ROIC·무부채 기업에 투자해야 한다. 인도 시장 전망: 5년 내 Sensex가 100,000까지 갈 것으로 본다. 단기 조정 가능성은 있으나 누구도 예측할 수 없으므로 적립식(달러 코스트 애버리징) 투자를 권한다. 금리 환경: 금리가 4~5% 수준이라 투자자들이 채권으로 이동하며 증시가 횡보·약세였다. 조정이 올 수 있으나 이것은 예측이 아니다. 기업 리스크: 고금리로 차입 의존 기업이 큰 어려움에 처할 것이며 이런 기업은 피해야 한다. 시장은 고금리 장기화에 적응하며 승자와 패자가 갈린다. 자금 흐름: 인도 시장은 인도 투자자가 주도하며, 해외 자금 유입도 기대된다. 인도 정부가 외국인·개인 투자 진입장벽을 낮춰야 한다고 지적. 중소형주: 최근 인도 스몰캡·미드캡이 대형주보다 좋은 성과를 냈고, 본인은 중소형주에 투자하고 있으며 여전히 가치가 있다고 봄. 신규 테마가 형성되고 있음. 섹터: 기술을 활용해 효율을 높이는 기업, 인도 IT 서비스 기업은 성장 여력이 있으나 일부는 도태될 것. 인터넷 기업 섹터도 재평가 중이며 AI 활용이 큰 기회. 제조/반도체: 중국 플러스원 흐름 속에서 인도는 소프트웨어에 이어 고급 반도체 하드웨어 허브가 될 것으로 전망. 장기 리스크: 가장 큰 우려는 기술·인터넷 연결망에 대한 해킹 등 정보 흐름 중단 위험.
다듬은 글
thanks so much for tuning into to this conversation a very special conversation with a very special man somebody who knows India's India and EMS very very closely Mark Mobius with me me in a plain Jane gray suit and Mark mobus in this lovely Pink Suit Mark so good having you thanks for taking the time out pleasure being with you do you decide the colors of your suit based on the market sometimes it's a light blue it's a white it's a pink yeah that's right I love the combination of blue and pink okay so I try that okay great looking very smart thank you so Mark uh tell us U are risk assets currently looking worthwhile valuable or are the headwinds just too large for risk assets by and large well you know there'll always be headwinds there's no question about it and people have got to keep in mind when you're investing uh the best time to invest is when you have money but investing means investing with the knowledge with research with patience and the you know you can say oh I'm afraid the sensex is going to correct tomorrow well you don't know whether it's going to correct it may go up so you're best to to do dollar cost averaging in other words putting money in at different periods I do believe that uh in the next 5 years however the sensex will probably go to 100 th000 and uh with that in mind if you believe that then it's best best best time to invest got it and and I'll come to that conversation as well and I'm presuming that uh all of us agree that timing the market is a Mars game but I'm still trying to understand do the headwinds currently which is the yields the geopolitics so on so forth make you believe that tactically there could be better times a few months down the line there's no question there's a great sucking sound taking place now okay because with interest rates at 5% or four or 5% um a lot of people are thinking hey why should I be in the stock market I should be putting my money into bonds so that's the reason why you've seen a lot of these markets moving sidewards and maybe a little bit down so yes uh probably there would be a correction coming along but it's not that's not a prediction no one really knows agree compl completely uh are uh there is a lot of talk of how the higher yields would lead to a problem for emerging market companies which have to refinance their debt B in 24 and 25 is there a clear and present danger definitely this is one of the things I've been telling the people look uh you know we go by the the criteria of a high return on Capital and low or no debt MH because with interest rates at 5% a lot lot of the companies that have been relying on Leverage are going to be in big trouble so you got to get out of those companies okay and and and with all of this in mind you still believe that over the next five years as you said sensex reaches 100,000 and India if I'm not WR might still be a market to reckon with relative to a lot of other em well actually India will probably become bigger and more important in the context uh if you look at the emergency markets index uh you'll see that China dominates or at least before even with the correction China is big but India I think is going to be coming up you're going to see India becoming much larger okay there's a a lot of salside broker firms Global in nature talk to us about how uh there is Oodles of money waiting on the sidelines FBI has have made uh rather the applications for getting registered in India and we post made 2024 elections getting over we might actually see a delusion of money coming into India everything else going right is that something that you subscribe to Wi though yes uh you must remember the Indian market is driven by Indian investors first and foremost right and there's a lot of money that's coming into the market from Indians and of course then added to that you'll see the foreign investors coming in but I think it's very important for India to make it easier to to uh try to eliminate some of the uh barriers to investing that's been a perennial complaint from a lot of Global Investors some ground has been covered you think a lot more remains or some nigg some small niggles a lot more has to be covered in other words it's got to be easier for not only institutional investors but foreign investors individual investors uhhuh to invest okay top of your mind anything that you you reckon something should be done I mean there's a budget coming up at some point of time for example U I would love to open a personal account in India and bring money in and get it out that's not possible now okay and then some other school okay uh Mark the other thing is you you've uh all through the years that I've heard you you've been a big proponent of smaller companies getting bigger maybe across the world but definitely in India we've seen the last 6 9 12 months Indian small caps and Indian midcaps do far better than what the larger companies have done maybe because of the individual flows maybe because of the Sip flows so on so forth is that music to the espu yes definitely because that's where we're investing exactly we invest in the small and medium cap socks right and and you still believe that there is Merit out there desite absolutely yes so I I mean without getting into necessarily specific names or Etc but there's a lot of newer themes that have gotten formed at the mid capap and the small cap and in India and then there were the existing themes as well what within this universe EX cites you the most where is it that you're parking money what themes companies with technological expertise now that I don't just mean uh software companies but companies that are using technology to improve their efficiency and their profitability uh nowadays uh the big challenge for every company is how to use technology intelligently to improve their behavior and their operations so for example let's say you're running a restaurant are you using a delivery service are you using uh the internet to promote your brand these are all the kinds of questions we ask when we look at companies okay well that that end of the business which is the provider of technology and the delivery service as well has come off age I mean the internet companies in India has become a very large and a pronounced sector there's a lot of naysayers around that space but they're now coming back do you like that pocket definitely terrific opportunities software companies in India are doing very very well you mean the IT service company it Service Company is incredible and there's going to be more growth in that area however there are a lot of players exactly you got to be careful exactly some of them are going to fall by the wayside uhhuh so you got to again pick and choose but it's a sector that's been around for 20 25 years uh and now a mature sector you still fear that some companies might actually Fall by the way you must remember the SE has been around a long time but the sector itself is changing okay because in the past it was more like accounting software uh that Personnel software now you're talking about the internet and you're talking about Ai and how it can be utilized these are all huge sectors huge opportunities got it uh last three questions mark one is on um India being that manufactur hub for for the world in some fashion the China plus one call it near Shoring as well for certain areas uh that has been a pronounced chatter in the last 12 to 18 months are you a proponent of that as well do you believe such companies would benefit definitely I think uh India is going to become India already is a leader in software globally which is Services yes no question now it's going to become a leader in Hardware okay and I'm talking about very sophisticated semiconductors this will become a big sector in India and the Indians have the intelligence the capability the the wherewithal to be able to create that okay well that's that's great to know I'll end with two macro questions mark if you allow me sure we started off with the headwinds for the market uh just wondering if indeed the yields and the interest rates Stay Don't Go much higher from here but stay higher for longer is that a headwind for emerging market equities for software related businesses so on so forth or will the markets come to terms with it uh it will be a headwind for companies that depend on finance MH that cannot generate their own finance that would be the problem companies that have to borrow that need outside Finance they're going to be in trouble okay that's the reason why we like companies that have high return on Capital because because they'll be able to generate their own Capital so you've got to there's going to be a bifurcation of the market between those with high debt and the necess necessity for High Finance and those that are not that's going to be very important very very crucial Point uh for the market at large though is that a capping headwind or you think the market will come to terms with it come Market will come to terms with it higher for longer Market will come to terms with there'll be losers there'll be winners and of course the winners will rise to the top got it um final question you are sounding or the medium-term constructive what is the biggest worry or what is it that can really play party pooper to this um quote unquote bullish sentiment for India and Emerging Markets uh the biggest worry I have is really related to uh uh the technological sector particularly the internet and the interconnection the Global Connect interconnection that is taking place and now with AI the speed of communication is becoming so rapid so fast that you're getting uh the the danger of an interruption it could be hacking it could be some other kind of interruption in the flows of information that could be a real big risk for the globe in general something we have to watch very very carefully with those words of wisdom Mark moas take a moment to thank you for speaking to us today really appreciate thank you very much and viewers thanks for tuning into this conversation
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