Jim Cramer breaks down recession fears — 'I think the yield curve linkage is wrong'

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결론: Cramer는 장단기 금리 역전(경기침체 신호)을 근거로 한 경기침체 우려를 잘못된 연결고리로 보며, 주식이 여전히 최선의 투자처라고 주장한다. 시장 개요: 채권 금리 하락이 주식 하락을 부추기고 있으며, 이는 과거 유가·달러 연결고리와 같은 잘못된 상관관계라고 주장한다. 최근 주가는 하루 121포인트 하락, 약 0.32% 하락 수준이라고 언급했다. 금리 역전: 외국 자금이 미 국채로 유입되면서 단기금리가 장기금리보다 높은 역전이 발생했다. 미 3년물 금리는 2% 미만이지만 독일보다 약 2%p 높다고 설명했다. 역전은 나쁜 징조지만 이번엔 이례적(anomaly)이라고 봤다. 과거 연결고리 실패 사례: 유가 하락 시 매도하라는 논리는 공급 과잉 때문이었고, 유가 회복은 인플레이션 우려→연준 긴축으로 이어졌다. 달러 강세 연동 매도 역시 상관관계가 허구였다고 주장했다. 산업재·기술주: 산업재와 경기민감 기술주는 고점 대비 크게 하락해 이미 경기침체를 반영한 것처럼 거래되고 있다고 분석했다. 무역 및 정치: 중국과의 무역합의가 경기침체 우려를 해소할 유일한 요인으로 보았다. 트럼프 행정부의 관세로 Hasbro 등 기업이 중국 생산을 옮기는 중이다. 2020년 민주당 집권 가능성이 높으며, 조 바이든이 상대적으로 시장 친화적, 샌더스·워런은 건강보험 기업(휴마나 등)에 불리하다고 언급했다. 금리 전망: 금리 하락은 소비자에게 이득(저금리 주택 대출 등)이며, 경기 회복 신호(고용 증가, 노동참여율 상승, 인프라 지출)가 나와야 상황이 개선된다고 봤다. 개별 종목: 웬디스(Wendy's)는 여전히 선호 성장주로 약 16포인트 상승 여지를 언급했다. 대형 은행은 금리 역전 우려로 당분간 하락할 수 있어 매수를 권하지 않았다(Bank of America 저평가 인정). Splunk 등 빅데이터 관련 기업과 네슬레 실적 관련 언급이 있었다. 리스크: 시장이 금리 역전에만 집중해 과도하게 하락할 수 있고, 무역 협상 실패 시 경기침체 우려가 실현될 수 있다.

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01. have money welcome to clay mark I'll do one make friends of his educating I have finally figured it out it's a real in a while but I figure it out this market is like a neat little baby not a cute baby the other kind of baby I love my kids but I especially love them now that they're adults this market is not an adult it's a wailing crying infant and even when he gets his own way as it did this morning it's never content so after day with the average of Cecil up and down a classic pastime for small children with the daily slipping 121 points doesn't be declining point three two percent now section three four percent what does this darn baby what what's the pacifier that will be let in from throw a tantrum and smashing your stocks first let me just say this ain't no ordinary baby it's like a bear cub and it can't be separated from his mommy there's only one thing that could be the stock but it could be the stock markets mommy that's the larger more important bond market whatever long-term bond yields go down the cub cries because plumbing bond yields are viewed as a sign that the economy is slowing and for a baby that's pretty good logic historically interest rates do go down when we're headed into a recession it doesn't matter how many times we demonstrate that the US economy is doing just fine doesn't matter if the big retailers of the law went home votes were tallied seriously Kevin Johnson from Starbucks tell us that business is good this little cub keeps howling that a recession is inevitable but house a lot louder when you take away its pacifier just let's go butt out and do it this morning stocks opened strong because the bond market was calm whoever didn't take one for money to come pouring into US Treasuries from overseas because our rates are still much higher than anything else you can get in the developed world sure the third year now yields less than 2% but that's roughly two percentage points better than what's Germany is paying all that foreign money well let's say the buying has created an inverted yo curve where short-term rates are higher than long-term ones it's totally that is a very very bad omen but I think it's an anomaly this time at least close by the fact that our rates are so out of step with the rest of the world unfortunately babies do not understand anomalies but you don't understand the kind of lockstep linkage that says you sell stocks whenever the yield curve reverse that's what dominates the action now and I think it will turn out just like the last important linkage or soil you were supposed to sell stocks whenever the price of crude went down because it could be signal that there's something wrong with the economy well how that worked for you badly it turns out that there was no meaningful correlation well wasn't going down because it was less demand courtesy of a weaker economy it went down because there was too much supply like United States selling another two million battles in the market and leaving other milk coming in reality lower oil was great for the companies of companies become earnings of companies that consume crude which by the way is almost all them then when oil prices started recovering that was wasn't a bullish signal it was embarrassing it meant we might have some inflation which then gave the Fed cover to tighten and tighten and tighten some more which it did and now we find ourselves in this fix after this market stop playing with oil we got a new league as it was the dollar what's so brilliant every time it's all word up the averages went down the Dollar link which made more sense ladies base was somewhat leased more sense than the other I mean a strong currency really does hurt American companies who sell lots of stuff overseas oh it's very good for American companies that rely on imports but the algorithmic traders took over and decided the dollar was the key to the whole market so they bang stocks down whenever the dollar rally again though the dollar wasn't the key to anything the correlation bogus we got used to companies reporting the earnings from the constant currency basis what would they would have made without foreign exchange fluctuations and pretty much started ignoring it in fact copies with sales overseas that got translated back to dollars were some of the market's best performers if you sold stocks like McDonald's of Procter & Gamble goes the dollar you missed out on some phenomenal moves now the marks it like it's not fixated on the dollar a month it's not fixated oil anymore it's just fixated on the Uecker some kind of crystal ball crystal ball is predicting a recession but we already have plenty of stocks that are trading like we're headed into a serious flow down namely the industrials most are down huge from their highs including the more cyclical tech stocks they need a healthy economy to thrive so how did we pacify this wailing bear cub as far as the baby is concerned the only thing will make this recession thesis go away is a trade deal she's not impressed by the strong labor market employ minutes often lagging indicator she knows from last week's Fed meeting that the Fed seems pretty oblivious she doesn't care about the newfound strength in Texas or the southeast for this baby it's trade deal or bust and that's a real shame because I don't see the trade war with China ending anytime soon President Trump wants American manufacturers out of the People's Republic we dr.

02. Brian Golder he's the CEO of Hasbro this very morning and he told us he's aggressively moving his toy make me out of China since Trump started rolling out his tariffs but golden also made it clear that Hasbro has an asset light business model meaning they don't own the plants so they're free to quickly move production not many manufacturers are like that and I think the white house underestimates how hard it will be for these companies poor mistakes for now Trump appears to have the upper hand we import from them far more than they import from us so it stands to reason and we know the Chinese are struggling so he's got no incentive to deal but what happens if we get a recession then we need to talk about politics which I hate with the recession you're likely to have a Democrat in the White House come 2021 the only question is which Democrat whatever your own views the stock market prefers someone like Joe Biden who's not really gonna rock the boat but what about the less business friendly candidates like Bernie Sanders Elizabeth Warren if you want to understand their impact on the market ball I got a way to do it you know I like to get things I like metaphors of stocks I like Humana I like you man as a metaphor for this moment the health insurance company will be public enemy number one and the Sanders our warm white house they want single-payer no room for private insurance so you man is gonna get Klopp gonna be hit the hardest from the Yoker burst because if we get a recession it dramatically raises the likelihood of a Sanders administration for the moment that's all this market seems to care about so why even bother it on stocks your good question while I deal with the shrieking baby excellent question because like the dollar linkage like the oil winking I think the yield curve linkage is wrong the lower Ernst rates go the better it is for the consumer because people can borrow more cheaply I think this will be a huge boon especially in a housing lower rates are like oil as long as you're not forecasting recession they're great for the economy who doesn't want a 3% mortgage still the market can stay wrong longer than you can stay solvent if I'm right one way you know it that's the hardest question because we need to see an acceleration hiring an acceleration workforce participation and ideally some huge infrastructure spending from the governor or politically I think that's very unlikely by line until we get some tangible signs that the economy's picking up your gonna have to get used to the screams of this needy bear cub of the market but I have to urge you to stay the course because like oil like the dollar I do believe the linkage will be exposed as faulty and stocks will remain the best investments Andrew in North Carolina Andrew hey Jim a big north tackle a key booyah to you and yours I'm watching that immediately what's going on say thank you for advocating to every they keep their own straight during market ups and downs thank you thank you yes sir and I kept you just question I've heard you talk a lot and passed about Wendy's yeah and how it's good sharp the chart and dividend make it one of your favorite grow stocks I just wanted to see what you thought about Wendy's actually going up during this most recent time and what is greatest or witness has been a star because they are al executing so many different companies I think it's a terrific company I've been behind it now for I don't know let's see hey I would say 16 points and I'm staying behind it I think there's more to Wendy's let's go to Kyle in Kansas Kyle hey Jen Booya and a rock shot Junior okay my question is about a big bank stocks with increasingly inverted yield curve global economic slowdown and the possibility that profit margins for banks are going to decrease should I stay away from big bank stocks like banks in America okay here's the problem I think that the bank's situation is much better than people realize but it won't matter until they report and until they report I think they are just going to go down because lo anybody looks at is they look at the Yoker been decided that's all that matters for Bank of America and all the rest of them so even though I think Bank of America is incredibly cheap I got to tell you I do not want you in so I'm gonna say don't buy don't know is that payphones I like the company so much all right this market will continue to be needy for quite some time but try to stay strong I think stocks remain the best investments oh man money today has Splunk plus its Punk this Hawks big data simply but isn't buying opportunity I'm getting to the bottom of this one with the CEO then 17 the last 21 years stocks have rally get this route prior to Labor Day 70 that's what do you won why do the charge forecasting this time I'll break it down when we tackle the technicals and it's the world's largest packaged foods company that can't fall for a real read on the consumer and is real sustainable do not miss my sit-down with Nestle