저자: 빌애크먼 · 외국인
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결론: 애크먼은 사업의 질과 현금흐름 예측 가능성을 투자의 최우선 기준으로 보며, 워커비어드 사례처럼 가격이 가치보다 크게 낮을 때 매수한다는 원칙을 강조한다. 투자 철학: 어떤 금융자산의 가치는 수명 동안 뽑아낼 수 있는 현금의 현재가치이므로, 사업이 얼마나 많은 현금을 얼마나 예측 가능하게 창출하는지가 가장 중요하다. 종목 선별 기준: 철도, 주류, 부동산(쇼핑몰) 등 단순하고 예측 가능하며 잉여현금흐름을 만드는 지배적 사업을 선호하고, 버핏식 해자가 있는 기업을 찾는다. 밸류에이션 원칙: 현재 주가와 내재가치 사이 격차가 크면(예: 50센트에 1달러 20센트 가치) 매력적으로 보고, 왜 깊은 할인에 거래되는지 먼저 분석한다. 행동주의 관점: 할인 원인을 해결할 수 있는 레버를 자신들이 영향력 있게 바꿀 수 있는지 판단하며, 괴리가 좁혀지고 가치가 성장할 여지가 있을 때 투자한다. 리서치 기간: 리서치 기간은 사례마다 다르며, 가장 성공적인 투자 중 하나는 4시간의 작업으로 결정되었다. 사례-워초비아(2008 금융위기): 씨티그룹의 워초비아 은행 자회사 인수 발표 직후, 홀딩컴퍼니에 현금·세금환급권·증권사 등 자산이 있다고 보고 최소 주당 11~14달러 가치로 평가했다. 당시 주가는 1.84달러였고 이후 4일간 거래량의 42%를 매수했다. 이후 웰스파고가 주당 7달러 상당 주식으로 인수하며 결과적으로 큰 수익이 났다. 특정 종목 매수/매도 권유나 향후 1~3개월 가격 방향에 대한 발언은 없음. 리스크 언급은 제한적이며 비상장 자산·부채 구조 분석의 중요성을 강조함. 출연자 전망: 장기적으로 사업 품질과 현금흐름 중심 투자의 우위를 강조하는 견해.
다듬은 글
we need to know what how much cash is going to generate over its life so the business quality to us is the single most important uh criterion for determining what's interesting strategy and go through uh how it works and when you come you know maybe you'll override that portfolio manager or not but what's the checklist you kind of go through so we look for very high quality businesses uh what we describe as simple predictable free cash flow generative dominant businesses a business that warren buffett would describe as having a mode around it right if you if you believe that the value of anything financial is the present value the cash you can take out of it over its life well you need to know what how much cash is going to generate over its life so the business quality to us is the single most important uh criterion for determining what's interesting because if we can't predict the cash flows we don't know what's worth we don't know what's worth we can't invest so we figure out what it's worth figure out how good the business is how predictable will this cash flows be from a railroad or a spirits company or a real estate company shopping mall business uh and then we say uh okay well where's it trading um and if there's a wide gap between price and value uh you can buy it for 50 cents it's worth a dollar 20.
well then we're going to take a hard look and try to understand why it trades at a deep discount and uh once we understand the reasons we decide well these things that we can solve you know can we in light of the situation uh the circumstances can we be influential in changing these these levers that can cause this valuation discrepancy to narrow and is this a business that while we're causing the valuation discrepancy to narrow we can also perhaps contribute to the valuation growing and those things are true we found something that looks quite interesting for us and um usually this investment philosophy does it take a week a month three months to do the research a year i mean you have ten names what how long it depends i mean one of the best investments we ever made uh took us four hours to do the work uh it was during the financial crisis which was that uh wachovia corporation so um i was on my blackberry uh eating breakfast uh the brooklyn diner uh in front of my building and the story went across the uh i was just you know wall street journal headline reuters headlines excuse me went across saying um that citigroup to acquire the wachovia banking subsidiaries for two dollars in citigroup stock stock was halted this was kind of an interesting transaction because they were buying the subsidiaries for citigroup stock i figured it's interesting what happens to the holding company so i went back to the you know kind of went upstairs to the office and you know cracked open the 10k and another member of the team mick maguire he and i worked on it and what was interesting is the thousand page 10k of wachovia corporation i think 900 pages were on the banking subsidiary there was fewer than 100 pages on the holding company and by buying the banking subsidiary city was leaving a holding company which had cash um you know in wachovia securities uh a.g edwards they had paid six seven billion four to six months before evergreen asset management and they were taking a 27 billion dollar loss on the sale of the subsidiary and uh it also had a liability called non-cumulative perpetual preferred stock which if you ever want to have a liability in your life this is the single greatest liability to have it's a it's a form of equity where you never have to pay a dividend and when you don't pay them they don't accumulate and the worst case is they get a couple directors on the board and you say hi to them each meeting and uh you have this very you know i said look this could be the our our berkshire hathaway and uh the end of the day we figured the ass you know in four hours we determined the holding company was worth at least 11 to 14 cash a tax refund that you could you could carry back the 27 billion dollar uh loss recover cash taxes have been paid so you have this cash vehicle you know wachovia securities which is a you know good wealth management business you'd own a.g edwards another interesting assets these are businesses you know well and uh the stock opened after it was halted at a dollar eighty-four so we said look it's worth you know 11 to 14 1.84 we bought 42 percent of the volume for the next four days and then it was acquired by then wells came in and put in a topping bid of seven dollars in wells fargo stock which wasn't actually a topping bid but the wells fargo deal did not require government assistance
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