Ed Yardeni: Friday's market stumbles are a healthy development

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Fed의 7월 금리 인상 가능성이 현재 시장의 핵심 변수이며, 최근 조정은 건강한 과정이라고 봄. 시장이 밸류에이션 주도로 과열되면 문제지만 이번은 1999-2000년과 다르다는 입장. 연말 S&P 500 목표치는 8,250 수준이며 2030년경 10,000을 제시. AI는 데이터를 새로운 생산요소로 보는 디지털 혁명의 연장선이며 데이터센터 투자 수요는 실재한다고 주장.

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01. Here on set to try to answer that question is your Denny research president Ed Yard Denney. Can I set this up a little bit? Sure, absolutely. I I know you are just want to hear from you, but you guys had a note back in the fall that really captured my attention and it was about the mag seven turning on each other.

02. Right. And I can't help but think as this plays out that that is still kind of the case, but I I'm curious for for your thoughts. I think that's part of it. There's a lot of moving parts here in this story, obviously. I I think there's a lot of trepidation about where AI is going and how much we're spending on it, but look, I think the issue here is we're back to the old economy issue about what the Fed's going to do.

03. That's that's really what's hitting the the the market and I I I get people some warning. Actually, a couple days ago I wrote June swoon. I thought that with the Fed likely to raise rates in July, which is still a contrary view, apparently, that that would lead to some sort of pullback in the market and I think it's a I think it's a healthy development.

04. I would not want to have seen this market just keep going straight up. Because you've said your your your in price target, if I'm not mistaken, is still where it at 8,000. 8,000 250. 8,250, but you said it for the next little while, things are looking too they were looking too frothy for you. They were too frothy.

05. I mean, look, everybody thought that this market go up was FOMO, but FOMO would have been really more of evaluation multiple going up. I call it FEMO, a fabulous earnings momentum and so I don't really have a problem with an earnings blood melt up, but it was getting a little bit rich and if it just kept going up on valuation, I think we would have a real problem.

06. This is not, in my opinion, 1999-2000 all over again. And with all due respect to our amazing graphics there with the bear and the sounds, the Dow is still higher this week. The Dow is up 1/4 of 1% this week. I know pros don't look at the Dow. Markets are down a little bit and the win streak is over, but I want to put that all in context, Ed, because we are now in one of and have seen one of the greatest stock market rallies {slash} comebacks

07. Right. in your illustrious career time, have we not? Yeah, absolutely. Um but uh it kind of was this year similar to last year. We had a a a a panic attack in the market over tariffs. This time around we had a another panic attack over the war in the Middle East. The war is not over, but uh uh in both cases those turn out to be great buying opportunities.

08. And for all I know, this is going to turn out to be another great buying opportunity. I I don't know that it's going to last little thing? Cuz I'm going to say something that 49% of our audience is probably going to hate me even more for, which is like, I hope the market sells off a little bit. Because when the market goes up every day, Kelly, I don't know about you, maybe you can answer this, I get nervous.

09. You want to see pullbacks. Pullbacks are healthy. Selling is healthy. A market that doesn't have a pullback or a sell-off to me is an irrational and often an unhealthy market. Your take. Well, I think the valuation multiple is high, but it's not high if you agree with me that the economy is resilient as it has proven to be and that it'll continue to grow over the rest of the decade.

10. You know, I I've been talking about the roaring 20 2020s and a lot of people think that that means we're 6 years into it. We're actually, if you use your fingers to count it, we're actually 7 years into it. So we got 3 more years after this one. And things are going really well. And I just I I would I'm talking about 10,000 on the S&P 500 by the end of the decade.

11. I didn't really want to get there by by the end of the year or the end of the month. What do you mean? people are already talking about 9,000 by the end of this year. And I'm going to leave it at 8,000 and change. So what do you make of this term, this earnings bubble term that's going around, which the problem with it is it again suggests it's either due to special factors or unsustainable.

12. Whereas what we're seeing now, does it give you in this kind of maybe more relevant with things like the memory stocks, like the chip stocks? Is this going to be an earnings bubble that we look back on or are we building the foundation for Well, I I think AI is the real deal. I think what we're seeing here is just a continuation of the digital revolution where we're able to process more and more data more quickly, more cheaply and AI is a tremendous development along that road.

13. It started with IBM mainframes back in the 1960s and now I kind of think of data as another factor of production. You know, when when we're taught economics we're taught land, labor and capital and those are kind of short in in in supply whereas data we're always going to have more and more and the more we can process, the faster we can do it, the more cheaply we can do it.

14. Guess what? This is going to be It's kind of like I call it the my Buzz Lightyear theory, to infinity and beyond. There is no shortage of data. There never will be shortage of data and the reason these companies and they're well-managed companies are spending so much on data centers is because they wish they already had them today because the demand is definitely there.