저자: CharlieMunger · 외국인
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찰리 멍거 발언 중심으로 향후 경기침체와 주식시장 하락 위험을 경고하는 영상이며, 명시적 자산별 가격 방향 예측은 거의 없음. [연준 긴축 기조] 연준이 기준금리를 0.75%p 인상했고 인플레이션을 2%로 되돌리기 위해 당분간 긴축을 유지해야 한다는 입장이라고 소개. [멍거의 인플레이션·경기침체 전망] 볼커 시절처럼 강하게 긴축하기 어려운 정치 환경이라 새로운 문제는 1970년대와 다른 형태이며, 현재 문제는 볼커 때보다 더 나쁠 수 있다고 주장. [주식시장 전망 근거] 성장률 둔화, 이익 성장 약세, 금리 상승 가능성, 밸류에이션 부담 등을 들어 향후 S&P500 수익률이 평균 이하일 것이라는 해석 제시. [버핏지표] 미국 시가총액/GDP 비율이 약 150%로 여전히 고평가이며, 2001년 기고 기준 100%가 적정, 200% 부근은 위험하다고 언급. [멍거의 투자 원칙] 하락장에서도 장기 투자 유지 필요, 주가 50% 하락도 감내해야 한다는 주장과 감정 통제 강조. [분산투자 및 종목 선택] 소수 종목 집중이 낫다는 견해를 제시하며 버크셔, 코스트코 등을 예로 듦. 고품질 기업(높은 ROE·ROIC, 낮은 레버리지) 선호. [가치투자] 그레이엄식 가치투자는 사라지지 않으며 버블 때마다 가치투자가 중요하다고 강조. [조건/리스크] 인플레이션과 금리 인상 지속 시 시장 충격 가능성, 투기적 시장 구조에 대한 비판. [출연자 전망] 멍거는 시장이 심각한 어려움에 처할 수 있다고 경고했고, 인플레이션을 자신의 투자전략에서는 거의 고려하지 않는다고 함.
다듬은 글
the fomc raised its policy interest rate by three quarters of a percentage point and we anticipate that ongoing increases will be appropriate we are moving our policy stance purposefully to a level that will be sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to two percent restoring price stability will likely require maintaining a restrictive policy stance for some time the historical record cautions strongly against prematurely loosening policy it's in on this same subject he says what are your current thoughts on the inflationary environment and please compare and contrast it to the 1970s when volcker after the 70s took the prime rate to 20 percent and the government was paying 15 on its government bonds that was a horrible recession lasted a long time caught with a lot of agony and I certainly hope we're not going there again conditions that allowed volcker to do that without an interference from about politicians were very unusual 2020 hindsight it was a good thing that he did it I would not predict that our modern politicians will be as willing to permit a new Volker to get that tough with the economy and bring on that kind of a recession so I think the new troubles are likely to be different from the old troubles you may wish you had you had a vulgar style recession instead of what you're going to get the troubles that come to us could be worse than what Volker was dealing with Charlie Munger a billionaire investor and Warren Buffett's partner at Berkshire Hathaway warned of serious difficulty for the markets that the daily journal's annual meeting earlier this year with the possibility of another recession looming over us the prediction is perhaps more timely now so let's take a look at how to make money during this difficult period Charlie Munger predicts trouble in the stock market the conclusion from Charlie munger's remarks in light of current macroeconomic and market conditions is that future spy returns are likely to be below average over the next few years the reasons are fairly simple the outlook for economic growth is weak if not negative for the foreseeable future without strong economic growth earnings growth will also be weak interest rates are likely to rise further based on persistently High inflation and recent comments from the Federal Reserve higher interest rates in the near term will make the market appear overvalued under the current interest rate model higher interest rates will also impact asset valuations and drive them lower valuation multiples are still elevated compared to historical averages Warren Buffett's favorite Market indicator is almost 150 percent signaling that weakened U.S equities are still overvalued and at risk of further declines Buffett's indicator is based on the total market capitalization of all actively traded U.S stocks and divides it by the most recent quarterly estimate of gross domestic product GDP Buffett suggested in a 2001 article for Fortune magazine that stocks would be fairly valued if the indicator were at one hundred percent suggesting that they are still significantly overvalued today buying stocks would probably work very well at 70 percent or 80 percent but around the 200 percent Market would be playing with fire he wrote at the time as a result when you combine weak growth with a lack of multiple expansion and in fact a likely reduction in multiples low dividend yields and a likely rise in interest rates there are no real catalysts to drive stock market returns functional economic theory argues that excessive monetary and fiscal stimulus over the last two years has triggered the highest inflation in 40 years do you broadly agree with this thesis and more importantly do you think there will be a high economic price to pay as the FED attempts to bring inflation back under control we've done something pretty extreme and we don't know how bad the troubles will be whether we're going to be like Japan or something a lot worse what makes life interesting is we don't know it's going to work out I think we do know we're flirting with serious trouble think of how seductive it is you have a bunch of interest-bearing debts and you pay them off with checking accounts which you're no longer paying interest think of how seductive that is for a bunch of legislators you get rid of the interest payments and the money supply goes up it seems like heaven when things get that seductive they're likely to be overused Charlie munger's thoughts on inflation inflation plays essentially no role in munger's investment strategy the billionaire investor largely ignores current macroeconomic trends when making investment decisions how to invest during a recession while these are certainly difficult if not extremely challenging times for investors trying to navigate the markets it still makes sense to be invested however we should keep in mind the following principles to guide us to be more cautious during this period by the declines in the share price of Berkshire Hathaway the difficulties this is the third time that Warren and I have seen our Holdings in Berkshire go down top tick to bottom tick by 50 I think it's the nature of long-term shareholding with the normal vicissitudes and in worldly outcomes and in markets that the long-term holder has is quoted value of a stock go down by say 50 in fact you can argue that if you're not willing to react with Equanimity to a market price decline of 50 two or three times a century you're not fit to be a common shareholder and you deserve the mediocre result you're going to get think rationally when investing you will sometimes experience setbacks confusion frustration uncertainty anxiety and disappointment it's inevitable how you react to events and to your emotions will be a key factor in your success or lack thereof at the heart of a rational approach to investing is a framework built on three factors balancing exposure to risk factors effective diversification and taking advantage of relative mispricing in financial markets a stock market which some people use like a gambling parlor and the transactions of the people who love the gambling parlor aspect of the business and those who want to make long-term Investments to take care of their old age and so forth I mean he modeled that in one market and it goes out of control because the stock market becomes an ideal gambling parlor activity if I were the dictator of the world I would have some kind of attacks on short-term gains that made the stock market very much less liquid and drove out this this marriage of gambling parlor and legitimate Capital development of the country it's not a good marriage and I think we need a divorce what we're getting is wretched access and danger for the country and everybody loves it because it's like a bunch of people get drunk at a party they're having so much fun getting drunk that they don't think about the consequences this is serious stuff but a lot of people like up drunken brawl so far those are the people that are winning and a lot of people are making money out of our brawl invest with a long-term time Horizon because long-term investing gives your money the best chance of increasing in value but this means keeping calm during periods of significant stock market volatility and remembering that as history shows markets usually recover play out and what's the best advice you have for individual investors to optimally deal with the negative impact of inflation other than owning quality equities it may be that you have to choose the least bad of a bunch of options that frequently happens in human decision making the mongers have Berkshire stock Costco stock Chinese stocks a little bit of Daily Journal stock and a bunch of apartment houses do I think that's perfect no do I think it's okay yes the great lesson from the mongers is you don't need all this damn diversification you're lucky if you've got four good assets if you're trying to do better than average you're lucky if you have four things to buy to ask for 20 is really asking for egg in your beer it's it's very few people can have enough brains to get 20 good Investments invest in Quality Companies Quality Companies are those that deliver High profitability over the long term and whether that profitability is measured as return on Equity return on assets return on invested capital or whatever profitability you want to use other definitions of quality that we can intersect with equality in the sense of low leverage or safety and quality in the sense of high management investment relative to earnings indicating that management is investing in future growth well Ben Graham valuation methods dead they'll never die you can't the idea of getting more value than you pay for that's what an investment is if you want to be successful you have to get more value than you pay for and so it's never going to be obsolete think of the past crazy booms and how they worked out the bubble in the late 20s so on and so on we've had this since the dawn of capitalism we've had crazy bubbles value investing will always be relevant according to Munger value investing will never die this investment strategy is based on selecting stocks that appear to be trading at a lower price than their intrinsic or Book value value investors actively seek out stocks that they believe are undervalued by the stock market they believe that the market overreacts to good and bad news resulting in stock price movements that do not match the company's long-term fundamentals overreaction offers an opportunity to profit by buying shares at discounted prices
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