Warren Buffett: HOLD cash or INVEST

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결론: 버핏은 현금 160억 달러를 보유하지만 적극적 포지션 전략이 아니라 매력적 투자처가 없어 남기는 기본값이며, 향후 큰 기회는 기대하기 어렵다고 말한다. 현금 보유 이유: 가격이 만족스럽지 않아 현금을 내놓을 이유가 없다는 것이지 금리 상승이나 주가 하락을 예상해서가 아니라고 설명한다. 현금 운용 및 기회 관련: 버크셔는 상당한 잉여현금흐름과 단기 채권 포트폴리오를 보유하며, 적당한 조건이면 좋은 사업이나 주식에 투자할 의사가 있다고 한다. 작년에는 정크본드 일부를 매수했지만 올해는 가격 변화로 매력이 사라졌다. 향후 기회 전망: 1973년이나 1982년 같은 대규모 기회가 다시 올 가능성은 낮으며, 버핏과 멍거 모두 그런 시기를 다시 보지 못할 가능성이 크다고 본다. 다만 시장은 예측 불가하므로 기회가 올 수도 있다고 덧붙인다. 금리 및 시장 우려: 일본 10년물 국채 금리가 0.625%까지 떨어진 것처럼 이상한 일이 발생할 수 있으며, 미국에서도 평균적인 분산투자자가 부진한 성과를 낼 수 있는 긴 시기가 올 수 있다고 경고한다. 파생상품 관련: 파생상품에 대한 경고가 현실화되면 혼란 속에서 버크셔에 큰 기회가 생길 수 있다고 본다. 정크본드 시장: 작년에는 정크본드 공급이 자금 유입보다 빨라 혼란스러웠지만, 올해는 주당 약 10억 달러씩 자금이 유입되며 가격 상황이 바뀌었다. 세계는 크게 변하지 않았고 시장의 혼란이 사라진 것이라고 설명한다. 출연자 전망 요약: 버핏은 지수 전망이나 특정 종목 방향을 언급하지 않았고, 장기적으로 기회 부족과 시장 불확실성을 강조했다.

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01. we have 16 billion of cash because we don't see anything that makes us want to part with that cash where we feel we're getting enough for our money berkshire has meaningful free cash flow a short duration bond portfolio and your buyer of low mobile high quality private businesses and a few stocks assuming that the stimulative economic policies to deal with a recession eventually cause interest rates to go up and maybe equity values to come down berkshire seems very well positioned to benefit would you comment in terms of how we're positioned you know we have 16 billion in cash not because we want 16 billion of cash or we're because we expect interest rates to go up or because we expect equities to go down we have 16 billion in cash because we don't see anything that makes us want to part with that cash where we feel we're getting enough for our money but we would spend it we've spent a monday morning on the right sort of uh a business or even if if we could find equities that we liked or if we could find like last year we found some junk bonds we like we're not finding them this year at all because prices have changed dramatically so we're we're not really ever positioning ourselves we're simply trying to do the smartest thing we can every day when we come to the office and if there's nothing smart to do cash is the default uh option uh charlie in terms of future opportunities the issue is is it all likely that there'll be an opportunity like 1973 for or 1982 even when equities generally are just mouth-watering i think there's a very excellent chance that neither warren or i will live to see either of those occasions again uh if so uh berkshire's not going to have a lot of no-brainer opportunities we're going to have to grind ahead the way we've been doing it recently which is not all bad it's not impossible that we'll get some mouth-watering opportunities i mean you just don't know in markets it's unbelievable what markets do over time and since you brought up interest rates uh you know in japan the 10-year bond is selling to yield five-eighths of one percent five-eighths of one percent i don't think there's anybody in our annual meeting of 20 years ago certainly including charlie and myself who would have dreamt of the 10-year bond uh of a country you know running a significant deficit would be selling at five-eighths of one percent i mean would you say so charlie whatever and it's but strange things happen strange things happen but if that could happen in japan something much less horrible for the investing class could happen in the united states it's not unthinkable i mean we could be in for a considerable period when the average intelligent diversified investor in common stocks using fancy paid advisors just doesn't do very well but you can argue that if what we warned against and hope doesn't happen with derivatives should happen it might create enormous opportunities for us in some arena i mean you know that we wouldn't be it might very well turn out to be good for us if if you get chaotic markets you had you had a somewhat disorganized market in junk bonds last year because there were a lot of them created much faster than the funds available to absorb them uh were coming in now this year you have just the opposite situation money pouring into the junk bond funds billion dollars a week roughly and that's changed the whole price situation the world hasn't changed that much it's just that that uh the chaos has left the market uh for those instruments