저자: JimCramer · 외국인
요약 보기
장기채(30년물 국채) 금리가 주식 가격을 좌우한다고 강조. 최근 장기채 5.3% 급등과 유가 상승으로 주택시장·항공주에 부담, 장기채가 주식과 경쟁하는 자산으로 작동. 경기 둔화 시 고용 약화 우려. 항공사(델타 등) 차입 비용 부담 언급. 개별 종목으로 Micron 등 언급은 있으나 1~3개월 방향 예측은 명시적으로 없음.
다듬은 글
My mission is simple – to make you money. I am here to create a level ka. How are you doing, friends? I'm just trying to make you some money. My job is not just to entertain you, but to educate you. So call me at 1-800-743-CNBC or tweet me at @Jim Cramer. Many years ago, at a training meeting at Goldman Sachs, we were quizzed on our knowledge of the markets.
The instructor, Dave, told us about the nails. Dave pointed at me and said, "Jim, what is the main factor that determines the price of Delta Airlines stock?" Wheelhouse, right in my cabin. Like a big thick line, a curve hanging down, so that I could imagine a ball rising to the upper deck as I spoke.
Dave, I told him, Delta, which trades at $34 with a P/E of 7, is hostage to the price of oil and unbalanced variable costs, the prism, or passenger revenue per seat mile, and the cost of cabin service per available seat mile. Delta has both of these numbers above industry standards, but the P/E is low, so I can see it growing over time.
Well, I was smiling the whole time I was putting out all this information. I mean, who knows more than me? Full of youthful confidence. No, Dave said, it's a hostage to long-term bonds, 30-year Treasury bonds. Now leave this room, go outside until the end of the meeting. Maybe this will help you learn something, including some modesty.
So, with a face as red as a beet, my ponytail pulled up , I left the meeting of 24 young people, my peers, and stood in the hall, waiting for it to end. I never forgot that searing shame. I hated Dave for a very long time , but I learned a valuable lesson: long-term bonds, 30-year Treasuries, are responsible for everything.
So today, when we had much more downward pressure on interest rates, especially on long-term bonds, you saw the damage that the bond market can do: the Dow Jones fell 217 points, the S&P lost 0.58%, and the Nasdaq lost 0.65%. Long bonds, of course, responded to rising oil prices. Why was Dave so confident that long bonds controlled Delta's stock price, rather than the fundamentals of the business itself?
Because that's how the stock market works. Look what happened today. Long bonds went through a continuous 5.3% surge that I don't remember, just tracking the rise in oil. 30- year bonds are relentless, and they drag everything down like a landslide. The first and most obvious is mortgage rates. Today they exceeded 7%.
Oh man, new existing home sales have been terrible. Rates in this country have been kept so low that, frankly, you'd almost have to double your mortgage rate if you were buying a new home. So why sell your old home? This makes many homes unaffordable. New home buyers may not be able to afford this 7% rate.
This is destroying the American dream. Housing makes up 10% of the economy, but it punches well above its weight. Think about how much stuff goes into a house. Think about materials, salaries, brokers, lawyers, plumbers, electricians, landscaping, just a shooting competition. All retailers from RH to Best Buy, Home Depot and Lowe's, Stanley, Stanley Black& Decker.
And there is also an investor. Promotions are great. They can bring you a fortune, especially for young people who can afford to take risks. But you know what's better than stocks for anyone 50 years old or older? These 30-year Treasury bonds, king, that's what. Sure, inflation may rise and you may find yourself in a tight spot, but historically, getting a 5.3% risk-free return isn't that bad.
Believe me, as you get older, you can still own some Apple stock. You might also like a little Chevron or Procter. But this 30-year bond is the perfect piece of paper to sleep on at night. Not that I know from personal experience, but many people tell me that sleeping at night is good. The 30-year bond yield may be crushing housing, but it's an even stronger competitor when it comes to stocks, low-yielding stocks in a sloppy environment like this.
Then there is the problem of oversupply . The government must pay off all of this debt. We are lucky that Uncle Sam can issue bonds to pay for it, and people still buy them because they are backed by the full faith and credit of the U.S. government. But the emission level is insane. You know, there are about $4.5 trillion in long-term bonds right now.
Now our finance minister wants to try to keep this interest rate low to reverse all the effects. He says he has inside information or something. He buys them to drive up the price and lower the yield. The problem is that the Treasury is buying back $6 billion in bonds when there are about $4.5 trillion worth of long bonds outstanding, or about T.
Well , that's too much, and it has too little firepower. This whole thing is a bit silly, isn't it? Although it's less absurd than giving every adult $5,000 so that Republicans can maintain control of Congress after the midterm elections. That would be another trillion dollars. Mr. Minister of Finance, save your powder.
So, knowing all of this, let's go back to Goldman and Dave from Delta. First, we know that stocks are assets, just like bonds. You know that a risk-free bond has a huge yield , and people are more likely to choose it than a share of airline common stock, especially when airlines are known for being risky investments or at least volatile, you price those stocks off the 30-year Treasury, and right now the Treasury is winning.
If rates on these long bonds are high, it will slow the economy, and it won't help that oil is so high, which the president is very worried about, otherwise he would n't be offering five grand for a party victory, whatever. If the economy slows down, people will be laid off and expansion plans will be canceled.
Right now, what's keeping the economy humming and stocks relatively volatile, despite higher oil prices, is employment, which remains quite high. If this changes, then, as we know, people will not travel as much. Airlines will lower their valuations, stocks will fall. This is exactly what these actions expect.
In addition to the incredibly high price of oil , which sharply reduces profits. Airlines have to constantly borrow money to buy planes, which is a huge expense for them . We see that Treasury bonds are trading at 5.3%. We must always remember that very few companies have a high enough credit rating to borrow money at a rate close to the same as the federal government.
Airlines are stronger than they used to be, but they are notoriously inconsistent. They have to pay significantly more than 5.3% to borrow the money needed to buy the planes. This means that they cannot expand if they behave normally for 30 years . They can't grow, and people don't like stocks that don't grow, hence the seven-fold Delta value back then.
We now know that there are many other factors that affect the management of an airline. We know that some airlines are better than others. Delta Delta has always been one of the best. But the point is , that's not the most important thing, according to Disco Dave, as I called him, because I once saw him buying a boombox at the 47th Street Photo.
I know this because I bought a boombox myself. This was a year after my Delta fiasco, too close to being punished. However, I met Dave by chance about ten years later, and at that moment I knew what I would do if someone gave me the all-knowing , all-knowing answer about the prize in the abyss. I would kick him out of the meeting and tell him to wait in the hall.
So, I thanked him, told him about it, and added that I would hang a giant whiteboard in the hallway and make that guy write long bonds over and over and over until the meeting was over. Let's go to Elizabeth in Florida . Elizabeth. Hey, Jim. I hope you are well. Oh, Elizabeth, that's great. How are you?
Perfectly. Not bad. I have a quick question for you. Of course. Um, I saw where you were on September 2nd, and given the recent sell-off in vertically integrated turbine component casting companies, do you see a future earnings shift that justifies a stock repricing, or is the market overreacting because demand remains constrained by supply?
Listen, I'll tell you what the problem is. And I like to call "How I Met Your Mother," we joke about it , but it's a fastener company , and frankly, it's a very commodity-oriented business for the most part , and it sells for 44 times its earnings . And we don't want to pay that much for raw materials, even though business is strong.
I think people are saying, wait a second, this is too much, and I'll wait for the price to drop lower. And if you look at the graph, it really does seem like it's falling. Let's move on to Mike Mike Mike from Colorado. Mike. Dr. Kramer. Giant viewer here from Colorado. I've been listening for a long time, this is my first time calling.
I like what you do. I love how you teach us about the inner workings of the markets. That's all. It's not easy. I mean, I have to liven up the class every night , you know what I mean? But thank you for calling. My wife says I need professional help, so I called you. I will also buy the book immediately after this call.
Let's get to work. I am a Micron millionaire. I took 1.6 million at the beginning of the year in my 401k and turned it into 7.4, mostly from Micron stock. I attribute my success to your teachings, especially regarding shopping and homework. I wrote a four-page thesis on the stock, showing the forward P/E ratio, the forward PEG ratio, the forward PEG Y ratio, including the yield , which takes into account possible dividend increases and the percentage of possible 30 billion buybacks after the stock expires on December 9th.
My thesis says that the stock price could be 1400 plus or minus 150 due to uncertainty. My question, Professor Kramer, in the words of my cousin Vinny, is, does my thesis stand up to criticism? I want to thank you for everything you do. Take it, Dr. Kramer. Did he call me professor? I mean , I just overheard a conversation with the dean.
I mean, that's a great analysis. He is absolutely accurate in every digit. Everything you said is true, which is why my travel trust owns it and why we are aggressively buying it. And by the way, can I just say that if you listen to what Mike said, he put some money aside. He was lucky to have money, which I know not every American has, but he had money.
He invested them in a separate stock. Now, if he had invested them in an index fund, he would have made some money. But he became very rich. And part of my job is not just to make you rich, but I hope we make you really rich. This is not a sin. This is not a sin. I was very poor. Let me tell you, it's better to be rich.
What can I say? This is true. Let's go to Phil's in North Carolina. Fillet. Jim, how are you today, sir? I had that. Good day, Phil. Yesterday was a bit difficult, to be honest, but we won't go into that. But today is a little better. How are you doing? That's good. I feel great today myself, Jim. But anyway, I just want to start by telling you how much I appreciate you.
And you remind me so much of Peter Lynch that I'm just...you're this generation's Peter Lynch . Well, I created a sample of his two books where I went to write to his editor for my first book because I knew how great he was, how wonderful he was. The Magellan Foundation made me and my father who we have become.
He's a great person and I really appreciate analog technology. This means a lot to me. Yes, it was one of the first funds I knew of that closed. Absolutely. Me too. He was so active there. Is this true? Yes, you got it. And he gave a lot of space funding. He is just a wonderful person. A wonderful person.
He made many people really rich. So how can I help you? Oh, he did. He did. And, uh, like I said, you're from this generation. Calm down, you are very calm. In any case. Anyway, uh, I just want to let you know, okay ? My granddaughter and I, her name is Antonia, we watched your interview a while ago with the CEO of Arista Networks, okay?
Jay Sri She is the best. Now that Antonia... She's the best. Yes. Antonia is a young girl who just graduated from college, works in Manhattan, and is very much in love with her portfolio. Because of this interview we heard, we both bought a lot of Arista Networks stock. Antonia wants to know... Okay, how confident are you that Arista Network won't go the same way as Ciena Corporation ?
Okay, so let me tell you that Arista stock has been up significantly this year. Uh, I'm sure about J. Crew. I think she's great, and I think every time stocks go down, if you've seen it since the beginning of her tenure, you should buy them, and I'm not backing down from that. I feel the same way now as I did, oh God, how many years ago, when we first met her.
She is money, and the company is fantastic , and thank you for the kind words. Okay, long bonds solve everything. Remember this, you will never be as ashamed as I am. Mad Money tonight . Lululemon just reported another dismal quarterly report on shyness. So is there any hope left for this retailer? I'm going to take a closer look .
Then you called and stopped me at the Serta Tempur-Pedic. Now I'm giving my opinion again on when stocks are skyrocketing, and how is Sterling Infrastructure doing when data center prices are fluctuating? I'm going to talk to ? Visit madmoney.cnbc.com.
Comments 0