저자: 짐크레이머 · 외국인
요약 보기
한 줄 결론: 경기침체 중 방어주 중심 접근을 권하며, 레이놀즈 컨슈머 프로덕츠(REYN)는 저평가로 보아 절반 매수 후 실적 발표 뒤 30달러 이하에서 추가 매수를 제안한다. 시장 배경: 한 달간 증시는 급등했지만 실물경기는 악화됐고 6주간 실업수당 청구 3천만 건이 나왔다. 항바이러스제, 점진적 경제 재개, 연준·재무부 지원은 긍정 요인이지만 경기침체 자체를 바꾸지는 못한다고 평가한다. 방어주 전략: 침체기에는 공격적 투자를 피하고 필수소비재 같은 방어주를 택해야 한다. 클로락스(CLX)와 콜게이트-팜올리브(CL)를 매수 기회로 언급했고, 두 종목은 다음날 실적을 발표할 예정이다. P&G와 킴벌리클라크도 이미 좋은 실적을 보였다고 언급했다. 레이놀즈 기업 분석: 1월 상장한 회사로 호일, 헤프티 봉투, 일회용 컵 등을 만든다. 상장 후 주가는 24달러에서 32달러 이상으로 회복했다. 연매출은 약 30억 달러로 정체 상태이며 작년에는 3% 이상 감소했다. 수익성·재무: 순이익은 2015년 6,800만 달러에서 2017년 3억200만 달러로 늘었고 2018년 1억7,600만 달러로 감소한 뒤 작년 2억2,500만 달러로 회복했다. 원가 절감과 마진 개선이 주요 요인이다. 총부채는 42억 달러이며 IPO 자금으로 일부를 상환했고 당장 만기 도래 부채는 없다. 시장 지위: 프리저 페이퍼 94%, 알루미늄 호일 64%, 왁스 페이퍼 59%, 쓰레기봉투 20%(전년 대비 2%p 상승) 등 주요 카테고리에서 높은 점유율을 가진다. 아마존의 독점 PB 공급사이기도 하며 매출의 약 98%가 미국 내에서 발생한다. 수요 데이터: 닐슨 기준 최근 4주간 쓰레기봉투 판매 15%, 식품 포장 37%, 일회용 식기 8%, 알루미늄 호일 44% 증가했다. 다만 이 호황은 일시적일 것으로 본다. 리스크: 장기적으로 매출 성장 과제가 크고 혁신도 부족하다. 지배구조상 공개 주주가 경영을 통제하기 어렵고, 최대주주는 뉴질랜드 억만장자 그레이엄 하트이며 LBO 방식의 사모펀드 이력이 있다. 주가는 내년 예상 이익의 18배로 클로락스(27배), 콜게이트(23배), P&G(23배)보다 싸고 배당수익률은 1.9%다. 결론 및 조건: 현재가에서 절반 매수하고, 실적 발표 후 30달러 아래로 내려가면 추가 매수하라는 권고다. 바로 아래 청취자 통화에서도 레이놀즈를 소량 매수 후 하락 시 추가 매수하라고 답했다. 바클레이즈가 2020~2021년 업계 최고 수준의 이익 성장을 예상했다고 인용했다. 기타 언급: 아마코(Amcor)를 식품·음료 포장의 안정 기업으로 긍정 평가했다. US 푸즈는 외식 부문 비중 때문에 부정적으로 보았고, 코티(Coty)는 방어 포트폴리오에 맞지 않아 제외했다. 주니퍼 네트웍스는 후속 인터뷰 예고만 있었다.
다듬은 글
Capping off this crazy month where the market soared while the real economy plummeted— just think of the 30 million jobless claims in the last 6 weeks. I don't know, as I said at the beginning of the show. Let's, let's say, be a little more careful. Look, there have been some really positive developments that look like light at the end of the tunnel.
We have antiviral drugs that make COVID less devastating. We are gradually opening up the economy. The number of new cases has stabilized, and thanks to the Fed and the Treasury Department, businesses are getting the help they need to stay afloat. These are significant positives , but they don't change the fact that we are in a recession.
And that doesn't change the fact that we just had a giant breakout from the bottom that absorbed all this good news. And when you're in a recession, do you know what to do? You shouldn't be aggressive. This doesn't work. You should be cautious and stick to defensive stocks like CPG, as we call consumer staples .
These stocks are the big winners of the year. Although they have rebounded a bit in the past few weeks as Wall Street has become more optimistic about the economy. Remember , they buy oil companies, airlines, and cruise ships. And I see this as an opportunity to buy stocks like Clorox or Colgate-Palmolive.
They both report tomorrow morning. Proctor and Kimberly—two pillars that have already shown excellent results. But tonight I have something new for you . This is something I have n't talked about at all yet . And it's as famous a brand as any . It's called Reynolds Consumer Products. The company went public in January.
You know them as the ones that , look, if you open a drawer, I don't know, open a drawer in my house in the kitchen. Here it is . This is Reynolds foil, right? And then you open under the sink, and there they are. These are Hefty packages. Uh, and then disposable cups. They are there too. Easy foil.
I don't use that, but it's also their product. Reynolds debuted in late January without much fanfare. The deal was quiet but well received. When the pandemic began, stocks slumped from mid- February to mid- March, like all other stocks. Although they have since made a rapid comeback, rising from $24 to over $32 today.
So do they still have potential for growth? I have to say, I think this is exactly the kind of company that should thrive in a difficult economy where millions of Americans have lost their jobs. And where are they? Where are they? They are at home. On the other hand, stocks have already recovered significantly from the drop, and this is a new story.
So there may be hidden pitfalls that make stocks less attractive. That's why tonight we're going to play a game of "guess your IPO," albeit a bit belatedly. Yeah, you know, we've been doing so many interviews lately that I have n't had a chance to squeeze it in. But that's nothing. Especially considering Colgate and Clorox tomorrow.
If they are not perfect, this asset will fall. Maybe we should take a closer look so we can buy it. Let's start with financial indicators. As for the consumer goods market, Reynolds, well, it's not exactly a growth story. Their annual sales have been around 3 billion for the past 5 years. In fact, they fell by over 3% last year.
What about profits? The company's net profit jumped from $ 68 million in 2015 to $302 million in 2017 , before falling to $ 176 million in 2018. Last year, profits recovered to 225 million. This is an impressive 28% increase during a period when incomes were shrinking . Reynolds achieved this by finding ways to cut costs, significantly increasing gross margins.
Wall Street likes it. You have to remember that the last few years have been slow for most of the consumer goods industry. I mean, everyone loves Clorox now that COVID-19 has turned our world upside down , but until recently, they were also struggling to grow. So they aggressively set about increasing margins and cutting costs.
Reynolds followed the same path. OK. What about the balance sheet? Reynolds Consumer Products was formerly owned by Alcoa. I remember the days when it was Reynolds itself, but you know, Alcoa sold that division to a private equity firm in 2007. We should always be careful with IPOs backed by private equity, because they usually have a lot of debt.
They burden them with debts. Reynolds is no exception. They have $4.2 billion in total debt. Although they repaid a significant portion with the proceeds from the IPO. Fortunately, none of these debts are due for repayment anytime soon. And now that Reynolds has gone public, I'm confident the company will use the significant cash flow to gradually clean up its balance sheet.
That's good. Now, the choice here is pretty simple. Reynolds is a dominant player in almost every category where they compete. They have 94% of the freezer paper market and 64% of the aluminum foil market that I was talking about. 59% in the wax paper market. This is ours too. 51% parchment paper , 43% foam dishes, 22% street garbage bags, 22% holiday glasses.
And if they, uh, aren't first, well, they're second. Like, for example, with regular trash bags, where their Hefty brand has 20% of the market, which is two percentage points more than last year. This kind of market share growth is almost unheard of in the consumer goods sector. We heard that Clorox was desperately fighting for market share in trash bags.
Well, now we know that they were fighting Reynolds. In addition, Reynolds receives 45% of sales and about a quarter of profits from its own brands. These are the same analogues, versions of these products from chain brands. We know that consumers switch to private labels during recessions. It has always been that way.
Famous brands are starting to seem too expensive. But Reynolds wins in any scenario. Additionally, they are the exclusive private label supplier for Amazon, which I think could be a significant factor in an era where people are increasingly buying home goods online rather than in stores. Remember , Amazon's net profit results came in below expectations.
But the income was extraordinary tonight . So, let's be clear: we're not talking about any problems at Amazon when it comes to selling Reynolds products. The best thing is that this business is incredibly simple. It is a highly efficient, vertically integrated, low- cost manufacturer. Sells approximately 98% of its products here in the United States.
No need to worry about the dollar exchange rate; This makes them more attractive during this period of global economic turbulence. And , perhaps, in the future, this will mean that they have a lot of room for expansion abroad. Quality American consumer goods are still quite popular around the world.
We know that Barclays is a very solid firm when it comes to such stocks, and they actively recommend this particular company. They published a piece claiming that Reynolds could have best-in- class earnings growth throughout 2020 and 2021; I find these predictions quite convincing . Plus, it's obvious that Reynolds is perfect for this moment; their categories— trash bags, food bags, disposable tableware, aluminum foil—are all at peak demand right now as millions of people are forced to stay home and cook for themselves, as we heard from Campbell Soup last night.
According to Nielsen data, remember, Nielsen is extremely important for ratings. Garbage bag sales have increased by 15% over the last four weeks for which we have data. This is extraordinary. Food packages grew by almost 37%. Disposable tableware grew by 8%. Aluminum foil, just imagine , has grown by an impressive 44 %.
These are crazy growth rates. Of course, it didn't last long, but it's worth taking while you can. The entire industry is seeing huge volume growth, and Reynolds in particular has real pricing power right now. However, this is by no means a perfect story. Reynolds reports next week. I expect a phenomenal quarter, but some of that is already built into the stock price after such a run.
The thing is, this situation is temporary. In the long term, Reynolds has many challenges in delivering revenue growth. They are not great innovators when you think about the products they produce. If you believe that Americans will continue to avoid restaurants until a coronavirus vaccine is available , then growth could last until next year.
But in the long run, it's worth simply recognizing that this is unsustainable. Secondly, there is something about Reynolds that I don't like. They have a two-tier ownership structure where public shareholders simply will not have control over the company. Instead, it belongs to a certain Graham Hart.
This is a billionaire. This is a billionaire from New Zealand, the guy who runs the private equity firm that took Reynolds public. Remember, this is a story of a leveraged buyout , and they don't have the best reputation. Yes, we know about Burlington stores. You know, I like her. Dollar General was one of the best.
HCA, but one always has to be careful when it comes to private equity. This is Graham Hart's company. Hey, you're just participating in this . Still , I think there's something to see here. The stock is selling for just 18 times next year's earnings forecast, making it surprisingly cheap compared to its peers.
Clorox reports tomorrow, 27 times earnings. Colgate 23 times earnings. Proctor 23 times profit. And this one is only 18. Well, those have much higher dividends and a much longer track record. Reynolds has a yield of 1.9%. In summary, given the low valuation compared to other competitors, I find Reynolds attractive here.
But the company reports its first quarter next week, and the stock has already soared. So what to do? I like it. I recommend buying half of your position now and then waiting and buying more if they fall below 30 after the report. Let's move on to Daniel in New York. Daniel, hello. Greetings. I'm "Buya" from Brooklyn, New York.
Mr. Kramer, how are you doing? Oh my god, my neighbor. How are you? Okay, okay. Thank you for taking my call. It is an honor to speak with you. Thank you. Good. Good. Well, I'm forming a position in a global medical device and food packaging company that is due to report earnings in May . And I know that in times of uncertainty, fundamentals are crucial, now more than ever, for any investment decision.
Do you think I'm right, Cor? Dude, I think this is a really good company. I like stable companies that do packaging, you know, for food, for beverages. It's just a really good company. I'm glad you told me about this. I should do a piece about this in the current circumstances. Amcor—that's right. Let's move on to Adam from New York.
Adam, hello, Jim. Adam from New York. I own the Aiconado coffee company. We supply products to several markets, including the hospitality industry. A question for you. Although US Foods has been hit hard by the hospitality sector. I see expansion for them in the grocery and medical segments. Not enough.
Not enough. I don't want anything to do with catering. It's too complicated an industry right now. I don't want to touch her. Of all the different food companies that I have, if there's anything nutrition-related—it's just not good enough, I say no. Tariq from California, Tariq. Hi, Jim, how are you?
This is Tariq from Los Angeles. Okay, good to hear you on the show, what's up with you? I'm calling about Coty stock, C-O-T-Y. No, no, we pick the best players, yes, definitely, because they can be acquired, but you know what, we believe in Procter, okay, we believe in Kimberly , we'll take Clorox if the price drops tomorrow.
We hold Clorox and Colgate in our trust portfolio. Not Coty. Please choose quality over inferiority during a recession. I think there's a lot to like about the new Reynolds, R-E-Y-N. Buy a little now, and if the price goes down, buy more. Watch "Mad Money." COVID-19 is pushing companies towards cloud technologies.
How does a company like Juniper Networks hold up ? I'm going to talk to the CEO. Then— hedge funds have met a worthy challenger, and I'll explain why, along with all your calls at a rapid pace, in today's ". Missed something? Go to madmoney.cnbc.com .
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