저자: BillAckman · 외국인
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빌 애크먼은 2021년 가을 대규모 경기 호황이 올 것이라고 전망하며, 인플레이션과 금리 상승을 예상한다. 경기 전망: 델타 변이는 경제 회복에 큰 위협이 아니며, 사람들이 9월경 복귀하면서 강한 경기 회복이 나타날 것이라고 주장. 인플레이션: 주택 가격 상승과 실질 임금 상승을 근거로 인플레이션이 일시적이 아니라고 보며, CPI가 실제 물가 상승을 과소평가한다고 지적. 금리: 2021년 하반기 채권 수익률(금리)이 크게 상승할 것으로 예상. 다만 최근 10년물 금리가 1.22%로 5개월 저점에 하락한 것을 장기 고정금리 차입 기회로 봄. 포트폴리오: 1분기 기준 로우스, 힐튼, 레스토랑 브랜즈, 치폴레 등 외식·소매·호텔 업종 보유. 최근 도미노피자 주식을 매수. 2020년 3월: 시장 폭락 경고 후 불과 일주일 만에 베팅을 청산하고 강세로 전환하여 약 20억 달러 순이익을 거둠. SPAC: 퍼싱스퀘어 테이튼 홀딩스(40억 달러 규모)를 설립. 유니버설뮤직그룹 10% 지분 인수 계획은 SEC 우려로 무산되어 퍼싱스퀘어 홀딩스가 지분을 인수하기로 함. SPAC 가치는 발표 후 약 20% 하락. 리스크: 쉬운 돈과 SPAC 등 과도한 금융 확장은 문제를 일으킬 수 있다고 경고.
다듬은 글
the hedge fund titan who made headlines for saying hell is coming i've never had this experience before in my life the closest i had was the financial crisis where i'm saying you know things are coming bad stuff's coming now has a new prediction a massive economic boom by fall despite the dow jones industrial averages opening day drop of 900 points recently bill ackman told in an interview on monday that he believes a huge economic boom is coming in the autumn months ahead i think we're going to have an extremely strong economy uh come the fall i think people are going to return to work in september bill ackman made a net profit of more than 2 billion in march 2020 after selling his market bets less than a week after warning that hell is coming and pleading with the white house to shut down the country for a month he then used the money to bet on the return of previous pershing bets but i got bullish okay and the reason why i got bullish and i've been aggressively buying stocks including hilton the reason why is the only answer for the world is to shut the world for 30 days according to ackman the fund exited his bets against the market on march 23rd 2020.
ackman's u-turn occurred less than a week after claiming that the united states was in peril unless president donald trump closed the country for one month to slow the spread of covet 19. bill ackman is the founder and ceo of pershing square capital management lp a prominent hedge fund he has also headed pershing square holdings a public investment company since 2012 which provides extra funds for agmon to invest he has raised single stock funds on occasion in which individuals give him money to invest in a single company's shares rather than investing directly in that stock however ackman did something else last year it was a banner year for special purpose acquisition companies also known as spax a structure in which a financial superstar seeks funds from public investors in a blind pool in order to merge with and take public a private firm that would be named later as a well-known financial figure who excels at raising funds ackman chose to launch the world's largest spec pershing squared tontine holdings his spack raised 4 billion dollars bill ackman recently stated that the delta variant of coven 19 spread does not constitute a substantial threat to the economic revival and that interest rates will rise as a result of the significant comeback he stated that he thinks it will encourage anyone who has not yet received the vaccine to do so he went on to say that he doesn't believe it will have a significant impact on behavior people will witness a great economic boom according to akman and a very robust economy will emerge in the fall as the number of cases rises the delta variant is generating flare-ups in unvaccinated areas of the country leading to an increase in hospitalizations the variant is less dangerous than other strains according to akman the founder and ceo of pershing square capital management and the u.s could gain hurt immunity faster if more individuals recover from the infections bond yields according to the hedge fund manager would trend substantially higher in the second half of 2021 as the economy recovers from the pandemic induced recession he also claimed that he believes increased pricing across the market will not be as short-lived as politicians have promised referring to it as the new normal and implying that inflation is understated you're seeing housing prices go way up i think the way the data is collected uh for you know the uh the kind of cpi or other inflation numbers really understate what's going on uh in housing and that's you know approaching a third of inflation there's housing inflation there's real wage inflation you know one of the big issues and i think this is not a transitory thing at all i think you're going to have to pay people to come to work and i think that's a that's actually a big positive it's probably a long-term positive for the economy as we approach the new year ackman believes that yields will rise significantly as people recognize the economy will make a significant rebound the drop in treasury yields according to akman provided investors with a purchasing opportunity the 10-year benchmark rate dropped seven basis points to 1.22 percent its lowest level in five months according to him this move gives him the opportunity to borrow as much as he can at a long-term fix rate based on these rates the hedge fund manager has placed a large bet on the restaurant retail and hotel industries rebounding lowe's hilton restaurant brands and chipotle were among his top holdings at the conclusion of the first quarter following a pullback he just purchased domino's pizza stock by the way if you've enjoyed this content so far please consider subscribing i post videos every wednesday eckman also discussed his blank check company's decision to back out of a plan to buy 10 percent of universal music group when speculators objected to the deal structure instead of the spec his pershing square holdings hedge fund will now assume the stake mr ackman's special purpose acquisition company would have bought a 10 interest in universal music the label behind taylor swift lil wayne and lady gaga for more than 40 billion dollars under the planned deal however the transaction would have been difficult and the sec was unsure if it qualified as a spec at all easy money made by things like spax and total return derivatives and so on and so on you push that to excess it causes horrible problems with the civil civilization these blank check firms which employ public market cash to invest in a private company and then take it public have attracted a lot of interest from investors and increased regulatory scrutiny in the last year mr ackman claimed in a letter to investors that his investment firm pershing capital had failed to persuade the agency to change its mind on the complex deal persian capital taunton holdings the spak had lost about a fifth of its value since the purchase was disclosed so investors were cautious as well thank you guys for watching this episode see you again next time
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