저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 연준의 양적완화 축소(테이퍼링)가 2013년 테이퍼 텐트럼과 유사한 충격을 줄 수 있다는 경고. 배경: 연준은 2008년 금융위기 이후 약 2조 달러 규모의 채권·자산을 매입하는 양적완화를 2008~2013년 시행했으며, 2013년 테이퍼링 발표 시 시장이 급락하고 달러가 강세를 보이며 신흥국 통화가 급락했다. 현재 우려: 2021년 2월~3월 미 국채 10년물 금리가 1.2%에서 약 1.8%로 급등했고, 바이든 재정패키지로 인플레이션과 경기과열 우려가 커졌다. 이후 금리는 안정됐으나 금리는 하락 추세로 되돌아갔다. 연준 대응: 6월 FOMC에서 일부 매파 발언이 나왔지만, 월 자산매입 축소 전 충분한 사전 고지를 약속해 시장을 진정시켰다. 전망: 경제학자들은 2022년 분기당 약 1000억 달러 수준으로 양적완화 속도가 둔화될 것으로 예측했다. 리스크 시나리오: 테이퍼링 시 미 국채금리 상승, 위험자산 회피, 주가 급락, 차입자(정부·기업) 상환 부담 증가, 성장 둔화가 이어질 수 있다. 신흥국 영향: 외국인 자본 유출과 급격한 자본흐름 반전으로 통화가 크게 평가절하되고 중앙은행의 금리 인상 압박이 커질 수 있다(브라질·인도·인도네시아·터키·남아공 등 취약 5개국 언급). 마이클 버리 언급: 버리는 2021년 2월 트윗에서 팬데믹 회복과 추가 부양 시 물가 상승을 경고했다고 소개됐다. 결론적 질문: 2013년 테이퍼 텐트럼의 속편이 곧 올 수 있는가.
다듬은 글
the stage is set jerome powell versus quantitative tightening the next massive financial news story that will rock the stock market to its core is when the federal reserve led by jerome powell decides to tap the brakes on the money printing and taper asset purchases this could happen as soon as later this month this would not be the first time the federal reserve has had to scale back its soft financial policy after helping revive a weakened u.s economy back in 2013 the fed began tapering asset purchase after the us had shown signs of recovery from the 2008 financial crisis the results of this taper were very surprising to say the least what were those results and could we see the same thing happen again later this year well keep listening because i'll be covering all that in this video what was the original taper tantrums plot the storyline revolved around the 2008 global financial crisis the federal reserve started its now famous quantitative easing policy as the financial system lingered on the verge of a catastrophe this entailed purchasing significant amounts of bonds and other securities with the purpose of enhancing financial system liquidity and stability as well as stimulating lending this was expected to boost economic growth by lowering borrowing costs encouraging consumers to spend and companies to invest again the policy was effective between 2008 and 2013 the federal reserve purchased about 2 trillion dollars in u.s treasury bonds and other assets markets had made a strong comeback investors learned to rely on this tremendous market support therefore a quantitative easing policy may have worked too well then there was the twist the committee decided starting next month to modestly reduce the pace at which it is increasing the size of the federal reserve's balance sheet vernon key said in 2013 that the fed will begin to cut or taper the number of assets purchases it was doing at the time the fed chair learned a crucial lesson in how not to design an exit strategy as a result of his action investors responded negatively to his remark fearful that the world's largest bond buyer was fleeing stage left the value of the us dollar increased as a result of the quick sale of u.s treasuries as foreign capital withdrew and their currencies sank dramatically emerging economies particularly the fragile five of brazil india indonesia turkey and south africa struggled the taper tantrum was born out of this it was dubbed a tantrum because it was viewed as an overreaction similar to a toddler whose comfort blanket had been taken away markets continued to improve rather than collapse after the tapering began why are some investors concerned about a sequel the current market saga may be traced back to february and march of this year when long-term interest rates in the united states surged in anticipation of the federal reserve tightening its monetary policies new concerns about inflation and economic overheating arose as a result of u.s president joe biden's hefty fiscal packages 10-year treasury yields climbed from under 1.2 percent to close to 1.8 percent last month before stabilizing and reverting back to earlier levels despite some worries following the policy setting federal open market committee's june meeting when some fomc members took a more hawkish stance the fed managed to keep markets calm by agreeing to give plenty of notice before commencing to cut its monthly asset purchases interest rates have dropped significantly since then what might go wrong economists predict that the pace of quantitative easing will slow to roughly 100 billion dollars per quarter in 2022.
back in 2013 the mirror mentioned by the fed that would reduce a previous big bond buying program sent stocks into a swoon as in 2013 the prospect of another taper tantrum might cause u.s treasury yields to rise and investors to become more risk averse stock markets would plummet and as investors shied away from risky assets borrowers whether governments or corporations would be less able to repay their debt obligations tightening financial conditions for the government and businesses may stifle growth if confidence plummets and spending is curtailed in the meantime a rise in bankruptcies would raise unemployment a sudden halt and reversal of capital flows in emerging markets could force currencies to devalue significantly pushing central banks to hike interest rates the combination of outflows of foreign capital and a drop in domestic demand would stifle growth in emerging markets we should also recall the time when michael bury advised everyone to prepare for inflation michael bury a well-known investor and the founder of scion asset management shared his thoughts on the market brewery is well known for being the first investor to correctly foresee and profit from the u.s subprime mortgage crisis which occurred between 2007 and 2010.
back in february this year he posted a series of tweets warning that prices would rise when the economy recovers from the pandemic and another round of stimulus is implemented from all this can it be stated that the sequel to the 2013 taper tantrum is coming soon
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