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I'm delighted to be here with Jim Rogers famed investor bestselling author of various books including investment biker Adventure capitalist and his latest Street smarts after seeven seven highly profitable years with the quantum fund he decided to retire and travel the world twice once by motorcycle and once by car even making it to the Guinness Book of World Records Jim now lives in Singapore where he teaches his two daughters mandering Chinese because he's convinced that the 21st century will be for China welcome Jim I'm delighted to be here Olaf I will have to say I've been stunned by the university uh UFM it's amazing I still it's almost incomprehensible that it happened and that it's been so successful so I'm very pleased to be here we're glad you could make it Jim thank you very much let's first go back to the beginning Jim you studied at Oxford then went to Yale then you start to Yale and then to Oxford ah Yale then Oxford yes and then you went to work for an investment Bank in New York and then in 1973 you started the quantum fund some sources say the quantum fund returned 4200 per in 10 years time and um could you commment could you give some thoughts about that period how you look how do you look back on that period well it was actually 19 1970 and 1980 we were up 4,200 per the market was up 47% in that period of Time how do I look back on it well I had an exhilarating time as you can imagine if you're up 4,200 per when the decade when the Market's up 47% it's got to be exhilarating because you're doing something right now if we've done it wrong you wouldn't be talking to me right now so it's a lot of fun I I worked all day every day because I was having so much it wasn't work to me it was fun it's a lot of fun and acceleration it's good to give some context because in the 70s I think we had one of the greatest bull markets in Commodities right how did you you have a bull market in Commodities we mainly were investing in stocks but we did currencies we did bonds we did stock we did everything and worldwide stocks or you mainly investing everywhere everywhere we were one of the original funds that inter it was an international fund we didn't know any better we just were doing doing everything and having fun and any investments in specifics that turned out to be really good and other maybe there were lots there were lots we we we had we invested in energy stocks uh long before other people and they skyrocketed we shorted the pound which uh collapsed defense stocks many things we did that's interesting that was in the 70s since then has your investment style changed or philosophy well the only style that's changed in those days we used a lot of Leverage we borrowed a huge amount of money I don't borrow money now for the most part to make my investments I'm too lazy if you borrow a lot of money you better be right unfortunately and you can make a lot more if you borrow money if you're right if you're wrong you can go bankrupt in an afternoon so I don't usually I'm too lazy to borrow money now and what kind of Leverage did you use at the quantum fund was it the legal maximum the legal maximum the absolute legal Max you had to be right all the time you had to be right every day and how would you describe your investment philosophy although it hasn't changed much over low and sell High you know if you find things that are cheap where there's positive change taking place chances are you'll make a lot of money and Jim we're looking back now at the 70s but speaking of today have you ever been as pessimistic as today 1987 I was terribly pessimistic about the market and not so much the economy uh probably not probably well no in in the dotc bubble I was very pessimistic I knew that to collapse I was short technology a couple of times but today is well in 19 2008 I was pessimistic I told everybody frequently that Fanny May would go bankrupt etc etc so and the investment Banks would go bankrupt so no I've been pessimistic a few times in my life but is it worse than the 7 this time will be worse this time will be much worse because there's so much more debt now in the in the previous times America had debt and the world had debt but now it's much higher but now even China has debt and the last time around China didn't have much debt so China could spend a lot of money when things went bad but even China has debt now well we will dig in that subject a little bit more later but I want to go to your book hot Commodities I think you published it in 1999 if I'm correct or maybe 98 not not correct it was probably the we started a Index Fund 98 the that book was probably published in 2005 or six 2005 and six probably and the fund in in 99 before you went traveling right before the reason I started that Index Fund it was an index fund was because I was bullish on Commodities but I was about to spend three years driving around the world so I knew I couldn't sit and and watch my my investments so I started an index fund which made it simple for me to invest my own money in Commodities and since then of course you had you just to summarize the book a little bit you say in the book that Commodities are ones of a lifetime opportunity at the late 90s once every there's Cycles in investing in Commodities and the cycle was about to turn again not once in a lifetime I hope I live long enough to see many commodity Cycles but I I did have the view that the cycle was changing so you were completely on the spot commodity prices Rose maybe until 2011 when most commodity prices peaked um where are we today where are we commodi have gone down a lot since then for a variety of reasons one because they went up so much I would suspect that we're making a a bottom a complicated bottom for most Commodities and that they will be going higher for a while so they'll go higher but complicated btom means probably there's cor spikes down I assure you they will be spikes there always are when something has a big drop always times like that so yes will be some more spikes so gold has gone up for instance to $1,300 right now per ounce will it go down again then I am not buying gold at the moment I expect to be able to buy gold later at a lower price but who knows I Olaf I want you to know I'm the world's worst Market timer I am horrible at short-term trading so don't listen to me can you expand a little bit on that I've heard you saying this quite a lot that you're the worst Market time in the world but how do you stay alive meanwhile I mean your short tech stocks I think yeah how do you I mean Amazon is really is a risky it's a risky short how do you stay alive meanwhile until the market gets there to well I don't have all of my money short Tech you know it's a it's it's not and not the the only thing that I have a position in and I have Longs which may or may not offset it now sometimes my Longs go down and my shorts go up I lose money on both sides but I have a lot of Investments and I think you said somewhere else that maybe a recession will hit maybe this year maybe next year I assure you there will be a recession uh in some places already in recession Olaf Japan is already in recession it's here people who don't think there's going to be a recession should look out the window because many countries already and many sectors are already having recession and that will mean a drop like in 2008 a drop in commodity prices or Commodities already gone it' be more more of a St a drop in stocks and currencies that's interesting I want to go to the and bonds and bonds and bonds as well I want to go to the depth part because it's really important in Europe we have negative interest rates across the board uh Jim I know you're very skeptic about central banks Central Banking in general did you see this coming see what negative interest rates I did not see negative interest rates coming it never occurred to me I certainly so zero no interest rates coming but it never occurred to me they would do something so foolish and why are rates negative CU they don't know what they're doing these central banks are run by academics and bureaucrats who don't have a clue they don't know what they're doing if you some of them will admit they don't know what they're doing they're just trying everything that they can think of and it gets worse and worse and worse and do you think central Bankers can do this indefinitely those slow or negative interest they will try because they don't know what else to do but in definitely no it's going to be a time Olaf when the Market's going to say we're not going to play this game anymore we don't care we're not going to do what you think we're going to do and what will happen then according to you interest rates will go higher interest rates will go much higher we will all lose a lot of money we will all be furious we will all be unhappy not all some people will do well but for the most part most people it's an interesting trade perhaps maybe we can zoom in on European bonds for instance or Japanese bonds is it a good opportunity short those bonds or what in my view yes I'm not short either of those bonds I'm short junk Bonds in the US but uh yeah anything you can figure out to do in the interest rate markets on the short side you're probably going to make money and and what will signal exactly that interest rates will rise what what Clues are you looking for what sign they've already started interest rates have already started rising in many sectors it's just going to continue Jim who's the worst the world's worst Central Banker is it Jenna jellen Mario dragi boy the world's worst the Japanese it's a tie it's a tie between dragy and the Japanese and Janet Yellen bad it's a it's a tie and and what's the way out I mean in Japan let's take Japan for instance they're heavily in deped there is no way way out there is no way out interest rates are going to go higher the Japanese government is going to ser suffered dramatically astonishingly but so is everybody else you know the American government the European governments we're all going to suffer badly there's there's no way out let's say tomorrow they make you president of Japan would you refuse refuse the job or president of Japan or the president of the Japanese Central Bank no of the country if I were president of Japan I would abolish the central bank and then I would resign because I wouldn't want to be around to see the bad The Bad Times um I want to focus a little bit on the commodity I think you have Commodities I think you have some emerging market stocks in Russia maybe in China uh you have some cash you have dollars at least and maybe some other currencies but what are the relation how how much cash do you for instance currently hold is it somewhere near 10% or 50% I don't know because I don't measure these things all of I don't have a committee you know it's just my money and I don't sit around saying how much do I have in all these places I do have a fair amount of cash but I have no idea I have Market you know I have money invested in a lot of places and a lot of things of course I remember reading about you uh in Barren I think Jim Grant made a comment once about you that there were I don't recall the exact year but you were there and there was a panel of course with stock market predictions everyone said that there were no no signs of recession or stock market crash you were the only one who predicted the stock market crash at the time and Jim Grant said this and and you were right the stock market crashed recession hit so what is your secret sometimes I get it right Olaf I tell you I've made plenty of mistakes in my life but do you use any type of indicators or or no I just I just sit and read the newspaper just watch look out the window to see what's going on and try to pay attention sure we we we talk a little about Guatemala how much you like it here how much you like the University at least well like Guatemala a great deal uh this is my third trip to Guatemala I wish Guatemala had a better history a better story uh it doesn't and maybe that will change maybe things this University a UFM is one of the things that might change Guatemala that might bring some sanity to Guatemalan politicians uh I've been extraordinarily impressed by this University I did some homework before I came but I've been BL Blown Away by what I have found here and Guatemala is wonderful I just I hope you get it together you just arrived at the airport what what are the first signs you're looking for as an investor you invested in in in a dozen of markets around the world what is the first thing you're well the first thing you look at when you arrive anywhere uh is what's the border crossing like whether it's in the jungle or at the at the international airport and I'm delighted to say that coming into Guatemala was very easy which is a good sign at least they're somewhat receptive to something that's good news and what other countries do you like most right now for investing oh Russia China I still own Chinese shares uh although I see problems coming uh Russia China countries where I'm looking to invest or Kazakhstan uh Iran Nigeria these are places where good things are happening Colombia I have some small investment in Colombia I would like to invest in North Korea that's difficult for me because I'm an American there are some good things happening out there let's focus on on Russia a little bit Russia you were bearish on Russia for I think you've said 60 years no no I'm old but I'm not that old I was beish on Russia for 47 years 47 years7 in Russia what what made you change your mind there must have been one thing no I well first Russia has gigantic uh assets resources uh doesn't have a lot of debt has a convertible currency which is strange for countries like that uh but I saw changes in the Kremlin I was bearish on Russia for 47 years for many reasons but then I saw changes positive changes taking place in the government in the kremin so you know when things change you're supposed to change too and what what specific change did you see well before they before Russia for 100 years would just take your money away shoot you or both shoot you and take your money away but they s and put all kind of regulations on but then something happened in the kemin realized you cannot do that to investors certainly not International investors if you want to attract investment and money for the future they understood they started investing with International investors so that the risk was shared they started doing all sorts of things I have seen steps backsliding but still for the most part it seems better even though the the current situation around Ukraine for instance and Europe well first of all the Ukraine that's that's the US that did that I mean you've probably been reading American propaganda but the US was the one who instigated an illegal coup in Ukraine unfortunately for America and I'm an American uh the Russians outsmarted us and turned around and the Russians wound up on on top in that thing but many people including some Europeans still think it's America's fault there sanctions still there although they're trying to get rid of the sanctions but no that's that came from a that came from Washington DC that did not come from Moscow okay let me close with the last question Jim looking back in the past what was the best moment for you in investing the best moment in investing well probably the stock market crash in 1987 uh as you may remember remember the American Stock Market went down 20% in one day went down a lot 25 or 30% in a week which are these are staggering moves on the downside or the upside was the biggest down day in the history of the American Stock Market and I was short I I had shorted the American Stock Market I knew that thought I knew this was coming it never occurred to me there would be the biggest down day in the history of America and that I would be short the market it happened to be on my birthday too so it was the best birthday present I ever had you were short the market or short certain stocks both specific stocks in those days it was not as easy to be short the market as it is now these days you can short ETFs and all it's easy to short the averages those days I was mainly short stocks and today it was wonderful I couldn't believe it I sat and couldn't believe it was happening I it un unfolded right in front of my eyes and I was it was a very good day and today you're doing the same you're shorting the ETF and some I'm not short the American I am short the American Market but not as big now as I was short in 1987 and if something like that happens again in America which it might well hopefully I'll get it right great thank you for coming Jim happy to have you here thank you for joining us well see you next time
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