저자: JimRogers · 외국인
요약 보기
짐 로저스는 2016년 시점에서 경기침체가 임박했고 이번 침체는 과거보다 훨씬 심각할 것이라고 주장한다. 과거 경력: 1970~80년대 퀀텀펀드에서 연 4,200% 수익을 냈다고 회고하며 당시 레버리지를 크게 썼다고 말한다. 현재는 레버리지를 거의 쓰지 않는다. 금리: 전 세계 중앙은행의 마이너스 금리는 어리석은 실험이며, 시장이 이 게임을 멈추는 순간 금리가 크게 오를 것이라고 본다. 일본·미국·유럽 정부 모두 큰 고통을 겪을 것이라고 전망한다. 금리 방향에서는 미국 정크본드를 공매도 중이라고 밝힌다. 원자재: 2000년대 원자재 강세장 책을 낸 뒤 원자재가 2011년경 고점을 쳤다고 본다. 현재 원자재는 복잡한 바닥을 만들고 있으며 한동안 더 오를 것으로 보지만 중간에 급락 스파이크가 있을 것이라 경고한다. 금은 당시 온스당 약 1,300달러로, 지금은 사지 않고 더 낮은 가격에 살 수 있기를 기대한다고 말한다. 주식: 2016년 당시 미국 기술주 일부(아마존 등)를 공매도했다고 언급하며, 1987년 대폭락 때 공매도로 큰 수익을 낸 경험을 회상한다. 현재는 미국 시장을 공매도하고 있지만 1987년만큼은 아니라고 한다. 국가별: 러시아는 47년간 약세로 봤으나 크렘린의 변화로 입장을 바꿨다. 중국 주식은 보유 중이나 문제가 올 것으로 본다. 카자흐스탄, 이란, 나이지리아, 콜롬비아 등에 관심을 표명한다. 출연자 전망: 짐 로저스 본인은 단기 시장 타이밍에 서툴다고 스스로 말하며, 단기 예측에는 신뢰를 두지 말라고 덧붙인다.
다듬은 글
I'm delighted to be here with Jim Rogers, the famed investor and bestselling author of several books, including *Investment Biker*, *Adventure Capitalist*, and his latest, *Street Smarts*. After seven highly profitable years with the Quantum Fund, he decided to retire and travel the world, twice: once by motorcycle and once by car, even making it into the Guinness Book of World Records. Jim now lives in Singapore, where he teaches his two daughters Mandarin Chinese, because he's convinced that the 21st century will belong to China. Welcome, Jim. I'm delighted to be here. I have to say I've been stunned by the University UFM. It's amazing. It's almost incomprehensible that it happened and that it's been so successful, so I'm very pleased to be here.
We're glad you could make it, Jim. Thank you very much. Let's go back to the beginning. Jim, you studied at Yale and then at Oxford, then you went to work for an investment bank in New York, and in 1973 you started the Quantum Fund. Some sources say the Quantum Fund returned 4,200 percent in ten years. Could you share some thoughts about that period and how you look back on it?
It was actually 1970 to 1980, and we were up 4,200 percent, while the market was up 47% in that period. How do I look back on it? I had an exhilarating time, as you can imagine. If you're up 4,200 percent in a decade when the market is up 47%, it has to be exhilarating, because you're doing something right. If we'd done it wrong, you wouldn't be talking to me right now. It was a lot of fun. I worked all day, every day, because it wasn't work to me, it was fun.
It's good to give some context, because in the '70s I think we had one of the greatest bull markets in commodities, right? How did you invest in commodities?
We mainly invested in stocks, but we did currencies, we did bonds, we did everything, and worldwide. We were one of the original funds that were international. We didn't know any better, so we were doing everything and having fun. Were there specific investments that turned out to be really good?
There were lots. We invested in energy stocks long before other people, and they skyrocketed. We shorted the pound, which collapsed. Defense stocks, many things. We did a lot of things.
That's interesting, that was in the '70s. Since then, has your investment style or philosophy changed?
The only thing that's changed is that in those days we used a lot of leverage. We borrowed a huge amount of money. Now, for the most part, I don't borrow money to make my investments. I'm too lazy. If you borrow a lot of money, you'd better be right, unfortunately. You can make a lot more if you borrow and you're right, but if you're wrong, you can go bankrupt in an afternoon. So I usually don't borrow now. I'm too lazy.
What kind of leverage did you use at the Quantum Fund? Was it the legal maximum?
The absolute legal maximum. You had to be right all the time, every day.
How would you describe your investment philosophy? Has it changed much?
It hasn't changed much over the years: buy low and sell high. If you find things that are cheap and where positive change is taking place, chances are you'll make a lot of money.
Jim, looking back at the '70s, but speaking of today, have you ever been as pessimistic as you are today?
In 1987 I was terribly pessimistic about the market, not so much about the economy. Probably not, well, no. In the dot-com bubble I was very pessimistic. I knew it would collapse, and I was short technology a couple of times. But in 2008 I was pessimistic too. I told everybody frequently that Fannie Mae would go bankrupt, and the investment banks would go bankrupt. So I've been pessimistic a few times in my life.
Is this time worse than 2008?
This time will be much worse, because there's so much more debt now. In previous times America had debt and the world had debt, but now it's much higher. Even China has debt now, and last time around China didn't have much debt, so China could spend a lot of money when things went bad. But even China has debt now.
We'll dig into that subject a little more later, but I want to go to your book, *Hot Commodities*. I think you published it in 1999, or maybe 1998?
Not quite. We started an index fund in 1998, and the book was probably published in 2005 or 2006.
And the fund in '99, before you went traveling?
Right, the reason I started that index fund was that I was bullish on commodities, but I was about to spend three years driving around the world. I knew I couldn't sit and watch my investments, so I started an index fund, which made it simple for me to invest my own money in commodities.
Just to summarize the book a little: you say in it that commodities were a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity in the late '90s. Cycles in investing in commodities come around, and the cycle was about to turn again. Not once in a lifetime. I hope I live long enough to see many commodity cycles, but I did have the view that the cycle was changing. So you were completely on the spot. Commodity prices rose, maybe until 2011, when most commodity prices peaked. Where are we today?
Commodities have gone down a lot since then, for a variety of reasons. One is that they went up so much. I suspect we're making a complicated bottom for most commodities, and that they'll go higher for a while. So they'll go higher, but a complicated bottom probably means there will be sharp spikes down. I assure you there will be spikes; there always are when something has a big drop. So yes, there will be more spikes.
So gold has gone up to around $1,300 an ounce right now. Will it go down again?
I'm not buying gold at the moment. I expect to be able to buy gold later at a lower price, but who knows. I want you to know I'm the world's worst market timer. I'm horrible at short-term trading, so don't listen to me.
Can you expand on that a little? I've heard you say this quite a lot, that you're the worst market timer in the world. But how do you stay alive in the meantime? You're short tech stocks, I think, and Amazon is really a risky short. How do you stay alive until the market gets there?
I don't have all my money short tech. It's not the only thing I have a position in. I have longs, which may or may not offset it. Sometimes my longs go down and my shorts go up, and I lose money on both sides, but I have a lot of investments.
I think you said somewhere else that a recession might hit, maybe this year, maybe next year.
I assure you there will be a recession. In some places it's already in recession. Japan is already in recession. People who don't think there's going to be a recession should look out the window, because many countries and many sectors are already in recession. That will mean a drop like in 2008, a drop in commodity prices, or, commodities have already gone down, so more of a drop in stocks and currencies.
That's interesting. I want to go to bonds, and to the depth of the issue, because it's really important. In Europe we have negative interest rates across the board. Jim, I know you're very skeptical about central banks and central banking in general. Did you see this coming, negative interest rates?
I did not see negative interest rates coming. It never occurred to me. I certainly saw zero interest rates coming, but it never occurred to me they would do something so foolish.
Why are rates negative?
Because they don't know what they're doing. These central banks are run by academics and bureaucrats who don't have a clue. Some of them will admit they don't know what they're doing. They're just trying everything they can think of, and it gets worse and worse.
Do you think central bankers can keep this up indefinitely, these slow or negative interest rates?
They will try, because they don't know what else to do, but indefinitely, no. There will be a time when the market says we're not going to play this game anymore. We don't care, we're not going to do what you think we're going to do.
And what will happen then, according to you?
Interest rates will go higher, much higher. We will all lose a lot of money. We will all be furious and unhappy. Not all of us; some people will do well, but for most people it's going to be bad.
It's an interesting trade. Perhaps we can zoom in on European bonds, for instance, or Japanese bonds. Is it a good opportunity to short those bonds?
In my view, yes. I'm not short either of those bonds. I'm short junk bonds in the US, but anything you can figure out to do in the interest-rate markets on the short side, you're probably going to make money on.
What signal would tell you that interest rates will rise? What clues are you looking for?
They've already started rising in many sectors, and it's just going to continue.
Jim, who is the world's worst central banker? Is it Janet Yellen, Mario Draghi, or the Japanese?
It's a tie between Draghi and the Japanese, and Janet Yellen is bad too. It's a tie.
What's the way out? Let's take Japan for instance. They're heavily indebted. Is there a way out?
There is no way out. Interest rates are going to go higher. The Japanese government is going to suffer dramatically, astonishingly, but so is everybody else: the American government, the European governments. We're all going to suffer badly. There's no way out.
Let's say tomorrow they make you president of Japan, or president of the Japanese central bank. Would you refuse the job?
If I were president of Japan, I would abolish the central bank, and then I would resign, because I wouldn't want to be around to see the bad times.
I want to focus a little on commodities. I think you have some emerging-market stocks in Russia, maybe in China. You have some cash, at least dollars, and maybe some other currencies. How much cash do you currently hold? Is it near 10% or 50%?
I don't know, because I don't measure these things. I don't have a committee. It's just my money, and I don't sit around calculating how much I have in each place. I do have a fair amount of cash, but I have no idea of the exact figure. I have money invested in a lot of places and a lot of things.
I remember reading about you in *Barron's*. I think Jim Grant made a comment about you once. I don't recall the exact year, but there was a panel with stock market predictions, and everyone said there were no signs of recession or a stock market crash. You were the only one who predicted the crash at the time, and Jim Grant said this, and you were right. The stock market crashed and recession hit. What is your secret?
Sometimes I get it right. I've made plenty of mistakes in my life. Do you use any indicators?
No, I just sit and read the newspaper, watch, look out the window to see what's going on, and try to pay attention.
We talked a little about Guatemala. How much do you like it here, at least the University?
I like Guatemala a great deal. This is my third trip to Guatemala. I wish Guatemala had a better history, a better story. It doesn't, and maybe that will change. This University, UFM, is one of the things that might change Guatemala and might bring some sanity to Guatemalan politicians. I've been extraordinarily impressed by this University. I did some homework before I came, but I've been blown away by what I've found here. Guatemala is wonderful. I just hope you get it together.
You just arrived at the airport. What are the first signs you look for as an investor? You've invested in a dozen markets around the world.
The first thing I look at when I arrive anywhere is what the border crossing is like, whether it's in the jungle or at the international airport. I'm delighted to say that coming into Guatemala was very easy, which is a good sign. At least they're somewhat receptive to something that's good news.
What other countries do you like most right now for investing?
Russia, China. I still own Chinese shares, although I see problems coming. Countries where I'm looking to invest are Kazakhstan, Iran, Nigeria. These are places where good things are happening. Colombia, I have some small investment in. I would like to invest in North Korea, but that's difficult for me because I'm an American. There are some good things happening out there.
Let's focus on Russia a little. You were bearish on Russia for, I think you've said, 60 years?
No, I'm old, but I'm not that old. I was bearish on Russia for 47 years.
Forty-seven years. What made you change your mind? There must have been one thing.
Well, first, Russia has gigantic assets and resources. It doesn't have a lot of debt, and it has a convertible currency, which is strange for countries like that. But I saw changes in the Kremlin. I was bearish on Russia for 47 years for many reasons, but then I saw positive changes taking place in the government. When things change, you're supposed to change too.
What specific change did you see?
For a hundred years, before, they would just take your money away, shoot you, or both, and put all kinds of regulations on you. Then something happened in the Kremlin. They realized you cannot do that to investors, certainly not international investors, if you want to attract investment and money for the future. They understood, and they started investing with international investors, so that the risk was shared. They started doing all sorts of things. I have seen some backsliding, but for the most part it seems better.
Even with the current situation around Ukraine, and Europe?
First of all, Ukraine. The US is the one that did that. You've probably been reading American propaganda, but the US instigated an illegal coup in Ukraine. Unfortunately, for America, and I'm an American, the Russians outsmarted us and wound up on top. But many people, including some Europeans, still think it's America's fault. The sanctions are still there, although they're trying to get rid of them. But that came from Washington, D.C., not from Moscow.
Okay, let me close with the last question. Looking back, what was the best moment for you in investing?
Probably the stock market crash in 1987. As you may remember, the American stock market went down 20% in one day, and 25 or 30% in a week. These are staggering moves, on the downside or the upside. It was the biggest down day in the history of the American stock market, and I was short. I had shorted the American stock market. I thought I knew this was coming, but it never occurred to me there would be the biggest down day in American history and that I would be short the market. It happened to be on my birthday, too, so it was the best birthday present I ever had.
Were you short the market, or short certain stocks?
Specific stocks. In those days it was not as easy to short the market as it is now. These days you can short ETFs, and it's easy to short the averages. Back then I was mainly short stocks. It was wonderful. I couldn't believe it. I sat there and couldn't believe it was happening. It unfolded right in front of my eyes, and it was a very good day.
And today you're doing the same, shorting the ETF?
I'm short the American market, but not as big as I was short in 1987. If something like that happens again in America, which it might well, hopefully I'll get it right.
Great, thank you for coming, Jim. Happy to have you here.
Thank you for joining us. See you next time.
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