저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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금 가격은 최근 랠리 후 사상 최고가에 근접했고 유로/파운드 기준으로는 이미 신고가를 경신했다고 주장. 트럼프 당선 이후 달러 강세는 재정완화와 성장 기대 때문이며, 그 기대가 틀렸다고 보고 달러가 결국 약해질 것으로 봄. 관세 확대(중국 등)가 이뤄지면 2차 달러 강세와 신흥국 통화 약세, 원자재 가격 하락이 올 수 있음. 금은 단기적으로 3000달러 부근에서 수개월간 머물 가능성이 있으나, 달러 약세 시 3000달러 돌파 및 3113달러가 다음 저항으로 제시됨.
다듬은 글
gold has almost recovered all of that in fact if you look at its record high uh from you know a couple of weeks earlier we're only about two and a half% below the all-time record high uh for the price of gold and if you measure gold in Euros or in British Pounds as a lot of people obviously do because there's a lot of people that live in Europe or the UK gold closed at an all-time record high in those currencies and remember gold was making all-time record highs in foreign currencies before it eventually started making all-time highs in the dollar as well and I expect that to be the case it's just lagging a bit due to the strength of the dollar the price of gold has surged by 24% in 2024 reaching around $2,570 per ounce though it has seen a slight pullback since hitting an all-time high in October Peter Schiff Chief Economist at europacific asset man management remains bullish on Gold's future in a recent interview he forecasted that the current rally could be just the beginning stating if gold can go from $20 an ounce to $2600 an ounce it can go from $2,600 to $26,000 or $100,000 a rise to $100,000 would represent a staggering upside of over $ 3700% emphasizing the potential for significant future gains despite Gold's impressive price increase the overall sentiment within the market remains surprisingly muted historically significant Ries in gold prices have been met with widespread optimism and enthusiasm from investors however this time the response appears far more subdued even with the substantial rise in gold prices the atmosphere at industry conferences and among Market participants has not reflected the same excitement as in previous rallies this discrepancy between Gold's strong performance and the lack of enthusiasm from the market has raised questions about the underlying factors driving investor sentiment and the broader economic context in which this rally is taking place one major factor influencing the gold market and overall Financial conditions is the strength of the US dollar the dollar has strengthened considerably due to expectations of a robust US economy particularly under the current Administration however there are growing concerns about the sustainability of this strength the prevailing narrative has been that the US economy outperforms other major economies bolstering confidence in the dollar however some analysts argue that this perception may be flawed pointing to emerging signs that the US economy may not be as strong as the market believes as the market digests new data and adjusts its expectations the future trajectory of the dollar and its potential impact on gold prices remains a key consideration for investor gold has had the best year between conferences since I can remember I remember at the last conference there was a lot of discussion about whether or not gold would make it above 2,000 I was one of the people there that that thought that it would of course I wasn't the only one it was a gold conference so there were people that thought gold would make it above 2,000 but it was below 2,000 and uh between that last conference and this one we've had this explosive rally you would think oh there'd be a lot more excitement a lot more enthusiasm but not really I mean I really couldn't tell much of a difference between the environment this year and the environment last year I mean there's just not a lot of excitement yet uh in the gold market despite the fact that gold actually Rose almost 4% on the week it closed at 2750 uh so back above 2700 we're only about $35 below where we were when Trump surprised the markets or maybe not surprised them but Trump won and that inspired a big rally in the dollar and a decline in Gold well gold has almost recovered all of that in fact if you look at its record high uh from you know a couple of weeks earlier we're only about 2 and a half% below the all-time record high uh for the price of gold and if you measure gold in Euros or in British Pounds as a lot of people obviously do because there's a lot of people that live in Europe or the UK gold closed at an all-time record high in those currencies and remember gold was making all-time record highs in foreign currencies before it eventually started making all-time highs in the dollar as well and I expect that to be the case it's just lagging a bit due to the strength of the dollar in fact fact the dollar closed the week at about a three-year High I think in the dollar Index it closed at 107 A5 the euro is barely holding on to a 104 handle it got to as high as 112 uh not too long ago and the entire rally of the euro is based on Trump winning now I know we got some weak uh economic data coming out of the Euro Zone last week especially on Friday the the pmis that came out uh were particularly weak but you know the US pmis have been weak too uh and so I don't think it's really the weakness in Europe it's the expected strength in the United States that Traders believe will be in sharp contrast to what's going on in Europe because we've got Donald Trump uh and people assume we're going to have a stronger economy we're going to have faster GDP growth maybe he's going to shrink the deficits we're going to have a stronger Dollar in fact people think uh that tariffs are going to lead to a stronger dollar I just agree but that's what the markets uh perceive so you're getting this strong dollar but I think the markets are also overlooking a a big factor because the currency markets I think were still trading before Trump won Under uh the false narrative that we had a strong US economy that we had the strong labor market and that was part of what was underpinning uh this dollar because there was a perception that the US economy was in better shape uh than the rest of the world and so the FED would not cut as aggressively as maybe the ECB or the bank of England or other central banks but that was a false narrative the fact that Donald Trump was elected in and of itself strongly suggests that that was a false narrative because if the economy was as good as the markets believed Trump wouldn't have won they would have elected kamla Harris the fact that they voted for Trump is an indication that the voters were not happy the number one issue in the campaign was the economy and because Trump won that means the economy was bad if the economy was good Trump would have lost but it's not just that they're already starting the downward revisions and nobody noticed following Donald Trump's election the US dollar has risen moderately echoing the price action after after the 2016 election this increase is largely driven by expectations of fiscal easing and stronger economic growth under the new Administration with further potential for the Dollar's appreciation given that interest rate differentials have only slightly moved compared to 2016 a second more significant phase of dollar strength is anticipated if the US imposes tariffs on China reminiscent of the 2018 trade tensions when China allowed the UN to depreciate to offset the impact on its competitiveness this could trigger a broader weakening of Emerging Market currencies tightening Global Financial conditions and potentially driving down commodity prices while some argue that a weaker dollar could help address the US trade deficit by improving export competitiveness Economist Peter Schiff warns that such a strategy May backfire He suggests the current Administration might prefer a weaker dollar to reduce trade imbalances still he cautions that it could lead to higher import costs negatively affecting us consumers and businesses ryant on foreign Goods additionally while boosting competitiveness policies like tariffs may not resolve the underlying issues causing the trade deficit especially given the United States heavy Reliance on Imports and limited domestic Alternatives I know that uh Scott Besson has reiterated his belief that the US dollar should stay as the reserve Curr of course he's not going to say the opposite I mean it it'd be ridiculous to say to say the opposite but I think the markets are probably going to take that to mean oh well I guess we're gonna have the strong dollar policy you know a return to the strong dollar policy but we never really had a strong dollar policy remember you know it was really rolled out I think under was it Clinton where we first had the strong dollar policy I mean it was a long time ago yeah maybe it was Bob Rubin but the strong dollar policy was basically repeating the Mantra that a strong dollar is in the National interest so every time the treasury secretary spoke about the dollar or he was asked about the dollar the response would be a strong dollar is in the National interest and that was the strong dollar policy I mean that was basically the extent of the policy uh but for some reason it worked right even though we didn't actually do anything supposedly we had a strong dollar because of this policy I used to joke about I think I I I I think I wrote something about it in my first book I think I remember saying you know talking to a student uh and you know he he cuts classes he he smokes pot you know he doesn't study uh but he tells his his his teacher he has a you know a a straight a policy right and so like I should get A's because I got a I got a policy that says I get A's but you don't you know you don't you don't follow through with it in your study habits well you the whole time we had a strong dollar policy everything we were doing was undermine the dollar we were running big trade deficits a big budget deficits uh you know so we weren't pursuing policies that were consistent with a strong dollar just like if somebody cuts class and doesn't study they're not you know their study habits don't jive with their straight a policy but somehow they would just expect to get A's anyway because that was their policy so we were just expecting to have a strong dollar even though our policies uh would would would result in a weak dollar uh so even if we go back to the strong dollar policy there's really no policy go back to other than just uh you know speaking uh about it right you about about the strong dollar but I think that Trump and bessent actually want a weak dollar they they want the dollar to stay as the reserve currency just at a lower exchange rate because they believe that a lower dollar would make the us more competitive in international trade that that one of the reasons that we have these big trade deficits is because the dollar is over valued and that a lower dollar will help our Global competitiveness now the problem is you know we've had a low lower Dollar in the past and it didn't help in fact I think that a weaker dollar is actually going to backfire because it will make our Imports more expensive but we'll keep importing them because we don't produce an alternative that's also going to be the problem with tariffs and uh you know bessent is in favor of tariffs I mean obviously that's probably a prerequisite uh although I think his approach may be a bit better than Trump's I I've read some stuff where he's he thinks we should they should be broad-based and not just targeted uh to any one country and that maybe they should be introduced more slowly over time so that the markets could get used to them and and prepare for them so that that would be a a better approach of course it'll raise less revenue for the government uh than the higher tariffs would uh and therefore the deficits will be bigger because we're still going to get all of these all of these spending all these tax cuts rather uh that that are being advocated which is going to make um besson's job that much harder the price of gold is likely to trade around the $3,000 Mark for several months as this level represents a significant psychological resistance for many investors this round number often serves as a key Target influencing both Traders and institutional players however a weaker US dollar could further impact the gold market historically when the dollar weakens investors turn to gold as a hedge against currency depreciation boosting demand and supporting higher prices if the dollar weakens Gold's appeal as a safe haven asset may increase pushing the price beyond the $3,000 level in such a scenario the next key resistance Point could be $3,113 driven by both technical factors and continued demand as central banks ramp up gold purchases and geopolitical uncertainties persist the price of gold could rise even further please share your thoughts on Peter' for
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