저자: DanIves · 외국인
요약 보기
AI 수요 확대가 이제 시작 단계라며 기술주 연말까지 12~15% 추가 상승 전망. 클라우드(AWS·구글·MS) 성장과 애플 실적을 근거로 제시. 나스닥 30,000 목표(12~18개월), 엔비디아 2027년 6조 달러 시총 전망. 반면 전력 부족과 지역사회의 데이터센터 반대가 AI 랠리의 주요 리스크로 지목됨. 유가는 6~8월 이후에야 성장 타격 우려, 장기적으로 80~90달러 전망.
다듬은 글
We couldn't let the biggest week for tech earnings pass without checking in with one of the biggest bulls on Wall Street. Dan Ives joins us now. He's managing director and senior equity research analyst at Wedbush Securities. Dan, always great to have you on. Always great to be here. So, Dan, you said this quarter was a prove-it moment for AI.
What specifically did it prove to you? It proved that demandization is just starting in terms of the AI revolution. I mean, if you look at the cloud growth numbers, Amazon, Google, Microsoft, I think that was as robust as we've ever seen relative to expectations. I I and I think when you look especially at Microsoft, that shows from the enterprise in terms of what adoption looks like.
And then cherry on top of the sundae is Apple, where, you know, New York City cab driver was bearish on Apple. And now look at that quarter. Look at the growth next quarter. So, I think when you put all together, bulls go into the weekend very happy. The bears, they'll be in hibernation mode in their caves looking for some bad news over the weekend.
If it's early innings for the AI trade, what is it for the stocks though? Because obviously stocks are forward-looking. Are we earlier or are we later than that? I look, I mean, it's year three of an eight to 10-year buildout in terms of AI revolution. So, I get that we're going through some bifurcation in terms of some of the stocks, but the reality is that we believe tech stocks are up another 12, 15% rest of the year.
And I think you have a lot of money coming off the sidelines that's going to start to go to derivatives, second, third, fourth derivatives. That's why you see names like an Intel doing what it's doing or a Cisco doing what it's doing. I think you're going to continue to see this play out over the coming months.
But to your point, there has been this bifurcation with even within the Mag Seven, we have Tesla, Microsoft, Meta actually all lower year-to-date. So, if the AI trade just got reconfirmed, where does new money go today? Yeah, but to that point, you also need to see monetization. Like, if you look at Tesla, they're just building out their physical AI strategies when it comes to autonomous robotics and obviously cyber cab.
You look at Apple, just starting the AI strategy in terms of, you know, go at WWDC and obviously I think that's going to be a golden era for them. But you want to put money in Google, in Microsoft. I believe Meta is way oversold here. And of course Nvidia, this is all just leading up to what's going to be just a robust quarter for Nvidia and I continue to think that's a $6 trillion market cap 2027.
Outside of the Mag Seven, what stocks should definitely be in an everyday investor's portfolio at this point? Well, I think it's Look, it's derivatives of chips, right? I mean, we talk about from from AMD to Micron, from a software perspective, you look at Palantir, Snowflake, Salesforce. I think ServiceNow way oversold in terms of what we saw last week.
But then it's about the derivatives, right? In terms of energy, the GE Vernovas, the Irons. I think you're just starting to see what to me are going to be the sort of second, third, fourth derivatives of the AI revolution playing out. Where could investors get hurt chasing this though? I think investors could get hurt trying to understand where there's fraud.
Just because a company says that they're doing AI doesn't mean that they're an AI company, right? So, I think it's it's separating out what the demand, what the monetization looks like, and who are going to be the winners, especially when it comes to infrastructure software. Look, and I think and we have our our eyes power 30 uh you know, research that we put out.
To me, it's about derivatives that are going to continue to play out across software, across infrastructure, across power. But that's also why I believe like you like me and you've talked about this about Nasdaq 25,000. We're going to be to my Nasdaq 30,000 in the next 12 to 18 months. When you were last on in March though, when oil was in the '80s, you said if this war goes into late April, May, into the summer, it could start to dent some growth.
So, now with oil above 100, is that risk starting to show up? I mean, it certainly doesn't look it as I see the S&P 500, uh you know, it it it well over now 7,200 right now. But when does that risk start showing up? Have you moved your timeline out? Well, count for me it was being in Asia for 2 weeks.
I mean, we didn't see any really major supply issues. And I actually think it extends out further. I mean, you'd have to see this go into June, July to to really make a dent from a supply perspective. And I also think investors are kind of gaming out being like a ceasefire ultimately will lead to some resolution.
The long curve when it comes to oil is still you know, I think called sub 80, sub 90 dollars. And then it just you look at the tech, the AI revolution, the spending you cannot deny. And I think that's the one thing from this week is about the monetization of validation of the thesis. What's the one thing that could break the AI trade over the next 6 to 12 months?
The power shortage. It's it's that local communities root down data centers. They don't want to see their electricity bills go up. There's a lot of, you know, whether it's a real estate worries or you know, things on the local side. I think those are probably some of the biggest risks. Because right now when it comes to AI, you need data centers.
You know, so that's why a lot of times we always talk when we were in DC and maybe politicians that we'd meet with and they'll say, "Well, we don't want a data center in our state or in our municipality." The reality is the data centers are the hearts and lungs of the AI revolution. Okay. All right.
What name looks closest to fully valued right now, Dan? Look, I think some would say Intel you know, in terms of that, but look, I still believe it's like when you swim at second, third derivative, that's one. I don't think you could say it's full now. It's you got to see if they're able to continue to execute.
How they ultimately would I believe become a bigger player in the short of second, third derivative trades on chips. I mean, look, you know, in terms of Musk and TerraFab and obviously what have been Intel, so I look, it just speaks to my view. You can't just look at these stocks and say they're expensive.
You can't just say Sandisk is expensive because of historical, cuz you're in a memory super cycle. So, if a retail investor is buying an AI stock today, are they early, are they late, or are they right on time? I'd say it's third inning two out in terms of the game. Okay. But obviously it depends where, because look, software is still you know, I think obviously software is still been pretty way oversold relative to what we've seen.
So, I think software's going to be a huge derivative trade that plays out. Okay, before we get to this or that, Dan, we have some audience questions and we're going to have to do those rapid-fire as well because I want to make sure we hit all of them. So, let's do these a total side note, too. Us coordinating Us coordinating I think is very is very is very interesting.
I knew I had to wear color, but uh but we we did hit the nail on the head there. Dan, does Alphabet have more room to run? How much? More room to run? I mean, I think it could have 30, 40% upside from here as the cloud and the advertising strategy plays out, Gemini. We're not We are not done with this.
I mean, I think we're we're we're still early days. Single best way to play AI, give me one name. Godfather Bay and video. Who has the best AI strategy? Right now, it's Google relative to what they've done on the consumer side, on Gemini, CapEx. I think they're firing on all cylinders. Okay, we have another question saying, "Give me three undervalued mid-cap tech stocks." I'd say Pegasystems, which I view as actually a derivative sort of AI name.
I think on security, I look at a name like Fortinet is one that kind of sticks out a bit. And then, you know, I Look, I continue to think in cybersecurity, I think some of these names have been oversold like names like Tenable, Veronis would be examples. Is Palantir still a buy here? It's It's In my opinion, going to a trillion dollars next two or three or five.
Look, Palantir is in software as to what Nvidia is to chips as to what Jalen Brunson is to the Knicks. There's a question about Tesla. When do investors see returns? I think by the summer into the fall is when you start to see this turn as robotaxis scale. It's my view I I think I think SpaceX is the IPO is going to be a positive event for Tesla ultimately.
And the physical AI strategy plays out going to the rest of this year and 2027. Okay, and then a rapid-fire way to answer, how do you navigate volatility in software stocks? Leaders eat, right? So, you have to understand who the winners are and what's oversold. ServiceNow oversold. Salesforce oversold.
I think Workday you could argue oversold. So, I think you have to navigate and it's my view too, Oracle that's potential double next 12 to 18 months. And final audience question, SoundHound AI, is it a sleeper stock or is it hype? No, I I it's They It's a real strategy. They just have to execute. It's not hype, but they have to execute on the strategy.
Would you be a buyer here? Oh, look, we're that that's a longer-term buy, and we're still very positive on it. They just need to navigate and execute and organically execute. Okay. All right, so that's the the end of the audience questions. Time for my rapid-fire this or that questions. You ready, Dan?
Yeah, let's go. Here we go. One word for big tech earning season. bullish Meta or Microsoft? Microsoft Who gets the cloud crown, Microsoft or Google? Oh, Google. Nvidia here, buy more or take profits? buy more Best Mag 7 name to own after earnings? Google Most undervalued Mag 7 name today? Microsoft.
That sell-off is almost a garage sale sell-off. Most overhyped AI stock right now? I don't see I'm going to have to take like an NA. I don't see a massively overhyped AI stock. Okay, we'll let you have one pass. Micron or Intel? Micron Oracle or IBM? Oracle, but still like IBM. Salesforce or ServiceNow?
I think Salesforce here, but still like ServiceNow. Again, that's Which which your kid do you love that? A software name better than Salesforce? I don't see. One mid-cap AI name nobody's talking about. Pegasystems. Dell or Lam Research? Dell. When there's a pullback, one must-buy dip for retail investors.
Look, I mean, to me it's really it's it's cloud names at the Microsoft. Okay, so there's an opportunity here. If you can only invest in one IPO, SpaceX, Anthropic, or OpenAI? Look, I think they're all going to be super successful, but obviously SpaceX is the one that I think it's going to be a category defining.
And finally, biggest AI winner over the next 12 months. I believe it's Palantir. All right, we'll leave it there, Dan Ives. I want you to come back soon because we didn't get to talk about Apple's new CEO. We didn't get to talk about a possible SpaceX Tesla combo, so we need to to get back to that, but always a pleasure.
Thank you so much. Thank you so much. If you enjoyed this Street Talk, check out our full interview with Bill Ackman, where he walks through his new fund and why he's putting money to work at all-time highs.
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