저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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한 줄 결론: 연준은 테이퍼링을 해도 인플레이션을 잡을 수 없으며, 인플레이션은 일시적이 아니고 연준은 대응하지 않을 것이라는 주장. 연준의 테이퍼링은 긴축이 아니라 자산매입 확대 속도를 늦추는 것일 뿐이며, 통화량은 여전히 늘어난다고 주장. 인플레이션이 실제로 문제라면 연준은 즉시 행동했어야 하나 예고 후 천천히 가는 방식은 문제 해결 의지가 없음을 보여준다고 평가. 연준은 금리 인상을 하지 않으려 하면서도 인상 가능성을 언급해 시장에 긴축 효과를 주려 한다는 분석. 연준 발언을 시장이 진짜로 받아들여 민간 금융 여건이 이미 긴축되고 있다고 주장. IMF 수석이코노미스트가 인플레이션이 일시적이 아니면 연준이 예상보다 빨리 금리를 올려 신흥국과 글로벌 경제에 타격을 준다고 경고한 내용을 인용. 시장은 이제 더 빠르고 높은 금리를 반영하며 그 결과 경기 둔화 우려로 위험자산 회피가 나타나고 경기민감주가 압박받는다고 설명. 유가 관련해서는 최근 7년 고점 근처에서 되돌림이 있었으나 상승 추세는 유효하고 강세장도 끝나지 않았다고 봄. 결론적으로 연준은 경제를 붕괴시키지 않고는 인플레이션을 잡을 수 없으며, 쓴 약을 피하려 해 인플레이션은 더 악화되고 연준은 앞으로도 싸우지 않을 것이라고 주장.
다듬은 글
tapering is not shrinking the money supply tapering is expanding the money supply at a slower rate than you were expanding it before they're not talking about stopping the debt monetization going cold turkey and they're certainly not talking about shrinking the money supply they're simply talking about inflating the money supply at a somewhat lower pace than they're inflating it right now but what this should really reveal to anybody who's got a brain is that they ain't gonna taper because if they were serious about having to fight inflation and if inflation all of a sudden picked up they would not wait to warn the markets that they're going to taper in the future because inflation might get worse between the warning and the time they actually start to do something about it inflation is not transitory or something else is happening and now it merits action you have to act you just can't delay the action because you want to warn the markets about what you're going to do you need to do it and in fact they wouldn't just be talking about tapering they would be talking about ending the qe program because if all you're willing to do is taper it that's not going to be enough to actually deal with an inflation problem because you're still adding to the problem when you're expanding the balance sheet even if you're adding to the problem more slowly you are still fueling the fire even if you're throwing on less fuel you're still giving the fire more fuel and it's going to get bigger so they're not even talking about what would actually be required to the extent that inflation was too high because i think they recognized that there's no way the markets could handle something like that so they're trying to give the markets a little bit of tightening but not too much to really scare them and in fact i think that is why they even might have established this whole idea that we're not even thinking about thinking about thinking about raising rates so they can start thinking about it and have the markets interpret that as some kind of tightening without actually raising rates because the one thing the fed doesn't want to do is have rates go up but it can't admit that it's never going to raise them so it's trying to have its cake and eat it too by tightening without actually tightening and they do that by just talking about tightening but not actually tightening but the problem for the fed is when they talk about tightening the markets think they're serious and so the markets start tightening for the fed rates start rising in the private sector which we're already seeing monetary conditions tighten because the markets still believe the fed right it's like the fed is this boy that cries wolf and every time the fed cries wolf the villagers come running because they actually expect the wolf they still don't realize that it doesn't matter how many times the fed cries wolf there's never going to be a wolf so they can talk about they can think about they can do whatever they want about tapering and about raising rates but they really can't do it and of course the greater problem is and what people don't seem to recognize is the longer the fed waits to taper the harder it actually is to taper the longer they wait to raise rates the more difficult it is to do it so if they can't do those things now how are they going to do them in the future when it's even harder because the longer they wait the more debt we have the more debt we have the more vulnerable we are when rates go up right the more debt the government has the bigger the national debt the larger the fed's balance sheet the more the treasury becomes dependent on the fed to finance that debt so if they can't taper now how the hell are they going to do in the future they can't raise rates now how they can do in the future they can't in fact what's actually happening in the markets is the markets are now bracing for the wrong impact they don't understand what's going to happen because just like the imf chief economist is concerned she said that because inflation is going to surprise the fed by being higher than they thought or by not being transitory she is warning that this could have a negative impact on the global economy because the fed is then going to be raising interest rates much sooner than the markets expect and she talked about how this would be bad particularly for emerging markets because it's going to cause the dollar to go up it's going to put pressure on commodities it's going to hurt the emerging markets and so the recovery that we're seeing around the world is actually in jeopardy now because the fed is going to be forced to admit it was wrong about inflation and start fighting it by raising rates and that is what the markets are now pricing in they're pricing in higher rates sooner which is going to hurt the economy reduce growth which is why people are taking risk off which is why stocks are under pressure particularly the cyclical stocks we're even seeing oil stocks have been coming down we did get a pretty big reversal the other day after we took out that high and almost made a seven year high in the price of oil we've got some selling that has continued but oil stocks really were selling off even before uh the price of oil reversed again i don't think this is a change in the underlying trend for oil i think oil prices are still moving higher they're going to make new highs they have not finished this bull market is a long way from ending but one of the reasons that these stocks are coming down in the sector is because people think the economy is going to be weaker as a result of the fed having to fight inflation that it believed was transitory but now that it happens to not be transitory now the fed has to start tightening well the fact of the matter is i don't even think the fed ever believed inflation was transitory i'm going to give them the benefit of the doubt that they're not that dumb i think that they knew they had an inflation problem but the bigger problem is that they can't do anything about it and they're never going to admit that so the easiest way to rationalize their policy of not caring about inflation and ignoring it was to pretend that it is transitory so i don't think the fed is going to be surprised when it turns out that it's not transitory i think they already know that and i think the reality is if the fed actually had the ability or the willingness to fight inflation which is what the markets are now bracing for which is what the imf is now expecting if the fed actually was willing to do what it took to fight inflation they would already be doing it they would be fighting that battle right now before it gets even harder because again the longer they wait to start the fight the harder it is to win because they let inflation get worse they let the genie further out of the bottle the harder it's going to be to get ahead of the curve which is what they need to do to put that genie back in the bottle so what the markets don't understand and i don't know when they're going to figure it out i mean maybe gold going up today although it's not way up but maybe it's starting to dawn on some people it's not that inflation is going to turn out to be not transitory and therefore the fed is going to fight it it's that inflation is not transitory and the fed is not going to fight it and because the fed is not going to fight the non-transitory inflation it's actually going to end up getting much worse than people think and the reason that they're not going to fight inflation in the future is the same reason they're not fighting it now because they can't do it without collapsing the economy they can't do it without crashing the stock market crashing the housing market and forcing the u.s government to dramatically cut spending or raise taxes on the middle class two things that it is completely reluctant to do so since the federal reserve wants no part of any bitter tasting medicine even if ultimately it cures what ails us they're not going to fight inflation in the future they're not going to fight inflation now they're never going to fight inflation
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