저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
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결론: 차마스 팔리하피티야는 비트코인이 금을 대체하는 중이라고 보며, 인플레이션 대응으로 고성장주·현금창출 자산·비상관 자산(비트코인, 솔라나 등 DeFi)을 보유하겠다는 입장이다. 비트코인·암호화폐 관련 주장 비트코인은 금을 effectively 대체하고 있으며 시가총액은 계속 커질 것이라고 주장했다. 스마트 컨트랙트, 더 나은 저축·보험·신용평가 등 비트코인이 약속한 해법의 초기 버전이 이더리움·솔라나 기반 DeFi에서 나타나고 있다고 봤다. 그는 2013년 비트코인을 대량 매수했고(평균 단가 약 80달러), 현재 보유분 대부분은 회사에 맡겨 운용 중이라고 설명했다. 2013년 이후 추가 매수는 없었다고 밝혔다. 인플레이션 대응 포트폴리오 전략 중기 인플레이션을 우려하며 세 가지를 보유하겠다고 밝혔다: 연 50% 이상 성장하는 초고성장 기업, 현금창출력이 높은 자산(예: 광산주), 비상관 자산(비트코인, 솔라나, DeFi 프로토콜). 에너지·분산형 전력 사업 에너지 시장에 대격변이 올 것이며 전력회사들이 압박받고 있다고 진단했다. 개인이 직접 전력을 생산하는 분산형 에너지 유틸리티가 향후 수년 내 미국 최대 규모가 될 것이라고 주장하며, 이 사업에 집중하고 있다고 말했다. 테슬라 관련해 최근 1년 사이 지분을 상당 부분 매도했다고 밝혔으며, 테슬라가 해내지 못하는 부분을 자신이 메울 것이라는 취지로 말했다. 비트코인 시장 구조·리스크 현재 비트코인은 여전히 투기적 상품이어서 법정화폐를 대체하기 어렵다고 평가했다. 달러보다 훨씬 변동성이 크기 때문이다. 투기꾼과 단기 트레이더가 빠지고 장기 보유자 관심이 남아야 시장이 성숙한다는 입장이다. 인플레이션을 통한 부채 구조 문제 해결 경로(2안)가 유력해지면 비트코인이 안전자산 도피처로 부상할 수 있다고 봤다. 향후 10년에 걸쳐 진행될 궤적이며, 비트코인은 0 또는 수백만 달러 중 하나인 이분법적 투자라고 표현했다. 비트코인이 신뢰 기반의 준(準)금본위 지수 역할을 할 것이라고 주장했다.
다듬은 글
very hard for me sitting here to give you a price prediction but i can pretty confidently say that bitcoin i think has effectively replaced gold and it will continue to do so and so that market cap is just going to grow and then for the first time i think we're seeing the initial versions of the solution that we thought bitcoin was supposed to be smart contracts and you know better savings accounts better insurance better credit scoring and that's happening through this defy stuff that's being built on ethereum and solana these are the terms that you know people are i read recently where you said you're building a quote sizable portfolio of nfts let me talk about bubbles i mean the air sort of came out as backs it came out of nfts and what are you you're you have an interesting life i'm not ready to comment on my crypto holdings outside of bitcoin well you but you said you were building i mean i read this you said you were building other than that i am not writing digital art and all that i'm not ready to comment but but do you think are are you looking at more what i would call alternative assets as places to best deliver alpha let me see okay so i'll ask it that way that's a fabulous question um i'm very concerned about medium term inflation and so in an inflationary environment in my very simplistic view of the world i want to own three things hyper growth because hyper growth can always outrun inflation think of that as like companies that are growing 50 plus percent a year it's incredible growth right then i want to own cash generative assets think of that it's like you know a great example is like a mining stock i know that sounds crazy but it's pretty incredible and then i want to own non-correlated assets bitcoin solana dso a lot of the d5 protocols because it's a great counter-intuitive hedge against all of this stuff there is a huge opportunity to build the distributed energy utility you know i've mentioned this to you before but i think there's going to be a cataclysm in the energy markets i think the utilities are under duress they're in a very very difficult spot and the laws don't understand what will happen when individuals like you and i can generate our own power and so you know again closing the circle on virgin you know when i sold a couple hundred million dollars it was in large part to fund this thing which is quickly becoming over the next few years in my opinion will be the largest distributed energy utility in america so i'm very proud of the work that i'm doing over here and hopefully you know i'll pick up a little bit of slack that tesla is not going to be able to you know operationalize as they build an incredible ev business and so both things i think will happen i think it'll manifest in a different company you still have a sizable stock position in tesla no you sold it yeah when uh over the last few years we've sort of you know not last year's like really in the last year or so particularly you know the prices allowed me to again surprised to hear you say that after what you just said about the company well i i don't have an infinite pool of capital you know i'm myself i don't raise funds i can't go to other people um and so when i have these ideas the money has to come from some place the only other solution would be to for me to get totally levered up and i'm just not comfortable with that risk and so you know i'm a meager guy with meager means yeah right i think bitcoin needed a moment like this um for it to be relevant um in 2003 oh sorry 2013 um i bought a lot and at one point i think i had almost five percent of all the bitcoins uh my basis is about 80 bucks a coin um i've never bought more um most of my bitcoin now sit with a company um and you know they use it for trading purposes they use it to run a bunch of other strategies and uh i did that mostly for safety and security and peace of mind i didn't want to deal with it um i wanted to own equity in a business um that equity can be hedged that equity can be tax structured advantageously and then it allows them to run a big business which generates cash and i can get a cash and you know dividend stream um so i have not bought since i uh initially uh basically wrote that article for bloomberg in 2013.
um my thoughts are the following right now i think what you're seeing is that it's still a speculative instrument and it's too speculative for it to be reliable um so if you're going to make the case that you know it should replace fiat currency well one thing you have to look at is the volatility of the us dollar and you can't replace it with something that's nine sigma more volatile it doesn't work um and the reason it doesn't work is that it's two again going back to what markets are important the only market that's even more important than the debt markets or the currency markets and what you see is enormous amounts of liquidity where five percent move so 500 basis point moves are newsworthy well those 500 basis point moves in the absence of some massive exogenous event take years to play up and in that there is value because it allows more market participants to be active in that market so that they can use it as a a critical pillar of how they run their business but now all of a sudden if you have 2 000 basis point moves a half hour you can't effectively use it and so what it does is it pushes it into this ghetto of day traders and and speculators and right now that's where we are we're in that ghetto and uh you need to get out and the way that it gets out is that you need to flush the speculators and day traders out and you need to have still some basis of interest from long-term holders and then you need to have it slowly look like the traditional infrastructure could really implode so again i go back to we are driving slowly but we are driving towards a top of a cliff and then we are going to drive much much faster down that cliff or down that hill and at the end of it is a is a huge brick wall the way we avoid it is by pivoting to a resilient economy where we introduced inefficiency and cost and inflate our way out of it or debasement the path dependence for bitcoin is if it looks like path 2 is likely it will really emerge um as a flight to safety and over the next 10 years where this trajectory is going to take shape and it is a 10-year trajectory you'll have a lot of time to vector into it to protect yourself and to hedge yourself and i've always thought of bitcoin as a very binary investment whether it goes from 80 to eight thousand to six thousand to three thousand to thirteen thousand it just it doesn't matter this is either zero or it's millions um because what it will do is it will create a quasi gold standard it'll create an index except instead of having to own gold where gold is owned by central banks it is an instrument that has value that's determined by and between its participants and it's owned by everybody
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