저자: BillMillerIV · 외국인
요약 보기
비트코인은 가격이 오르고 채택이 넓어질수록 보유 확산으로 위험이 줄어들며, 기관 투자자 유입과 2024년 현물 비트코인 ETF 승인을 계기로 강세장이 올 것이라는 주장이다. 비트코인의 가치 설명 문제: 비트코인은 '세계에서 가장 빠르게 성장하는 통화 결제 네트워크'로 설명되어야 하며, 공급이 제한된 자산(해안 부동산, 희귀 예술품, 골동품 등)이 결국 달러 대신 비트코인으로 가격이 매겨질 것이라는 견해다. 비트코인의 핵심 혁신: 제3자가 규칙을 정하지 않고 가치를 저장할 수 있다는 점이며, 이 때문에 정치권이 비트코인을 반대한다는 주장이다. 규제 리스크: 미국 내 규제 위협은 실재하지만 단기간에 그칠 것이며, 엘살바도르·아르헨티나·일본·독일 등 전 세계 추세는 긍정적이라고 봤다. 현물 ETF 전망: ETF 승인 후 기관 수용이 완성되면 강력한 장기 순풍이 된다. 단기적으로는 ETF로 현물을 대체 매수하는 수급 변화로 가격이 하락할 가능성도 언급했다. 수급 구조: 기존 강한 보유층과 투기 수요에 더해 지갑 수 증가로 채택이 늘고 있으며, 4년마다 반감기라는 촉매가 있다. 공급이 절반으로 줄면 가격은 오를 수밖에 없다는 논리다. SEC 동향: 블랙록 등 현물 ETF 신청사와 회의가 있었으며, 여러 개의 현물 비트코인 ETF 승인이 임박했다는 신호로 해석했다. 출연자 및 영상 말미 홍보: 후반부에 채널 수익 지분 참여 및 Discord 유료 커뮤니티 가입을 권유하는 광고 성격의 내용이 포함되어 있다.
다듬은 글
I think Bitcoin becomes less risky as it goes up in price, just because it means there's increasing ownership and adoption. The broader that adoption is—not only in the US but globally—the less likely it is to go to zero. It's on everyone's radar screen, people care about it, they're paying attention, and they want to own it. So the broader the adoption, the less risky it is.
The way I think about it: assets that have limited supply will eventually be priced in Bitcoin. Whether that's waterfront estates, rare paintings, artifacts, or capital goods—everything else you can deal with in a local government's depreciating currency or medium of exchange.
As we approach what promises to be a very eventful month and year for Bitcoin and the entire digital asset space, prominent digital asset enthusiasts and veteran investors from all walks of life have been discussing their outlook and expectations. Miller Value Partners portfolio manager Bill Miller IV recently joined popular podcaster Anthony Pompliano for an insightful discussion about his outlook on Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies as the industry prepares for a major bull market in 2024.
According to Miller, this bull market and the almost 100% certain influx of institutional investors marks a new beginning for the leading digital asset. Miller envisions a time when Bitcoin is not just the leading crypto asset or a popular treasury asset among institutional investors, but a leading global asset against which scarce assets will be measured. Choice beachfront properties, age-old artifacts, rare paintings, and other rare collectibles will be priced in Bitcoin rather than in rapidly deflating fiat currencies like the US dollar.
While this may seem a little far-fetched today, it is not completely unimaginable when you consider that Bitcoin is not just the world's most scarce asset, but probably the only asset specifically created with all the right qualities to replace the global monetary system. According to Miller, this might not happen for another decade or two, but the seeds for that and much more are being sown now and will begin to germinate rather rapidly after the US Securities and Exchange Commission approves a spot Bitcoin ETF in January.
I remember when we were in Miami, one of the things we talked about was how Bitcoin has a description problem, which I think is a really important idea. A lot of times people ask us what we're investing in, and we say we like this stock or that stock. We also own a ton of Bitcoin, and the response is generally, "Oh, okay, I don't get that." But if instead of naming a stock we liked, we said, "I'm investing in the world's fastest-growing monetary payments and technology network," people would find that pretty interesting. It's very liquid and very public—you can see the status of the entire network 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, 365 days a year. There has never been a currency or monetary payments system in the history of the world where you can say that.
Maybe everyone in America doesn't care because the dollar is relatively stable versus other governments, but I care. I'm paying attention to what's going on with the currency supply. People who understand how the system works are paying attention to it too. The information around Bitcoin is unprecedented in terms of what you own and what's going on with it, and I think that's immensely valuable. It has done a lot better than just being a store of value over the past decade—it's the best-performing asset class. There are a ton of people working on it on an open-source basis, which is amazing too. It's a global phenomenon.
From a medium-of-exchange perspective, the Lightning Network has immense potential when you look at transaction throughput relative to Visa, Mastercard, and other alternatives. That could eventually supplant them and take over as a medium of exchange.
What people don't necessarily think through is the context around the innovation. Why is Bitcoin so important? Why are you and I obsessed with it? Only a handful of people will articulate this, but the trustless ledger system Satoshi invented has one real implication: you no longer need a third party to tell you what the rules and laws are in order to do things. That's what fiat means—it's because I say so. Fiat money existed, once upon a time, to protect against big violent threats and clashes between tribes. We're in a new age now. There's been no monetary technology innovation in centuries until now, and it's a real breakthrough that you can store value independent of what someone else says or does to the yardstick you own.
That's the real innovation of Bitcoin, and it's why Senator Warren is so unhappy about it. It's why lifetime politicians who want big-government control are so upset. At the end of the day, if their colleagues can't change the yardstick and the rules all the time, it's an immutable store of value over time. The real benefit is that people can't take from you what you have.
During the discussion, Miller also gave his views on some perceived external threats to the smooth development of Bitcoin over the next few years. Even a simple look at Bitcoin's fundamentals reveals the immense strength of the network. As Miller aptly described it, Bitcoin is the world's fastest-growing monetary payments and technology network, with complete transparency and, most importantly, not under the control of any CEO or founder.
But strong fundamentals cannot exist in a vacuum. This is why crypto advocates continue to fight the oppressive regulatory environment, which is currently one of the biggest threats to the industry's continued existence in the United States. According to Miller, the regulatory threat is real but will be very short-lived. Even in the US, people who are vocally against the industry's growth and development are not as many as those who favor it or are currently indifferent.
Miller said that apart from politicians nervous about their jobs, he doesn't see a huge constituency that wants to shut this thing down over the longer term. The government has sold tens of billions of dollars of Bitcoin at current market values to its citizens, so it can't turn around and say it's illegal. Looking more broadly around the world, the trend is positive unless you live in a dictatorship—El Salvador, Argentina with a pro-Bitcoin president, Japan talking about lower regulation, and Germany. The US generally gets most things right, and you hope the system understands that technological innovation should not be stifled.
On ETFs, Miller says that once an ETF is approved and everyone is doing it, the career-risk fear of losing your job for holding Bitcoin goes away. That is institutional acceptance, and I think it's baked into the cake. The question for the short term is whether ETF approval pushes Bitcoin up on day one, or whether supply and demand could shift the other way as people sell coins to buy the ETF. In the long run, ETF acceptance is a massive tailwind. There's a strong base of people who understand the technology and aren't selling, plus speculators and growing adoption as measured by wallet numbers. When the marginal supply gets cut in half, the price goes up—unless demand changes or the bottom falls out. Markets are not perfectly efficient, and there is a catalyst for Bitcoin every four years.
Meanwhile, reports say the SEC actively held meetings with spot Bitcoin ETF applicants this week, including BlackRock and several others. Fox Business senior correspondent Charles Gasparino described it as a rare joint conference call. Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas called it another definite sign that the SEC is about to approve not one but several spot Bitcoin ETFs. The meeting was reportedly for the SEC to reiterate that applicants must agree to the commission's earlier stipulations, such as using a cash creation model, or wait for approval at a later date.
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