Ray Dalio Says Bridgewater Is Long Equity Markets

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Bridgewater는 현재 주식시장에 롱(매수) 포지션을 유지하고 있으며, 하락장을 예측하지 않는다고 밝힘. 2008~2017년은 금리 인하·양적완화로 실질금리가 극히 낮았던 시기였고, 2017년부터는 전 세계적으로 금리 인상과 양적완화 축소로 전환되는 새로운 국면에 진입했다고 진단. 현재 10년물 실질금리는 약 0.5%, 10년 기대인플레이션(브레이크이븐)은 약 1.8%로 매우 낮은 수준이며, 사이클 후반부 긴축 국면에서는 리스크가 점차 커진다고 경고. 채권시장에는 상당한 리스크가 있다고 봄. 연준의 대차대조표 축소 속도(GDP 대비 약 2.5%)는 지속되기 어려울 수 있고, 재정적자 확대(GDP 대비 약 1.5%p 추가 가능)와 맞물리면 채권 공급 증가로 금리 상승 압력이 커질 수 있다고 전망. 연준 의장 인선과 관련해 원칙(principles)과 양적완화 정책의 방향이 통화정책에 큰 영향을 미친다고 언급. 다음 연준 의장에게는 긴축 속도와 대차대조표 축소 관리에 신중할 것을 주문. 전반적으로 주식은 보유(롱), 채권과 금리 환경에는 경계적 입장.

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01. are you predicting a bear market it seems like every Friday all the doom and the gloom comes out of higher interest rates lower stock prices can raid a leopa to predict negative eighteen percent in the equity markets no we've been long at coming market you know and without getting too much into our positions let's get let's get no I can tell you because we don't get into our position but anyway I'm saying no the answer to your question I mean eventually it comes along but we're in a different environment now here's and here's the essence okay and the David jump in your honor from from okay from 2008 until 2017 we were in a certain type of environment and that environment it was one in which there was the pushing of interest rates down to the point of creating negative interest rates and with the positive carry plot by doing quantitative easing to push money into the system 2017 is the transition of an ending of all of that all around the world and we are entering a new era in which there is going to be and there is the raising of interest rates and the reducing of quantitative easing that action that they took in that produced significantly bad real interest rates I mean real interest rates today ten-year on the tenure real interest rates are about a half a percent next to nothing next to nothing and the break-even inflation rate for ten years is about 1.8 percent so that's those numbers are very low because of let's call it repression in order to get the economy to do that we are now in a transition a whole different environment that's the equivalent of them during the late stage of the cycle and absolutely when there is a tightening tightening --zz become progressively more concerning because as you move along they are more and more difficult to get perfect so as we're progressing we are entering a period of greater risk and the nature of the market so when you look at the bond market right now there is risk in the bond market there's looks to me as a significant amount of risk in the bond market as that yeah so now let's go to the policies that a bond well let's bring in David go to the policy the good news is Ray Dalio is not in the shortlist at the Fed well on that note central bank's squarely in focus here we just heard from the ECB we're waiting to hear who the president gonna pick to lead the Fed let me ask you a two-part question how much does personality matter at the Federal Reserve I look at John Taylor and think maybe he's a ray Dalio kind of guy he's got rules or principles of his own that he's held throughout his his career and on that note what would you say to the next chair the Fed to what he or she needs to focus on when it comes to the health of the US economy ooh bunch of questions in there so personality again I think the real question is principles if you were to write them down and articulate them and then discuss them through history over a period of time I think that's a good thing they also have very different principles and so such as matters in terms of quantitative easing and also whether it's to tighten - to loose so I do think it possible it can matter a lot in terms of what the monetary policy is particularly the notion of about the quantitative easing and whether it's too tight or too easy it could matter a lot and then we have the pace at which from Fed policy since we're talking about it the pace at which there's an unwinding of the balance sheet you know I look at those numbers and I don't think they're going to be able to continue to that pace because it's equivalent of something like two and a half percent of GDP and if you have that happening at the same time as there's increased budget deficits we could have a budget deficit increase of another one-and-a-half percent of GDP that's a big number and the supply-demand of bonds I mean think about that okay there's going to be that amount of effective selling of credit by the Federal Reserve a big are you painting that with the tax reform proposed as Douglas holtz-eakin talks about we're going out to five six or seven percent of deficit to GDP where we will almost certainly have a significant move in in that direction so you could even see it in the market action in other words on days where it looks like they're making more progress in the bond markets more inclined sell-off days that they're making less progress the bond market because there's going to be probably a larger deficit and that means more selling of bonds at the same time as there's more selling a bonds by the Federal Reserve in terms of the balance you change now I think they'll be cautious in this but when you're talking this part of the cycle it's very delicate