Newest Updates from Tom Lee & Cathie Wood ! The "Bottom is In" Market Update! 🚀

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AI 혁명으로 SaaS 등 소프트웨어 성장 둔화, 팔란티어 미국 상업 매출 급성장 언급. 하이퍼스케일러 자본지출 급증(예: 아마존 약 900억→1800억 달러)과 데이터센터 투자 사이클 장기화 전망, GPU 수요가 칩 점유율 이동(엔비디아·AMD→브로드컴)으로 이어진다고 주장. 이더리움 급락 속에서도 V자 반등 역사와 네트워크 사용량 증가를 근거로 바닥 가능성 언급, 비트마인 보유 구조 강조. 트럼프 정책으로 경기·물가 안정 기대, 주택 정책 성패는 장기 금리 하락 여부에 달렸다고 봄.

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01. You can see the big loser we thought was going to be the application layer largely software as a service. Uh now if there's something wrong with this chart, you can see it is in our projection for software as a service going forward on the top there. Uh 20% plus. Uh it's not going to be anything like that.

02. In fact uh we do believe that software as a service is becoming a victim of this AI revolution. There will be uh consolidators uh and and software as a service providers who do survive this route. They will consolidate the market. uh but we we underestimated ourselves. We were saying that that SAS was going to lose share.

03. We didn't realize how much how soon and that gives you a sense of uh how quickly uh this revolution is happening. Uh 142% for Palanteer uh uh US commercial in one quarter. Uh we didn't expect that either. In fact, our kagger our compound annual rate of uh revenue growth assumption which we thought was enormous at the time for the next five years for Palanteer itself uh is 55%.

04. That could be wrong too. Maybe it's too low. Uh so here we are. Okay. Next uh what about all of these capital spending announcements uh from the hyperscalers especially this is unnerving uh the the the mag six uh or investors holding the mag six uh these investors many of them benchmark sensitive. What does that mean for people who who don't understand what that means?

05. Um the market since the tech and telecom bust and uh so that was the early 2000s and the uh 089 meltdown has become uh much more quantitatively driven uh which means uh that many portfolios are guided heavily by the indexes out there. Now to give you a sense of that um Amazon and Nvidia in uh the NASDAQ 100 uh are in the 3 to 4% range uh in terms of the holdings and uh what benchmark sensitivity means is uh portfolio managers will say okay uh I am betting against let's just say Nvidia for argument sake uh Nvidia I think is at a 3.4% position in uh the NASDAQ 100.

06. Uh and so those portfolio managers will take their position down from maybe they were optimistic on Nvidia and they were at 3.8. Well, they'll take it down to three and to them that's betting against uh Nvidia uh and uh and to them that's also taking a big risk because they're being compared against other managers who are doing much the same thing.

07. Uh as you know ArchInvest doesn't think that way at all. uh we are uh focused on the future and uh we're very focused on pure plays. Not that I mean we do hold both Nvidia and um and Meta uh in our funds but for the most part certainly our our flagship strategy uh we're well below that weight well below in the one to one and a half% range just to give you an example of uh how how portfolio management has evolved over the years in the traditional asset management world.

08. Um, so I think that the shareholder base holding the mag six, they have gotten so used to uh cash hordes and massive key free cash flow generation that this is a big shock to them seeing these hyperscalers uh take uh their capital spending budgets up 100% in one year. Uh I think Amazon announced it would go from roughly 90 billion uh to 180 billion next year or this year 2026.

09. That's shocking to people and uh we're seeing some of the mag six uh uh raising debt even that has been anathema to this group. Uh so we do think we we're seeing a shareholder turnover. Uh not massive because of what I just described about benchmarks. Um but uh we don't think necessarily that they are doing the wrong things meaning the hyperscalers.

10. Uh we think Google is doing the right thing. Um and all of the Amazon all of this spending we think is the right thing to do. Uh but this is not what traditional portfolio managers who are benchmark sensitive uh are used to grappling with. Um we grapple with it uh all the time. But here you can see what we this we put in um our big ideas 2026.

11. Uh you can see what we're trying to illustrate here is uh investment in data center systems. Now I know you've probably seen the $650 billion uh spending capital spending boom that newspapers are highlighting. Um that includes much more than data center systems. So just want to make that clear. So you can see here that uh data center system spending growth was really mid-s single digits uh at an annualized rate uh for many years and it and it kind of stayed in the 100 to200 billion range until the chat GPT moment uh and since then you've seen a compound annual rate of growth in at 29%.

12. Uh I think with the announcements today 100% in one year uh we're moving into overdrive. Now you can see from our forecast uh that we've been expecting a 30% compound annual rate of uh increases since 23 and um I think if we were to push this forward to 25 now and do a 5-year uh kagger it would be in the 25% range.

13. Uh so these recent announcements uh certainly um are proving this forecast uh right and then you can see just to throw in uh another perspective here. We also see that the chip market is is going to um transform or evolve I should say uh in the next 5 years uh a little bit from GPUs taking share uh to AS6 t taking share and so uh we've um highlighted that there could be a shift from the likes of Nvidia's chips uh AMD's chips uh to Broadcom's chips uh now uh we think that there's going to be a massive appetite for all chips uh but did want to highlight this share shift as well uh Much like we highlighted the shift to away from SAS uh toward platform as a service.

14. Uh now this spending is it justified? This chart Brett Winton our chief futurist um prepared for big ideas 2026. Uh it highlights the technology revolution investment cycles here and you can see the railroad in the 1800s. Railroad spending as capital spending as a percent of GDP got into that 5 to 6% range.

15. Uh then you go to uh the automobile in red there. Uh but we have multiple flat platforms evolving at the same time and this is additive. So maybe with telephone, electricity and the automobile uh we would see capital standing um up at that cumulatively up at that uh 5 to 6% range. Uh and then you get to the internet um the tech and telecom boom uh and you can see it looks like it pales in comparison to those other two.

16. Uh but we do have an additive situation going on here. Uh and you can see that adding all of those together is maybe the equivalent of just the automobile cycle uh in the early 1900s. And then here we are uh and we we believe these are our forecasts and they have been our forecast and we haven't changed our forecast in the last year uh but we've got something additive going on here as well um that could accumulate to 12% or more of GDP.

17. Now just to give you a sense of uh or some perspective I remember in the bubble uh te telecom equipment spending on the part of some uh providers got up to 25% of GDP and as I always say too much too soon uh and uh and we ended up with a lot of dark fiber. It didn't go live for a very long time. One thing we can say about this cycle is the demand for GPUs is voracious and they are landing in these data centers uh which are saying we need more capacity.

18. We need more chips. Uh those GPUs are not dark. Uh and I'm stealing that from uh Brad Gersonner at Altimter. I thought that was a very good analogy. The fiber went dark. GPUs are alive and there's a big scramble for them. Now the risk here is and you know I have an economics background and I'm always looking for those risks.

19. Whenever I hear the word shortage, uh I usually um believe that there's going to be a glut, an inventory glut at some point, and I'm sure there will be in the chip space, uh but I don't think it's going to be for a long time. Uh you need to listen to Elon Musk who's talking about uh chips and power as uh you know, for as far as the eye can see, uh being in short supply.

20. Uh and uh now that he's thinking about putting data centers into space, perhaps even more so. So on this next chart, this this is getting uh to investors. Um so you can see on the left here the the tech sector capital spending as a percent of GDP and you can see that it has gotten up to uh bubble days.

21. Uh and that's a little bit unnerving to investors. And here's why. Many of the most seasoned investors today um were very young when the tech telecom bubble took off and now they are the greyhairs. Uh and I'm friends with a lot of them. uh and many of them are saying been there done that I'm leading uh this organization now and I'm going to protect it from this bubble uh and uh we understand that um but as I just described we have really just started this journey and we expect the capital spending cycle to go much further for much longer uh and uh the reason is the technologies are ready you know uh back in the 90s we didn't get the cloud even until 2006 uh but there were visions of you know, eyeballs uh uh in 10 years uh being the source of valuation today.

22. Uh we didn't get the cloud till or or back then. We didn't get the cloud until ' 06. We didn't get the first big breakthrough in AI until deep learning imageet in 2012. Even bigger and more profound transformer architecture in 2017. And even off of that, we didn't get chat GBT, the aha moment until the end of 22, early 23.

23. So, we have just begun this journey. Uh now one other difference very important you can see from this chart is the valuations today are much different than they were at the peak of the bubble. Uh so the dash line there you can see are uh that is the valuation of the mag 6. Uh and you can see how crazy the valuations did get uh at a time when the technologies weren't ready and the costs were too high.

24. Tommy speak with not only for DAO 50K and the jump back in tech but also as the chairman of Bitine. Tom I know you're watching what's taking place in crypto. We're talking about a 7-month low uh for the stock Bitine. The Ethereum paper losses $8 billion. Is this in jeopardy of going into a pretty dark place?

25. Uh hi Scott, thanks for having me. Um you know, Bit is designed to be a vehicle that tracks Ethereum prices, but on the upswing because we're we're adding Ethereum will outperform. So, Bit Ethereum's in draw down. Bit mine's going to be in this draw down stock. Bit mine has no leverage. uh it has roughly 4.3 million Ethereum that earns 3% annually and we have 600 million in cash earning about 4% in money markets.

26. So the company is making about a million dollars a day. So there is no risk, no need for the company to actually raise money because it's debtree and actually generates about 360 million a year net income. Um I think crypto sentiment is rock bottom because it has been a terrible draw down. I mean just the past 10 days Ethereum's down 40%.

27. Um, and that's triggered, I think, a lot of concerns about whether crypto is okay. Um, let me push back against Tom Lee here. Um, in regards to, by the way, good job of him sticking up for, you know, the company he's obviously involved with there and, uh, you know, kind of pointing out their cash position and lack of leverage and things like that.

28. Robbo to him. Sentiment's at the bottom for crypto when no one wants to talk about it. Still a lot of people want to talk. Like, I went on X here today. Everybody's talking about the bounceback and talking about like, oh, we're up some, but you know, we're still down so much. Like, I'll give you a good example.

29. Like obviously Bitcoin, Ethereum, it kind of bottomed out there um end of 2022. No one was even cared to talk about Bitcoin Ethereum. Like it was almost like embarrassing if you even try to bring it up, right? Like don't even talk about it. A lot of people still talking about it. Like a lot of people.

30. And so you're usually at a bottom when no one's interested. No one wants to talk about it. And a lot of times the same with a market if you're actually going through a bare market. Usually by the end of that bare market, you know, you're at the end when almost no one even wants to talk about stocks anymore, right?

31. Like everybody's so down and out. They're kind of like over it. like the crash period already happened and every time like people thought the market was coming back or bottomed it just went lower and by the time you get to the end of it like no one even wants to talk about it and so that's what I'll say about that.

32. So sentiment could get a lot worse from here. And you know, let's say hypothetically, you know, Bitcoin, Ethereum keep trying to play this game of like coming back and then they just go lower, right? And then they come back a bit and then they just go lower. And let's say that lasts all the way to the fourth quarter.

33. By the time you get to the fourth quarter, no one will want to talk about Bitcoin. No one will want to talk about Ethereum anymore. And that's when you'll actually get the real deal Holyfield bottom there. Okay? But we'll see what happens. Bible. But you know, all of those statements that I just heard and from just a minute ago, I heard the same thing in November 2022 after FTX.

34. And that's the reality that crypto is sort of characterized by hyper volatility and big draw downs. And in just in the last eight years, Ethereum's had seven draw downs of 60% or more. The good news is seven of seven of those were all V-shaped recoveries. So we had a waterfall decline. If cryptos bottoming now, which it kind of looks like it is, especially given Micro Strategies 25% move, the recoveries are V-shaped.

35. we we we recover as quickly as we've fallen. Just want to follow up on that. What what you suggest there's there's no risk to the the company is that assumption that Ethereum has stopped going down, that this is a a bottom. If there is what some have predicted to be a coming quote unquote death spiral for certain cryptocurrencies, if the situation with Ethereum gets worse, what happens here?

36. Uh well, yeah, I mean, it's it's a fair question. I think we can look at uh metrics. For instance, if you look at the number of active addresses on Ethereum, it's up 117% versus a year ago. In fact, in just the last 3 months, that's actually gone up parabolically. Uh, as you know, uh, coming out of Davos, what was the big story around what Wall Street plans to do?

37. It's tokenization, which is moving a lot of their financial infrastructure onto the blockchain. Scott, that's that's not going to change just because crypto prices have fallen. But what is the blockchain that is evident you know listed uh named by whether it's UBS standard charter or Fidelity where they're tokenizing products it's on Ethereum.

38. So Ethereum is not in a death spiral because the utility is going up. The price of course has been awful. Unfortunately you know crypto prices are volatile. It it's not like earnings estimates change for Ethereum. In fact uh network usage is up 80% in just the last six months. It but it does mean prices move a lot.

39. I mean it's sort of a feature of crypto itself. So the most painful thing that could happen here with Bitcoin, Ethereum, and the thing where you really get sentiment to just go awful is have these these bouncebacks come, investors pour money in. Bitcoin's back, Ethereum's back, we're going higher, right?

40. Always just be let down and it goes lower and then starts to bounce back and then each time the comeback is weaker because people start doubting more and more and more, right? And then eventually you just get that last just brutal waterfall sell-off and that's usually when you reach a bottom, right?

41. in regards to at least bitcoin and ethereum and those are really you know at least from my perspective like if you're gonna own anything in the space like you know those are really the only two uh worth owning. Bitcoin is more just from a a standpoint of like digital gold if you want to look at it from that standpoint, right?

42. Um obviously back in the day people used to talk about oh everybody's going to be transacting in Bitcoin that obviously future has not come but from like I get it like a digital gold like perspective like there's only 21 million ever in that perspective. Ethereum is more of I think a use casebased one and um that's been a strong case for years.

43. Maybe it's getting stronger now, but you know, the bottom line is you want to create the most pain, just have every bounce end up eventually going lower and then people will just be by the time you get to the fourth quarter, people will not even want to entertain the thought of conversating about Bitcoin, Ethereum.

44. Thoughts about the market today. What do you think is going on? Happy days are here again. I mean, across the board, everybody's buying, buying, buying, not just stocks, but Bitcoin, gold, and uh so the asset a lot of asset classes are doing extremely well. And I I think a lot of that has to do with all the spending that these uh uh hyperscalers are are planning to do.

45. $650 billion this year is going to be very very stimulative to an economy that honestly doesn't really need to be stimulated. We also have uh refund checks that are coming uh that are going to be very large. Yeah, it's amazing to contemplate. So what here's what's ironic. So Amazon shares are down 8%.

46. Our guest last hour said yeah, they're a little behind as far as he's concerned and need to spend this 200 billion figure to catch up. The rest of the market is cheering. Nvidia is up 7%. Everything in the AI value chain is like great. We're thrilled. Glad to hear it. Nobody's talking about a recession and the only question is how big a boom are we going to have from all this?

47. Right. J the Atlanta, what is it? The Atlanta GDP. Now, I know it fluctuates, Ed, but it's showing about a 5% GDP growth. And I think you're touching on a really important topic because we like to keep things simple here. We say, okay, Meta or Amazon is spending a billion dollars on a data center. What we don't talk about is that there's probably 500 to a thousand vendors, different companies inside of

48. so Trump, you know, I always like to look at these things as objectively as I possibly can, right? As somebody that doesn't vote for the political party, if you watch my channel for years, you know that, right? I just look at it as like, you know, from their different standpoints. Trump is getting a lot of what he wants um in terms of trying to create a very strong economy and economic backdrop for the next three years.

49. He's getting companies, all these big tech companies to spend a fortune over the next several years, right? Which is once again very stimulative to the economy. He's getting a situation where um you know with the big beautiful bill that should really start to impact in a positive way the consumer as well.

50. He's also getting inflation to stay at bay which is something very important because it's like okay let's say the economy is really strong but inflation's out of control and you got you know 5 6 7 8% CPIs gh you know are you really doing any better? No. But if you can keep that CPI under 3% while you have an economy that strengthens considerably, now we're talking.

51. Right? Now we're talking about an economy where people feel great again, right? And you see I mean for the last several years the I mean the the consumer sentiment has been about as bad as you've ever seen. If you want to talk about fixing that consumer sentiment over the next two or three years to getting a great consumer sentiment again, have inflation be dead while the economy is extremely strong and you'll see those sentiment numbers jump skyrocket from here essentially and get back to where they were uh kind of in like 2018 2019 before you obviously had the the Rona uh crash, right?

52. So now the the last component Trump is trying to get, we'll see if he's able to get it, but Trump wants to get housing moving. And the only way you can get housing moving, I mean there's two ways. one is the economy much stronger, but that's not really the way. You got to get mortgage rates lower, right?

53. In order to get mortgage rates lower, he's really got to get that 10 year lower. But the problem is if you have a strong economy, then usually there's fears about inflation. So to get that tenure a lot lower is a difficult challenge. So he's been able to do quite a few things that you want to do if you're going to try to set up a really strong economy for the next two or three years.

54. But that that last component, that's going to be difficult. If he can do that, then you can talk about the real estate market's also moving and then you got an overall great economy. If you get real estate moving, plus jobs are there, wages are strong, right? Overall spending's good, and inflation is, you know, in a lower place.

55. Let's just call it banger, right? You got a banger for two or three years. Um, we'll see if he pulls off the real estate one. That one I'm really really intrigued with there. That's that's that might be the biggest challenge of all.