저자: RayDalio · 외국인
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결론: 달리오는 세계질서 변화와 부채·통화가치 하락 우려를 근거로, 현재 환경이 1970년대와 유사해지고 있다고 본다. 역사 연구 배경: 대공황과 1971년 닉슨의 금태환 중단, 1933년 루즈벨트 조치를 연구한 경험이 2008년 금융위기 예측에 도움이 되었다고 설명한다. 과거 패턴이 현재 이해의 지침이 된다는 입장이다. 현재 지정학: 미국의 제재는 일종의 경제전쟁이며 달러 체제에 큰 영향을 준다. 인도의 대러 직접 거래 등으로 달러 보유자와 자산 동결 우려가 커지고 있다. 글로벌화 전망: 무역전쟁, 기술전쟁, 지정학적 영향력 전쟁, 자본전쟁(현재 진행 중), 군사전쟁의 다섯 가지 전쟁 가능성을 제시한다. 이로 인해 자급자족과 국가주의가 강화되고 글로벌화는 약화된다고 본다. 금융시장 영향: 전쟁기 주식은 현금흐름이 핵심이며, 기술주 등 개별 이벤트 영향은 다르다. 근본적으로는 통화가치가 흔들린다. 재정·통화 리스크: 대규모 재정적자와 지출 확대를 화폐 발행으로 메우면 통화가치가 하락한다. '현금은 쓰레기(cash is trash)'라는 인식이 확산되고 채권의 마이너스 실질수익률이 자산 이동을 촉발한다. 인플레이션 전망: 이러한 흐름은 인플레이션 환경을 만들며, 현재 상황이 1970년대와 점점 닮아간다고 본다. 주식은 상승할 수 있으나 명목 가치와 달러 가치 변화에 주의해야 한다는 함의가 있다. 리스크: 자산 동결 위험, 달러 체제 이탈 움직임, 인플레이션 장기화가 주요 리스크로 제시된다.
다듬은 글
studying the great depression allowed me and bridgewater to anticipate the 2008 financial crisis if i didn't study that what's happening now is very relevant is a guide to the past is a guide to what's happening now i i stumbled upon on youtube uh principles for dealing with the changing world order why nations succeed and fail this posting by you has amassed close to 10 million views take us through how you came up with it and why did you put this together well the the study i needed to understand things that were happening happening to us i'm a global macro investor and there are things that are happening in our lifetimes that never happened before the amount of spending uh financed by debt the amount of internal conflict the rise of great power in the form of challenge uh china to challenge the existing world order and so on the alliances with um russia and all of that and so um i needed to study the rise in decline of reserve currency so i went back 500 years to see uh the dutch gilder and the patterns of the past uh it helps me and then when i did the study i did a book because i thought it was important to pass along and then i wanted to make it very clear and digestible so the animation that you're talking about is very clear and digestible so people can put what's now happening in the perspective of these historical patterns which helps people uh think about what's coming next i i will bring this more current uh momentarily but i do want to ask how does this type of exercise or these type of this type of research by you help you become a better investor well it helps me understand what's likely to come next um you know like for example um right now the u.s is imposing sanctions sanctions are it's a form of economic warfare and it has a big implication for the dollar right um okay now others are trying to get out of the dollar system there's a dollar system that now is being uh changed india is dealing directly with russia and um holders of dollars and nominated assets um don't want to hold those dollar answers if they feel that they're going to be um grabbed and so on so what's happening now has happened many times before and without that kind of perspective i wouldn't be able to deal with it and i learned this in in my past uh because um well just quickly uh in 1971 uh nd president nixon gets on and he says um we're not going to give you the gold that the dollar is backed by and we had a devaluation um it took me by surprise um i worked on walked on the floor of the stock exchange i thought it was going to go down a lot it went up a lot and that's because i never experienced the currency devaluation i found the same exact thing when i studied history same exact announcement took place on march 5th 1933 by roosevelt and had the same effect so i understood then how history before me was important studying the great depression allowed me and bridgewater to anticipate the 2008 financial crisis if i didn't study that what's happening now is very relevant is is a guide to um the past as a guide to what's happening now let's talk about what is happening now is globalization just using this in the context of what you have written here is globalization at a point of failure or has it failed um as as as we are approaching um a challenging of the world order in other words a great power challenging another there is an increased um likelihood of some kind of war there are five kinds of wars there's a trade war a technology war a geopolitical influence war a capital war which we're in the midst of and then there's a military war and those things drive countries to be self-sufficient and independent and as a result globalization diminishes and nationalization nationalism increases yes and what does that mean for financial markets because by and large i think a lot of folks would be surprised that stocks are hanging tough all things considered well it's it yeah it's not the stock market stock market so it's in the book it uh takes you through the stock markets during war periods and so the only thing that matters for stocks is the the cash flows and as you get into the conflict that's a different story um if you begin to see as it progresses those that are affected by the individual of events um haven't have an effect for example tech stocks but um anyway in answer to your question how does it affect the markets it affects the value of money most fundamentally like what we're seeing now uh is that the value of money when you run very large deficits and you have you have to spend a lot you have to spend a lot on uh social programs you have to spend a lot on uh defense you have to spend a lot on environmental programs and so on and so when you spend a lot more money than you earn um then you have to print money to make up that difference to make the purchases and then that devalues money and so it's like the examples i gave you of the two currencies evaluations that you had before 1971 led to the inflationary period of the 1970s and so you have the stock market yes the stock market goes up and other things but cash is trash and people get them begin to learn that um the bonds that they're holding uh have negative returns and it starts to change the value of money the value of money the value of dollars and so on so money goes into other assets it produces a more of an inflation and you start to enter a certain type of environment and the environment that we're in is beginning to be very much like that of the 1970s
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