저자: ThomasVeillet · 외국인
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시장은 중동 협상 기대와 전쟁 충돌 사이에서 혼조. 유가는 협상 발언에 하락했으나 호르무즈 통항은 66% 급감해 재상승 리스크 존재. 미국 30년물 금리 5.12%로 상승, 트럼프의 캐나다 상품 50% 관세가 향후 인플레이션을 자극할 것으로 봄. 반도체는 구글·AMD 소식에 혼재, 오라클은 부채 우려로 52주 저점. S&P500 실적은 양호하나 기대치 상향 부담으로 조정 중. 발언자는 전반적으로 금리 상승과 인플레 재가속에 우려적 시각.
다듬은 글
The market is doing something I haven't seen in a long time . He is applauding peace while bombs are falling for the 10th consecutive night. 10 nights, three American soldiers who died this weekend. Trump vows that Iran will pay many times the price. And meanwhile, Wall Street is selling oil. Yes, because an Iranian spokesperson uttered the magic word "negotiation".
No details, no who, no what, no where, no how, just one word. And that was enough to make the barrel bend. So today I'm going to tell you how a market can have its best earnings season in 3 years and still fall back and stay until the end because the real bomb is not in the Middle East, it is hidden in a $638 billion order book.
And if it explodes, even the Fourth of July fireworks will look like a damp squib. Welcome to this Morning Bull Live. It's Tuesday, it's hot, volumes are thin, nerves are on edge and the market has just given us its third consecutive session in the red. Nothing dramatic in the figures of course, but everything is dramatic in the atmosphere.
Today, oil, rates that are quietly rising, Trump bringing back a 1930 law, Michael Burry laughing and a market holding its breath until Thursday evening. I am Thomas Veillet and it is July 21, 2026. This program is brought to you by Swiss Quot. First of all, what you are about to hear and see in this video is not financial advice.
This is my opinion, my analysis, and sometimes my mood of the day. However, if you want to understand the stock market, then you've come to the right place. Yesterday, the expression, like on a Monday, took on its full meaning. The market behaved like someone who doesn't know where they're going because, in fact, they don't know where they're going.
He waits, he waits to find out where we're going and especially how we're going to get there. Yet, it had started off rather well, hadn't it? The opening was full of testosterone, the Nasdaq puffing out its chest with a gain of over 1.2%, and then in the afternoon, poof, everything was used to fiddle around like a birthday balloon that you find deflated under the sofa the next morning.
Except that in this case, it's not really the decline that interests me. For me, it's more about the trajectory. We start the day full of energy and then we end it with our tails between our legs as if nobody, absolutely nobody, wanted to spend the night with the slightest open position, as if everyone was terrified that something might happen while we sleep.
Something like, I don't know, random surprise customs duties on Canada. So to sum up the day in one sentence: nobody dares to buy, nobody dares to sell, everyone is waiting for proof, but proof of what? that the mountains of billions thrown into artificial intelligence will eventually yield a real benefit.
We can talk about that on Thursday morning. Yes, because on Wednesday evening, Alphabet, Tesla and IBM will kick off the tech show. Intel will follow up on Thursday and right in the middle of all this, Dame Christine and the ECB will be there on Thursday. So, Ms. Christine is keeping watch, not going to do anything on the rates a priori, but she will appear to be thinking very intensely with this total and fully assumed immobility that only central bankers know the secret to.
In short, we're not going anywhere, but we're going there with strong conviction. Otherwise, things continue to bleed on Ormouse's side. 10th night of US airstrikes on the Iron. Three American soldiers killed over the weekend. Trump yelling on social welfare that Teron will pay the price many times over.
And on the other side, Iran, which talks of total war in the morning and of discussions and messages in the afternoon. But the market , it's all about sorting. He only keeps what suits him . He clings to the hope of peace like Leonardo DiCaprio clung to his plank in the Titanic, even if it didn't end very well in the end.
So yes, we sell the oil. Why do we sell oil? Well, because an Iranian spokesperson stated that mediators had submitted proposals. Which ones? It's a mystery, no one has any idea, but it doesn't matter, the word " negotiation" is enough to make the barrel bend. In short, oil prices are falling again because people in authorized circles are allowing themselves to think that a secret agreement could be reached.
Except that on the ground, the scenery tells exactly the opposite story. Traffic in the Strait of Ormous collapsed by 66%. 53 crossings compared to 157 the previous week, barely 15% of the pre-war level. The tools have just decreed a blockade against Saudi Arabia, which in turn blocks the Red Sea escape route.
And gasoline has gone back up to $4 a gallon in the United States and some American strategists are starting to say that the market remains, in their opinion, far too complacent with regard to oil and that it is easy to go back above $100 a barrel. if it were to drag on indefinitely . Yesterday, there was another one , another strategist who seems to be 150.
So, we agree, everyone is playing the target on the oil with darts, but we still feel that anything can happen the day someone realizes that it's not going to work or that one of the two when going too far remains to be seen what too far means. For now, we've said negotiation, so it's good for peace, so we're selling off finance.
It is sometimes a kind of magnificent theatre where people applaud even before the actors have gone on stage. Now, the thing that nobody wants to face and that I've been telling you for months is that rising oil prices mean future inflation that will increase the bill, and inflation will raise interest rates.
The yield on the 30- year US Treasury note has jumped to 5.12%, a level not seen since mid-May, and we are getting dangerously close to pushing it higher to 520. The 10-year yield has risen from 4.5 to 4.59, and everyone is holding their breath waiting to see what Warsh will announce next week because the question is no longer whether rates will rise.
The question is when, how many times, and to what extent. And then we also have the other side of the Channel in terms of rates and it's not really any better because in the United Kingdom, the arrival of Labour's Andy Burnham at Downing Street, who also fired his chancellor Rachel Reeves on the very first day, did not really please the market.
The news propelled the 10-year guilt from 495 to 504. Basically, the markets don't like Burnham and they're letting us know with their yields. In Germany the bond yield is 315 and the French OAT yield is 395 . It's the same range everywhere. Show them a government that spends a little too much and the punishment will come as fast as a Trump tweet.
Budgetary discipline has never been an option. This is a permanent threat signaled by the bond market. But here too, here, we don't want to see it. We tell ourselves that when peace with the Iyon lasts more than 45 minutes, everything will obviously be better. We'll be safe with what we have, and for now, as crazy as it may seem, it works.
And then, since we hadn't been talking about him enough since the end of the World Cup, Trump struck again. He has just slapped a 50% tariff on a portion of Canadian imports, relying on, get this, section 338 of the 1930 tariff act, a relic of the Great Depression. It has never been used before. It had been brought out of the closet for the occasion with a quick wipe down .
It will come into effect in 30 days to leave a window for discussions and, of course, to give us a taco at the trade as usual. In the crosshairs: automobiles, dairy products, alcohol and dog handles. Canada had removed American whisky from its shelves. We politely return the favor. Energy, potash, fish, and mineralocry, on the other hand, are spared.
We're not completely stupid either. An economist last night described this maneuver as a very big deal because it opens the door to the same recipe against guess who? China and Europe, which will therefore push US inflation upwards as early as this autumn. So I've been saying it from the beginning: more tariffs, more inflation, more rates, more war, less agreement with the customer, and more expensive oil.
If this catastrophic scenario materializes, War will have to raise rates by 1% every 3 weeks, just to hope for an effect before the end of Trump's term. Provided that this mandate ends one day and that he does not declare himself president for life. The market, for its part, prefers to turn a blind eye for the time being.
On the semiconductor side, it's a complete mess, and that's actually pretty good. Alphabet gained 1.5% on a news item. This suggests that Google would etch Doren into silicon before its Gemini model. Code name Frozen V2. A chip that is 6 to 10 times more efficient per token. Deployment planned for 2028.
That's practically another life, but the market can never resist a beautiful distant dream. It's practically the house specialty of hyperskalers. AMD then released Elios. The first complete RAC system designed and intended to compete with Nvidia, with Microsoft joining Meta Open and High and Oracle in the customer base.
The stock price jumped 4%. Nvidia still reigns over 95% of the market. AMD settles for 4.5. But if ISASU only succeeds in greening 20%, we are already talking about hundreds of trillions of dollars. Meanwhile, in North Korea, they are looking for someone to blame for the volatility. President Lee James Jung points the finger at leveraged single-security ITFs.
Many are backed by Samsung and NX, both of which have been declining recently. Like all politicians on the planet, it's so easy to come and give lessons after the rain. It reminds me of those former prime ministers who did nothing in power and who come back to explain that they are ready to save the country because this time they have understood and the worst part is that there are some who believe them in Saoule.
So nobody is asking the only real valid question: what if the problem is that a few unfortunate stocks alone account for almost 3/4 of the index? No, it's the fault of the lever. We always blame the tool and never the hand it holds. We're yelling at the fork because we gained 3 kg over the weekend. And here we finally arrive at the bravura piece I was waiting for.
Michael Burry. On Friday, the media took him apart by announcing that he had sold his short position on Oracle and his response on X was admirably sober and violent. Fake news, I covered half of it because I make so much money. Translation, he pockets part of his gains on a position that was a little too big and he remains short and besides he can smile.
He has reason to smile since Oracle hit a 52- week low of $121.5, 63% below its peak. SP downgraded the rating to triple B- one notch above Junk Bonds, pointing out that Open AI represents half of a $638 billion order backlog and a projected cash hole of $42 billion. Except here's the problem, Oracle is looking more and more like Adobe and the numbers are downright staggering.
If there is the slightest grain of sand that gets between PA and Oracle, the whole house of cards of debt around Lia will collapse in our faces and it will collapse so hard that we will be back for years. So, maybe the real bombshell isn't necessarily Ormous' D3. It should also be noted that memory chips have rebounded somewhat following some recommendation increases.
Caliaba won 3, Hong Kong by unveiling Quen 3.8 max 2400 billion parameters. Apparently the second best model in the world after Tropic. Second Chinese demonstration in a week after Moonshot's Kimik K3 which had given the chemist a bit of a scare on Friday. Remember, the Peking-California ping-pong tournament continues in full swing.
So let's recap. The season 's results have been excellent. There are no other terms. 88% of the top 50 companies in the SNP 500 beat expectations. Best start in 3 years. Projected profit growth of 28% and yet the market is declining. It is retreating because no one is asking whether expectations will be exceeded.
We ask, we wonder if they will be sufficient. When you set the bar at the height of the Milky Way, well, even a perfect copy comes across as a slight overall disappointment. The wonderful world of finance in a nutshell: it's a place where you can succeed at everything, do everything right, and still get yelled at in the end.
And then it's summer, right? Volumes are thin, nerves are raw, and we invent dramas to stave off boredom because we have to find time to occupy ourselves. Speci has fallen below $120 and has just recorded its 7th consecutive session of decline. Jean-Noël Barreau gives Iran a hard time after two agents from the French embassy were assaulted.
They denounce a very serious attack on the country. Except that Iranians don't even know who he is. Jeanel Barreot. That said, Jean Noël Barreau always seems to be giving me the evil eye. And it's always fascinating to see ministers getting worked up in a rather inconsistent way in an attempt to regain some respect that they have lost forever anyway .
So what are the key takeaways this morning? We'll put the pool back there tomorrow. We'll talk about rates again in the fall or maybe next week depending on the mood of Kevin Wars lia from Google. We'll talk about it again in 2028, but we'll still talk about it tomorrow evening for the results. We put everything aside, we close our eyes, we cross our fingers that peace will last longer.
If we manage to find a peace agreement, the market buys peace for now while the bombs continue to fall. He celebrates the results by falling back, and the next step is therefore Google tomorrow, as well as IBM and Tesla. And until then, this Tuesday, I'm warning you, is likely to be a little bit boring.
And as Numéro Bis said, it's too quiet. I don't really like that very much. I prefer it when it's a little less calm. Well, for me it's the same because in this profession, the real danger is never the storm but often the silence that precedes the storm. Don't forget to subscribe to the Suiss Cô channel in French and activate the bell so you don't miss anything.
Uh, and most importantly, you also have to like the video, share it and comment on it. That [grunting] is mainly to excite the YouTube algorithm. Have a good day everyone, and see you tomorrow. Bye bye. This content is informative and educational, intended for people familiar with financial markets.
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