저자: EdYardeni · 외국인
요약 보기
미국 경제가 3% 이상 성장하며 강하고 기업 실적이 주가를 떠받치고 있어 S&P500 연말 7,000, 내년 7,700 기본 시나리오 유지. 금리인하는 경기 부양 효과 없이 주가 과열(멜트업)만 키울 수 있음. 노동시장 약세는 공급측(이민·은퇴)과 AI 도입에 따른 고용 억제가 원인. 관세는 무역 협상 타결 쪽으로 시장이 덜 민감하게 반응 중이며, 대법원 위헌 판결 시 환급 소송으로 채권시장 충격 가능성 언급.
다듬은 글
Joining us right now is Ed Yardeni. He is the president of Yardeni Research. And Ed, you say you have been humming a tune ever since we got those cooler than expected inflation numbers on Friday. You want to hum a few bars for us now? Well, you know, I mean there there are a lot of songs here. So happy days are here again certainly comes to mind and fly me to the moon, you know, that great Frank Sinatra song comes to mind.
So there's a lot of happy songs. Don't worry, be happy might be another one. So so a lot of a lot of tunes are spinning in my head from this market. You say that the markets are complacent, but that doesn't mean you think that they are likely to drop. In fact, you think a melt up is much more likely.
Yeah, it's it's kind of an odd situation. We've got some indicators actually suggesting that at least retail investors aren't as bullish as the data shows from from the flows. But the complacency of the stock market so far is actually justified by the resilience of the economy which is showing up in the resilience of earnings.
The valuation multiples are certainly stretched at about 22 23 when you look at forward PE, but we've been there before. We could see the valuation multiple go up and down for a while, but it's really earnings that have been carrying the day and I think that's still the case. So let's talk this through.
Your your base case is a bullish scenario. I think you have 50 to 55% odds on that. But but you say a melt up of you know, a melt up above 7,000 for the S&P 500. I think you have 25 to 30% odds on that. Yeah, well the the I play the odds just to simply convey my conviction level on these scenarios. So 50% is where we just get to oh, you know, 7,000 by the end of the year, 7,700 by the end of next year.
So it's an ongoing bull market. But with the Fed cutting rates up ahead here by probably 50 basis points between now and year end, and I don't think those rate cuts are actually necessary. I think that just stimulates the economy the the the economy more, but really the stock market more. And if that's the case, then I think we could get a a melt up which would be much higher than 7,000 or we get to my levels a lot sooner.
And in that scenario, I think the melt up would be something like 30%. So that's 80% and 20% that thing bad things can happen. Okay, so let let let's talk that through because I think that's a key point. That was what I was going to ask you about next. This idea that rate cuts are coming, but you don't think they're necessary.
You don't think that the job market's in trouble. You don't think that the economy's in trouble. Explain that. Well, the job market has some issues for sure, but I don't think that lowering interest rates is going to solve the problem. I guess the the the theory the simple theory of why it makes sense to lower interest rates is they are viewed by the Fed and other people as being too restrictive.
4% is too high, they think. 3% is where we should go down to, but the economy is proven to that that to be false because just the past two quarters, the second and the third quarter, real GDP has exceeded 3 and 1/2% at an annual rate. That's awfully strong. And and yet we still have problems in labor market.
The problems in the labor market are on the supply side. We've got the migration immigration issues, the deportation issues. We've also have the issue of baby boomers retiring and maybe it's not so easy to replace them with younger inexperienced workers. And on the demand side, everybody's spending money on AI to figure out whether they actually need to add add to uh payrolls.
So the conclusion is that productivity must be awfully strong if GDP is strong and yet the labor market isn't so strong. So if lowering interest rates isn't really going to stimulate demand much more than it already is, which is very strong, isn't going to create more jobs and it's going to lead to a melt up.
I mean, it's early Ed in in AI and already headline what is it? The 27th Wall Street Journal headline October 27th, companies bet they can grow without hiring. So that that might be taking precedence over. You're right about immigration and to highlight some of those other issues, but if this is this might just be you know, what we're seeing as a very beginning of what becomes a really big part of our and it's never happened like this before.
I I don't I never want to say it's it's different this time, but AI could could really be um disruptive to the labor market. Yeah. Well, people in the technology area have been talking about a basic universal income for quite some time. They're they're projecting that the future is here when automation basically produces all the goods that we need and also a lot of the services.
Hey Ed, very quickly earlier this year you cut your S&P 500 target from 7,000 to 6,400 and then again to 6,000 because you were worried about President Trump's tariffs. Is that issue off the table at this point? Seems to be. You know, I kind of covered myself by writing a few times that I reserve the right to change my mind as often as as the president.
So it's it's been a wild ride this year. I usually don't change my forecast that often. But yeah, I'm back to 7,000 by the end of the year and yeah, I I think it's because I've learned from the markets that the markets are taking this issue with with with a a little bit more equanimity. And I think the reason for that is looks like the administration is actually rushing to complete deals before the Supreme Court rules on whether these tariffs are even constitutional.
If the Supreme Court rules that they're not constitutional, I think the administration would like to make sure that they've wrapped up all of the major trade deals before that happens. I I kind of thought that all the trade deals with the Southeast Asian nations this week too were fitting ahead of meeting with China, making sure you've kind of lined up everything in that arena beforehand, maybe put a little little extra pressure on China, too.
And I have to say if we take your wide shot one more time, I am envious of you for that great wall of books behind you. You got a great library. I'm impressed. very much. Thank you. Oh, Andrew's got a question. Andrew? Hey Ed, I I just wanted to ask, you know, you mentioned the Supreme Court issue and I've always thought that some of these countries, specifically China, might try to wait or hold out until they thought that they had a better sense of what that decision even looked like.
And even if they don't, all of these deals that are made, what do you think happens? And and how do you think the market would react if, for example, the Supreme Court were to block this? Obviously, the president can still pursue some of these tariffs, but has to do them in in a sort of different method.
Well, Andrew, I agree with you and I think it's one of the reasons that we're suddenly seeing a real pick up in the in deal making because if they get if they if they put together a deal and the deal includes a backing off on the tariff extreme tariffs that the administration has been talking about, then it's a done deal even if the Supreme Court rules that these tariffs that were used as as baseball bats to get these deals done weren't constitutional.
So I think that's that's kind of what's playing out here. But the real mess is going to be a lot of companies are going to send letters to the Treasury saying, we want our money back. It could it could have an adverse impact in the bond market because the bond market has concluded that no matter no matter what you think of tariffs, they are bringing in something like 350 to 450 billion dollars. So it's it could be pretty messy, Andrew.
Comments 0