원문 보기
I'll pose the same question to you as I opposed to our group to start our show risk reward has it gotten better this week for investors yeah I think it's gotten better and I'll tell you why uh even though they you know the inflation numbers all hit exactly as expected uh when you looked at the details you you saw and you know Scott because I've been talking to you about this issue for so long the over inflated housing data uh because of the Lag Way They compute the prices was was put in as plus point eight percent and when you look at all the rental price indexes Zillow apartment list you look at Kishore indexes of housing a federal index of housing they're actually going down at 0.5.6 so actually not not only did you have actual inflation down and it should have been lower but when I put the actual housing data into the uh the numbers we got uh yesterday actually getting negative core inflation yeah uh and I think the FED is at some time going to be forced to realize that we've really solved the inflation problem and I think that's one reason the market has has rallied and um I think that uh you know they're not going to stay anywhere near as tight as as they claimed so the bond market is right when Kashkari says you know the bond Market's playing chicken with the fed and that's crazy because the fed's going to win you don't believe that no I don't believe that I think through history the the the FED caves to the to the 10-year the tenure doesn't cave to the Fed um you know the the market knows better than the FED what is actually going to happen they say inflation is slowing down and likely the economy is going to be slowing down um I still think there's a chance to avoid a recession if they if they pivot I hope I it looks like 25 basis points Fab one uh that should be the last one actually the one that we had in the uh December should have been the last one but I'm not going to quibble about 25 basis points um inflation on a forward-looking basis is very low and and as I said I think that um Powell's over concern about wages which have not caught up to inflation over the last two and a half years since covet stride uh struck um is first of all and saying we're going to force those down is unfair to the workers and and and not something that the FED should be looking at right now yeah but I mean if there's a structural yeah what do you say though to you know people who are negative on the market like Steve Weiss who's sitting on our desk today who says Bulls like you are ignoring the obvious and on top of that not paying attention to the very history in which you have studied for for decades and that what the FED has already done is going to take a toll we just haven't seen it yet we are I mean so he's predicting a recession a bad recession coming up well he's predicting that earnings are going to take a big drop lower and that stocks are going to follow that fed the the tightening that the FED has already done and you pile quantitative tightening on top of that don't be fooled by a strong economy now it's not going to be the same tomorrow uh you know already to you know earnings are ready this year are not above last year on a year-to-year basis I think we're just about flat normally you know when you talk about you know recession year you're off of a boom you're of of of of actual earnings um we we haven't had a boom year of earnings this particular year and and so I yeah maybe so I don't know what he expects earnings basically to be uh you know look at if they go down to 200 dollars uh on the S P 500 my Studies have shown that the right p e ratio for a recession level of earnings now this isn't a normal level of earnings uh is actually uh 20 to 22 or even 24.
not not 16 17 or 18. uh that's for a normal level of earning so yes if we have a risk that if the worst case scenario goes and you have a recession for a year or two another for two years you have depressed earnings uh and then it jumps all the way back you know I think the Market's already positioned for that
Comments 0