Inflation on a forward-looking basis is low, says Wharton's Jeremy Siegel

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결론: 인플레이션이 예상대로 둔화됐고 연준이 금리 인상을 마무리하며 주식 시장이 회복될 것이라는 낙관론. 인플레이션 평가: 발표 CPI가 예상과 일치했지만 주거비 지표(주택가격 지수)가 과대 반영되었다고 주장. 실제 임대료 지표(Zillow, Apartment List, Case-Shiller 등)는 하락 중이며 -0.5~-0.6% 수준이라고 설명. 이를 반영하면 근원 인플레이션이 음(-)으로 나온다고 함. 연준 전망: 시장이 연준보다 낫다고 평가. 연준은 결국 인플레이션이 해결됐음을 인정하게 되고, 금리를 예상보다 덜 긴축적으로 유지할 것으로 봄. 25bp 인상은 마지막이어야 한다고 주장(12월 인상이 마지막이었어야 한다는 입장이나 25bp는 수용). 채권시장(10년물)이 연준을 이긴다고 봄. 경기침체 논쟁: 연준이 긴축을 계속하면 경기침체 가능성이 있으나, 방향 전환 시 피할 수 있다고 봄. Steve Weiss 등 비관론자에 대해 이익 급감과 주가 하락을 예상하는 주장에 반박하지 않고 경기 강세를 과신하지 말라는 입장. 이익·밸류에이션: 올해 기업이익은 전년 대비 사실상 보합으로 봄. S&P500 주당순이익이 200달러 수준까지 떨어지는 시나리오 언급. 자신의 연구상 경기침체 수준 이익에서 적정 PER은 20~22배, 24배까지 가능하다고 주장. 최악의 경우 1~2년 경기침체 후 이익 급반등 가능성 언급. 시장은 이미 이를 반영하고 있다고 판단. 임금: 파월 의장이 임금 상승을 우려하는 것은 부당하며 노동자에게 불공정하다고 비판. 종목·자산: 개별 종목 언급 없음. S&P500 관련 이익·밸류에이션 전망만 제시. 리스크: 경기침체 및 이익 급감 가능성, 연준의 추가 긴축, 장기 이익 정체.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. I'll pose the same question to you as I opposed to our group to start our show risk reward has it gotten better this week for investors yeah I think it's gotten better and I'll tell you why uh even though they you know the inflation numbers all hit exactly as expected uh when you looked at the details you you saw and you know Scott because I've been talking to you about this issue for so long the over inflated housing data uh because of the Lag Way They compute the prices was was put in as plus point eight percent and when you look at all the rental price indexes Zillow apartment list you look at Kishore indexes of housing a federal index of housing they're actually going down at 0.5.6 so actually not not only did you have actual inflation down and it should have been lower but when I put the actual housing data into the uh the numbers we got uh yesterday actually getting negative core inflation yeah uh and I think the FED is at some time going to be forced to realize that we've really solved the inflation problem and I think that's one reason the market has has rallied and um I think that uh you know they're not going to stay anywhere near as tight as as they claimed so the bond market is right when Kashkari says you know the bond Market's playing chicken with the fed and that's crazy because the fed's going to win you don't believe that no I don't believe that I think through history the the the FED caves to the to the 10-year the tenure doesn't cave to the Fed um you know the the market knows better than the FED what is actually going to happen they say inflation is slowing down and likely the economy is going to be slowing down um I still think there's a chance to avoid a recession if they if they pivot I hope I it looks like 25 basis points Fab one uh that should be the last one actually the one that we had in the uh December should have been the last one but I'm not going to quibble about 25 basis points um inflation on a forward-looking basis is very low and and as I said I think that um Powell's over concern about wages which have not caught up to inflation over the last two and a half years since covet stride uh struck um is first of all and saying we're going to force those down is unfair to the workers and and and not something that the FED should be looking at right now yeah but I mean if there's a structural yeah what do you say though to you know people who are negative on the market like Steve Weiss who's sitting on our desk today who says Bulls like you are ignoring the obvious and on top of that not paying attention to the very history in which you have studied for for decades and that what the FED has already done is going to take a toll we just haven't seen it yet we are I mean so he's predicting a recession a bad recession coming up well he's predicting that earnings are going to take a big drop lower and that stocks are going to follow that fed the the tightening that the FED has already done and you pile quantitative tightening on top of that don't be fooled by a strong economy now it's not going to be the same tomorrow uh you know already to you know earnings are ready this year are not above last year on a year-to-year basis I think we're just about flat normally you know when you talk about you know recession year you're off of a boom you're of of of of actual earnings um we we haven't had a boom year of earnings this particular year and and so I yeah maybe so I don't know what he expects earnings basically to be uh you know look at if they go down to 200 dollars uh on the S P 500 my Studies have shown that the right p e ratio for a recession level of earnings now this isn't a normal level of earnings uh is actually uh 20 to 22 or even 24.

02. not not 16 17 or 18. uh that's for a normal level of earning so yes if we have a risk that if the worst case scenario goes and you have a recession for a year or two another for two years you have depressed earnings uh and then it jumps all the way back you know I think the Market's already positioned for that