저자: TomLee/영상진행자미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
Tom Lee는 S&P500이 올해 말 7,000까지 갈 수 있고 장기적으로 15,000 가능성을 언급하며, 정부 셧다운 공포는 과장이고 AI 생산성 상승과 금리 인하가 랠리를 지지한다고 봄. 반면 Jeff Bezos는 AI가 산업적 버블이지만 실제 기술이라 경고했고, Goldman Sachs는 12~24개월 내 낙폭을 예상, GIC는 AI 기대 대비 기술 미달 시 버블이라고 경고. 진행자는 AI 버블 여부는 알 수 없으며 상위 7개 AI주 비중(약 30% 이상)에 따른 집중 리스크를 지적하고 리밸런싱과 과신 경계를 권고. 특정 종목 매수·매도 권유는 없음.
다듬은 글
Ladies and gentlemen, the stock market legend Tom Lee has predicted that the S&P 500 will end at some spectacular high level at end of this year. And meanwhile, at the same time, many giants are now warning that the AI bubble is getting too big and too dangerous. So, who is right, who is wrong? Today, I'll attempt to analyze this and give you my perspective.
Let's watch on. So Tom Lee sees the S&P 500 to end at 7,000 points by end of the year. But many many big duns are now warning of AI bubble and who is right, who is wrong. Today will attempt to analyze this. And as usual, these are my disclaimers. This is for education, entertainment and not financial advice.
Please remember hit subscribe and stay updated. This is a time that you want to stay very closely with my videos. So the great divide is this. Okay. Uh Tom Strred uh chief advisor and founder says that the S&P 500 could hit 7,000 this year and right now we have 6,700 and is roaring strongly with three more months to go.
If every month it hit 1,000 that would be fantastic, right? But meanwhile we have got GIC already announced that they will uh they are very cautious right now of a hype in the AI bubble and is building up and Jeff Bezos the founder of Amazon is saying that the AI is in a bubble right now and Goldman Sachs has also come out and say that a draw down is coming within 12 to 24 months.
So the the market is now torn between I call ultimate optimism and quiet fear. So who's right, who is wrong? Now AI is dominating the entire uh perspective of Wall Street right now. The S&P 500 has shot up phenomenally because of artificial intelligence and there is a lot of money has poured into AI right now uh for funding.
uh their number I think has reached $300 billion dollars and that's the entire GDP of Singapore. Uh and there's a lot of value added right now in tech giants namely Nvidia, Microsoft, uh Alphabet and so on. So right now we are all very worried that this is going to be a speculative uh outsiz bubble that's dressed up as a new industrial revolution.
So let's watch on. So Tom Lee my favorite analyst I'm not saying that everything he say is right but so far everything he say come to pass and there are times where I challenge his thoughts and I turn out to be wrong it turn out to be so he thinks that S&P 500 could hit a high of 6 6,900 or even 7,000 points that's approximately a 20% upside by end of the year and he even thinks that over over the next 5 to 10 years you'll hit some magical numbers of 15,000 uh points or S&P 500 as productivity revolution will uplift corporate earnings and market multiples.
So he says that a lot of the investors are too pessimistic about short-term noise and underestimating the real power of AI. So that's what he says and I too think that AI is a very real thing right now. It is not a hype. I'm using AI at the astronomical level right now. Every of my slides today are done by AI in a matter of seconds.
Not even uh in hours or minutes, seconds. So Tom Lee's evidence for S&P 500 is this. Number one, he thinks that the government shutdown fear is overblown. And I've already analyzed for everybody a couple of days ago that actually the government shutdown is no big deal. Okay. In fact, after shutdown, there is going to be a big jump as what we see historically.
and AI tends to drive real margin expansion. So there is huge productivity gains and automation right now and right now corporate earnings still remains very strong uh in across the world especially in US and as the interest rate cuts there's going to be a lot of money from money market fund will flow into the equities and bonds.
So he thinks that a broader rally is going to happen and right now the investor sentiment especially those naysayers is just too negative. That's what his perspective is and I'll be frank with you. I don't disagree with him. Okay. So the US market remain very strong as we can see. It's incredibly strong.
It has been hit again and again and again by some rubbish that Trump throws at it. Shut down all this and nothing happens to it man. So right now we have a lot of upsides that that potentially could cut could come and once the interest rate get cut you know very likely it will support a lot more uplift uh in the market.
A few days ago I've also warned that GIC is now issuing warning and saying that there's a hype bubble that is coming in the AI space and that's issued by the GIC CIO and and I'll quote him if technology doesn't catch up with market expectation then we are in a bubble. So even the sovereign wealth fund of you of Singapore is actually giving their warning.
So if that's the case then maybe there is some danger there. I won't dwell too much on this because I have a video already covering that. Now Jeff Bezos of Amazon has came out and say that AI is in an industrial bubble but it is real industrial bubble now. So he says that you know there is a very rampant speculation right now.
every every idea good or bad is getting funded in the AI space and but he did say that AI is real. It will change every industry and he com he compares that with the 1990s biotech boom and now even though there were failures it did lead to many breakthroughs in in the medical technology space. So industrial bubbles while it's dangerous to the stock market can be good because when the dust settle the society benefits.
So he recognized AI is real and will benefit tremendously. So you and I need to get oursel upskill with AI very very quickly. Every time I learn something I'm being thrown far behind already let alone many of you who haven't even started in a massive way. Now Goldman Sachs have also came out. the CEO of Goldman Sachs and not some second or third tier analyst have came out and say that okay that there is a draw down that's coming he predict he predicted that there will be a draw down expected in 12 to 24 months okay and I think that's that's quite serious and whenever whenever new tech accelerate no capital overshoots potential and when there'll be a reset you know people will feel good and this blight optimism can drive investors to overshoot the valuation.
None of them are saying that AI is not real. What everyone is saying that it is too expensive. Okay. And as a result and the correction might come soon. So if you were to draw the lessons from the dotcom parallel, you know, from 990s all the way to 2000, valuation search phenomenally by 300%. And by the way, that's not far away from where we are right now.
And then there's a massive collapse of 80% trillions of dollars will wipe out and uh surprisingly after that the big real winners emerge namely Amazon, Google, eBay and whatsoever and the question right now is that will that be the same in the AI space. Now history does not repeat in a mirror image it but it generally tend to rhyme and we don't know how it will rhyme.
So uh let me say again as uh as I quote Jeff Bezos of Amazon bubbles can be painful but they leave behind real infrastructure and innovation. So the market concentration risk now on S&P fund is very high. We have got uh we have got right now about 30 over% on the top seven AI stocks. Nvidia alone is really occupying 7% of the S&P 500 and the rest of market is here.
So there's a lot of concentration risk right now and we have a so far as a a little prick on this bubble. The whole thing might just explode. So it's uh kind of scary. So right now we have got two very extreme view. We have got Tom Lee basically saying that S&P 500 will hits 7,000 points and could go even much higher.
And then we have got GIC, Amazon, Goldman Sachs all warning everybody that hey you know you got to be careful. You got to be careful. Okay. So who is right, who is wrong. Well the interesting thing if you to step back is this. Everybody agrees that AI is a huge renaissance and revolution is transformative.
There is no one who says that that AI is there AI is something that is a hype. Okay. uh now everybody is just saying that the valuation is outsized and overvalued. So so the question right now is you know is this going to be a something that will create instability and potentially a catastrophic outcome for the stock market?
It's hard to say. So it's a battle between FOMO, fear of missing out versus fear of losing out. So which one is uh going to be the right one? My take is this, okay? We can't control the market, but we can control our exposure. I don't know when is there a bubble or is there not a bubble? I don't know if there's a bubble when it's going to burst.
It's very difficult to tell. But I know that I can position myself at a place where I can write both the both the wave and also protect myself with dry powder if the the market uh were to turn uh the other way. So I want everybody that this is my position that I'm taking. You think for yourself, okay, that you how to capture both the upside and protect yourself from downside.
So the secret is this thing called rebalancing, okay? not overreacting. I'm not telling you to sell sell sell sell. Okay? Now I'm telling you that you know there is a wisdom in some stock market maneuvers that we can think through carefully. So let me remind everybody again I'm not telling you to sell.
I'm not telling you to buy. I'm just telling you to be conscious of potential risk. And today is the biggest risk is overconfidence. Okay? And right now when the whole market believes that AI cannot fail is where the risk is highest. So I think that that because AI is still going to be uh very positive in my perspective.
I personally using AI more and more and I think this going to change my life. I think that we should we should continue to let the compounding happen but you know be very disciplined in our rebalancing and stay humble and that's how know we can accumulate real wealth. So right now I a lot of people ask me Mr.
Look what can we rebalance to? Okay, there are many thing you can rebalance to. You can uh you can put into bonds, you can put into globally diversified index uh you know and and so on. But the one that I like super most is CPF voluntary housing refund because it's a safe 2.5% risk rate return. Okay, and you can put a lot into it without worrying that you will ever chibbaboom.
So this is my biggest uh my biggest favorite CPF voluntary housing refund. Okay, that's one very safe place to rebalance to. So let me say again, the stock market of the US have survived 100 years. He has survived through all sorts of crisis and survived through all sorts of hype. So I think that as long as we play it safe, okay, don't over pursue crazy returns.
I think you know time will allow compounding to happen in a great way. I shared with everybody yesterday that there is a magic number and the number is 15%. For a keer and and that beats you know any kind of gamblers in a big way. So that builds all the mega billionaires and I think this number is a very good number that I'm going to look forward to.
Any number that goes beyond that is something that you will send you into uh gracing. So uh I I think it's better to be consistently wealthy than to be occasionally lucky. So this phrase uh let's uh let's be very clear. So in closing, the stock market is full of booms and busts and bubbles. So uh this is just part and parcel of it.
We got to stay balanced so that we can exploit the the advantage of both uh things. So I think that uh there's lots of uh learning for everybody and I hope that you'll benefit from my sharing. So uh remember hit subscribe and I'll see you hopefully in live stream I can find the right time and the right internet uh bandwidth.
Europe internet is really very bad but you know let's uh let's try to catch up each other as quick as we can. cake. But I
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