저자: TomLee · 외국인
요약 보기
영상 발표자는 S&P500이 현재 약 7,200 신고가이며 단기적으로 7,300 도달 가능하다고 봄. 이후 새 연준의장(Kevin Warsh) 임명 과정에서 시장이 '테스트'를 받아 급락(약 16~20%)할 수 있고, 이후 6~12개월간 V자 반등으로 연말 7,700 도달 가능하다는 Tom Lee 견해를 소개. 중동 전쟁·유가 급등·인플레 상승이 배경 리스크로 언급. 발표자는 예측에 의존하기보다 시장 반응에 따라 대응하겠다는 입장이며, 기본 원칙으로 생활자금/CPF·EPF 같은 안전망 우선을 강조.
다듬은 글
Ladies and gentlemen, Tom Lee, one of the best predictor of the US stock market, has came out with a prediction that is very precise on the path that the S&P 500 will move. So, he has predicted that the S&P 500 will hit 7,300 points, and then it will crash, and then follow after that will be an astronomical rise.
Let's watch and see why he makes such a prediction, and more importantly, validate it against history, and see whether that indeed has happened, and probably will happen or not. So, this journey of the stock market that Tom Lee predicts is one that is very precise in his estimates. And I think this journey is worth looking at, because if it's coming true, then I think that warrants us to prepare ourselves with some strategies.
So, where do we stand today? The S&P 500 has closed at a record high of 7,200 points, and congratulations to all who have held on to your positions, and probably even added some new positions uh over the crash that has happened a few weeks ago. So, the market is right now hit all-time high, and he's predicted that it will hit 7,300 points, and that prediction was made even way earlier.
So, he's just 1.3% away, his prediction from where we are right now. So, maybe it could be within days or even uh a week or so that we hit 7,300 points. But, what is more important is his next prediction, which is that the stock market soon will test the new Fed chair, and it could test it uh significantly, bringing it the stock market down by a massive crash, and following after that there will be a massive and astronomical uplift.
So, why did he say that? Wow, it's uh it's something that is quite interesting. So, meanwhile, the Federal Reserve new chairman has cleared some clearance ready. It's not fully cleared, not appointed yet, but it's clearing. So, Kevin Walsh is nearing his new appointment. Jerome Powell more or less uh is going to hand over to him.
And all these are happening in a macroeconomic and geopolitical backdrop of a serious Middle East war, which oil prices has spiked up at least to 125 points for the Brent crude before it corrected a little bit. And the inflation is rising right now, and it's the highest in 3 years. So, against this backdrop, we have a new Fed chair.
And this is quite textbook case of a testing of a new Fed chair. Tom Lee's hypothesis is that the Federal Reserve uh new appointment of the Fed chair will cause the stock market to test him. Well, from the 7,300 points that Tom Lee has predicted, there will be a testing. And that testing period is likely to be between June to October.
He's likely to be appointed somewhere around June to July based on history because there are some clearance to go through and some Senate to approve. And after that, most likely there will be a testing. And to be frank, that testing might coincide with something that happened in Middle East. Right now, Donald Trump is being briefed by his military uh leaders that maybe it's time to take a military operation because they can't wait forever.
So, uh I don't think people are doubting that the stock market will hit 7,300 points. That's already within the a hair's breadth away. But, the crash is something we're not too sure will happen. And later I'll show you what history tells us. And more importantly, after that, he predict that you know, somewhere around end of the year, November, December, there'll be a massive rally.
And that could coincide with the resolution of the Middle East Middle East crisis. So, his year-end target remains at 7,700 points, and that's a massive number from where we are today. I think it's important to understand what do we mean by testing of the new Federal Reserve Chairman? Well, every Federal Reserve Chairman has a function, and the market expect him to perform a certain role independent of political pressure.
So, number one is does the market believes that the Kevin Warsh, if he's appointed, will he be able to perform independently of what Donald Trump wants him to do? And that one is highly under question right now because he's appointed specifically by Donald Trump in expectation that he will follow what he wants to do, which is basically to cut interest rate.
So, whether he will do that in the right time is the question. Second of all, when there is a crisis, can the market trust Kevin Warsh to push the Federal Reserve to do the right thing to protect the economy? So, all these are testing of the new Fed chair. And what we don't want to see is Warsh is a kind of a puppet for the White House, in particular for Donald Trump.
So, this is where the testing were likely to happen. Now, just to be very clear, there is there is a history of such testing happening. So, 10 of 13 Federal Reserve Chairmen face a drawdown of 10% or more in their first year. So, the hit rate is almost 80% and within 6 months of a Federal Reserve Chairman taking office since 1930, the average drawdown is about 16%.
Some more, some less, and I'll show you later. Now, if 16% would happen, it means that the S&P 500 from a 7,300 points could draw down as much as 6,100 points. Now, if what Tom Lee says is correct that it could even touch 20% then we are looking at 5,800 points. Now, these are severe drawdown. Now, I don't know whether this will happen, but this is what Tom Lee says.
Just to look at history of some examples. So, in 1930, Meyer, which is the Federal Reserve Chairman, uh was appointed and the market drew down by 44%. This is the maximum drawdown. Uh Arthur Burns, 25%. Greenspan, 35%. Paul Volcker, 18%. Bernanke, 15%. Jerome Powell, 12%. You can see that within a 1-year period, this drawdown actually happened and there are different reasons why this happened.
So, you cannot predict the cause, but you can predict the frequency. So, you can look at the frequency and predict that the likelihood of this happening is very high and we do have one political and economic pressure right now, which is the oil prices is spiking up because of the Middle East crisis.
So, this is something that we're all waiting to see and see whether uh this thing will cause the oil oil market to spike up and then cause the inflation to go up and then cause the stock market to fall. So, it is not unthinkable there'll be a testing of the Fed chair in that sense. Now, why is the Fed chair test highly likely is what I said.
There is a geopolitical event and interestingly, interestingly, the previous Federal Reserve Chairman, which is Jerome Powell, he still staying as a governor in the Federal Reserve. So, there's a big kind of a tension because Jerome Powell is famous of having a backbone on his own and stand up against Donald Trump.
So, if that is the case, then we don't know whether what the dynamics will be and how it will affect the testing of the new Fed chair. Now, it's probably time worthy to talk about the V-shape recovery after the testing of the chair. So, nine out 13 times the recovery after the testing of the Fed chair has been V-shape.
That means it's a phenomenal rise, okay? So, within 6 months you can see these were the percentages that it rose within 6 months. And these percentages, well, you look at it like 10 10, you know, 20, all this looks small, but it's within 6 months. And after 12 months, look at this, 90 34, almost 50%, and then you have got a couple of 10 or percent or so.
So, now take note there is one case which is Ben Bernanke, which is 0.9%, but after 1 year it actually hits a 12% as well. So, that's how Tom Lee predicts that there could be a powerful recovery after the testing of the Fed chair and after the market did. Now, just to look at the actual mathematics, if what he says is correct, 7,000 300 points is going to be the peak before the drawdown.
16 points would means 6,100. If it's a 20 point estimate, there will be 5,800 points. And if if from these points we have a recovery, then we are talking about a recovery to 7,700 points, which is what Tom Lee predicts the market will go. It will require a 25 to 30 or even 40% rarely. That's even more than what was previously predicted.
Okay? So, we are looking possibly at a massive rally if what Tom Lee says is correct at the end of the year. Now, there are couple of scenarios that can happen between June to December 2026. Take note, we don't know whether that what Tom Lee says will come true. Yes, he has been pretty accurate but he's not God.
We we don't know whether what he says will actually come true. So, between between now to December, these are the likely things that could happen. In a base case, maybe from a 7,300 points, which is only 1.6% away, it could go down by about 16%, which is the average of what has happened previously, then recover to 7,007.
If this is going to happen, then this is the base case. Now, there could be a bull case, meaning that the fall is actually very weak. So, from 7,300 points, it wobbles down to minus 8% only, and then it drifts up to 7,007. The bull case is very likely, and if that were to happen, it's most likely there's a Iran ceasefire, and everybody celebrates.
The market never really crash, and so on. Happily ever after. In that case, a 8% with drawback may not warrant us to fire too much. You know, in this exceptional case, we have to decide whether do we want to deviate from a crash buying practice I always practice. Now, then if there is a big crash, for example, the oil prices spike to $130, which is actually just $5 away from what we almost had on Friday, and there's a stagflation, and then the Federal Reserve Chairman, his credibility is being tested and failed, then we're are at a massive crash of maybe 25% or more.
Okay? In that case, the stock market will be quite seriously affected. Then there could be a delay of recovery then the 7,000 7 points by end of year may not happen. So, nobody knows what could happen, but what we are I would say you know intrigued by is the history that this is happening and this could happen easily because of the current situation.
So, what do we do? Well, I always tell everybody form a strong financial safety net with your CPF first whether it's your SA or OA, you know, let it compound. Now, for those people from Malaysia, use your EPF as a strong financial safety net. Let them form there and don't touch those. Only above that then you touch some of the funds.
So, do not use funds that you need in that sense to touch uh the stock market if you cannot afford to lose. And this is where I think it's a very important to form a strong financial safety net. So, the thesis of what Tom Lee is saying that the market will first crash then rebound uh could not come true if there could be a sudden ceasefire and the oil price collapse and I I can assure you in the next few period there will be a hell of oil because of all the strong supply that they've been building up in their reserve.
So, they will throw a lot of oil in the market and oil prices will crash. I think that is uh a possibility. But that will require Iran to give in to what Donald Trump is pressurizing. Will it happen? I think the chances low, but not null. And we also could have a situation where the AI boom boom even more that it invalidates all the pressure that we have on Middle East oil crisis.
So, it's really hard to say. So, what I'll do is that you know, I'll watch the market pretty closely and if what Tom Lee says is correct, I will go in, but if it say if it doesn't happen by what he says, you know, I'll just let the whatever I have continue compound. So, in short, I go back to my usual stance.
We don't need to predict, we just need to react. So, we will know this situation outcome very, very soon. Okay, it's not something I need to wait for a few years to test. This is coming in a matter of days, okay, or weeks. So, we'll see whether this this V-shape pattern will come and then we can deploy according to what we are used to.
So, let's see and see whether this thing will give us some opportunity. For those people who don't believe in this, that's fine. Do whatever you want. For those people who believe in this, just need to get ready. All right. Thank you and let me know your opinion of this. We shall see this very soon, okay. I'll see you in the live stream. Thank you and goodbye.
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