Jerome Powell LIVE - Iran & Israel CEASEFIRE - Stock Trading News

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. If you didn't hear the news, there was a Israel Iran ceasefire and then Donald Trump was a little disappointed that they were kind of attacking still, but I think in the next hour uh you were going to set the final uh uh that'll be the final clock for the ceasefire. But other than that, there is definitely a riskon attitude.

Dude, you even got like a NATO summit and all of that, but we're waiting for Jerome Powell. Pre-written statements have already came out. He doesn't really talk much about policy or it's pretty much the same exact thing that he has been on. And then we are going to see if we get any other war developments, but there was a lot.

It didn't make as much sense yesterday. People were already willing to put the war behind them. But now after all of this, if this is a lasting ceasefire and peace deal, even for a little bit, it might really change the game. So either way, baby, get ready for summer. Remember, you even have earnings right around the corner, but let's have a good one.

1 minute and 30 seconds till the bell. I've already gone over the plays, right? Fizzer, Mastercard, Uber, JD, Circle, FedEx, and NA. again. That circle they just got they were downgraded or they got like a neutral and then that's where they are now. But CCL raises outlook. Oh y baby. Okay, I kind of need a pee.

You think I could do it? I think I'm going to try. I think I'm going to try. We only got a minute, bro. We only got a minute. So Chad, run it up. God bless you all. And good morning. Let's have a good one. But post any plays you need anything from me, let me know. things that are DraftKings solid standing in a booming sector gives them the luxury to play the long game.

They're not under pressure to cut costs. When you have really strong revenue growth, you don't need that. If you look at where we are today and where we want to be and where we believe we will be, the vast majority of the incremental ITA is not coming from any cost reduction. It's coming from increased revenue.

We don't feel like we need to cut costs because we're growing our revenue so much. We want to grow our revenue into our existing cost structure and there's no need to reduce the cost as long as we're being efficient with what we allow our cost growth to look like. Key investors, top executives, global innovators.

Join me for in-depth conversations with the biggest news makers on the today's top stories. Insight with Hass Linda on only on Bloomberg. Bloomberg loves earnings. I know it's like your Super Bowl, right? I can't wait. It's like opening presents in the morning. All right. Exciting. Nobody covers earnings.

Round one, fight. All right, baby. So, let's see. Already again, he already opened about three quarters there. Uh, bonds are down and you're going to have Powell talk about higher for longer. So, keep that in mind. Oh, those didn't go up as much. No [ __ ] way. I think those are just lagging. Those might end up moving on the circle.

Where is it? Uh, all right. And then where was the other one? There's another uh Bitcoin one, but I like I said, I don't like that one as much. And then uh the stable coin news. All of those are kind of active. Crude falls by six. NASDAQ up 0.9. Russell, I don't see where the Dow's at. Ah, there is closed option chains.

Oh, do they go through? I don't think. All right. SMB, bro. I can't believe it. You're above the 6,000. Like, you're 60, right? Yeah. So, again, this is a new high from that little cycle, you guys. It's actually kind of crazy. I don't know. Yeah. No, you advanced. Holy [ __ ] So, yeah, that last high from all of this, you have now broken above it.

So, again, 60 60. I think it's like what? 6072 6080 and then you're going to go from there very fast and I think Oh, no way. Those came down. Uber almost at 90. Yeah, they had the Whimo news, so that one's good. I'm waiting for a chain to open. It's not up yet. What was it? Nibbus. Let's see. I don't know if Core Weave got an upgrade, too.

Yeah, Nibbus is upset back at 51. I think that was where Yeah, we made the flip last time. And then I don't know where Cororeweave all the chips are doing good. Everything from big Nvidia to the small ones like Nvitas, SMCI on the high. Watch banks too. You guys remember uh yesterday I closed the banks were like really really big.

Okay, there's Dude, there's literally chains that have not opened yet still. Panter low. Where's Tesla again? People liked yesterday. Spy near the high again. Every single level from here you guys in the last like two to three months. This is this is like a higher point. So you're actually advancing now.

And after putting all of this behind us, the risk on is is very palatable. I think you could see it. Yeah, banks are up by 1.3 right now. Okay, that one's not loading. I don't The options were up for a little bit, but yeah, they scammed us. All right. Now, I think the other one's opening, but yeah, I think I still like those.

Ooh, I think I got one. They're a little expensive, but yeah. All right. Panter, dude, financials are killing it. And then you got Broadcom. There's UNH popping CDTX. We saw that one yesterday again. A couple of other names. Fizzer on the low. Yeah, Broadcom is kind of ripping and Reddit Tesla again.

SBI, a lot of small caps. I mean, surprisingly, the Russell's not even ladding up. 52- week high uh on Broadcom. China foreign minister Wangi held call with Turkish counterpart. Yeah, JD got upgrade. Banks are coming down. AAP, I think they got an upgrade today or downgrade. They're down though. But yeah, watch China names, too.

I feel like it's been quiet in China. We haven't heard much. AMD is going up. Opal on the high. See, circle still down. They scam the options. Fizzer. Uh, Amazon's running. All right, let's see. I haven't looked at the lawn term yet. That's it, bro. The lawn term. Oh, yeah. We got a new high, but it's going to go soon.

Yeah. So, yeah, new new alltime high on the long term, but I think we're about to ditch it. Let's see, guys. Let's see. Scary. CVS is choppy because again, they're related all the like pharma, healthc care stuff. And then they've had a lot of new cities on the high again. those banks, man. And then Starbucks.

Where's all these consumer plays? Actually, Pin Duo Duo now another China. Pepsi whole. Dude, Pepsi will not get out of that range. KB Homes, they were down. They had earnings. Alo, I haven't seen uranium yet. What about Bobo? Just had a Bradley Fris MU. All right. AMD still going again. A lot of chips there.

Dell as well. You're up over 1% on the NASDAQ. So, yeah, man. You're already at a certain level. This is crazy, bro. 6070. Holy [ __ ] So, yeah. So, like 6070 6072 and then 6086 and then 6100, bro. Or like 6099. Holy crap. Keep on banking. Yeah, they have their dividend payout soon. Remember Xivity?

Xdivy was a month ago and it didn't even move on X divvy. It was crazy. No news on JetBlue. It's probably all the airlines benefiting off lower oil. So like UAL's up three, four. Delta's up three and a half. That would probably most likely be it, but I don't think there's any individual news or I could have missed it.

Bank of England. Uh I Ramsden. I attach more weight to downside risk of inflation in the medium term. And then Ethereum on the high. I bit Amazon, bro. I've seen that all day. Athereum these little scammers. Air defense activated in northern Iranian bobsalor after explosions. So I don't know if the ceasefire is break but again they've been doing this literally since they announced it.

That is the crazy part. I don't think these are going to hit crowd. I did hear Donald using the f- word. We played it in the morning. pretty crazy. And then yeah, Powell should be live here in like what 20 minutes I think. And remember, we already got the pre-written statements. So keep that in mind.

You can't load the live stream. Is it possible to open Twitch? No. So, yeah. No, don't try to use that to get me to turn on the Twitch. QXO on the high. Tesla getting worked. What an exciting day, dude. Everything's up. So, get I mean, again, you did have a a very wild back and forth and then it's ultimately just led to oil getting cheaper now.

So, it's still elevated from a couple weeks ago. Circle starting to pop off. I think those premiums might go up once it goes up on the downside. Yeah, literally. But yeah, Circle's starting to move up. A couple of others. Where's Disney and Nike? I'm seeing premiums move there. Yeah, Disney's starting to wake up.

Circle just popped off. And then Tesla on the low. Aluminina on the low. They're kind of getting worked. Yeah, Uber has Whimo news. So Uber and Whimo self-driving in Atlanta launches today. Oh my Tesla. I knew a Tesla went from leader to hi. Google at VWAP. Palaner holding coin on the high too. So again, yeah, coin starting to wake up.

See, Robin Hood, Palant, what happened to HIMS from yesterday? Oh, they came back up a little bit. Uber. Yeah, Uber is partnered. Uber owns part of Whimo. Pretty sure you guys remember they like sold some of the steak and then they kept some of it, but I'm pretty sure Uber owns a part of Whimo. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I'm I'm pretty sure.

What? APO, Apollo Global. Who are they buying? What the [ __ ] So, again, a lot of the financials are up, but yeah, Apollo usually buys people and they're starting to run up. There's Circle, Reddit, High Ticker, Nvidia. Yeah, bro, you're kind of gassing right now. Yeah, Whimo is owned by Alphabet, but I'm pretty again I think Uber has a stake.

Yeah, bro. Gold is going or excuse me, Nvidia and every everything small caps, big caps, but a lot of big caps are running right now and you're getting that bid. So, kind of across the board, like I told you, uh you got like the 80s. So, you're this is already a baby level and then you'll go to like 86 to 82 to 86 and then the 90s and then we're back at 6,100, bro.

Which again, remember we talked about the dynamics of breakout or breakdown that this level is kind of important there on the upside. So, we will see. And then Tesla's giving it up meanwhile because they were the leader yesterday. Siri on the high. Hi, CRDO. Burlington, bro. You have everything. I'm seeing clothing.

I'm seeing food. Every you name it. So, let me get you the breakdown. What time? Oh, it's only been 15 minutes. So, you're going to have to give it a little bit. And then Nvidia's running there. So, you already got AMD and a couple of the other chips, Broadcom. But yeah, Nvidia is about to go to 150 147.

There's no ownership. No way. Well, I guess I was wrong. I thought they did. And then Sweet Greens is up 10. Oh, but yeah. So, I guess Whimo doesn't own any of it. They've just partnered several times. You started a long term depositing 500 a month. So, do you spread it across all stocks? Uh, I would start I'd pick a couple of names.

you know, you can spread it across like five names and buy a $100 a month of five different stocks, but then the problem is that you're not going to be able to grow the position uh like fast. So, I'd maybe focus on one or two to start with and then that way you like build around it and then you know once you see where things are then you could start kind of spreading it out a little bit thin.

But yeah, I wouldn't I wouldn't go for too many to start out. Okay, Circle's on the high. I thought the premiums were going to go up on the way up, but no, now they're just washing them, but yeah, Circle's already bounced 8%. From the bottom till July Apple and Perplexity. Yeah, didn't they say they wanted to get involved?

you like the idea of long-term for real estate, but stocks are doing well. I feel you. But, uh, let me put it into perspective. So, I did accept the offer for this property. And like I said, like worst case scenario, I think I could double the whole entire long-term worst case. But to get the same asset value of what I'm about to pull off, you know, God willing, I would need to 10x the long term almost.

So, you're right. Stocks buy and hold and let it sit there and all of that, but like I've given you guys the plan, you know, I want to show you guys how to become millionaires and how to get into high net worth and all of that. And that's why I'm saying, you know, we're about to turn $250,000 of equity into, you know, $2 million of property.

So, that that's already going to be 10x. Like I said, based on the estimate, we flip the property, we could double up our lawn term. Uh, other than that, you know, it chills there. So, yeah, we're trading up. That's that's genuinely the idea. I I like stocks, man. I like everything. and I like our lawn term, but I don't to to hit that 2 million mark, it would take a lot in the in the equity markets.

So, now we're going to use the real estate and then go back and forth renting. I you could rent if you want. If it's cheaper to rent where you're going to work, rent and then go buy a house somewhere cheaper and then use that as a rental. Don't live in it, but rent it out. And then that way, like I said, put the real estate, put the money to work.

Nvidia, bro. And then there's spy. But that's it, bro. That's all she wrote. I think it is there, my friends. Renting is 40% cheaper in Boston. Yeah, you get that a lot. Utilities on the high again. Amazon, that's a big cap runner. I feel like like usually when Amazon does a day like this, everything's pretty good.

You work for Altra? Oh, no way. That's dope, bro. You better get them stock options. You know what I'm saying? I think 6100 is in play. We might like go to 1699 and then, you know what I'm saying? And then we don't hit it. But otherwise, as long as you don't stop one point ahead of it, I I definitely think it's in play.

And then get ready. We got Powell in about 13 minutes, my friends. So, I'll try to get you the fastest feed. You should have kept to yourself. Why? No, bro. That's good. That's not That's not bad. I'm proud of you, man. Get your stock options, bro. Get your stock options. You know what I'm saying? Like that's how if you work at a company, especially a company we already invested in for the long term, bro.

I would take take advantage of those stock options. And then yeah, uh rent. If you really want and you got money like that and you're like, if I could save money renting in Scottsdale, go rent in Scottsdale. live in a good place that you know raises your utility and enjoyment and then go buy a house in a cheap part of Arizona or go buy a house a cheap one in in Indiana or Ohio.

coin on the high now. Amazon, that's all she wrote, bro. And then MSTR me message from Trump. Rut tells him Europe is going to pay in a big way as they should and it will be his win. Huh. And then Reddit, Cororeweave, Amazon, Coin. Uh, dude, it's kind of crazy cuz the high ticker is pretty active on both sides.

3M popping now. You don't find cheap houses in MI. No, they're cheap. There is cheap houses everywhere. I can't again there's are they some of them overpriced and are they going for way more than where they were at? Yes. But this concept of like, you know, sub 300,000, sub100, $200,000 homes in America, it's real.

That's like, again, most of you, you probably don't want to live there, but at the end of the day, this this it's real and they exist. So even the property I'm about to do right now, like it's actually crazy. Uh because uh yeah, that's it. It's nuts. Like it's it's cheap. I'm buying I'm about to go buy a [ __ ] ranch in California, you know.

And it's not for what it is. You there's there's cheaper prices. I'm telling you, it's not. You just got to look a little bit and and find them. How can you turn 250 into 2 million in real estate? That sounds far off. Uh that shouldn't be too far off. Uh you know, let me ask you this. What's 10% of uh $2 million?

So, we'll start with that. But that's not too untypical. 10% down. Uh we're actually going to be doing it a little different and I'm the propertyy's appraised more than what we're paying for it. But yeah, so it's about 10 15% down. That's very typical especially for like a trader loan. And if you're doing a loan that's not a conventional with like a Wells Fargo bank, very very typical.

So actually it's a better terms than my other one. The other one that I did where I sold the crypto, I put down half a million for uh $3 million. That was a little bit more. So now we're putting down half and getting getting a little bit more. Okay, you're getting a couple of reds here. Couple of biotechs move in.

There's Hood at the high 52. White House adviser will see a sequence of trade deals around July 4th. Microsoft will conduct another m round of major layoffs in Xbox next week. And then Energy Secretary Wright emergency order to secure southeast power grid amid heat wave. you can only do no income mortgage.

I don't know what you mean by that. Uh but yeah, like but everybody could do what I'm doing. That's why I'm doing it to highlight that. So the type everything I'm doing is everybody who has a long-term if you saved money and deposited every month to the long-term you should qualify for the exact loan that I'm getting.

So it doesn't matter. All you need is the 10 15% and then you will be responsible for the mortgage payment. So ideally you guys want to buy houses that are already rented if you can't afford the mortgage payment or you want to buy a house that is similar to your current rent so that your mortgage payment is what you were spending anyways.

Pizza pizza chilling. Futu on the high fizzer did not go up. Gio, am I using the long-term deposits? No, I'm just going to rent either rent out the property or find a way to make money out of it, whether with the Chad, through the Chad, or through animals. Again, I mean, there's a lot of land, so I think we're going to have multiple ways to monetize it.

But yeah, and then I'm just going to go back to saving my 10%. And then now we turned uh 250 into a property. And then the smaller account's not being touched. So again, remember you guys, I made the small that this was the original YouTube account. We made the big one cuz you guys wanted to see it bigger.

Uh but at the end of the day, uh I'm not touching the small account. This one that we started with $500, did the two 300 a month. So now it's at 30 or just under it. But yeah, we're not. This one's not even going to be touched in all of it. So that's why just using the big account, I think that one grew there.

And like I'm saying, it's a good idea. There's some good value and I I think you guys will be pleasantly surprised. Uh dude, coin is going insane. Up six and a half. So watch. Circle's probably going to go. I mean, there was uh who else? Circle MSTR. There was stable coin news, but the one with the stable coin news is down, believe it or not.

Uh, Fizzerve, but yeah, Coinbase kind of just launched, bro. 15 bucks. Yeah, there's there's a lot of demand. And remember, beginning of July, NASDAQ seasonality gets positive. You guys don't remember 2023. Remember that was when I closed my short that one time because again, NASDAQ July does get exciting.

Do not despise the days of small beginnings. Amen. And for the Lord rejoices to see the work begin. Woo. And then SMR nuclear. Now there's Nibbus. Now Cororeweave. Spy came down though, believe it or not. And then we have Powell in five minutes, my friends. Powell in five minutes. Long term is where is Dude, this is crazy, bro.

It's crazy. The long term, bro. I'm glad, man. God willing. Uh, I hope we could take it to the next level and let's see where this goes, man. And I I hope you guys have good info and I hope you're going to learn and see it. And I I that's it, bro. I'm And I I pray that we get a lot more property for all of you guys.

And I hope all I I I can't wait, bro. I see it already. It's not in the physical world yet, but I I know, man. There's a lot of land owners in here, and you guys are destined to own the land, baby. So, I look forward to you guys doing it and you know and I I really hope this whole process from every day buying one share, two shares, saving month after month, year over year, you're about to watch it turn into something else, man.

And it took time. Uh, you know, a lot of people even [ __ ] on me for a cult compound, but I'm very grateful with how this plays out because this was patience. This took time. It wasn't just given. It was earned. and you had to you had to build it and you had to really give a lot into it and let it grow and all of that.

So now wherever it leads to, it's going to be good, man. But like I'm saying, uh just above all else, this should be a symbol of you guys getting a property. You know what I'm saying, bro? Your lawn term and your savings, like we said, it's possible your down payment that your lawn term is real, bro.

500 bucks to 30 grand. Uh you know what I'm saying? Doesn't matter how much money you make, bro. You are faithful. you save it, we're going to get you a house. So maybe Bill PTE will help us out. But at the end of the day, man, that's I I I'm very very excited for that. And I hope all of you continue to to aim and aspire for your home.

Whether it's your first one or not, it's it's possible. So let's get it, baby. Let's get it. Well, yeah, the bad part is the upkeep. Well, I talked about it yesterday and then Spy is coming back down. Kweb on the high though. So look, even though we're holding, you're still holding 1%. Meanwhile, China's ripping.

So maybe we're going to get a little emerging markets balancing out. So yeah, but yeah, cuz like a lot cuz remember I told you guys the idea. I was like, I might rent it out to the Chad. I said, oh, we need to generate money off of it. But then I thought about it last night and I said, "Fuck that." I said, "Y'all want to come here?

You're going to work on the property." Y'all like, "Oh, it takes a lot of maintenance." I know. That's why we have a cult. So, yeah. No one You can't rent the property unless you're going to wake up every morning at 3:00 a.m. and you got to go through Yosh Answers boot camp. So, you have to dig a hole before trading.

You got to dig your hole to build character and then you got to till the land. And then you could go to the trading floor and trade throughout the day and then afterwards you'll be required to work out. You have to consume protein. Uh-huh. Yeah, bro. That's why I thought about it. Tell me that's not a good idea, though.

Yeah. You got I'm going to put y'all to work, bro. Y'all thought it was going to be a fun cult compound. No, we're going to develop character. Uh-huh. Mhm. It's going to be beautiful. Okay. Robin Hood. Robin Hood and then Robin energy. Look at Robin Hood. You see that? That's crazy. I don't think you'll ever see this again.

52 week highs. Robin Hood. Oh, wow. That's amazing. I'm saving that. I love it. Robin Hood coin. Dude, that's disgusting. Yeah, bro. Coinbase is up 10% right now almost. Is it? Yeah, right. What is the IPO price? This highest it's been all year. I think so, man. Holy [ __ ] So again, there's been a lot of developments, the banks, stable coins, all of that.

And then SPY just flipped already. The odd part is China going up on all of this. So let's see how this plays. Coin Wheeler. I think crypto players are going to just take off. Bonds near the low. And then again, you're going to have your boy Powell should be on any second now, actually. What the [ __ ] is this?

I got a video of NATO. I hope it's not at No, this is supposed to be in front of Congress. Again, you have already gotten uh Jerome Powell's pre-written statements. Okay, I hope you guys are aware of that because he's gonna come on, he's gonna give this little statement, they're going to do the intro, then they're going to explain the process and then everyone's going to tell me to shut up while I'm talking while he's talking.

But I'm like, dude, none of this is new. You see what I'm saying? And then after the first like 10, 15 minutes, then you'll get into the real questions. Conference board expectations 69. Sorry. I'll say a few words and then gift to you. I just thank you so much. This is a wrong feed. It was a pleasure to host to see you.

Pleasure. So yeah, where are we? Conference board uh came in 93 verse 99.8. So consumer confidence kind of plummeted. Uh I think conference board was actually high all year, believe it or not. But yeah, that data just came in. No good, habibi. No good. But then again, bonds like it. Maybe the market will.

So, we'll see a couple other small caps. DraftKings, China, and then chips. AMD on the high. Richmond manufacturing minus 7 - 10. Mhm. All right. Oh, we got Pow Pow. All right. All right. I got I got a visual. I have He looks weird at that angle, bro. Is that Powell? He looks different, bro. His side profile is very different.

You know that that didn't look like him for a little bit. Very interesting. I'm used to looking at him straight forward. You know what I'm saying? We don't usually see his profile. Fascinating. Are you kidding me? Jerome Pal. That's not him. Yo, Nib is painting the high. Is this like the final form of Mark Cuban's glasses or something?

What is it? I have no idea what I'm looking at, bro. All right. Well, get ready. This is It should be beginning. It's already 7:02. They should order. We now call interession. I'm waiting for That's what That's how it should start. Kweb's still going. Order. Well, SP is going to be near the load to start it off.

Well, no. I think some people are going to support him and not they are going to bring up the war stuff and ask him, but otherwise this is going to be a nothing burger. You guys, I'm not expecting him to say much. Even through, if you already read the pre-written statement from Jerome, he literally is saying nothing.

So, he's not trying to change his opinion. You just heard from Powell. You do have a a global conflict that has developed recently, but other than that, bro, it's not Yeah, it's not going to be anything. Tesla's flushing order. Yeah, wait for the questions, but I'm even then I'll call it out if there's a question that could lead to a big answer.

Objection chairs all this is what I'm saying. They're right now. Everyone would tell me to shut up if they're inexperienced because what's happening, they're going to do the intro. Then Powell is going to read from a piece of paper which we already read this morning at 4:00 a.m. and then then it gets into the questions and that will all be fresh and new.

That's when this is really going to start. So, we'll see. But you can hear it in the meantime. But just be prepared. I wouldn't expect much. Don't be too jumpy. You might get a couple of inflection points, but I would just watch the general levels that we've been playing already. But you never know.

If he does say something, we will be here. However, the facts tell a different story. Four months into the Trump administration, American workers and taxpayers are already benefiting from a strong, resilient economy. The Fed noted that growth is solid and even former Fed officials have dismissed the idea of a recession this year or is near.

Compare that to the previous administration. Under President Biden, Americans endured the highest inflation rates in decades driven by reckless spending and misguided policy decisions. Now, under the Trump administration, inflation has declined to levels lower than those seen before. President Biden's flawed watch.

Everybody is just asking about tariffs and all that [ __ ] bro. China's been mad quiet for a while, and they're just running all day today. Keep an eye on China, you guys. Necessary to secure more open markets for American goods and services. But that uncertainty is not without a strategy. a strategy of balanced lower regulatory costs, progrowth tax policy, and controls on federal spending, all combined with trade successes offer economic opportunity.

One Fed official, Governor Waller, has outlined a bal how a balanced approach combining potential tax rates with targeted tariffs could foster strong economic growth. Let me clear be clear on that. We can fight to open markets, break down non-tariff barriers while achieving solid economic growth at the same time.

That's President Trump's goal, just as it was for President Reagan in the 1980s. I also want to commend you, Mr. Chairman, the F Federal Reserve for taking positive steps to keep politics out of the Fed, including disbanding four internal climate, including cutting a month before the election leaner and more efficient by rightsizing your workforce across the system.

These moves reflect a commitment to efficiency at the federal micron too. I'm also pleased that Governor Mickey Bowman has been confirmed as vice chair for supervision at the board. Governor Bowman has been a tireless advocate for community banks and this committee is eager to work with her on policies that enhance our bank's ability to provide greater access to capital and services for our families and businesses across our nation.

I look forward to today's hearing and I yield back the balance of my time. I'll now recognize the Mr. Foster on behalf of the ranking member for four minutes for an opening statement. Uh thank you and I will save everyone a little bit of time of ranking member Waters was unavailable unavoidably detained.

I'll just JD Vance if Peter the never invested on their confidence economy probably the simplest my bad still the intro US dollar is down roughly 10%. Okay, this is not a small thing and it is uh has caused countries around the world to question the primacy going forward. This is one of the worst uh market responses I think and world popping chaos.

But yeah, dollar's coming down uh the tariffs that are very destructive to international trade and um just everything that that uh you know the markets are seeing and trying to suffer through. I know I'm contacted all the time by businesses in my district manufacturing trying to find the channel for two months thinking about my guy it's literally YouTube.comtheck anyway there's a long set of things talking about some time and let's get to it yield back gentleman yields back policy treasury market resilience and economic prosperity Mr.

Lucas for one minute for an opening statement thank you Mr. Chairman, today's hearing will allow us to evaluate the state of the economy and review the FMO FOMC's policy decisions. It's appropriate to regularly take a step back and assess the central bank's performance and its responsiveness to the economic constituents our constituents face back home.

This hearing is particularly timely. Well, if it is difficult, just remember you guys can always go to YouTube.com the stock market and I will be here will have a profound effect on the lives of Americas market resilience and economic prosperity. They're going pretty quick honestly. They're already at the third guy for the intro, but you haven't got one special attention.

Yeah, something's going on and ESLR on the Treasury market. So, Swiss Frank and Yen are dropping, but you could see it in the dollar, you guys. And I hope we'll see meaningful action soon. Chairman pal, thank you. What the [ __ ] is happening? Critically important that Congress, bro, currencies are going nuts.

Transparency, accountability. So, now you're getting a stick on the market, too. Something's happening. Yes, I look forward to your testimony. Trump get the big beautiful bill to my desk ASAP. Y back, Mr. Chairman. Gentlemen, yield back. I see something ringing me ago. No, look at the currencies though.

That's not You haven't seen that in a minute. Thank you very much, Mr. Chairman and ranking member. And thank you for your years of public service and for being here today. Since 1977, the Fed has been tasked by Okay, so Trump social, now that we have made peace abroad, we must finish the job at home by passing the great big beautiful bill and getting the bill to my desk ASAP.

Be a historic present, the great people of the United States of America as we begin the celebration of our 250th birthday. We're finally entering our golden age uh which will bring unprecedented safety, security, and prosperity for all our citizens. To my friends in Senate, lock yourself in a room if you must.

Don't go home and get this deal done this week. work with the house so they could pick it up and pass it immediately. No one goes on vacation until it's done. Everyone must most importantly the American people will be much better off thanks to this. Yeah, that can't be the currency move though. I I I see the sentiment but yeah, honorable Jerome Pal.

I'm telling you that yen Swiss Frank move everything even the pound and euro are moving to be with us. You'll be recognized for 5 minutes to give an oral presentation of your written testimony. And without objection, your written testimony will be made part of the record. You're now recognized for five minutes.

Okay. So, this is the pre-written. Thank you, Chairman Hill. Ranking member. Thank you. Uh, and other members of the committee. It's great to be back here today. I appreciate the opportunity to present the federal Well, watch TT if the yen keeps going, but I don't like that dollar move. Federal seen stay high with dollar lows.

of unemployment and stable prices for the benefit of the American people. Despite elevated uncertainty, the economy is in a solid position. Unemployment rate remains low and the labor market is at or near maximum employment. Inflation has come down a great deal but has been running somewhat above our 2% longer run objective.

We are attentive to to the risks on both sides of our dual mandate. Yeah, high ticket short-term situation before turning to monetary policy. Watch the you already heard everything pal said it's already in writing following growth of 2.5% last year. GDP was reported to have edged down in the first quarter reflecting swings in net exports that were driven by businesses bringing in imports ahead of potential tariffs.

This unusual swing has complicated GDP measurement. Private domestic final purchases or PDFP uh which excludes net exports, inventory investment and government spending grew at a solid 2.5% rate. Within PDFP, growth of consumer spending moderated while investment in equipment and intangibles rebounded from weakness in the fourth quarter.

Surveys of households and businesses, however, report a decline in settlement sentiment in recent months and elevated uncertainty about the economic outlook, largely reflecting trade policy concerns. It remains to be seen how these developments might affect future spending and investment. In the labor market, conditions have remained solid.

Payroll job gains averaged a moderate 224,000 per month in the first five months of the year. The unemployment rate at 4.2% 2% in May remains low and has stayed in a narrow range for the past year. Wage growth has continued to moderate while still outpacing inflation. Overall, a wide set of indicators suggest that conditions in the labor market are broadly in balance and consistent with maximum employ significant inflationary pressures.

What? The strong labor market conditions in recent years have helped narrow long-standing disparities in employment and earnings across demographic groups. Inflation has eased significantly from its highs in mid 2022, but remains somewhat elevated relative to our 2% longerrun goal. Estimates based on the consumer price index and other data indicate that total personal consumption expens expenditures or PCE prices rose 2.3% over the 12 months ending in May and that excluding the volatile food and energy categories core PCE prices rose 2.6%.

Near-term measures of inflation expectations have moved up over recent months as reflected in both market and survey based measures. Respondents to surveys of consumers, businesses, and professional forecasters point to tariffs as the driving factor. Beyond the next year or so, however, most measures of longerterm expectations remain consistent with our 2% inflation goal.

Our monetary policy actions are guided by our dual mandate to promote maximum employment and stable prices for the American people. With the labor market at or near maximum employment and inflation remaining somewhat elevated, the federal market has maintained the target range at 4 and a quart since the beginning of the year continued to reduce our holdings of Treasury and agency mortgage back securities and beginning in April further slowed the pace of this decline to facilitate a smooth transition to ample reserve balances.

We'll continue to determine the appropriate stance of monetary policy based on the incoming data, the evolving outlook and the balance of risks. Policy changes continue to evolve and their effects on the economy remain uncertain. The effects of tariffs will depend, among other things, on their ultimate level.

Expectations of that level and thus of the related economic effects reached a peak in April and have since declined. Even so, increases in tariffs this year are likely to push up price uh prices and weigh on economic activity. The effects on inflation could be shortlived, reflecting a one-time shift in the price level.

It's also possible that the inflationary effects could instead be more persistent. Avoiding that would depend on the size of the tariff effects, on how long it takes for them to pass through fully into prices, and ultimately on keeping longer run longer term inflation expectations well anchored. Our obligation is to keep longerterm inflation expectations well anchored and to prevent a one-time increase in the price level from becoming an ongoing inflation problem.

As we act to meet that obligation, we will balance our maximum employment and price stability mandates, keeping in mind that without price stability, we cannot achieve the long periods of strong labor market conditions that benefit all Americans. For the time being, where we are well positioned to wait to learn more about the likely course of the economy before considering any adjustments to our policy stance.

To conclude, we understand that our actions affect communities, families, and it's about the country. Everything we do is in service to our public mission. We at the Fed will do everything we can to achieve our maximum employment and price stability goals. Thank you. I look forward to your questions.

Thank you, Mr. Chairman. We'll now turn to member questions. I recognize myself for five minutes for questions. Over the past few weeks, our Democratic colleagues have suggested the following after the initial release of the GDP report. The president is driving the economy into a recession. Chairman Pal, the latest FOMC statement described economic activity have to continue to expand at a solid pace and you just reiterated that in your testimony this morning.

In your view, is the term recession and the economy growing at a solid pace? Are those synonymous with each other? I would say no. And you you note that the labor market continues strong. the economies at a standard pace and you also referenced in your testimony that that first quarter GDP initial react was also from front-end loading as you noted imports to try to avoid tariff impacts.

Also, I looked at the Atlanta Fed GDP now model which forecast GDP growth for the second quarter of this year at nearly 4% with core GDP forecast at 2%. Does that Atlanta model suggest a recession to you? Uh, no. I would say it doesn't. So, uh, looking at the long AMD still today and then the ones that Intel March and in April, um, I was looking back at uh, a Fed study that noted that up until March, tariffs have already been partially passed through in consumer prices, leading to a contribution of merely onetenth percentage point increase in core PCE prices.

and a Harvard study last week showed that prices have only modestly adjusted since the announcement of tariffs. Finally, the longer term inflation expectations remain consistent with the 2% goal. Governor Waller laid out a pathway that allows for rate cuts provided that average effective tariff rates remain close to 10% or I assume he means 10% or lower.

The labor market remains solid. Prices continue to disinflate. So given that data I've outlined, I'm sure data that you're very familiar with, um, for the economy to avoid persistent inflation, do you concur with Governor Waller that there is a pathway for good news as it relates to the regulatory policies, the tax policies that I've discussed in a world with lower tariff rates.

So, first I I wouldn't comment on any other FOMC uh members comments one way or the other, but I I will say this for the ones you just heard. I think many paths are are possible here and certainly the one you you mentioned is is a possible one. We could see inflation come in not as strong as we expect.

Um and if that were the case, that would tend to to suggest cutting sooner. We could see the labor market come in not as strong as we expect. Um, and if that were the case, that would tend to to suggest cutting sooner. We could see the labor market uh weakening and that would also uh, you know, suggest cutting sooner.

On the other hand, if we see inflation coming in higher or if the labor market were to uh to remain strong, then we would probably be moving later. So, I think a range of possible paths are possible and certainly the one you mentioned. We might pay taxes. you guys [ __ ] I'm doing I'm calculating the long term if we need to get the money, but we only have like 28 grand in losses.

So, a couple weeks ago, the losses were a little higher at work, but now we have way more gains. So, I I got to finesse it. [ __ ] You know, you got to find a way to get the down payment and net out the gains and losses. You have commented on this idea of tariffs being set by the executive branch. So, is are tariffs in your lane, but a huge fiscal spending by the Biden administration, not in your lane?

Explain to the committee why you chose to be silent in February of 21, but outspoken this spring. Sure. So, we we haven't commented. It would be inappropriate for us to comment on the policy of tariffs. We don't have a view. It's not our job. Um, and we just wouldn't do that ju just as we wouldn't comment on on the reconciliation package that you're working on right now.

We're not commenting on tariffs. So what our job is is inflation, keeping inflation under control and and also keeping maximum employment. And when policies have what appear to be short, you know, short and medium-term implications, meaningful implications for that, then then they kind of not the policies themselves, but the inflation becomes our job.

Yeah. You know, my views on price stability, I think it's a first among equals uh in your dual mandate. I've argued for that. I've introduced legislation to make the dual mandate Yeah, you're ripping up a little bit. a soul mandate and we've talked about that before but I was very curious hammock making comments too former president of the Cleveland blank uh Cleveland bank uh Loretta Meester's quote that I read from last fall she says I think that maximum employment is the maximum level of employment consistent with price stability in other words she elegantly ties that together that price stability is what you can have more control over rather than you know all these other factors that enter the employment picture like legislative and executive branch.

What's your thought about her quote? I personally think that's a very reasonable way to think about it. Thank you very much. I yield back. The gentleman from New York is recognized for five minutes. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Uh good morning, Mr. Chair, uh Chair Powell, and thank you for being here. Uh last week the FOMC decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at four and a quarter to 4 and a half%.

While I was not surprised by the decision to hold rates steady, I was surprised by the committee's revised forecast since March which represented a decrease of okay Uber again JP Morgan 52 week high for core PCE and an uptick in the unemployment rate. Yeah, I think she's the one miss Velasquez remember last time.

Can you explain the incoming data that the committee has seen since March that caused it to make these adjustments? Sure. So, um first of all, these are individual this is not a committee forecast. These are just individuals submitting their own personal uh uh you know forecasts and and you know we don't bless those as a committee but um I think people are looking at the incoming data and having a range of different judgments.

If you look at the range, if you look at the uh the central tendency, you'll see that it covers quite a wide range. Those are the medians that you're talking about. I think so inflation is projected to have moved up because of what we've seen particularly from tariffs. And I think if you look at other other outside forecasters, you'll see very much the same thing.

And what data are you looking for? Well, we look at the incoming data on uh we look we look at at our own forecast and we ask ourselves what's likely to happen. You know, monetary policy has to be forward-looking. A forecast is a prediction of what's going to happen in the future. Thank you. In its statement, the committee announced that it will continue to monitor the implications of incoming data and adjust the stand of monetary policy as appropriate.

Some analysts predict two rate cuts by the end of the year are still on the table. Is this a fair and accurate assumption and what incoming data will the committee need to see to consider this class? What what will what will actually happen with rates is going to depend on the path of the economy and that's highly uncertain.

So I I would just say what that what that means at at this moment in time is that um a significant majority of the committee but also there's a there's a pretty significant agree but a significant majority feels four that's my pizza position. What that means is that okay each of those persons the high tick are going crazy but then Tesla dropping and slide tweaking later this year they think that there's some uh state of the world where inflation doesn't prove to be as high or the labor market weakens where or some combination of those two things that it will turn out to be more likely than not appropriate to reduce policy rates subject to great uncertain we will you know the story has been evolving and and our thinking Tesla is getting worked right now again Boeing stopped dollar Still going down though.

That little currency thing. Iranian president says Iran will not violate ceasefire unless Israel does. Tentatively rich in the Middle East. The situation still has the potential to open global and energy markets. Especially if the ceasefire is broken. While at this point Iran is seen as unlikely to close the straight of Hormus.

That decision could change. How is the Fed assessing the current situation and incorporating those assessment at is as it considers future adjustment to economic uh projections and it stand on monetary monetary policy. I think it's too early to to know what any implic economic implications might be and I would not want to speculate like everyone else.

We are of course watching the situation. Thank you. And chair Powell, after reviewing the economic data following uh the meeting last week, it seems to me that the committee is indicating that we could be headed for a situation where inflation accelerates while unemployment rises and growth become more sluggish.

In this scenario, this will put the Fed's dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability in tension with one another. in this scenario, how does the Fed balance these priorities in order to achieve both mandates? Let me say that we're not facing that right now and and that isn't really our forecast that we will face such an issue in a serious way.

But if if that does happen, then what we do is we look at the two goals and we see which one of them is farther from its goal. App still is is maximum employment or price stability farther from its goal and we prefer the one that's farther than its goal. And then we also ask ourselves how quickly will they return to goal.

It's a very difficult situation for for any central bank and you know I would say again we're not we're not in that situation right now. Thank you Mr. Chairman. Y back the gentleman's time is expired. The vice chairman of the full committee of Michigan is recognized for five minutes. Thank you chair Hill and chair dream.

Um I got a lot to cover so we're going to try and keep this concise. Uh but following up a bit on what chair Hill had been talking about um you know you had said in January 29 2025 quote we don't know what will happen with tariffs with immigration with fiscal policy and with regulatory policy we I would add energy into that by the way we need to let those policies be articulated before we can even begin to make a plausible assessment of what their implications for the economy will be.

This is no different than any set of policy changes at the beginning of the administration. However, December 18 of 2024 at the FOMC press conference, you noted, and I'm paraphrasing, that some Federal Reserve officials began to incorporate preliminary conditional estimates of how fiscal policies might impact the economy into their forecasts.

Uh, this seems inconsistent and and I I sidebar with the with the chair to say, okay, did I hear this correctly? His question and sort of your answer. What I heard is that there was a belief that the IRA would not be inflationary but that tariffs could be therefore uh suddenly you and others were commenting on on tariffs and uh for the institution.

I I know you try to be consensus driven. um why are there FOMC participants making fiscal policy assumptions into their forecasting when you yourself said that fiscal policies need to be articulated before the FOMC can make a plausible assessment into their implications uh what those will be and and I think if there's different participants having different assumptions that would render the uh the sept some there is a NATO meeting but there's no headline meaningless useless less yeah there's spy now dropping I don't know what's going on with currency it's very odd.

Could be some of the Iran stuff or something else. But yeah, the currencies all ever since you called it out, it's like unreal. Like look at the Swiss Frank. Look at the yen, the pound. Even oil's dropping now. But like look, euro is just rocking. Great question that really when the summary of economic projections was originally designed and put into effect uh in this way the way it works is that individuals are free to make whatever assumptions they want and they do disclose them they they'll they disclose them in their in their speeches and things like that.

So there will be situations where some people incorporate something and and others don't and we you know that's that's we try to be transparent about that but that is go to the bathroom. Good luck. Watch those currencies. Yeah. Euro is the highest since October 21 right now. This is a breakout in the euro if you guys remember breakout on the pound too.

So very something's going on in currency land. That's probably going to be your move man. So watch out for that. Wherever those go you you'll follow eventually if it keeps going at that pace. I I guess the opakeness of the Fed has been something over the arc of my 15 years on this committee has been one that has been debated greatly, including uh uh auditing the Fed and a number of other uh things that have gone on.

Um I I I've got here a brief moment. I I do feel like I need to touch on interest rates. I not to be a shock. You asked how the family business was doing back in Michigan. Uh families involved in uh sand and gravel and aggregates and construction and things like that. It's uh it's been strong. Um we need more labor.

We need a few other things on that what's happening. Uh but I I mean I think there's no recession that's been that's been established. Uh there's no hyperinflation or certainly not as what some have been projecting. Uh yet there seems to be higher than expected or certainly desired interest rates for for many of us.

And um and and I'm curious uh how high interest rates they hurt Americans who are paying car loans, credit cards, mortgages. Uh just this morning you had FHA uh FA Director PY asking for lower interest rates, which would obviously impact home buyers as well. Um, so what is it that's keeping in your mind the the Fed from what many of us believe is the right thing to do, which is to lower some interest rates and by the way match what the Bank of Canada, Bank of England, the European Central Bank, the Swiss Central Bank, a number of emerging central banks, by the way, that's your own assessment on page 33 uh as where you're uh where you're laying that out.

Why aren't we doing what the rest of the world is doing? Is it because we're at full employment? Is it because of those tariffs concerns that you said weren't part of part of the analysis? Was it energy, groceries, durable goods? Why? So, um, the you're right that if you just look in the rearview mirror and look at the existing data that we've seen, you can make a good argument that that would call for us to be at a neutral level, which would be, you know, a couple of cuts or maybe more kind of thing.

The reason we're not is the forecast in the by all all professional forecasters that I know of on the outside and the Fed do expect a meaningful increase in inflation over the course of this year. When I said we weren't going to talk about uh tariffs and inflation that was that was to and the same people when they issued $4 trillion also said that inflation will not go up so he could keep rates at zero.

That's our problem sir. We don't trust these people. Is that Do you guys get it? Thank you so much, Mr. Chair. Mr. Powell, we don't trust you. That's the point. We get what they're saying, but you guys, last time 4 trillion dollars. Y'all said it's coming down. And y'all said, "Don't worry. It's We're so confident it's coming down.

We're going to keep rates at zero. Do you see the dilemma?" That had experienced some sort of eviction during their lifetime. Um, so that's like 50% of black women in the two two largest county, Wayne County and Oakland County in Michigan. Miracle. And these numbers are horrific. Um, as you know, were you aware of that?

No, I was not. And you know, evictions are often very traumatic experience, but also it it creates a cycle of poverty, but also this instability for many families. Um but especially when it comes to a lot of our uh black neighbors, the access to equity, the access to housing, city and banks again too and then spies about to get back up to the higher level.

Remember anything above here is still breakout, new advance, new high bonds are just following along with the yen. I am worried about the currencies but for now market dodging it. See if the dollar could get back up. factors at play and you know this chairman high mortgage rates the finance rates and so forth uh the uh that drag the supply of new housing but last month new housing hit a 5-year low.

Are you familiar with that? I'm not sure exactly what statistic you are referring to. Okay. I don't know. There was um there was all this uh articles about chips impacted tariffs and so forth and they said again it hit a five-year low and again I'm getting this from a source but this sets the market up for higher inflation uh and more burdensome housing costs um to years to come.

So, Chairman Pal, you know, I'm I'm looking at this monetary monetary uh whatever policy framework that you guys have put together. Um do you think that the way it's structured Intel more chips everything small cap shitty chips to big chips unity high ticker is almost fully gassed. The spy is not moving, but you're getting something.

You might get the breakout move. We got Euro close actually in an hour. So, let me get you a breakdown. I think there are two things going on quickly. One is just there's a longer run shortage of housing in the United States. Dow 23 green 7 red. NASDAQ 81 green 20 red. SPY 357 green 144 red. That's going to weigh on housing activity.

But the best thing we can do for the housing market, the absolute best thing is to restore price stability. What the [ __ ] does that mean? Lower the rate. But don't you think that the restrictive monetary policy of what we're going to fix it with price stability? Just saying [ __ ] that sounds smart.

the supply. No, no. Lower the rates so we could sell our houses and not have to worry about paying triple in interest. You know that, bro? I'm buying a good deal of a house. And the [ __ ] the interest rate is higher than [ __ ] the Babylonians. What is this, Jerome? We spend more to fund you and Janet Yellen's [ __ ] decisions than the entire military of the United States of America, including every single freedom dorito.

Women that the study will not be our policy will not be a driver. Well, we're going to fix it with price stability. What? Let me ask you, what is the difference? And honestly, I want to learn here and and I'm sure people listening to this want to learn. What is the difference between demand driven rent inflation and supply driven rent inflation?

Like you you you guys use these terminologies. What is that? How do I communicate that to the public? What is the difference between supply driven versus demand driven rent? You know, those are those are not terms that we that we use particularly often. What's supply driven uh formula? That would mean you know that that that there's not enough supply to meet demand.

But at the same time, it also means there's more demand than there is supply. Trust me. Answers will make sense when you don't have to read your question. But as I said again, we our policies will not affect in the long run in the long run their demand or supply. I'm being serious, y'all. We're talking about a housing crisis that is getting worse right now because we're not paying attention to future instability rates.

I'm surprised that it didn't go, but literally every single 30 second, 1 minute, 5 minute, it's still elevated, but SPY's not moving. Na, that was the Bitcoin one today. Is now being impacted by the current framework that you're putting together that I do feel like it's going to be long-term effects on the housing crisis and you're ignoring it.

No, we're not actually. We think the very best thing we can do is to fully restore price stability at the end and bud and for homeowners and for the house in the long run that is the single thing to do. But you see where I'm coming from. It is impacting future supply of housing, right? Not in the long run.

No. Okay. Mr. I sadly I agree with her at that last one. Mr. Style who's also the chair of our say that the rates do not impact. He's looking at it like a [ __ ] economist. Chairman Hill, thank you. Acting like a lawyer being with us today. I want to dive into two actions the Fed's recently taken to get a little additional color on yesterday.

Uh the Fed announced that reputational risk would no longer be a component in bank exams. I'm just saying anytime though if any of you ever get into a fight with your significant other, like especially like a major fight and she's like, "What are you going to do? How are you going to fix this? All you got to tell her is we're going to do it by achieving price stability and that should answer her her dilemma.

The decision of the Fed yesterday. I'm not aware of any new uh information. No, we just we just think it's the right thing to do and of course made an announcement on Monday under Governor Bowman's Vice Chair Bowman's leadership. Why would it not have been done if it's the right thing to do? DJT on the high.

But what's even better than that? Bradley Frile in the peach baby. So, some of you who are new, you're not used to this. You better watch your ears. Oh, that's amazing. That's a symbol right there. It's more symbolic than a retaliatory attack by Iran. That's Bradley Frile in the Peach, baby. Better get your ass.

I'm standing up now. 24 came to the view that this was a serious problem that we need to address. And and we've said that publicly. My wife heard that and said, "Don't even think about it." Cuz she she heard that. I'm correct. app. She knows it'll work. That's why she doesn't want you to do it. So, I agree with her.

But if worse comes to worse, you just tell her we have to achieve price stability. Okay? And if she doesn't understand, refer her to the Federal Reserve by the Fed activities supervision program um was ended and withdrew several statements on digital asset related uh risks. Oh, DJ bank involvement. announced the buyback yesterday about Senate work to regulate stable coin in particular a real opportunity to dollarize the globe and be a significant purchaser coin still going 3% it could be something that's big identifiable shift uh in banks or other regulated entities as it relates to engagement in the digital asset space you know I wouldn't be the one to be to be picking that up first but what what I do see is a a very significant and change in the tone and it you know it really does reflect evolving thinking and and the evolving status of the crypto industry and uh I would expect over time we'll see more activity how mobile and Oracle watch if mobile goes crazy keep an eye on Intel then SFM sprouts on the low our view see if staples go down who their customers are that's not that's not our decision and um so banks are free to provide banking services to uh crypto the crypto industry to crypto companies and bank banks are also free to conduct crypto activities as long as they do so in a way that is you know protective of safety and soundness.

Thank you very much. Let let me shift gears because I want to give you just a little bit of an opportunity to comment uh on on on the housing uh sector once again but give you a little funny housing has came up a lot. They might you might hear about that. They usually do not bring up housing like this and do you guys realize like housing on the CPI has been helping you out?

It's been going down. So, some people think housing disinflation would balance out goods inflation based on tariffs, but very odd. I don't know. We've listened to a lot of these. They don't usually come out the gate swinging about housing this many times. Like, so we've heard about housing already in the first 20 minutes of this a lot more than any of the other ones.

In terms of inflation, uh we we look at something called owner's equivalent rent and rentals and and that's meant to capture both rented housing and owned housing and it's been very sticky. You know, it's been one of the one of the stickiest parts of inflation. I'm happy to say now it actually is coming down quite regularly.

That's very good news. That's been the part really it's been the service inflation that's been stickier than than other parts of inflation. So that's good news for people. I think it is showing through into measured inflation now. Again, in the long run, the best thing we can do is restore price stability and let the market work.

Even then though, we're still going to have a housing shortage. Do can you pro what what data do you think is leading to to the reduction of that the the rent equivalent? I just think it took time. So, the the thought is um when you would think that if rents come up every year, you would think it would take one year or two years for for a lack of growth in rents to show up in a lack of growth in housing prices.

It turns out it takes three years. Okay, SPY starting to work, dude. That's been five, six minutes of pressure all to the upside. Currencies and the bonds are a little weird today, but equity risk on mode that's doing its own thing now. And a lot of things are giving it that lift. Yeah, again, Intel chips, we were just calling them out there.

And then now airlines are chilling out. U they all benefited off of low oil earlier and now they're starting to fade a little bit. Gentleman yields back. Gentleman from California, Mr. Licardo is recognized for five minutes. Amanda Licardo laughing like Ricky Lardo your testimony today. I I appreciate that your dual mandate is full employment uh and price stability.

I appreciate your efforts on behalf of our country to achieve those. My understanding is that critical data is collected by the Bureau of Labor Statistics to help uh formulate the indicators that you rely on that we rely on to understand unemployment rates, CPI and other inflation indicators. Uh we are certainly hearing a lot about the impacts of Doge on our workforce and specifically about the elimination of many of those positions in BLS.

And now we have a proposal in front of Congress to cut $56 million from that agency. Are you concerned about the ability of your team to get accurate data and about the ability to have reliable indicators to make good decisions upon? I wouldn't say that I'm concerned about the data today, although clearly there has been a very mild degradation of the of the scope of this of the surveys and things like that.

But I would say the direction of travel is is something I'm concerned about and that is um me measuring the US economy carefully and well is a project that's been going on and we're getting better at it for a hundred years and more. And it's really important not just for the Fed, but for Congress and for businesses, frankly, to know what really is going on in the economy.

What's what's happening? Is growth high? Is it low? And all those sorts of things. So, I think it's I think it's a smart investment to just continually try to get better at measurement of what's happening in the economy. And I I don't like to see that uh you know, uh the kind of stories I'm reading and the idea being that that the data is going to become more volatile and less reliable.

that's not gonna that'll make it more difficult for the private sector and for you and for us and I don't like to see that direction. I agree. Thank you. Uh I appreciate that it's not your role to comment on the advisability specific policies but given your critical role in ensuring price stability and reducing inflation.

Uh I have had conversations with quite recently just a week ago with a sea suite executive of a major world global retailer uh who informed me because I asked you know why aren't we seeing the impact of these tariffs and price data yet and he said it's coming it's coming in the third quarter because it takes time uh for tariffs to work their way through.

Please let me interrupt this message to remind you that in the beginning of the year they said it will arrive in May the second quarter and it has now not arrived and they are pushing it to the third quarter. So back to our sponsors from the government. Thank you. What I hear I happen to meet with an unusually large number of business people in this last uh FOMC cycle and that's a typical thing that they'll say especially the retailers that what's being sold now was in inventory in February let's say and and it just isn't showing up yet.

So we we do expect to show up tariff inflation to show up more to but I I want to be honest we really don't know how much of that's going to be passed through to the consumers. We just don't know and we won't know until we see it. It could be lower than we expect. It could be higher. We have to wait and see which is which is kind of what we're doing.

I appreciate the uncertainty. Another thing he told me had me very concerned was that often they will increase prices on goods not subjected to tariffs to compensate for the very substantial losses they have to suffer uh with the increase of tariffs on relatively price inelastic uh price elastic goods.

So in other words, necessities uh will also tend to bear a higher price even if they're not subjected to tariffs. Uh, is that your understanding of the potential impacts? You know, that that very much is something that companies will tell you that they do if they can't if they can't. My understanding is that people will take advantage of you if you let them.

So, these corporations, if they know you guys will accept the prices, they're going to do it. But then once they realize people will back off, why do you think they've all caved? And finally, so yeah, that's my that's how I indications in the introduction of the report uh that uh the Fed is losing its ability as as we see interest rates getting closer and closer to the the the minimum threshold.

Uh the ability to stimulate this economy in times of recession. Uh we haven't had a recession or at least we haven't had extended recession in a decade and a half. Uh I am particularly concerned now as we are looking at debt uh that is being considered to be imposed on future generations by this particular bill.

Uh could there be a combination of very high debt and very little room to move monetary policy? It could undermine our ability to respond to the next recession. So we faced that issue quite a bit in in the era of very low interest rates. But you know we're at higher levels of interest rates now. significantly more room to cut than there was then.

Gentleman yields back. Gentleman from Wisconsin, Mr. Fitzgerald, you're recognized for five minutes. Thank you, Chairman. Uh Chairman Pal, thanks for being here today. Appreciate it. Uh I want to go back to something I we've had we had some brief discussions about this in the past, but in September of 2024.

Uh with core inflation still being above target and the labor market was holding steady at the time, uh the Fed made a decision to cut rates by a full half percentage point. Um it kind of raised some serious questions as to whether or not uh the data like truly supported such a move at that time. And I think some of us were surprised that it was a full half percent.

Um, so c can you revisit that again? What what the fed was thinking at that time because it seems to be somewhat of an enigma now. It stands out as you know why was this done? Why was the half percent done at that point? I'd be glad to. So yeah, um, first of all, the the actually the inflation and employment readings were very similar then to what they are now.

They weren't they weren't terribly true a tenth or two, right? But the difference then was you Hinge Health that was the recent IPO Zillow, bro. Every day labor the unemployment rate had actually gone up almost a full percentage point. I was very clear about this. We were very clear about it in real time too.

The concern at that time no it was [ __ ] uh that the the experience or hadn't been in the modern era. the unemployment rate has gone up close to 1% that hasn't been followed by much higher levels of unemployment and a recession. So we were looking at that and saying and remember at that point at the point we're talking about the federal funds rate was 5.3%.

So definitely very restrictive level. We were the last of the big central banks to cut. So we wanted to make a statement that we were supportive of the labor market and not just inflation. We've been focusing on inflation or you presidential candidate. It was all about the labor market. Inflation was the same and uh no one talks about market rate of change concerns.

And remember, we were being for being late to cut. So, uh we could have done 25 if we' done 25 in July. We were criticized for not cutting in July. Instead, we cut 50 in September. And it seemed like the right thing to do, you know, and at the end of the day, we we do what we think is the right thing when we think it's the right thing to do.

But we don't we don't take into consideration political factors. If we start doing that, I don't know where that stops. Once you start considering elections and stuff like that, where does it stop? So, and I didn't I didn't want to I don't want to insinuate that it had anything to do with with the election itself, but there just seems to be some very similar numbers right now.

And I'm wondering uh why you're not bringing this up because I want to kind of make a point about did the Fed do the right thing or not. I bring it up because it seems like everything's in place right now to kind of do the same thing, make the same move. I know you've, you know, this morning already you've talked a little bit about where you were on inflation right now and kind of what you're watching, but um is there any is there any lesson there?

I mean, are we in a position where where it would be appropriate to do something uh as as as big as a half percent cut again? Well, look, I as I as I said earlier, if if not for if you just look at the the basic data and don't look at at the forecast, you would say that we we would have continued cutting.

The difference, of course, is at at this time, all forecasters are expecting pretty soon uh that there that some significant inflation will show up from tariffs. Now, and you know, we can't just ignore that, but but we're not we're not we're just saying let's wait and see more. That's all we're doing.

And if you will have noticed the majority of written down rate cuts in the in the remaining stability Visa's on the low and Boeing again so it's just a question yeah Visa is starting to dump again you had Mastercard stable coins today they're still holding and then Bobo if we did that would change things you know we're going to continue to adapt as the data adapt but that is the difference between then and now then inflation was forecasted to continue to come down here.

It's forecast to go up by all forecasters. So, and again, we're not overreacting to that. We're just saying, hey, let's as long as the economy is strong, we can take a little bit of a pause here and that's what we're doing. And again, continue to adapt as the data comes in. If we see data that suggests that inflation's not going to produce big increases, you know, that would matter.

And if we saw the labor market weakening, that would matter, too. But we don't see those things. What about supply chain in 2020? that was a big issue obviously related to CO but I know myself and other members when we're in our districts and we're specifically talking to light manufacturing there's there's concerns about the supply chain is that part of the data package that you review when you make a decision about where we're headed in the future very much so you know I think that's one of the one of the great uh well we'll call it a great thing one of the lessons to be taken from the last episode is supply chains really matter we're watching that carefully It's too soon to say really on that.

We're not seeing it yet, but we gentleman's time is Thank you, chairman. Y back. Thank you, Mr. Fer. Gentleman from New Jersey, Scott H, you're recognized for five minutes. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Uh, Chairman Powell, as a member of the intelligence committee, I'm deeply concerned about the threat of Iranian cyber attacks on our financial system as retaliation for our strikes on their nuclear facilities.

In its cyber security report last year, the Fed acknowledged that critical infrastructure, including financial services, is at risk with rising geopolitical tensions. Iran has a history of targeting American infrastructure companies and financial institutions and banks uh which could obviously threaten uh and cause economic damage.

What actions is the Fed taking now to monitor and defend against Iranian or proxy cyber threats targeting our country's financial institutions? So we're we're in touch with um with the other regulators and the parts of the government that that that work on cyber uh as you know and um you know we're in touch with the banks to to to say you know to for people to be on the alert for for on and also we're on the we just saw it earlier on that first pop.

I don't know what the volume it's a big issue and uh you feel like you have the resources right now to be prepared for that? Yes. I mean I think we do. We're, you know, we've uh Hinge is already above volumes on these things. So, Hinge right now by the morning is already traded as much as uh every other day that it's been around.

So, it's expecting like 3 million in volume. The president and members of his administration, but it doesn't trade a lot. It's only done 798,000 various name calling um for certain decisions you've made. I know that some people worry that the president will impact your decision-m I know you worked together and I know that and respect obviously your independence greatly.

Anything you want to add and and give you a chance to reiterate your independence to the American people? Yeah, I just I I would just say we're we're focused on one thing and that is we want to deliver a good economy for the benefit of the American people. That's it. Uh and anything else is kind of a distraction.

I don't mean to refer to any particular thing but we stay focused on that task all the time. We always do what we think is the right thing to do and you know we live with the consequences and uh that's I don't know how else to do the job right the name calling and the Mr. too late, all that stuff. We shouldn't the American people shouldn't worry about that.

You're focused on being independent. Just Yeah. I that's what I care about. I care about doing the job for the American people. The our the things we do matter a lot for people's lives and that really concentrates the mind. Uh you know, you you want to just stay focused on that task. As long as you're sitting in these chairs that we occupy, focus on that task.

Do what you think is the right thing and take the consequences. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. You've previously stated that you view stable coins as a form of money. Payment stable coins are already being used for both retail and wholesale payments as well as for settlement. Recently, this committee passed the stable coin act and the Senate passed the Genius Act, both aiming to establish clear regulatory frameworks for fully reserved dollarbacked payment stable coins.

Given their design to maintain a stable value and be redeemable for US dollars, should the SEC or other regulators explore treating these stable coins as cash equivalents for accounting or financial reporting purposes? Let me say I I think it's a it's a great thing that that bills are moving. We need a we need a stable coin framework.

On that particular issue, I don't have a I don't have a view for you. I can come back to you on that. I' I'd be grateful. Thank you. Um high rates have also caused, as we've discussed, the cost of paying off our nation's debt to skyrocket. The CBO estimates that interest payments will cost the US a trillion dollars in fiscal year 2026, continue to rise to almost 1.8 trillion by State Farm in the morning.

How do you see us? Yeah. pay off our debt at this rate and continue to borrow. How does that impact your decision to keep or cut rates? Obviously foreign countries like Japan where significant buyers of our bonds which start decreasing their purchases significantly other internal pressures worldwide are having that impact.

Are you worried about this global issue? You know fiscal policy and and really is is not our job and it's not something we take into consideration in making monetary policy. that's really elected people's jobs and uh I I would add that you know for some time now the US federal fiscal policy is has been on an unsustainable path and you know I'll limit myself to that.

Um last question. Uh last week you chose to keep rates steady and families in our state as you'll hear from a lot of people today are really struggling with the higher cost of borrowing and putting off bigger purchases on things like cars and homes. as a result their wallets being crushed by these price hikes and obviously the president's tariffs.

What do you say to Jersey families who are struggling with higher costs how they should forecast themselves for their own families? We're committed to returning returning inflation sustainably to 2% and keeping it there in the long run. And what we're doing now is we you know we had cut rates by by 100 basis points.

So they've come down quite a bit. And um you know when the time is right I expect that that will continue and that will that will depend on um on economic factors you know in the coming months for starters. Where'd it go? The [ __ ] Please hold while we connect your power. Please monitor for details.

Where did it go? That was weird. Which we think are long overdue considering the Fed in 2021 indicated that they would soon put out proposals for reform to the SLR and never actually did. However, our understanding is that the proposal being considered this week will not allow for treasuries to be excluded from the SLR calculation.

Secretary Bent earlier this year had argued that such a change could serve as a boost for banks and their ability to intermediate in the Treasury market and could potentially pull treasur Treasury yields down 30 to 70 basis points. Chairman Powell, do you agree with the Treasury Secretary's comments on the potential positive impact of SLR reform on the Treasury market and what is the rationale for not excluding treasuries from the SLR calculation in the proposed rule?

Um so I agree that when the rel when the um leverage ratio is binding it discourages banks from um undertaking low margin fairly safe activities such as mediation in the treasury markets. So this should encourage more mediation. I don't have a a uh numerical estimate of of how much that would matter but I do think it would matter.

I think it was important. I've supported leverage ratio reform for a very long time since before 2021. Chairman, in terms of the of the of the structure of the thing, I think we're we're seeking comment on on on a particular proposal that doesn't involve exclusion, but uh but we're also asking a question about exclusion.

Uh Mr. Chairman, considering the Fed temporarily excluded treasuries from the SLR calculation during the COVID pandemic, were you aware of any safety and soundness or financial stability problems that arose as a result of that decision? And if not, why was that relief terminated in 2021? So that was an emergency measure from the beginning and end.

It was emer an emergency measure. I think you know my my long-held view is that we should have a permanent measure and now we're going to and you we have an open board meeting on uh on Wednesday afternoon and u after I finish my hearing on the Senate side and I'm very much looking forward to putting this proposal out to for comment.

Thank you. In March, the Federal Reserve together with the FDIC and the OC announced that they intend to issue a notice of proposed rulemaking to repeal the 2023 Community Reinvestment Act and replace it with the legacy CRA framework. Nearly 3 months have passed since this announcement. What is the status of this project?

Well, we're we're we're going to do what we said we were going to do. It's just a question of execution, and I I think you'll see that coming. this would be uh um so vice chair Bowman has the uh has the job of sequencing these things and and that one's certainly coming. Uh do you intend to issue a proposal that will be a clean recision and replacement of that rulem or are you considering amendments to the legacy rule?

Uh I think it's EU ready retaliatory tariffs to secure better trade deal. We might. Yeah. And then German. Finally, I'd like to build off of more muscular approach on the supervision of novel activities. Do you feel any changes need to be made to it innovation? And do you anticipate such changes to the program?

I do. And I I also think um Governor Bow Governor Bowman now vice chair Bowman is is someone who is actually deeply knowledgeable and experienced in supervision and that that hasn't really been the model. We've more had people who are experts on regulation. I think she brings a particular ability to move supervision in a in a healthy direction while also pres preserving safety and st uh soundness.

And that's what you mentioned is one of the dimensions in which I think that will be true. Thank you for your testimony today. Appreciate your service to the country. And with that, I yield back, Mr. Chairman. Thank you. Gentleman yields back. The chair recognizes the ranking member of our full committee, Mrs.

Waters, for five minutes. Uh, thank you very much, Mr. Chairman. Uh, Chair Powell, I appreciate that despite the repeated attacks. Yeah, you're ripping bad EU news. And then you also right before that had a comment on rate and you just continuing along, baby. Yeah, intel is popping. I just saw that on the higher given the current state of economic uncertainty due to his policies.

Last week, the Fed held interest rates steady. Afterwards, you said that you and other experts continue to expect a meaningful amount of inflation due to tariffs, uh, Trump's tariffs. You said that it may take some time for the tariffs to work their way through the supply chain, but that you found, and I quote, "Many companies do expect to put some or all of the effect of tariffs through to the next person in the chain and ultimately to the consumer," quote end quote.

So while the president may try to claim other countries pay these tariffs, can you confirm that it is indeed consumers and businesses in the United States that will bear these cost? So it can be anybody from the exporter, the importer, the retailer, the manufacturer or the consumer that winds up paying these these tariffs.

In the beginning, it will be the importer that pays the tariff, but ultimately it will be spread out among those five, each of which will try very hard not to contribute. But in the end, the tariff will be paid. And uh and you know, all of the data suggests that at least some of that will fall, not all of it, but at least some of it will fall on consumers.

Well, you indicated it may take some time for tariffs to work their way through the supply chain. Would you elaborate on this, including when can when is it that we can see negative impacts to inflation from Trump's tariff policy? So, you know, the things that are being sold at retail now, they might have been put into into the tariffs in February or or March.

Um, so we we think we should start to see this over the summer, you know, in in the June numbers and in the in the uh July numbers. And if we don't, I think we're learning here. If we see less less uh pass through uh there aren't historical you're older than me. You don't need to learn this. So it may turn out is less or more think and I think we're going to be learning you know we'll get a we'll get a a number for well if the prices don't go up then we'll learn after we all forecasted they'd already remember May was supposed to have empty shelves.

It's now the end of June and now they're telling you look for the end of August. The [ __ ] is this? Well, you know, I've been talking with a lot of my constituents about these tariffs and the question that comes up is now literally like reverse only hurt maybe the big businesses. What about our small business?

And then they're about to drop the spending. What about the people that maybe that's what they're waiting for every day? It's not going to be a result of tariffs. It'll be a result of 1.7 trillion a year. Small business. Yes. I mean, I I don't I don't think it's um abber. If you're a smaller company that maybe imports following along the game, that's that's a common business model these days, then you may you may if if your product is tariffed, you may you may be the one that's affected significantly.

Whereas bigger companies have more resources and a more diverse product line. Why do you think you can resist the president uh basically telling you what to do? What gives you that owner old inventory? I don't think about that way at all. Didn't you expect that to happen? And then why in the last did you not rely on us to get it right while all tariffs really matters that we get it right?

That's the real question. Concentrates one's mind. Like I'm saying, I'm not going to stand for the fearongering that they've been saying since November. All I want to do, we're supposed to run out of items in May at the Fed. Prices were supposed to skyrocket by now strong and have inflation be under control, have a solid labor market.

I want to turn it over to my successor in that condition. Of course, that's that's what keeps me up at night is to do that. And um that's what I think about. That's the only thing I think about. So, how are you protected? By law, by constitution, where does your authority come from? I think I you know, I've covered all that.

And I I do think we're fully protected and and again we're I don't I don't think about that anymore. What I think about is let's just do our jobs and and that's what we do. You know, we don't talk about those issues at all and all we do is do our jobs as best we can. And you know, it's it's not an easy job, but it's one we've willingly taken on and very important that we remain focused just on the job and not on other things.

Thank you very much. I yel back. Vote new prices. gentleoman yields back. But nothing's happened. The chair recognizes so you can make your orders today. Whoever is choosing is charge you more money and if you accept it that's thank you Mr. Chairman right now there's no tariffs chairman pal. So any of your supplers as recently as yesterday Fed Governor indicated that if inflation pressures remain contained the Fed should consider lowering rates uh and said she is open to a rate cut in July.

Uh, Governor Waller uh said uh very much the same. Uh do you believe that we are in a position by literally in the last 3 months the only people who got clapped? It was the people who fell for the propaganda it was the people choosing to ship while China had the duty. Turns out that inflation pressures do remain contained.

Like I saying, I would make your wholesalers I'd make them pay for it if they're trying to charge you cuz right now there is zero tariffs a particular not rush because this is when you're supposed to frontload it all. That's why it's like the labor market, you know, meaning weaken a decision to accept it.

That would matter for that decision. I would look for other suppliers inflation, you know, continuing not to move up inflation to move up. We do expect it to move worst case not happen. We'll learn from that. I'm still genuinely the September 2018 teal book suggested that the Fed seeing through tariffs inflationary effects is an appropriate response so long as inflation expectations are firmly anchored and that the pass through costs are relatively short-lived.

Would you agree that this assessment from the teal book still applies to today? I would. Those are the exact um factors that we cite when we talk about this situation plus that plus the size of the tariffs. Right? So let's let's assess the current economic situation. The monetary policy report states that longerrun inflation expectations quote continue to broad to be broadly consistent% inflation unquote.

And a Harvard study argued that despite the relatively quick price responses to tariff announcements, the overall magnitude of these changes remains modest. So if these conditions hold, is it not unreasonable to think that underlying inflation EU headline gave us this volatility here? That's that's a that's certainly a very defensible position.

I think what you you know what people others on the committee think and what I think is that this is a question we need to be careful with because it's different than it was in 2018. Uh the difference is that we haven't had 2% inflation. In 2018 we hadn't had an inflation as high as 2% for a decade anymore.

Right? This is a different situation. We haven't fully restored price stability. and another shock. We have to be careful if if there's a meaningfully large and sustained inflation shock. We have to be careful about that. And so I agree. But why? I think we're just trying to be careful and cautious.

That's what I'm saying. I agree with him 100% in that fact. Like this is different than 2018. You already have inflation. You're going to be more vulnerable. But the thing, if you guys haven't realized, the pro part that I'm getting bothered at is everybody in the media, the government, Powell, everybody.

They're all trying to say it's tariffs. Once again, it's not [ __ ] tariffs. It is going to be the Donald Trump spending bill. That's why you That's what should worry you about secondwave, thirdwave inflation, but not that. That's what I'm saying. this whole propaganda to businesses, producers, and saying that it's supply side.

It is supply side, but it's money supply side. It's not good supply side. I think this is just so it's so odd. And I think Powell just doesn't want to step on the government toes. And maybe he doesn't want to say that if in his defense, but like I'm saying, this isn't like all of my little interruptions.

I'm telling OSG 3% drop. It's it's all money supply. But I'm not Again, it's the same thing I was telling you months ago about tariffs. I I can't entertain this conversation about goods tariffs. No. Or goods inflation over tariffs. No, it's going to be money supply. It's going to be July 4th. That I could get behind.

If Powell is worried about that, I I but I would be more receptive if he just said that rather than playing this this weird game of uh you know blaming Donald Trump's tariffs when we should be blaming Donald Trump's spending bill. So yeah, there you have. But they all get paid offending. That's why they don't want to say Republicans and Democrat.

Four of them say policy rate is in the right range and the other one calls for a hike. Right. Just for the record. Well, back in the beginning of the Biden administration, okay, when we talk about inflation, they increased federal spending by $2.5 trillion each year, $5 trillion in new spending. That's what gave us inflation by printing all of this new money and borrowing.

And yet, you did not respond to that by raising rates. In fact, you were late to raise. Now we're talking. And now again, we see a situation where you are late. Oh, come on. That is the challenge here. You save it to the end and then you [ __ ] shot it. Gentleman from Georgia, Mr. Scott, stupid [ __ ] Thank you, chairman.

This is exactly what I was just telling. I want to hear money supply. Tell me what they're doing with money supply in the Fed. And then [ __ ] time's up. A coherent, are you kidding me? tariff policy. Is that your opinion? Now we got this guy on half speed for me to make or to discuss. [ __ ] I can't believe they did that.

Well, what do you think? Right when he said what I wanted and they're like comment on the president's words or the president. Does the president in your opinion does he have a coherent tax uh tariff policy? You ought to have an opinion on that. You run our economy. This is your belly wig. Do you think he's got a good policy?

Answer me. I I would never comment on the president of the United States in that way. All right. Do you think What do you think uh our policy should be? We we play no role in either uh establishing or commenting on tariff policy or fiscal policy for that matter. In our business, we have a specific mandate.

We try to stick to it. Let me tell you something. Uh, chairman god. In my state of Georgia, if someone ever said, "Let me tell you something that slow." I be God. A trade group down there. Let me tell you something. Port of Savannah. [ __ ] I'll tell you. Let me tell you something. This growing uh party and it's seen and it's rising.

That's what's going to happen when we get the cult compound. You guys are going to get there and I'm going to be like, "Let me tell you something. I'm going to make you sit down. You got to hear Josh stories for 3 hours before you can property. What you think of you sit down? I'm going to tell you about the Amtrak and [ __ ] I'm going to tell you.

What do I tell my tell? Come here. Sit down. Tell the American people. Sit down. And you're a good man. You're a good You're a good Chad. Talk to me. All right. I want to know the answer to this question. I want to know how you feel. This old terror question, it's a tax increase. Marcus, can you sample that?

Sample that one quote right there. I just got a question. I just want to know how you feel. I want that on a track. Somebody sample that, please. That's a great intro. That's a great intro. I'm just telling you, you have a responsibility. And then OSG is still dumping whatever that was. Afraid of President Donald Trump.

Why don't you deal with this? because our economy are suffering in a mighty bad way and I've got to my and show and they are let's take George's understanding of that. Honestly, I this is just not our How did he not run out of time? the the guy with the monetary policy question. How has he not ran out of time?

President makes I feel like I've been or or the things that he runs for office on and is elected on and then does. We don't that's just completely out of our lane. It's really inappropriate for me to have any comment on that. I'm sorry to say, Mr. Scott, Nike on the low Baba running. We're having these regional disruptions.

This is full speeding guys. This is not slow down in a bad way. And I want to see you and the president. You got to get together on this. We got pecans in Georgia. We got peanuts. We run the biggest group. We got the fastest growing trade uh mechanism in the Savannah Port Authority. We're crushed in Georgia.

I love Georgia. I'm a big fan of Georgia. Actually, that's what sucks. I can't believe it's your boy cuz I love Georgia. You guys know that. I love Georgia. Shout out Trapper, baby. I love Georgia. That was one of the places in America that contrary to popular belief, I loved it. I love I enjoyed Atlanta.

I enjoyed the country. I loved all of Georgia. It's a good place to get you into together. Gentleman's time is expired. Appreciate the gentleman from Georgia. Gentleoman from Florida, Miss Salazar, is recognized for five minutes. Hi, thank you very much for being here. Appreciate your time. And uh my name is Maria Salazar.

I represent the city of Miami. Miami, one of the cities most composed of Hispanic Americans and people that adore living the American dream. So, um, putting that into context, I wanted to ask you a few questions about, uh, the labor force. We agree with what the President Trump is doing, uh, or what the administration is doing in deporting illegals, criminal illegals.

We do not want trenagua. We don't really want people who have committed any type of crime. Trump, both Israel and Iran wanted to stop the war equally. It was my great honor to destroy all the nuclear facilities and then stop the war. truth of being. Mr. President, it was my great honor to destroy all of their puny puny facilities.

What the ICE leadership has now damage and most of those people are working in three main sectors, construction, hospitality, and agriculture. Even the president said the other day in a high that he understands that he that those hands are needed. We're talking about 15% of the economy, construction, hospitality, and agricultural.

So my question to you is what is the economic what is the growth effect on the economy if this type of removal of people of hands being removed from those three it would be bad but objectively in reality Donald Trump less people so far than Joe Biden Clinton Obama budget office agencies can assessments like I don't know why you know and then he even said he's willing to keep farmers employment.

Some people are disappointed in Donald Trump's deportation efforts. What it's obviously done is it's it's really reduced the amount of growth in the labor. Let's go, baby. So, uh, at the same time, demand for workers has been coming down as well because they've been coming down. So, one drop at a time reduce the growth.

Starbucks, aren't they up? We want to continue growing. We're the number one economy in the world. We need to continue Starbucks. are saying that what's affecting the growth? Well, there are two things that affect grow growth. One is growth in the labor force, more people working and the other thing is productivity.

How much how much do they produce per hour worked? And when you so when you significantly slow the growth of the labor force, you will you will slow the growth of the economy. But I think again it's not for us to have a view on on immigration policy. No, no, no. I was just my comments, but you you do agree that if we don't have those hands, then we don't grow.

I think that growth growth will slow and actually is slowing this year and that's one of the reasons. Well, we don't like that. Google. So now let's talk about over the next 10 years. You just said growth slowly. 2025 to 2035. Americans are not kids. So that means that we need other people, right? So over the next decade based on the current trends that I just explained to you and that you just reiterated will there be enough workers to fulfill the labor needs of our economy in the 2020 between 2025 and 2035.

I think labor economists do see do they do do observe the phenomenon you're talking about which is demand for is demand for labor going to be met by the by the domestic population the nativeorn population and the answer appears to be probably not over the next 10 years and then what about if we do not have that labor force over the next 10 years what happens so many many things will happen you know you can see a big increase in productivity which would mean we don't need as many workers For example, artificial intelligence could be implemented in a way that creates widespread productivity gains.

I wouldn't count on that, but it's a possible. I would not. You would not count on that. I wouldn't count on it. You would not. No, I mean think I think there'll be gains because well because with productivity enhancing things, they typically take longer to be implemented and then it takes a while for the gains to be shown.

I think in the case of artificial intelligence, those gains are coming, but they may take longer or be less in the beginning than than expected. And during the time that those changes happen, then what happens? Our economy doesn't grow. Is that what you're saying? Yes. But I mean, those who make immigration policy are entitled to weigh these factors.

You know, we can report on what happens, but it's really not our job. I I understand it's not. I just want to hear your what you're thinking. What's your expertise based on those immigration laws that we're implementing right now? Well, because I only have 30 seconds. Do you think that I hit another high home builder back on the high as well?

We can continue remaining or we the United States economy can continue being the number one economy in the world and and that we could compete if we were to have the immigration laws that we have right now. I think you you could have you know the highest per capita uh earnings but if you're talking about the aggregate output then um you know population growth may be a constraint.

Which one of the two is more important? John's time has expired. Good question. Well, you can I think he gentleoman's time is expired. He's like, "Come on, answer it." Turn ranking member of the house until we see anything above here. You got one more one or two more levels. Thank you, Mr. Chairman.

And and and and welcome, Chairman Powell. Um let me start uh by thanking you for your uh careful keeping in your lane and steering clear of fiscal policy um and in particular for your stalwart defense of independent monetary policy. You're getting pressure from very powerful places and lots of committing from uh on the uh interest rate.

Yeah. 5082 to 507. You guys are independ uh Mr. Chairman, I want to talk just a little bit about um some of the technical matters associated with energy prices and inflation because obviously turmoil in the Middle East has sent oil prices uh swinging wildly with West Texas Intermediate in the last month or so being anywhere between $61 and $75 a barrel.

Um we recently saw the Iranian parliament vote to close the straight of Hormuz, which currently handles around 20 million barrels a day, uh a fifth of global demand and a little bit more in terms of natural gas. Um, chair pow, you said last week that conflict in the Middle East in the 1970s resulted in very large inflation shocks.

In contrast to the 1970s, uh, today the United States does not import most of its energy regime on a net basis. Um, but the argument made that I think is wrong that because we're energy self-sufficient, somehow we are insulated from global energy price market prices. Um can you comment on that? Is is there any validity to the notion that we are not American consumers of energy are not subject to global swings in energy prices?

Yes. So um the the place price of oil is set globally right and I think if you go back u a few years the thought was that when the global we had we had a natural shock absorber which is that we would just drill more and and that we would if prices went up we would drill more and so you wouldn't have these sustained price shocks that we had during the 1970s and the original OPEC era.

I think that is actually in question now because you know uh the oil industry in the US is is being much more careful and focused on return on investment than they were having been burned with over capacity right and and I mean yeah in the long run you can invest in additional extraction technologies but this does not respond to day-to-day spot prices so not quickly point I'm trying to make is that the conflict in the Middle East if it resulted in $120 barrel oil which is where oil was in 2022 that would have a fair fairly substantial inflationary impact on the American household.

Is that correct? We would certainly feel that you know and as we discussed earlier you there's a lot of lore around looking through oil price shocks but that depends on the facts and circumstances. What as a technical matter we refer to which is a basket of goods oil inflation. Roughly speaking what percentage of that basket is comprised of energy?

I don't have that on the top of my head. much less than it was. Of course, the oil consumption is much less than it was in the 70s as a percent of GDP, but energy includes natural gas and gasoline and that it's it's a meaningful portion of the Yes. Although, of course, we have we have more natural gas than we have so much natural gas.

So, that wouldn't that'll that'll always be there for us. So, none of us can predict um what's going to happen in the Middle East in an hour, much less in a week or a month or a year. But um as a technical matter, at what price for a barrel of oil does the American household begin to feel inflationary effects?

So we're, you know, we're at $75 a barrel roughly right now. At what price point does the American household begin to feel some inflationary effects? I I don't want to throw out a number. You know, I think we're and you know, we're frankly it's too early to say that something like that's going to happen and I know you know that.

Um but I wouldn't want to throw out a specific number. If you know if prices went up materially, people would feel that. Okay. Okay. Um again, I think if I look at the data here, uh WTI per barrel about $150 in uh 22. That could be a buyout. I don't know if there's any good contracts would occur to inflation.

And how would it influence the Fed's thinking? Should we be back at Oh, I got one. Amber chip designer said to explore sale. I haven't confirmed. You know, we would look that's on the wire. Amber, ask ourselves. Um, look at seeking an offer. I got one plant for like 10 cents. I was trying to get a bunch of them.

It only filled me on like one. Back in the early teens, um, oil prices went up a lot and that went into the I got another one and there was a discussion and I am look through that. We got it, baby. because by the time you heard it here first the price comes back down. I think the question today would be you know is the situation different and and what would be the implications of those differences.

Gentleman's time is expired. I thank the gentleman from Connecticut. Chair recognizes the gentleman from North Carolina. Mr. Moore you're recognized for five minutes. Thank you Mr. Chairman. Chairman Pal. I want to touch on international standard setting bodies like we got a hitter committee on banking supervis.

Their goal is to promote better harmonization for 1700% already regul regulation standards, but the Biden administration's implementation of Basel 3 in game. You have to grab it in the first minute or two. You could still go for him. I don't know where it's going to end the first set of plays already.

That's why both Democrats and Republicans shot down former vice chair Michael Bar's proposal which made capital less acceptable and put US firms and businesses at a global disadvantage. Do you agree that the United States though? You just saw it international. I just saw it on the high ticker. I knew it was above average move and I just went straight to the option chain and then I I took all the contracts that didn't yesterday to end the use of I tried to get a lot but it only filled me on whatever was available.

I only walked away with a couple tool to pressure banks to refrain from offering financial services to politically disfavored individuals or industries. What further steps is the Federal Reserve taking to help usher in these changes, such as ending examination practices that informally encourage banks to close certain accounts without written justification?

So, we're um we're developing I should say Vice Chair Bowman is is developing a range of policies that will help in that area and I should let her speak to it, but as you know, we've we've eliminated reputation risk largely in a thoughtful way from those things. Uh I think we became more aware of that problem over the course of last year and and like the other agencies decided to to move away from that.

We're very conscious of the of the fact that we shouldn't be talking to this man. I bought Ethereum at like $8, but I like how you frontline examined with this new direction and not continuing with any past practices. Play was Amberella. I mean don't worry about the play. It was the news again. exploring a sale.

We caught that within seconds. Will the and and I think they will and I I think uh as a former bank examiner, Vice Chair Bowman is actually very well positioned to engage with supervisors and um and in a way that someone with experience can do successfully, whereas if you're uh if you don't have that experience, I think it might be harder.

Thank you. Uh you know Secretary Bessant recently announced a drive to change the culture of supervision through improvements to examination procedures enhanced monitoring of of examiners compliance at the high procedures and more realistic still at the low am that includes defining unsafe and unsound by rule uh using more objective measures rooted in financial risk.

Do you support this initiative and will be further elf on the reserve to achieve this? They're kind of dumping. I like the sound of all that. I will say I on issues of supervision. Um, vice chair Bowman has, you know, sign I don't know if anything on the background and the understanding. Let me double check.

I just got first thing I would do is I would ask her what she thinks about that. Yeah. Um, just sort of a change changing direction on a couple questions. During the volatility in the Treasury markets last April, some have speculated that foreign investors no price. Since then though, recent data has showed that foreign investors holding of US treasuries held close to a record high in April.

Does this data show status and the dollar global resourcation? I would say yes to that. I I I think we need to be careful about these narratives that pop up quickly. I mean, we're we're the world's reserve currency and the world's greatest democracy and I think the the dollar and is always going to be, you know, for anyway for a long time is going to be the reserve currency and the place where people want to be.

Let me ask you this. Do you believe there's a possibility that Treasury markets will crack just as Jamie Diamond has recently warned at the Reagan National Economic Forum? You know, I wouldn't I don't want to say things like that. I I I don't think that's something that's happening. Treasury markets are functioning well and normally and they did function through a period of pretty substantial stress and as you pointed out Mr.

Moore that that they're focusing well now. Thank you. With that uh I yield back and actually if Miss Salazar is still here I'll give her my remaining time. If not I yield back Mr. Oh yeah. Gentlemen yields back. Give her the time. Chair recognizes Miss Williams of Georgia. You're recognized for five minutes.

Yeah. Yeah, thank you, Mr. Chairman. Mr. Chairman really popping off in the morning. It's been a while since I've had the opportunity to ask questions. Sitting at the bottom of the the room, but I am happy to have this conversation today because the last time we talked last July, I mentioned that combating economic inequality is a critical part of the Fed's dual mandate and that is something that I am deeply deeply interested in.

Back then, we're talking about how we can get everyone in our economy to have the opportunity to contribute to their fullest potential because that's how we get our economy firing on all cylinders and work to continue to close the racial wealth gap, which my home city of Atlanta continues to lead the nation in.

That seems like such a far cry from where we are today, almost a year later. Forget our economy firing on all cylinders. Now, our economy and our nation seem to just be on fire. We're looking at tariffs that are raising the prices of groceries, fuel, housing, and everyday goods. Chairman Pal, I get feedback every time I'm in a hearing about my nails because I like to get my nails done.

And my nail tech told me about the increased in cost of so many of the different products that would be used just for me to get my manicure monthly because tariffs are frightening so many of our small businesses, which we know are the backbone of our economy. And so it's hurting my community in Atlanta.

Broad. Why do we only have an It doesn't seem like our president and my Republican colleagues are really interested in making sure that our economy fires on all economies as on all cylinders as long as billionaires continue to get richer because that's what we've seen and all of the the gutting that has been done to the federal government.

and chairman pal, I'm I mean I'm sure that this is coming to your department as well. With the recent events that we've seen, we know that it is very dangerous to gut the federal government, agencies that we depend on and politicizing the work of agencies such as yours. Chairman Pal, this current president has tried to reclassify tens of thousands of non-political public servants just to make it easier to fire them.

And that includes people who have served in Democratic and Republican administrations. It even includes people who serve in independent agencies just like yours. Chair Pal, as a chair who our current and previous president routinely has threatened to fire, I think I just heard something on CNN today while you were here testifying.

But what effect has this policy had on the career civil servants in your agency? And are these threats making it easier or harder for the Fed to do monetary policy? They're having no effect. We're doing our jobs. You're doing your jobs. I appreciate you doing your job even when it might not be easy.

It is important to tune out the things that you hear on the media because I hear it every day representing a district that has a lot of federal employees, a lot of people who work at your agency. I hear from people all the time. Thank you so much. Um, and not only do I have thousands of federal employees in my district, but my district has one of the widest racial wealth gaps in the country.

Much of that has to do with our worsening housing crisis. And unfortunately, as we've seen with the past six months, our this administration has been focused on this big billionaire bailout bill, gutting HUD, and releasing a budget that does not help the supply of fair and affordable housing nationwide.

Now, we've heard the president talk about having the power to control interest rates. In your opinion, Chairman Pal, what would you expect the effects would be on the housing market if the president were to lower interest rates without addressing the housing supply crisis nationwide? Sorry. If he were to what?

If the president has talked about having the power to control interest rates, in your opinion, what would you expect affect the housing market if the president were to lower interest rates without addressing the housing supply crisis nationwide? Honestly, I I I it's not our job to speculate on on things the president might do.

Excuse. So what impact do interest rates have on the on housing access over the long run? They they don't really affect housing supply. You know, assuming that rates will go up and down. See, they don't care about constituents. Well, not on the supply. If you cared about people getting houses, you wouldn't grill Powell about interest rates cuz even when interest rates were low, I remember my first house, nobody in my family could qualify.

Yeah. Welcome to reality. It has nothing to do with interest rates. It has everything to do with qualifications, DoddFrank, all of that [ __ ] But I hope you guys realize they have brought up real estate and housing inflation way more than any other conversation. You guys, we haven't heard this in a while.

And it's weird that this has became the primary focus. You might start to hear about it then. Specifically focused on my district in Atlanta where it is so pre prevalent. Thank you so much, gentleoman's time has expired. The gentleman from Indiana, Mr. recognized for 5 minutes. Thank you, Mr. Chairman and Chairman Powell.

Great to see you and and uh they are building the area again as I mentioned to you because housing inflation is coming down on this and that makes up a big portion of because guess what's going to happen necessarily but um literally you could have housing inflation rents come down and then you get that one time little rise in inflation.

Guess what's going to happen? Nothing. It's going to net each other out. your houses get cheaper, your goods go up a little bit for six months and then it balances out. But now they're all going after housing. But it's really weird being beat up on. Everybody was quiet about housing for a very long time.

But I want to speak specifically to one particular uh individual uh Cardone Capital, Cardone Capital, Grant Cardone. He he made some pretty strong remarks about Cardone. Grant Cardone the uh your policy when it comes to the housing industry and uh he said uh you know that's why you have 500,000 more homes listed than buyers for those homes when the rates come down prices will also come down with it because you'll have more supply in the marketplace and supply is what controls prices.

Um he went on to say that you know interest rates do not control prices and he explained that lower rates could stimulate activity in the market and activity is what makes the economy work and and I agree with his comments you know overall but I believe as you said earlier the economy seems stable um and I would agree with that coming from an a and manufacturing area it's not booming yet but I believe most people are optimistic that the good times are coming and that the structure is set and in place.

But when it comes to housing, it seems like that's where a lot of I know that he I don't know why he quit Grant Cardone. They've had Grant Cardone just said that. Remember I told you guys that stat more houses for sale than buyers% into you know four and a half. I don't know why he brought up the Grant Cardone% interest rate.

thoughts on addressing housing because there prices are up for sure but people aren't there's no activity. It's there's the the velocity is very slow. Would you regard or like to comment on any of that? Sure. Um so yeah, we we we see the same thing you do in the in the housing market. It's it's tough.

There's not uh people are locked in. They can't afford to get out of their house because the cost real estate is fascinating. Higher price. not expecting this much real estate talk today. Um the best thing we can do though is to get inflation sustainably down to 2% and have it stay there over a long period of time, a long period of time.

And that that is really what we can offer to them. Um and I think you know to so if you go back to the beginning beginning of the pandemic when we we cut to zero and we did all those programs, we really saved the housing industry because they're the front line for interest rates. at a time like this when when rates are, you know, I would say modestly restrictive, not even moderately, but modestly restrictive, they feel it and and their feel.

We understand that, but we only we only have one tool for the whole economy, not just for housing. So, it's something we consider, but we have to consider the bigger picture. And I do think in the in the medium term, uh we'll as rates come down, you'll see normalization in housing. Of course, there'll still be a national housing shortage.

I don't know about your district, but yeah. Um, no, there's a shortage. I mean, considering the macroeconomics of of interest rates, I mean, how much consideration do you take housing into that decision as you address interest rates? You know, we're always briefed on it. We always talk about it. We always imagine if these everybody just asked these questions three years ago.

The whole aggregate thing that matters. That's why I'm like, what? We we also talk about the agricultural economy a lot as well. It's got to be the whole is so weird. Everything, every criticism, they're like, "Oh, is this what you voted for? Why didn't you say it four years ago?" It is hard for American families.

Why do we say this three years ago stuck? Um, and so I would just highly consider, you know, ask you to consider that piece of it because when Americans can't move, Americans can't upgrade or or move laterally, uh, it it really keeps the economy um in a kind of holds the economy back a bit when Americans don't have that.

But again, I I want to say thank you because you have a tough job, but um, I haven't heard from anyone in my district asking interest rates to go up. So, uh, I'll just pass that along because you guys don't remember that, Mr. You guys don't look remember how they all looked down and remember last time we heard this meeting, they kept asking whatever their sponsors told them to ask.

So, for some reason, all the sponsors wanted them to talk about real estate today cuz that didn't happen, bro. Any of the other times we listened, bro, you barely I would always say, "What happened to Super Core?" You guys all remember super core was core inflation excluding housing because housing kept raising inflation and then they're like let's just ignore it and then all of a sudden now it's coming back as inflation and housing is now helping inflation.

Now all of them are asking this question. Yeah. It's a new script, bro. All of them have a question to to ask about housing, housing crisis, rates, constituents, housing supply, housing supply, my nail tech. Tie it back into housing. Do you know what I'm saying? This this farmers, tie it back into housing.

Whatever it is, tie it back into housing. The government bill, tie it back into housing. Why? Why? Why? That's my question. Out of nowhere, they're all of a sudden uh bringing this up today. A child. Be happy about because it reflected what you had to do. Where the [ __ ] did this baby come from? You know, when I think about the conversation, look at the screen.

There's a baby. I mean, going through the global pandemic and the economic fallout got more hair than me. I we had to infuse money throughout our country to keep our services afloat, our our businesses afloat. And while we suffered from inflation like the rest of the world, we had the quickest strongest recovery.

We we were leading the globe and so much of that was because of your leadership. Uh, and so when I think about what this position means, how important it is that there's independency, independence, what are your biggest concerns about a potential successor that doesn't put that, prioritize that, and wants to do what is politically asked of them versus what they need to do for the country?

and what are their long-term repercussions if you're not acting on addressing the economic uncertainties and trying to address inflation in this position? So, I wouldn't speculate on on that, but but I would say um you know the credibility on the Fed of the Fed on on price stability is very very important.

Um people believe that we will bring inflation back down to 2% over time. And once they if they really do believe it and it's true, then you know that'll that'll have big effects on not just short-term rates, but long-term rates. If that were to be called into question, then you'd see long-term rates go up.

I mean, that that that um that credibility once lost is very expensive to regain is is what the historical record says. So I just think it's I think people should understand that that you know credibility on inflation is hard one and uh and something we need to constantly tend and you know that's what we're doing in our with our with our current policy is just being careful um with with potential inflation risks.

We haven't overreacted. In fact we haven't reacted at all. Uh but we're being a little bit careful about about that set of questions as we decide what we'll go 845. Thank you for bringing uh that up. As we look at where we were, follow me on Instagram at the trading real news on Twitter to stabilize and we were starting to finally see a relief on the interest rates.

They were starting to go down. Now they're holding steady. Can you talk about why the instability, you know, when we look at tariffs around the increase in the deficit by the proposed big ugly bill that is being brought uh through Congress right now and increasing our debt by trillions of dollars and having our credit downgraded uh again because we are increasing our deficit.

Um so with this economic uncertainty uh where we were going we were on the way down or uh reducing our our rates and now we have to hold steady to address the instability. Is that correct? I'm I'm sorry. Could you just briefly restate your question there? I apologize. Yes. I'm going to do this the best I can with uh with Sam here.

that with the um with with our having to address inflation as we've started to see it, you were able to decrease the rates. Um we were starting to go down a little bit. We were seeing that we were we our economy was finally in a solid place. prices were starting to go down and now with the economic uncertainty we're starting to see that you had to hold steady whereas everyone was projecting um before this administration came in with these changes um that it was going to continue to go down.

Can you talk about why you have had to had to choose to hold steady on the interest rates? So we just you know we're we stick to what we're assigned to do which is maximum employment and price stability. We don't have opinions on uh fiscal policy or trade policy or immigration policy or any one of another or regulation policy um other than other than we have our regulatory responsibilities and so we take what comes as it comes and you know uh um elected politicians do what they do and we don't criticize that we don't have opinions.

Gentleman's time is expired and the gentle ladies. Thank you. And thank you, Sam. Chair now recognizes the gentle woman from Texas, Mrs. Da Cruz, for five minutes. Thank you so much. And um thank you um Chair Pal for being here with us today. I am Congresswoman Monica Dela Cruz and I am from deep south Texas, a largely Hispanic district, a rural community right there on the border of Texas and Mexico.

I serve as the vice chair for housing and insurance subcommittee and it's difficult for families right now to afford a home on an average paycheck. I'm committed to finding affordable housing solutions for the people in my community. But I think they just watched us beat Google and now they trying to pick up on our notes that are resonating with the people cuz another housing question deals with I ignored it for [ __ ] half a decade.

To what extent does the Federal Reserve believe its balance sheet policy particularly didn't give a runoff of MBS holdings is contributing [ __ ] widening and how does that factor I'm getting mad broader assessment of financial condition last time when housing was an issue affecting the poor communities y'all created supercore and y'all said no no no no ignore it look at inflation besides housing because it's going to come down.

And now after the homeboy keeps rates this high, y'all want to keep bringing up affordable housing. Dude, I agree. We need to fix it and change it. But that being said, supporting this entirely different topic. If the Federal Reserve focuses on issues, [ __ ] everybody over and now they're like, "Yeah, we got to do something about it." these four mistakes.

How can you ensure that no other climate policy work is being done at the Federal Reserve? This is ridiculous. So, it's a it is a big risk to our independence if we were never heard every question come back to part of our mandate and I would agree that crazy. Last time it was about tariffs or it was about Powell getting fired.

Do you know what I'm saying? Like I said, whatever questions they want you to ask or the sponsors, this time it's housing. All we did was was one piece of guidance and then we ran one. Let's see what happens tomorrow with the house. By the way, didn't find anything. I think we're, you know, you don't look to us to try to take on a bigger role.

Weird play any role weird climate, which I personally think is an important issue and one that needs to be dealt with by elected officials and and to to to for bank regulators just to step in and take that on without a mandate from Congress is a is not a good idea. It's not a good solution. and it's not a good way to remain independent.

Reclaiming my time, what kind of climate guidance did you make? So, we for just the big banks, I believe we Well, the only thing is that if the bill makes housing go up because there's about to be a [ __ ] ton of money and then housing goes up crazy or they're just going to use this to blame Trump. But like I'm saying, you should have blamed the other$4 trillion that got us here.

But it's very odd. Very, very odd you guys. I was not expecting this today. Even Bill P already tweeted exactly what I told you. I was like, "Dude, why are they talking about housing?" But yeah, this is all about housing and it's very very late. You know, this isn't like this would have been a very good conversation a while ago.

The idea was but now it's like with rates another spending bills to lose value. This is very weird. that banks lend if banks are lending to those in in those areas or to those industries then uh they should at least be able to measure. It wasn't didn't ban anybody from doing anything. It wasn't prescriptive.

At the same time um you know we you have the feeling that that that it the side effect of it would be to discourage lending and we don't want that to be the case. So that's why we're looking at it. Well, it does sound like that is um policy that is based on political agenda and when it comes to wonder should not be based on political u political agenda but instead on facts facts such as credit facts as monetary good monetary policy.

So I I would have to disagree with you on the fact that the Federal Reserve stayed outside or outside of political agendas when it comes to climate change. That is a political agenda and I would have to disagree with you on that. Thank you. I yield back. Gentle lady yields back. The chair now recognizes the gentleman from California.

Mr. Chairman is also ranking member of the capital markets uh subcommittee for five minutes. Real estate question. We don't notice good bank regulation. Things just go smooth of inadequate bank regulation where we lost three banks. Uh there was a proposal uh that passed the house that would have cut the pay rate of your uh uh bank inspectors regulators down to 70% of the rate paid by at FDIC.

So you would have been the HD JD 70% of what the other major bank regulations and you still been melting up all day. I know you've announced things about headcount but I'm focusing here on just the rate of pay. Um fortunately we were saved by not Superman but Superwoman Elizabeth McD Mcdana uh the Senate parliamentarian.

But what effect would it have had on our ability to have good bank regulation? uh if uh you had to go to all uh the folks in doing bank regulation at the Fed and say that their pay is going to be cut to 70% of the rate of pay over at the FDIC uh would have made us hard hard made it harder for us to attract Dexcom pop also would have knocked down yeah that one's had a lot of pops of sort of promote by JD baba still to take care of of HR issues on our own without Congress Gotcha.

Uh there I've got a couple of questions I'd ask you to respond for in the record. The first is section nine of the big ugly bill uh big beautiful bill, whatever you want to call it. Um enforcement of remedies against unfair foreign taxes. What this does is it imposes a tax on those residents of about two dozen foreign countries should they invest in the United States, including in our treasuries.

and we're trying to attract capital from abroad. This is to push out capital abroad and it doesn't affect China. It just affects two dozen of our friends uh particularly in Europe. The other thing I'd like you to respond for the record is the tariffs and the effect that that has not only on the inflation rate but therefore on interest rates.

Dexcom and uh at your press conference you said increases in tariffs this year are likely to push up prices and weigh on economic activities to wear certainly like more about that. Yeah, Dexcom is a diabetes device. The Treasury has pacemakers, but you also have a liquidity fund which I believe involves buying and selling foreign currencies.

And so that begs the question whether if you're allowed to buy uh uh the euro, whether you're allowed to buy cryptocurrencies. Um and of course the president has said that some agency, the federal government should have a strategic crypto reserve. Do you or your successors have the legal right to take assets of the Fed and buy Bitcoin or Trumpcoin?

No, we don't. And we we do not seek this authority. I hope very much that your successor is not someone who tries to stretch existing statutes and come to an opposite answer. Um the Michael Sailor is like, "Oh, I like your tie." Focus a little bit on your tie. When you came before our committee uh last I guess in February, I asked you uh if you would take a holistic look at bank capital requirements including the riskbased capital ratios like Basel 3 endgame and stress testing to make sure uh that you don't have a contraction in the ability to provide credit to main street businesses and you said you would do that.

Uh so my question this time is how does the plan Fed plan to sequence the various capital requirement reform proposals uh that we expect to see in the coming months? In what order will you proceed uh with reforms on Abby and they're going crazy capital leverage stress testing and the GIB uh service charge um knowing that these have interactive effects can you tell us what the se the sequence will be?

So I I um I really do this is the heart of what the um the vice chair of supervision is assigned to do is to bring propos in health all of XLV that's 4% now on Dexcom that was only 1% earlier you're right there though there are many things and it's really up to her to decide what's the timing what's the priority and I I don't actually know exactly what what she's only been confirmed for a couple of weeks so we're just going with you as the head of the agency even if she is supposed to decide the sequencing that your agency and would uh tell us what the sequencing is going to be and understand how important it is for people to know what that what the order th those various regulations will have and I yield back.

Gentleman yields back. The chair now recognizes the gentleman from Iowa, Mr. Nun, for five minutes. Well, thank you, Mr. Chairman, and thank you, Chairman Powell, for joining us again here. Um, we have a saying, you know, Iowa is nice, kind of boring. We want our Fed chairman to be just the same, and you're doing a great job at that.

We appreciate it. Thank you. Um, nothing gets boring. We we like that, too. Look, you have a lot of great staff that come from Iowa as well. I appreciate you having them on your team. Uh, we also want to recognize the fact that, you know, folks in Iowa are still feeling the challenges of the last four years.

We're middle America. It is um the heartland of the country, but it also means that impacts that change things on the coast don't always get felt the same way in the Midwest. And so, as a result, folks are stretching every dollar as they face everything from higher grocery prices, eggs, to trying to buy just that first car or even maybe that first home.

And interest rates to them matter as they do everywhere else, but they're even more. Now, I will offer the president has made great strides uh in making progress for Iowa families and wage growth is moderating nationwide. Many in Ians still feel though that inflation spikes impact them. And with the president focused on rebuilding the middle class, I'd like to talk a little bit about how the Fed ensures that this heart of the heartland uh can feel the benefits of a soft landing as you've laid out.

Oh, you're asking me how you will feel the benefits of the of the of the Well, I would think um pretty open-ended question. So I and I think you know our goal is to keep the economy strong, the labor market strong and price stability fully restored. So that that's really what we can provide is a long period of stable prices and we define that as um as chairman Greenspan used to which is people can make economic decisions in their families and their jobs.

They don't have to think about inflation RFK positive closer to that place but we're not quite there yet. That's the main thing we can now do. And that if once we restore price stability, you know, very soundly, that gives us the ability to react more strongly to downturns in the economy without having to worry about inflation.

And so that that's, you know, we have limited uh scope, but those are two very very important things that we can deliver that benefit all families. I would agree. So I guess I would also like to focus here on the short term. The Federal Reserve has slightly lower rates to ease borrowing costs for rural communities and long-term trade negotiations strengthen our global position.

Would you agree that the agricultural sector in particular is vulnerable to both interest rates and recognize international markets and how would the Fed evaluate the unintended consequences of policy on commodity dependent economies in a state like Iowa? So we, you know, we have a um a number of our This one wasn't about real estate, but I'm waiting.

Bank presidents represent districts which have extensive agricultural operations and families and farms. And so we hear from them kind of all the time, but we hear from them in great detail around every FOMC meeting. And we understand that time's, you know, pretty challenging right now in in uh in the agricultural sector.

We take that into account. um you know ultimately we're responsible for the aggregate level of the economy and for keeping inflation under control and maximum employment. So but we do very much uh think about and and take into consideration the agricultural sector and the people in it. We appreciate that evaluation.

I know there are farmers back home as well as um you know our bankers who value that because they're the ones providing the capital for it. I want to talk a little bit on the national security side as the vice chair of NATSC here. If foreign actors begin weaponizing treasury sales or dollar reserves, what tools does the Fed have to help preserve financial stability and the dollar status as a reserve currency within the world?

You know, essentially what what makes us the reserve currency is a few things. It is uh our great democratic institutions. It is that we have uh open capital markets, very open capital markets. And it is that we have price stability and the rule of law. Those are the things that make you the reserve currency.

and what you can keep that status as long as you maintain those things. Of those things, the thing that we contribute is price stability over the long run. So people who want to invest in or use the dollar, they can be confident in the value of the dollar over time that it won't fluctuate wildly or decline in ways that and so that's our role really.

Treasury is responsible for stewardship of the dollar, but we have that role to play as well. Very good. Uh in the brief time that I have left here, I just came back from a trip to Saudi and the Arab states. Um big concern here in the world we're living in right now with Iran looking at asymmetric ways to threaten the United States on the rise.

Question here earlier on cyber security feel confident the Fed is doing everything they can to protect um us from a cyber threat. So our part of it is the All right, man. You're doing the little run up again, bro. Abbott and all of them went crazy. I think everybody delayed on those. I didn't want to touch them, but Abbott was lagging behind Dexcom and now they hit and there were other parts of the 4x man that was amazing in Yeah, that was the news on RFK making us aware of cyber issues and making sure that we're all ready uh and you know we never sleep on this because it's it's always getting harder.

Thank you, Mr. Chair. I yield my time. Gentleman's time's expired. The gentleman from California, Mr. Vargas is also a ranking member and my colleague on the monetary policy task force is now recognized for 5 minutes. Thank you very much, Mr. Chairman. Thank you, ranking member. Appreciate it. And of course, Mr.

Pal, thank you very much, Chairman Pal, for being here. Um, I'm 64 years old. You're a little bit older than I am. In my lifetime, I know what the most dramatic economic event is that at least that I believe. In your lifetime, what do you think is the most dramatic economic event that you live through as a country, as a world?

So, as an adult, I would say um the global financial crisis and the pandemic. No, just one. You get to pick one. Big events. Sorry. You get to pick one. You pick two. Just one. I would say there's a third, which would be the great inflation. So, I'm going the wrong way here. You're going the wrong way.

Yeah, just pick one. Uh I'd say the global financial crisis was in a lot of ways scarier than the pandemic. Uh for me, yeah, it it's interesting because both of them were ones that I lived through too. And I have to tell you, the most dramatic for me was the pandemic cuz you're a [ __ ] In so many ways, I'd never seen anything like it where everything closed down.

I remember flying here from San Diego where I live. 737 and there were four passengers. There were four of us. Of course, some idiot sits right next to me. I like, "What are you doing, you stupid move boy?" But anyway, making us look bad. It it is interesting that we didn't fall into the recession and we didn't fall into a depression.

I was really scared about what was going to happen because of the way we closed down. We didn't know it was going to go. The Lord is my provider. We didn't know was going to happen. And I think a big reason for that was walk through with faith. I don't need the strength that we had at the Fed and and the country came together and said, you know, we're going to figure this thing out.

And we did that. You didn't panic. Um you guys are very independent. I I think everyone did their job. You panicked and you were The reason I say that is because I do worry about the independence of the Fed now going forward. So question, can the president appoint himself as the Fed chair? It's a question, but not for me.

You're the Fed chair. You should know. You should know what the requirements are to be the Fed chair. Can he appoint himself? You should know who could take your job. You don't know that question. Still going. What is the Fed chair? What is the requirements to be the Fed chair? confirmed by the nominated by the president, confirmed by the Senate.

I think I think you probably have to be a US citizen probably, but I'm not sure. Okay. So, so far it seems like the president fits those. He's a US citizen. He can appoint he can propose himself and I assume that senators over there could confirm. Why couldn't he become the Fed chair also? Again, not a question for me.

Okay. I wouldn't speculate. The reason I asked that is because again I I do think that we have a great system because of the independence of the Fed. And it worries me that more and more and I I assume I'm not going to ask you this embarrassing question although I would like to you know whether you read all the things that he says about you.

I'm sure you do or some people tell you. Yeah. But um I won't tell you what they are. But I'm glad you've been independent and I think that that's so important because you do look at long terms. It it's not misleading. You know that we want you all to lower the rates. We you know that both sides, right?

You get that. The answer could be yes or no. Honestly, I'm not sure. I do know that. I I've talked to members from our side. We'd love to see the rates go down and I've heard from a number of my colleagues on the other side. We'd love to see the rates go down. I talked to unanimously like to see that one's moving with the medical devices.

I heard that from a lot of members privately. In any case, we have to do you were appointed and confirmed. My colleagues and I do what we think is right. That's exactly right. And that's why I say it because I think you it's not lost on you that we all want the rates to go down. In fact, it's very real when you say, you know, someone's locked in at 3% at their house.

you know, their interest rate. So, they don't want to move and get a 7% rate. I mean, they they don't want to pay that. That's that's real. My colleagues mentioned that that's truthful and that's why it's so important to be independent. Now, lastly, I do want to ask because again, it's so darn important to have an independent Fed chair and independent Fed.

Secondly, the dual mandate. Um, I respect the chairman very much um real estate. Hope that doesn't hurt him politically. But that being said, started off a little ask you a question about the dual mandate in a way that he quoted somebody else and said, is that the way you see it? I do want to see how do you see the dual mandate?

It seems to me that you gave a little bit of a preference to price stability over maximum employment. Is that the case? No, I think the two the two things are are equal under the law. But the if the thought is, you know, we haven't defined it in exactly the way that that the chairman said, but not not with I do think it's a reasonable way to define it, which is the maximum employment is the maximum maximum level that's sustainable or consistent with price stability over the long run.

That doesn't make it to me an inferior. Gentleman's time is expired. Um, thank you. I think it's kind of implicit in a way. chair now recognize the gentleoman from Michigan, Miss McClan, for five minutes. Thank you and thank you so much for being here. I appreciate it. Um, as a as a business owner, small business owner myself, access to capital is extremely important to me.

Um, so I want to talk a little bit about the Fed's balance sheet and just get a better understanding of how we're thinking about it. I mean, some experts say that the Fed's balance sheet or large balance sheet is distorting the markets and keeping long-term rates, let's say, too low. Um, also, I think it limits the access to capital, right?

Historically, if if I'm accurate, um the balance sheets been about four trillion um prior to the pandemic, then we raised it almost doubled it to about 9 trillion, and now it's on a kind of a downward trajectory to about 7.2 again, if my math is right. Um do you think we're on the right track in in shrinking this balance sheet?

I do. Yes. Do you I'm trying to get a sense of what the landing spot in your opinion should be. Do you think we'll get back to the 4 trillion? No. No. So we're we're in what we call an ample reserves regime and that what that means is that that um the quantity of reserves demand is fluctuates and this means the quantity of reserves can fluctuate without affecting interest rates.

And we think that's a good thing to what that means is there's going to be a lot of liquidity in the banks and in the in the in the financial system. That's a good thing. There wasn't enough liquidity before the global financial crisis. That was one of the problems. We have some shrinking left to do on the balance sheet, but we're not going to get down as far as you asked.

Where do you think we'll land? Because my concern, let me let me start. I'm sorry. Where do you think we'll land? You know, I can't give you an exact number, but you know, we're going at a pretty modest pace now. We've slowed down kind of cut in half twice the speed. We think we can go for a good while at this speed and we'll learn as we go.

So you think the trajectory so to speak will remain? Yes. And I think the fact that it's quite a gradual trajectory now is going to enable us to find that level that is ample and not scarce. Uh when reserves are scarce you get a lot of volatility and that doesn't that doesn't help. So I think that's a good framework.

You know the the ample reserves framework I think serves the country well. And you're not concerned in terms of the access to capital? I mean, as a business owner, that's what I look at is I got to be able to get capital. And some people are saying, you know, we're really hanging on to our our cash.

I I think if you know, honestly, I think you if you if you took the trouble to go back to a much more would have no effect whatsoever push-ups in 20. I'm going to do a strategy. Wouldn't do that at all. We're not we're not pulling capital articles of companies. That's not what's happening. You have a big balance sheet.

Green, wasn't that the guy who has a lot of liquidity and then got kicked out flush with liquidity in for the most part and that actually enables lending. It's it wouldn't it probably wouldn't have much of an effect one way or the other if you back to a smaller balance sheet. So you're comfortable with the liquidity, you're comfortable with the access to capital, excuse me.

I mean um you know we look at credit availability for smaller businesses and you know right now conditions are a little bit tight. Yeah, it's tough for people in my district. it it's I would say they're not they're not terribly tight, but we we do see that there's some tightness, but that's that's not really a function of the Fed's size of the Fed's balance sheet.

That's just that banks are perhaps a little riskaverse in this uh uncertain environment. I think it all marriage goes together and is kind of intertwined, but I appreciate that. Um I want to just switch gears a little bit. Are you seeing any signs of financial instability uh building beneath the surface that we may not be uh seeing maybe on top of the surface whether it's in commercial real estate, private credit, regional banking, any I don't know anything you're seeing underneath the surface that could derail the growth path that not really.

No, I mean you mentioned there there are a lot of of pots that we need to watch to see that they don't boil over. CRA, you know, has been a problem for 5 years. We're working our way through it. I think we're we're making good progress there. It's not getting worse. It's getting a little better. Um private credit is um you know, has its real positive attributes.

A lot of it's not funded by deposits. So, it's not um as long as it's not funded by retail or by deposits, it's actually fine for financial stability. But it's a very big and fast growing sector and it hasn't been through a real downturn. So and it's quite diverse. So I think it's it bears close watching.

I mean asset prices are high. Um but leverage is not particularly high for corporations and households historically. It's not particularly high for banks. Banks are well capitalized. So I think I think overall financial stability conditions are you know are not uh not in a place where we worry a lot.

So we're really poised in a pretty good position economically. Gentle lady's time is third. Absolutely. Thank you, Mr. Chair. Now recognize the gentleman from Illinois, Mr. Casten, for five minutes. Thank you, Mr. Chairman and Chair Powell. Nice to see you again. Um, we had we had spoken in February about stop because again y'all saw the headline within a second and if you actually acted in that moment you made 500% but then I'm seeing a lot of you post play very [ __ ] I already banned the other game.

You know what I'm saying? You should call I wonder if you could speak. Well, first I'm going to work under the assumption that is that all these plays went up 500 economic data than just about anyone in our country. Think about what you guys are saying. I am more worried about and the opportunity when we had the best opportunity inflation all the data we get from those resources.

How concerned should we be, you know, if if an efficient economy depends on at some level on equal access to information, how concerned should we be that our business community with some of these cuts to BLS and elsewhere is not going to be able to allocate capital as efficiently as otherwise would be in this moment?

You know, the reality is that that all of essentially all the data data we use overwhelmingly is public data. The difference isn't that we have more access. The difference is that this is our job and we follow the data very very closely. But you know the employment reports, the CPI reports, the analysis of that by many economists internal and external.

We just spend all of our time on this stuff. But I think large businesses have the exact same Well, but I'm talking about like has announced they're cutting 350 indexes. So that that data is no longer going to be public data. That's a different thing. Okay. So, if you're asking about that, I again I I I don't want to say and it's it wouldn't be true to say that okay, new high on the spot literally hit the high ticker.

That's just not true. The data overall, we're getting close, you guys. It's all these jobs are remember last time you hit this level, you sold off by one point below or whatever time. But yeah, 6086, one more point, then we get into the 90s and then the survey will be 6100. lower volatility for example in the in the labor market data lower response rates and things like that that's not good you know we should be getting better and better and better I would add the private sector by the way we use more and more big private data private sector data sets and that is a relatively new thing last five or 10 years of it doesn't replace the US government data has been the gold standard yeah and I guess I get concerned because some of those data sets of course you have to pay for and not every business can afford that um I I want to on staying on the data pointed picking up on what Mr.

Heims was saying. I I think only a fool would predict that was him highlighting how Bloomberg is a monopoly, scams the government and charges the government. They even ban people like Josh very expensive platform. That's why created his own proprietary stuff. Now they limit his advertisements and try to get him banned on YouTube.

But he still is able to provide over 40 to 50,000 unique viewers every single day for free9. Thank you. But I would like to have some smart person taking a position on what is happening in oil markets and the the energy information administration has now announced they're not going to run the international energy outlook anymore.

Should we be concerned about that piece of data as we think about what's happening in global energy markets right now given given all the pressures between various suppliers of where they'd like to see the price go and the wild card that is Iran and the the Red Sea? You know, I I don't particularly know that that that specific report.

Um, you know, I I I know there are many many many uh entities that do data analysis around uh around energy and oil and and the availability of it and the price of it and all those things. So I I can't speak to that one report. Okay. Well, I mean again just my own experience before coming here, I relied a lot on that and if I was in my past job, I would now basically have to rely on the International Energy Agency, which in general was not as robust as the DOE data.

Um, and so it's a gap and and I guess maybe I'll just close with, you know, I think a lot of this gets tied together with I don't even know how we research which would presumably thank all of you who have supported real. That's why every single one of you has our back, bro. You're helping us provide for free.

It's the other people who get in the way and we have to protect ourselves pushing through. Shout out the community, man. Especially if you believe in what I believe and you believe this is worthwhile to get to all of retail. You may not like my politics, but we helping people get money and keep it necessary.

You know, I'm not going to take a position on on on the bill on the reconciliation pack. Oh, come on. Talk about the bill like that that don't relate. That's all I want them to talk about. All of this like teasing about real estate. It does have to do with the bill. Time is expired. Montana, Mr. Downing for 5 minutes.

Thank you, Mr. Chair. Our national debt now exceeds $36 trillion. Congressional Republicans have made it our mission to rein in out of control spending from repealing the Green News scam, enacting common sense Medicaid and SNAP reforms, and rescending wasteful spending. Mr. Chairman, you've repeatedly said our national debt is not currently at an unsustainable level, but it is on an unsustainable path.

Can you describe what the point of no return looks like when our debt reaches an unsustainable level? So there's no way to know exactly what that is. Um and uh the green you guys remember ultimately if the debt is growing faster than me by definition at some point it I would argue with people on the Bloomberg chats.

I think that's what led to my banning. We're not we don't have oversight responsibility over the fiscal authorities you know limited themselves to saying people like knew a lot of [ __ ] was scammy and they were just like no it's not. So you'd see rates go up. It would be very challenging. I think if you wait too long to fix the problem, you'll have to fix the problem eventually.

If you wait too long, it'll be much more painful. Yes, I believe the US dollar status as the global reserve currency is essential. It allows the US to borrow at lower costs, which stimulates economic growth and increases standards of living. The Trump administration in a Bloomberg, I could honestly, and I'm not listen, you guys already task force hearing.

I don't have to [ __ ] say I don't need to hype you up to get paid offarket. So, I'm being honest with you after spending time in both chat rooms. I genuinely believe that you guys are more sophisticated than most of the people in the Bloomberg chat. Bloomberg just has like one out of every thousand of them is like a [ __ ] boss.

You know what I'm saying? And they don't even engage in the chat room. But all the people on the Bloomberg chat room, I could definitely put a case that the chat is more sophisticated out of the housing market near record highs despite the rate of [ __ ] down. So, Mr. Chairman, I appreciate the Fed's They do they just have first access to capital.

They're just rich kids and you've always welcomed into the Fed and I also all of them are just little spoiled rich. They have the tools and the money, but they don't have the work ethic. They don't have the think for themselves that mind. So let's go baby. It's ours to oversight practices of other governments into their central banks that could be replicated.

That's why I'm here to train you. You will be bigger. It's an interesting question. I want to think about that. I'll continue effective oversight from this committee and from the other committee in the Senate. And um I think that's important. Would you be supportive of an outside independent group of analysts or economists that conducts a periodic review of the Fed's economic assessments modeling?

So let's before we that's those are ideas I' I'd like to think about and discuss privately before we so do you have any other ideas to increase oversight in the Federal Reserve? I think you know like like my predecessors I've fostered you know more and more transparency at the margin and I think that's appropriate.

Uh I I think transparency is critical if we're uh TSM was that moving today and then Wayfair on the high. Spy getting a stick. I've tried to up I'll devote some more thought to that question. Well, I look forward to a couple things moving right now. Thank you for your responses. Remember, we're above the level now.

It's just two more levels at the 90s and then 61 is a gentleman from Texas, Mr. Gonzalez, for five minutes. Thank you, Mr. Chairman, and uh thank you, Chairman Pal, for being here with us today. Um, I I uh I understand uh commenting on some policy issues are outside of your purview, but I have one that I think is heavily impactful on the American economy right now.

And I want to underscore the scale and impact of the ICE raids that we're seeing across the country. Pew Research estimates that over 10.5 million undocumented individuals live in the United States, more than 3.3% of the population today. And according to the nonpartisan American Immigration Council, removing this workforce could cost the US economy between 1.1 and 1.7 trillion in GDP and billions in tax contributions, including 22.6 6 billion in social security and 5.7 billion in Medicare funds that are increasingly critical as our population continu for a long time.

Many of them have been here for a very long time. That's why I plan to introduce the save the American workforce act which would establish an employee sponsored temporary work authorization for undocumented immigrants who have been in the country for 3 years or longer and have never been in any kind of trouble.

No criminal liability though. I just needed it to browser. Additionally, last week I sent a letter to President Trump urging him to indiscriminate deportations and issue an executive order that would do exactly what my bill does to protect American businesses that need a workforce. We have something the last I heard.

So yeah, uh UiPath I don't I only used it for the browser stuff. every other AI stuff. I was just coding my own [ __ ] with Python, but I used Aiipath because I needed it to I needed to do a repetitive task and then I recorded my screen and it created a bot and I did it for free. So, I used UiPath for free to achieve that.

But other than that, I don't do like I don't have any crazy systems or automation processes that that I rely on. I do for my new stuff, but I that's just through licenses and other stuff. And then once it's set up, you know, I don't I don't need to like mirror a clicking process. So, but if you need to mirror it, then then the UiPath is good for free.

Like if you need to do click here, click here, go to this, have it go this, scroll down, go here, next page, and then repeat that a million times, UiPath is going to do it for free. And it was good. It was like easy. It was it if you're computer savvy, you'll figure it out. It took me a couple minutes, but then like I'm saying, you could record browser and it will it will copy it.

Like that's what you could do. So like I could probably make one where it could identify 3%. So look on the screen, identify 3% and then I could have it click on an option and then buy it. But it'll be a little glitchy. But yeah, you could do it for for free. I did it with all of that. That's why I brought up the company because I was like, "Dude, this is cool." We don't you know we don't quick disc publicly you know have a view on it.

It just is what it is. So yeah um you know we're our responsibility maximum employment price stability many many other factors affect those goals but we don't we don't make those goals we don't make the policy M&MD could relate depression for 5 years research fiscal policy he said the same thing about big booty latent we're living and be healthy and you'll be happy I would love to have that it would be great if y'all were having that conversation in the administration.

But moving on, it is almost the US dollar has also long been the world's dominant reserve currency, but that position is facing growing pressure. As of 2024, BRICS nations led by China, including Brazil, Russia, India, and South Africa have stepped up to reduce their reliance on the dollar and a bricks meeting in July.

China for instance has expanded the use of the yuan and energy transactions and crossber payments while bricks is actively developing alternative payment systems that could erode the dollar's global role. Uh at the same time inconsistent and unpredictable economic policies from the white house have contributed to a drop in dollar path from now at its lowest level in three years.

brought it up cuz it's like I ended up using seen UiPath so many times and it reminds me of a [ __ ] stock but then like legitimately I used it in my business. So like I'm saying I needed to do work and I had a very repetitive task and then I tried to code a bot for it and it was too hard and then I needed a browser bot.

I needed something to follow my browser and automate it and that's where UiPath came in and I was like holy [ __ ] it's a real product and then it and yeah that's and I got excited but I didn't buy it. I don't own the stock. I just thought it was a cool tech especially with all this automation working on ideas to make sure I did it for free.

I just like payment systems that support the dollar. I think they're a leader in automation, you know, other I say leader tenatively. I know time has expired. The chair now recognizes the gentleman from Florida, Mr. Ardopoulos for 5 minutes. Thank you very much, Mr. Chairman. Thank you, Chairman P, for being here today and answering these questions for us.

Very much appreciated. Looking back uh over the last few years, I think the the question a lot of people have been asking me as they really were suffering through the challenges with higher prices across the board. You know, they got as high as over 9% inflation in 2022. And there's a lot of discussion about was it the Ukraine, was it transitory, was it postco, uh what was the reason?

If as you look back now uh in those years and this is your field of expertise, what is your if you look back and you're teaching a history class, what do what would you blame the the uh increase in prices on back in that time period? So I'll start with the fact that it was extremely global. So we saw there literally was a point at which not a single country in the world had inflation 2% or below.

So it was everywhere. So you have to look to common factors and I I would say that the the pandemic and the closing of the global economy and then the reopening of it uh in all cases with some support that's that's a big part of the story. Clearly though there's a role in that for fiscal policy. There's a role in that for monetary policy and um I think I like to think all of those factors were were involved and um you know it's but when it happens everywhere in the world you can't you can't look to one thing.

You got to look to something a common factor and I think that common factor is what happened around the pandemic. Sure. Good. And and build on that idea if I mean I know I hate it Monday morning quarterback but if you had to do it over again you had this opportunity as you know the rates stay pretty flat in 2021 as inflation creeped up.

What would you do differently today if you had the opportunity to look back and and make some changes? I have perfect hindsight in this. Yes sir. If you had it. Yeah sure. So I clearly I would have raised rates a little earlier. I honestly don't believe it would have made much difference to the to the outcomes but we would have looked a lot smarter.

Um but uh that's that's something I would have done. The other thing is you mean you know ultimately um we did get all the way back to full to 2% inflation just about without having a big increase in in employment. So uh that's that's that was not at all expected. So I I don't know how that would have affected my behavior, but somehow things really came out much better than everyone had anticipated was was that it would take [ __ ] 5 trillion will do that.

But it didn't. And and the other pressure flooded the global economy with money. So it was impossible for anybody to go broke unless they really amazing how it came out like this. And now we have massive inflation that has only been witnessed one or two other times throughout this country. How many months of steadiness do you need before you might look at an even larger rate cut from the 4.33 I think we have today?

Yeah. So, you're you're right. Um u inflation the the non-tariff parts of inflation that we've been working on for 3 four years are are behaving really well and that that was our forecast but it's good to see see it coming true. I would say we have we've expected that um tariffs take a while to work their way through the distribution chain several months and I would say we would expect to see meaningful effects you know you know kind of high bro if we don't you know we'll be learning something you know may we have a highly adaptive uh flexible economy and it's certainly a possibility that the that the tariffs that we expect will come through in a much smaller level.

We we don't we can't know that until we actually see it, but I think we'll be learning as we go. SPY high tickers up almost on full gas. Again, we got a couple more levels and then it's going to stop at 6100. Otherwise, if it goes past again, you have 692 697 and then like 699 give or take. 699 might have a little resistance.

You put the global I get that. But at the same time, there's pretty I think you could go to 6125 if it doesn't stop at 6100. 6125 and then that's it next stop all time factor I would say legitimately fiscal policy definitely played a role I think if if you take a step back from those things what happened was demand came back so much stronger than we expected you remember if in late 21 early 22 you you had the pandemic still going on omocrron going was it 21 kahan 21 to 22 and demand was just much more much stronger than than people expected.

And by the way, the supply side was much strong slower to recover. So that's the labor force. That's all of the uh snarled up supply chains. The supply side took a long time to recover and demand was much stronger. That that story created the high inflation behind that tariffs. I mean, sorry, fiscal policy played a role.

The spending did, monetary policy played a role, uh and the pandemic. But you would agree that the government did play it. Everything went up, bro. all of your down names that kind of were guttered and then the leaders a lot of 52 league highs today. Now recognize a gentleman from Illinois, Mr. Foster, who's also ranking member of the financial institutions subcommittee for five minutes.

Yeah, bro. Thank you. I can't believe it. The small account's going to hit 30. But remember what I was just telling you. IDF has set back of Iran missile project by year mandate. Do you believe that uh that preserving the the US dollar uh and the primacy of the US dollar is part of your job description?

So, how do you feel about it? But yeah, do you guys remember what I was telling you the other day? This is why. And like I said, man, we're going to turn the big long-term into a house. I can't wait to give you guys that example. But I said, man, we started this account for this was the real YouTube account, man.

This was the account that I made to show all of you that no matter how much money you can make 200 bucks a month, 300 bucks a month, you make minimum wage, you could create an account like this. So, but this is what I was high remember I was telling you guys the other day how like in the last month or two now that the account is this size you're having multiple days where in one day now it's moving how much you would save in a month.

That's amazing bro. So you guys save money and it's going to suck for a couple of years, but after you eat [ __ ] man, and you put this investment in, it's going to start working for you when you start investing in quality. And 10 years minimum. Oh, Merc. Yo, Merc is getting merckked. Uh, it's down by.3.

Not big enough yet. It could turn into something, but either way, most other medical healthc care companies doing good today. small businesses, things like that, or intermediatesized businesses. And we're already seeing layoffs in the big tech firms. You sold your Starbucks because you were in line and you didn't see anybody.

Forgive me. I'm banning you, Christian. Uh just and I love you. I don't want to hurt your feelings, but to prove to you and everybody else that's a very emotional move. You don't want to do that. uh the fact that you told me I think you wanted attention so I'm giving it to you but it's going to cost $4.99 so that's not a good move that was very emotional but I hope it works out but that that's not what you do in the long term for employment and some of the things the amount of sad stories that I've heard like that consumers and producers you know how many people they've missed out bro just for random emotional cell for no reason I don't think anybody Apple I certainly can't make any positive statements with Great com KKR Apple buy at the high.

You still got gas, bro. That at least at the beginning AI will will replace a lot of just the watch list for DVR for jobs rather than just augmenting people's labor over a long run. It looks it the history shows that generally new technology raises productivity and creates new jobs over time, but it can be disruptive in the very short term.

from an AI. Anyone who's been exposed to AI has to be kind of stunned with what it's capable of. And the tow charging for having a car less than a day. Yes. They say that they charged me when the cops towed my [ __ ] The things you're looking at, I got it the next day. I got it under 24 hours. They still char I think I had to pay like a,000 bucks total.

I think it is a 350 for the towing you would want in a truck, 250 for storage, and then another three $400 fine. unknowable but uh but certainly to be important effects on the labor market and I hear the same thing. I think it's $6.99 if you do it on Apple that they can see a way to 4.99 if you do it on the YouTube on the computer.

I don't think we know that. Yeah, but the question is do you have are you developing a TEDoc or expanding rural health access risk and this is probably not oh [ __ ] remember Teddoc was getting the Citron pump yesterday. Elodok again the last time [ __ ] RFK had a mention that was the other ones and they went crazy the economy are you actually developing a playbook in case the shock is real so yeah Teddoc expanding access to tele medicine he didn't mention Teldoc again RFK that's what you saw with Abbott so now's your window so if it moves and it hits you're going to make money if not then that's it but if it pops up Don't start pumping plays 30 minutes from now.

You guys get what I'm saying? You want to act in the moment of the news coming out and then that's pretty much it and then follow up. But you should if you're going to wait, you should probably have a different reason to play it. Okay. Well, but you know, think about it. I urge you to think about it because and what you will do when if that job shocking.

Um, so last uh week, Fed put out a request for information on ways to mitigate check and payment fraud. uh despite a decline in the use of checks, check fraud is really very prevalent and I was happy to join Chair Hill in a sending you a letter um and another banking regulator. We're going June 20. Happy birthday, baby.

I love San Antonio. But summarize what you I don't think I can make it in two days, bro. To that letter and then we got to get ready for the farmach. So, if I buy this farm, bro, I'm probably not going to travel for a while. We just know we we just have started a request for information and You guys could come overcess.

I'll invite you over. Gathering a bunch of information on that issue. Okay. And if you could say what you're actually going to do in response to that, gentleman's time is expired. Thank you. Yield back. Gentle yields back. I now recognize myself for five minutes. Chair pal. We've discussed this several times before, but the issue remains, so I continue to raise it.

I sent you a letter several months ago urging you to seek public comment and permanently. We could do a car meet and ESLR. There's no road particularly given the constraints. So like there's a road to get there but then there's not like there's at least like a quarter mile of no road and then the whole property is tomorrow to discuss the issue and I know you Mr.

Flood but I want to clarify a couple of things. the last time you testified before the commission. It's not in San Diego, but it is in California levels of liquidity in the Treasury market and that one obvious thing to do would be to reduce how binding the SLR on intermediate capacity. Okay, new high.

Are you considering changes in the SLR and ESLR and will you consider exempting treasuries and reserves from the SLR and ESLR? So I I do think we've you know we've effectively raised the um the capital tax on all kinds of intermediation activities and that certainly includes um treasury market activities.

So I've long favored uh leverage ratio reform and you know so we're putting out a document for comment which will seek comments on on uh one particular proposal and and alternatives to that proposal as I mentioned earlier. Thank which I think answers my next question which will you look at changes at the leverage ratios that constrain a bank's ability to participate.

Yes, that that's the idea. Um in your view would allowing netting mechanisms for revenues on treasuries encourage participation in the market and would you consider looking at that with your credential counterparts? This is for derivatives. Mhm. Um my my first phone call on that would be to Vice Chair Bowman to ask her what she's planning, but uh I'm certainly open to that conversation.

Absolutely. Let's discuss the framework review. You've said that the review of the consensus statement is complete, but potential changes to communication strategies and tools may continue into the fall. Uh when can we expect the framework review to be complete? and will you provide opportunities to receive feedback uh from members, industry and the public on any changes the board is considering?

So we um I the framework review there are two parts of it. There's there's the consensus statement which contains and then there's communications on the first the the framework I think the meetings that needed to have to talk about the Dexcom mandate and the price stability mandate and what how we might pizza the framework now it now comes the the you know the discussion between participants on the committee all 19 of us about exactly what language to use in the new framework and we're just entering that phase between these two meetings in at the July meeting and hopefully we will be able to announce something near the end of the summer and I I I expect that that will be and we by the way we've we've talked about we've we've laid this out a little bit in the uh in the minutes as we go.

One last question. Cole members work the land. That's the plan. Because then if I bring 50 people to the property and they're like, you can't have 50 people. I'm like, they all work for me. Provide a justification for all working on the landm I think it's going to be a very rules that we talk about there.

the well but then again July seasonality gets very very good the other it happened in 23 happened a little bit but then now it's like it's already going uprisk now uh first difference rule is is is a very interesting concept which we can talk about online which has a lot of appeal but it can be a little bit volatile too and right now it's calling for a rate hike the other the other four are calling for us to hold our policy where it is the irony Thank you, Mr.

Chairman. I yield back the balance of my time and I turn to the gentleman from Oregon, Mr. Binham, for five minutes. Ms. Binham for most likely. But if I mean, that's the beauty like right like my plan was to start off with um stack the cash in the beginning of the year and then you know NVO sells off 40%.

Pizza goes down. So thank you. There's a good deal and we get new prices. I'm ready to go. home and if there is no new business across the country across my state are worried about inflation and rising costs and particularly for our state where we make chips, we um import export agriculture and we have apparel.

So nothing with Intel just started going up from the morning again today was very risk a lot of value plays on asking you and down value got a bid there. seeming to ignore the market chaos that the president I like the industry of tele has a lot of debt. My understanding one of the key responsibilities of the chair of the Federal Reserve is to stabilize prices and fight inflation.

Is that right? Yes. By my account, the president, President Trump has changed or announced a new tariff um or a delay of previously announced tariffs 19 times. And so has the president's everchanging tariff made it easier or harder to stabilize prices and fight in Bitcoin pop. So I I I by practice never comment on on things the president does or says as the administration tell me what you got.

Let me look at your portfolio administration again. There's a there's a Pepsi target on tariffs made it easier. It's not like a high quality good one. I'd wait unless you have something you could build around. But I feel you. I want to buy too, but prices just won't go down. I need a good job good quality otherwise we're already in the lead.

Again, we're hitting new highs today, guys. Every We do expect there will be hitting another high price set of price increases from some of the price increases through will from tariffs will flow through to the consumer. We don't be persistent or have updated yet. And so right now we're that's why it's like if there's something good we take it otherwise you ride in your sense that back to school will be affected the holiday season would be affected.

You mentioned it a little bit earlier on how how you didn't say the exact time frame but you thought maybe a few months we would start to see changes from we're going to be learning as we see we'll get a yeah you're up almost% from the low of liberation inflation report well before that about 26 maybe more.

you know, we're going to be looking to see we we expect to start to see I saw co moving earlier through in the morning channel and if we don't see right now that'll be telling us something we'll be learning from that. Um and by the way we all we'll also be looking at the labor market if it weakens unexpectedly.

We'll be looking at that too. We will continue to adapt to the evolving situation as we have been doing. Thank you. So what market conditions would make it so that the Federal Reserve would be able to lower interest rates which would also lower costs. So, as I just mentioned, I would say if if we were to see that uh inflation is not coming through as our forecast and and other public forecast, I think this should wrap up soon.

Suggested that would push over a cut sooner. There's been a lot of headlines. Everybody sudden real estate, which again, you guys, I've been telling you, I think real estate in the spending bill, I don't know, man. You're going to want that property cuz this is just [ __ ] odd. But I'm probably going to end it.

We're going to go to Felo here in about 15 minutes. What do you think Americ is time stable prices and maximum employment? That that is that's what we want to deliver. And you know, we we want people to to feel so confident of price stability that they never think about inflation. That's where we were for a very long time.

And we're we've made a lot of progress back to that place, but we're not quite there yet. and we're going to we're we're going to finish that job. Is there a plan that the administration has presented on how it plans to lower costs as opposed to providing tax breaks for billionaires? Again, I don't really it's really not up to me to u discuss the administration's priorities and policies.

I'm going to quickly switch gears here. It seems to me like you're under a lot of pressure from the president to address the national debt. True, false. Sorry. Are you under pressure from the president to address the national debt? So our role is maximum employment and price stability. Fiscal policy is the responsibility of of Congress and so it's not it's not really within our ambit.

I think that um despite all of the the talk about national debt, the this big beautiful trash bill um continuing to do that will actually raise the national debt. So, um, thank you for answering the questions today and continuing to to work to lower costs. And the lady's time is expired. Thank you. Thank you.

The chair now recognizes the gentleman from Kentucky, Mr. Bar, who is chairman of the subcommittee on financial institutions for five minutes. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Uh, and thank you, Chairman Pal, for the generosity of your time. We're at the witching hour, but appreciate your endurance. Uh and with respect to the my gentle lady's line of questioning right uh potentially result from a massive tax increase a $4 trillion tax increase would a recession help the debt and deficit picture?

No tax receipts would go down and all that. Yeah. So I I think I think this this sky is falling scenario about the one big beautiful bill we have to put into context. Uh, and I'm not asking you, Chairman Pal, to comment on this, but this is my editorial response to my colleague. A massive $ four and a half trillion dollar tax increase that would put us into a recession is not a recipe for fiscal discipline.

Chairman Pal, um, let me uh switch gears to tariffs. Governor Waller argued in a speech earlier this month that tariffs uh might result in a uh in just a one-time price increase as opposed to increasing long-term inflation expectations, especially since this Congress has not pumped massive spending into the economy as Democrats did under President Biden.

Um on this issue of a one-time price increase versus inflation expectations, do you generally agree with Governor Waller's analysis? So I I do agree that um uh basically if things are a one-time increase then you don't respond to them. That's the whole idea is there's a shock to prices. It could be an oil shock, could be a tariff shock.

Uh generally speaking, you don't you don't respond if you are highly confident that it will just be a one-time shock. I think this the current situation though is is a complicated one and I think my a number of my colleagues and I feel like it's a decision we need to take with some care and the reason is because you know we're not at price stability in 2018 when 2018 and 19 when when the president's tariffs were put into place not only did we not raise rates we cut rates three times that year because the tariffs were so much smaller these tariffs are many times larger and they do raise kind of more concern concern.

In 2019, we hadn't had high inflation in 30 years. Now, we're only a few years of reduced away from high inflation. So, I think I think we think that uh they may well prove to be a one-time thing, but in the meantime, it's a decision we want to approach with some care. I think we've made a lot of progress towards getting closer to that 2% goal.

Does the Fed take into account the disinflationary fiscal policies uh like supply side tax cuts, deregulation, and more energy production? that could be a counterweight to whatever one-time price increase uh that might materialize as a result of tariffs. So we we we look at all we look at aggregate inflation not any particular kind and I'm very gratified at the performance of services inflation which has come down now that was the very sticky inflation.

So I think overall the inflation picture is actually pretty positive. Chairman Pal, we're looking forward to this rule making um later this week addressing um Treasury market liquidity. Um can you can you talk about how um banks are constrained from uh holding US treasuries and other low as a result of going back to Palestine but leverage dumping yes when all of this is kind of just holding banks are bound by the leverage ratio when that's the binding capital constraint then u that's going to make low sort of lowrisk low return assets um you know something you don't want to hold.

And so lots of fairly low-risk intermediation, including Treasury market intermediation gets taxed to the point with capital requirements that you that you just see less of it. So we've always I've always thought that it would be better if we had a leverage ratio that wasn't it was a backs stop rather than the binding thing.

And that's what this proposal is going to do. Well, let me preemptively thank you and vice chair of supervision Bowman for uh working on SLR reform uh to accommodate more um bank holdings of of treasuries um to stabilize our treasury markets. Uh finally, I'm pleased to see that the Fed join uh its inter agency counterparts and announce that you uh no longer plan to consider reputational risk in your examination process.

Senator Scott and I introduced the Firm Act to stop the weaponization of the supervision process uh to to stop the the targeting of of politically unfashionable groups. Our bill requires regulators to focus on the true risks uh as opposed to uh political factors. What was the Federal Reserve's thought process in implementing this common sense reform?

that it's common sense and uh you know I think this is an area where we we learned over the last couple of years that there really was a problem here. The reports were louder and louder and more and more troubling. So we we um you know we just thought let's take this off the table. It may it may be have been unintentional on the part of banks that just there was so much it was just such a gentleman's time is expired fraud issue that banks turned away people with with uh which they didn't intend to discriminate.

That's what the Thank you for helping us announce the membership. We will recognize Mr. Torres and Mr. Laddermilk then adjourn for our 1 p.m. agreed to hard stop time. And with that, the gentleman from New York, Mr. Torres is recognized for 5 minutes. Thank you. Uh, Chair Power, you spoke about elevated uncertainty and declining sentiment in the US economy.

Uh do you believe as I do that the economy would be in a better position but for the elevated uncertainty and declining sentiment created by the Trump tariffs? I don't want to be criticizing policies. I will say uncertainty has is it fair that it's fair to say that the policy created uncertainty? It's fair to say uncertainty was very elevated, but it's also fair to say that that u uncertainty uncertainty has actually come down since the peak, if you will, in April.

I think uh there's a different feeling out there now than there was 2 months ago, and it is more um it's more constructive feeling on the part of businesses, which you must be feeling too, but it's higher than it otherwise would be in the absence of the liberation day tariffs. you know, to to what extent was the elevated uncertainty a factor in keeping the Fed from cutting interest rates?

So, I I think that that is that's part of it. The truth is um damn Patrick, that's why you're trying to buy rates and we um in January cut rates since that's amazing, bro. That's a fat ass commission, dog. We like other forecast fairly substantial wave of let's buy a house come through to stock. get that commission and buy that one LA house that you had the off market for all that.

Let's find you a crib, bro. Yeah, once you get that check, bro. That's a fat ass commission. Good [ __ ] work. We don't see it. That will matter. Let's buy a house. If we do see it, that will matter. So, we we've just taken a cautious approach to not moving our policy until we have a little more confidence about the size and likely effects of that.

Sure. Power. Following the so-called liberation day tariffs in early April, we saw something the US economy had not seen in decades, a flight not to the US dollar as a safe haven, but away from it. And since President Trump's inauguration, the US dollar index has fallen by nearly 10%, marking the worst first half performance for the dollar since 1986.

At the same time, Japan, America's largest sovereign creditor, just saw the worst 20-year Japanese government bond auction since the 1980s, raising fears that it could reduce its holdings of US treasuries. Given these developments, do you believe, as I do, that the US may be transitioning from a period of dollar dominance to a period of dollar?

That's a fat ass commission, dude. That's not That's like no joke money right there. The Fed does not have responsibility to for the dollar. That's really the Treasury. But figure out guild popping crisper too. I wouldn't make that state. I don't know you a lot of healthare biotech. You got guild moving.

Remember they have the HIV drug about a week or two ago and then you had the RFK comments on teleah healthitors running too at the same time. I think come down. I don't have a headline yet. I I don't think it's, you know, I I would say these nar narratives of decline are are premature and and a bit overdone.

I want to ask about the debt. Uh the big beautiful bill would have ugly consequences for our nation's finances, adding more than $2 trillion to the debt if the provisions are temporary and far more if made permanent. Uh we've accumulated World War level World War II levels of debt, not during world, not during a world war, but during peace time.

uh interest payments on the debt have become the largest item in the federal budget after social security surpassing Medicaid, Medicare and military defense. To what extent is the US at risk of entering a debt spiral in which rising interest costs lead to ever larger deficits which in turn larger interest cost?

Yeah, I I think that um the US federal budget is on an unsustainable path. The debt is not at an unsustainable level right now, but the path is not sustainable. And I think the sooner we deal with that, and by we, I mean you, uh, it the better. Uh, the Trump administration has championed the unitary executive theory, the notion that the president has absolute power over all entities that wield executive power.

That theory, if taken to an extreme, would all but abolish the independence of the Federal Reserve. If monetary policy would be became nothing more than an expression of presidential will and whims, what havoc would that wreak on the US economy? I think that um independent central banks have proven over time to be a valuable and and critical institutional practice.

And I think that is because uh basically advanced economy democracies around the world have given their central banks a degree of operational independence. They assign them goals. You go do this and you stick to those things. We'll let you you know you may choose the means of achieving those goals. It's called instrument independence but not goal independence.

And I I think it's a very gentleman's time is expired. Very important practice. Gentleman's time is expired. Chair now recognizes our last member of the day. The gentleman from Georgia. Mr. Louder Milk for All right, we're going to move to Felo after this question. It's good to see you again. Literally, I'm going to be brief.

So maybe we can um get out of here right at time. As some of my colleagues know, I go to the bathroom. Make sure I urinate payments and caucus. Follow me on Instagram, the trading fraternity. Representative David Scott. And in the past, you and I have talked about payment related issues like Fed Now, but today I'd like to ask you about the failure of Synapse Financial Technologies, a third party service provider that connects banks with nonp bank FinTech and what it means for the bank and the non bank ecosystem.

Yo, did he just last year between Synapse Financial Technologies and involved Bank and Trust revealed a short shortfall in customer savings deposit? Oh, SNAPS. I thought he said I swear he said Synapse. There are still thousands of individuals who are not able to access their funds. All right, but yeah, this is about to end after this question.

I'm going to go to the bathroom and then get ready to move. Got an update on what the Federal Reserve is doing to ensure that customers regain access to their funds and is there anything that the Federal Reserve is considering to help prevent situations such as this going forward? So, I don't have a lot of specifics for you on that.

I am assured that we're still very much uh doing everything we can to try to get people their money back and uh and to avoid similar occurrences. Okay. Well, I said I was going to be brief and that was a brief answer. So, with that, I yield back. Mr. Chair, gentleman yields back. The chair would like to thank Chairman Pal for his testimony today.

And without objection, all members will have five legislative days to submit additional written questions for the witness to the chair. Questions will be forwarded to the witness for his response and chair Powell please respond no later than January 29, 2025. This hearing is adjourned. Oh, I thought I was unmuted.

Yeah, but that's it, baby. So, thank God that was a dud. You're going to get this tomorrow. And yeah, all of us I think the weird part it didn't really move the market, but you heard me if you were listening, bro. this this little uh like real estate thing is very odd and I I do agree. I think it has something to do with the bill.

My first thought, give me some time to give you guys a real breakdown of it, but my first thought is that maybe the spending bill is going to make real estate go crazy. And I think they're trying to set up the narrative now to blame it on Trump. Otherwise, it makes no sense why everybody would be uh, you know, be willing to do that.

So, yeah, bro, it is kind of crazy. So, other than that, Chadonia, we will see. The two-year auction shouldn't matter too much, but eyes on real estate and then that spending bill, bro, it's in a week or two and that is what's going to happen. No, I think that's a that was a live video. That was that wasn't He probably said 2025 by mistake.

Uh you could tell based on the topics that they talked about. It was very very odd. So that being said, that's why remember the last question was about Donald Trump becoming the Fed. That that's new. That's something that he said. So 3.786 verse 787. Yeah. Two year. Remember two years is tied more to policy.

That's why we don't really care about a two-year bond auction. It's not going to be as volatile. So, that being said, I love you, Chattonia. Game time. So, here's the beauty. You will need a membership just if you love me. But yeah, we're going to move to FO. Uh, I'm switching the videos so it's easier to organize, but since you guys helped get me out of YouTube prison, uh, we don't have any members only.

So, you could still listen to Felo, but again, if you're going to go to a separate video for Felo, just think about what you are doing uh, in that process. That means you want to listen to Jesus talk. If you don't, then I would go to Bloomberg or wherever you get your propaganda and they will provide you with that in an affiliate link.

So, have a good day. Thank you for being here and I hope I see you at Felo, baby. Peace.