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Hello, this is Honeybee. Let's start our conversation on the US stock chart. What you are currently looking at is the 4-hour chart for the US 10-year Treasury yield, which is showing a temporary downtrend. You can see that these two resistance lines have acted very strongly. So, regarding my outlook on the future of the yield, if it breaks below 4.38 on the daily chart—for example—I expect the yield to continue its further decline.
If that happens, US stocks could gain some upward momentum. However, if it holds this level, I believe it will continue to rebound technically, and consequently, US stocks could fall further. That is my view. Let's look at QQ first. In the case of QQQ, it showed a weak sideways trend yesterday. I have drawn another line on QQQ at 460.
Based on the closing price of the previous candle, if QQQ breaks above 460, I believe there is room for further upside. Since it has been fluctuating within a box range for roughly a month, I have identified the upper boundary of this range at 460. If I were to... If supply is insufficient, I think there will likely be a sell-off around here.
If looking at the daily chart, there is absolutely no problem in drawing this upward trend. It is rising well, and I interpret it as a retest of the previous high currently occurring. Regarding the Semiconductor ETF ( SourceGow), it is continuously forming a trading range. Excluding the slight drop below, you can expect it to fluctuate around this level, and I consider this to be the major resistance for the rise.
Therefore, in the case of Semiconductor as well, if supply is insufficient, it will likely drop around here. However, I do not think people will buy near this point. If it breaks above 238.5—I am referring to the hourly chart—I believe there is more room for upward movement. However, what I find somewhat ominous is that I look at human indicators and sentiment the most when trading stocks.
Among them, TQQQ ranks 3rd, SQU 5th, and QQ 8th; since retail investors have placed a lot of long bets, from my perspective, this is a zone where I do not really want to buy right now. Anyway, regarding QQQ and SOX, I think both are currently in this kind of trading range. I believe that the moment they break out above the range, it will open up to a further rise.
As for Tesla, well, there isn't much difference. It is truly fascinating how the stock price continues to move sideways like this. However, as I mentioned before, Tesla stocks typically form a range before suddenly revealing a direction, either up or down. I am still looking for an upward movement. So, I consider this to be just a process of building up supply, and the support line I am watching is still the 17th.
As for Nvidia, it has now entered the Bollinger Bands and has risen after continuously falling. So, should you buy now? I really don't think so. I saw some divergence on the Nvidia hourly chart. What I mean is, the highs are the same here and there, but the highs on the auxiliary indicators are getting lower.
This is a bearish divergence. Therefore, with this kind of divergence appearing, we can expect further decline. Even if it doesn't fall further, I believe there won't be any more rises like this. That is why I do not think buying Nvidia right now. Even looking at the daily chart, divergence is visible.
If you look here, the stock price high is the same, but the high of the auxiliary indicator has dropped. That is the CCI. We use this as the basic form. Therefore, I view it as difficult to expect further upside in Nvidia. While it might rise a few percent within this range to create a sense of buoyancy, I believe the end will ultimately be like this.
Regarding this "In," I have drawn a new box. I have marked it like this. As I mentioned in the video last Saturday, I would attempt the "In" one more time from this point. I stated that I would divide the "In" into three parts; I bought once around 25.4 and have n't bought yet. If I were to buy a second time, I think I would buy around this area, and if I were to buy a third time, I think I would buy around here.
Yes, that is correct. For the "In," I am watching this box and 25.3 closely. If it breaks out upward from 25.3 on the daily chart one more time, I believe a path for further upside opens up. Coinbase is very good at playing push and pull; yesterday, it pretended to go up early in the session but pulled back.
Even though it closed in the positive like this, it doesn't feel that great. So, regarding Coinbase (MBD), as I mentioned earlier, it is an altcoin index fund. Therefore, it is inevitably heavily influenced by the crypto market. To explain the very urgent situation I faced yesterday, let's look at the 15-minute chart.
To summarize, Coinbase is an altcoin index, and as I said before, when it's not a crypto bull market, if Bitcoin coughs, altcoins catch pneumonia. I don't think we are in a real bull market right now, so altcoins are heavily affected by Bitcoin's decline. How was the market yesterday? Yesterday, Bitcoin rose and then fell.
This was around the time the US market opened, so Bitcoin also dropped in the middle of the day. This is the Bitcoin 15-minute chart; if you look at it, after the US market opened, it pretended to rise for a bit, then just kept falling like this. Even this drop is a significant decline for Bitcoin. We can roughly say it fell by about 2%.
Let's look at some representative, very heavy altcoins. Ethereum fell a lot, right? In its case, it dropped by about 2%. If you look at Solar or Solar as well, it fell significantly. If Stacks and other coins had dropped by about 4%, they would be considered heavy altcoins, but very light altcoins have fallen.
Therefore, one could view this as Coinbase also being in a bad situation, but I believe there is absolutely no problem with Coinbase's overall rise. In its case, as long as it holds the $27 mark I drew, I think there will be no issue with the continuation of the uptrend. To give you a more positive point, let me explain that I have set up all the moving averages.
For those watching my video for the first time, let me explain a bit. There are red, orange, yellow, green, and blue lines, arranged in order as the 50, 20, 60, and 120 moving averages for easier viewing. This background is the Bollinger Bands. It is trying to form an uptrend. After passing through many downtrend zones, the red line...
well, if the green line just comes down, it will be in an uptrend, right? So, you can see that it is currently creating an uptrend by moving the green line downwards, and the 5, 10, and 20 moving averages are turning upwards. It is rotating and forming a positive alignment like this green line. If you look at the chart from the past when Coinbase was in a positive alignment, you can see a sustained rise, and even then, a continued rise within the positive alignment.
If we look at one more example, there was a positive alignment and a large upward trend. Therefore, since a positive alignment hasn't even been formed yet, it is a bit unreasonable to expect a sudden surge corresponding to this, but since it is in the process of forming a positive alignment, I am not paying much attention to it.
Day-to-day upside is not important to me. Ultimately, my only interest is how many shares of Coinbase I hold and how many steps and dollars Coinbase will eventually reach. Okay, here is today's summary. First, the US 10-year Treasury yield is showing a downward trend. I am viewing 4.38% as short-term support, and if it breaks below this level on the daily chart, it appears it will have a positive impact on the stock market along with a further decline.
However, I believe the possibility of a technical rebound here—that is, a slight further correction and decline in the market—is a bit higher. I am keeping an eye on this area. Second, QQQ 445 460 Source is forming a box range between 225 and 240; it is currently a price that has corrected from its short-term high.
However, there is a superstition regarding TQ being at the top of net buying for King Warrior, so I do not want to buy at that rate. Anyway, these two appear to be forming a box range. As for Nvidia, although it rose yesterday, the gap is quite large. However, the gap remains wide, and a bearish divergence is additionally visible on the buy side.
Therefore, I see a higher possibility of sideways movement or a decline rather than a further rise. Another point is that the public is hunting Nvidia heavily, which can be seen as a very serious problem. Let me mention a very bad sign for the US stock market: sayings like "Why work? If you trade the US stock market, money gets duplicated" really must not be circulating.
Right now, people are asking "Why work? Jensen Wang duplicated the money." It is truly a big problem. Now, regarding the fifth point, if the price of 25.3 breaks upward on the hourly chart's closing wave, I expect some degree of rebound to occur. I have drawn a red box there; I view this as the second magic zone.
Finally, Coinbase It’s unavoidable that it rose weakly yesterday, then fell, and then consolidated. Bitcoin coughed, but since the process is visible, I view it very positively. Rather than focusing on these temporary ups and downs, I intend to approach this from the perspective of the overall big picture.
Thank you for watching this long video today. If you enjoyed it, please subscribe, like, and turn on notifications. See you next time! Bye!
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