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so Tesla has had a pretty rough 2019 as a stock here but going into 2020 things may be looking up for this company one of the biggest catalysts around the corner is the gigafactory 3 that's coming out in China and today we'll be discussing some progress on this Factory that any Tesla investor should be aware of if you enjoy these Tesla videos make sure to drop a huge like down below 300 likes on this video and we'll continue coverage of Tesla on this channel so we didn't get some news in the last week or so around the progress of the Giga Factory in China here at Giga factory 3 and sources say that it is set to start production this month however there is some reports saying that production may not ramp up as quickly as initially expected and this could be bad for two reasons remember that most analysts that cover Tesla stock are very short-term thinking and as a result they're gonna be looking at what the stock is capable of what the company's capable of in the next year or so this means that any news or changes or anything out there that affects the company in the short term will most definitely impact the stock price so what I want actual discusses two situations here where if things work out could set up Tesla stock for a massive run in 2020 however if things don't go according to plan it could actually set up Tesla for another rough year ahead so the first thing being watched closely by these analysts is around their production number in China China is seen as a huge market for Tesla and this is critical because it presents a massive opportunity for the company the country is moving more and more towards an Eevee future and Tesla's actually the only u.s.
car manufacturer allowed to operate independently in China and their cars are in big demand in the country however the way it stands right now today before this factory's opened up is that anyone that wants to purchase a car from Tesla that lives in China will need to import that car and as a result pay huge fees for it now because of this the average person there cannot afford a Tesla and even the basic model threes are kind of priced to a more premium price due to those extra taxes and import charges that are applied to that order and of course for any company really with their product to really succeed need and reach the masses it needs to appeal to the middle class and needs to be affordable to the middle class so that's something that analysts are really putting a huge focus on here and the second big thing that analysts and investors also are looking very closely here at the company for is their guidance for the number of vehicles that they will be delivering in 2019 so Tesla previously set a guidance number of around 3,000 to 4,000 vehicles delivered by the end of 2019 this at the Skoll earlier this year and musk is confident that the company will surpass this they're pushing as many cars as possible and they just had another record quarter offer our ninety seven thousand deliveries in q3 and this is before the China factory has even opened up this brings their total number of cars delivered in 2019 to around two hundred and fifty five thousand deliveries and this said another huge milestone for the company because now in the first six months of this year they've already surpassed the total number of deliveries that they had in all of 2018 so this is gonna be another record year for the company however as we reach the end play 19 all eyes will be set on that delivery guidance to see if the company can surpass it as it stands today the company's actually around 105 thousand deliveries below the low end of their guidance so that's gonna be a number that's gonna be critical for both analysts and investors in the next quarter so the question of course to ask is as an investor as an analyst is Tesla going to meet these expectations or even better exceed these expectations and if so what is their plan to actually achieving that well the way I see it is that these two things we just discussed is why the Tesla Giga Factory is so important for the company right now so like we said right now Tesla is selling cars to Chinese citizens however because of the large import fees and taxes many people there cannot afford these cars well once the gigafactory opens up and they're able to produce these cars in China itself that's gonna bring down fees substantially and the middle class will be able to afford these cars this is of course going to set massive numbers in my opinion in sales for Tesla and definitely help contribute to a record order in the company in my opinion is quite possible here that this factor alone will help Tesla achieve their goals Ford guidance numbers in 2019 and on top of this they also have expanded to Europe recently so demand there of course is picking up as well so pretty much across the globe here you see demand for Tesla just ramping up month-over-month quarter-over-quarter year-over-year and that's actually a very good problem to have because it shows that Tesla is creating a product that people want and the company isn't able to fulfill those orders as quickly as customers are placing those orders so that's a really good problem to have in my opinion now this new Giga Factory is actually expected to produce around 1000 model 3 is a week going into 2020 so if we assume that there's 11 weeks left in the year this means that 11,000 additional cars in q4 will be delivered compared to q3 so that means the Tesla can meet the same demand that they had in q3 which is around 97 thousand cars and if they can add on another 11 thousand from this new Giga factory that will set them up for delivery numbers of around 108 thousand cars in q4 which will actually help them beat the low end of their guidance there however one good thing is that the 1000 cars a week is actually on the lower end of their guidance the ideally want to hit 2,000 cars a week by the end of 2019 if that happens we actually may have a shot here of this company surpassing the higher end of their guidance and if that happens I bet that we're pretty much set up for a pretty strong rally in 2020 so really as a Tesla shareholder is a very exciting time here in the company because it really poses a huge opportunity this is not something that comes around that often and I think that a lot of investors are starting to realize this as the stock kind of hovers around the 200 H dollar range this hasn't really been a great year for Tesla overall in terms of the stock price however their fundamentals are still the strongest that they've ever been they're setting record delivery numbers they have gigafactory three opening soon and they establish themselves as a number one evie player worldwide the company currently sits at around a 42 billion dollar valuation while bringing in a trailing 12 months revenue of around 25 billion dollars so we're trading at less than 2 times sales here which in my opinion is low for a growth company Shopify for example has around 1.3 billion dollars in revenue with around a thirty six billion dollar market cap and roku brings in around 900 million dollars in revenue with around a twelve point four billion dollar market cap and although these are not companies that are in the same sector or competitors to Tesla and do want to show you that the market typically prices growth stocks at a very rich evaluation but they're not doing that with Tesla here because they're afraid of the auto industry they're afraid of sales declining if we do hit a recession but in my opinion Tesla is a much more of a tech company with its AI and all that stuff than it is a pure auto company so as a result I strongly believe that they should be valued much higher than what they currently are at all so I'll be keeping a very close eye here on the free cash flow for Tesla a next quarter because this will actually show us how much money they have bringing in and if they can actually turn 2019 into a positive year free cash flow is generally a great metric to look at for the health of a business while they are operating to see how much money they can bring in that is usable for things like investments or dividends and the high the free cash flow is the healthier the business is so I'm pretty excited to see Tesla revealed their next earnings October 25th it's definitely going to be something that a lot of investors tune into because they want to see if you'll on musk is still as confident of their delivery goals for 2019 I think that if you have a combination of a strong earnings report for q3 and we have a strong outlook for q4 with delivery numbers and all that stuff then we're gonna most likely see a very strong rally in the stock sometime in 2020 the market has been suppressing this as much as it can here in 2019 stock even hitting as low as $100 per share at one point but in my opinion I think the darkest days for Tesla are pretty much behind them and we have a lot of positive things to look for in this company going into the next year so I want you to let me know in the comment section down below if you think that Tesla will actually beat their guidance for delivery numbers here in 2019 I personally with actual gonna come in somewhere in the range between their low end and high end of guidance I don't necessarily they're gonna beat 400,000 delivery is in 2019 but I think they can come pretty close to that which in my opinion will still be positive news for the company all I can really say is that if your Tesla bear do not underestimate the power of the new Giga Factory in China because that alone could set this company up to be a much much more profitable company moving forward thank you so much for watching guys hope you enjoyed this video don't forget to invest positively I'll see in the next one
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