저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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첫 줄 결론: Peter Schiff은 2018년 대형 주식시장 붕괴와 달러 위기, 금 가격 급등을 예측하는 비관론을 펼친다. 주식시장 폭락 전망: 기업 이익은 2013년 이후 사실상 정체인데 주가는 상승해 거품이 크다고 본다. 시장이 한 방향으로 쏠린 매매가 위험하다고 경고한다. 중앙은행 유동성: 세계 주가 상승은 중앙은행 유동성에 의존해 왔고, 연준과 ECB의 대차대조표 축소로 2018년 봄 월 500억 달러 규모 유동성 유출이 예상된다고 본다. 이 경우 고평가 주식의 지지력이 약해진다고 주장한다. 수익률 곡선: 장단기 금리차가 10년 만의 최저 수준으로 좁아졌고, 역전 시 경기침체를 잘 예측해 왔다는 점을 근거로 경기 둔화를 우려한다. 경기침체 경로: 기업 이익 붕괴가 침체의 촉발점이 될 것이며, 그 경우 실러 CAPE 비율이 100 이상으로 치솟을 수 있다고 주장한다. 다만 시기는 확신하지 않는다. 부채 디레버리징: 미국 경제는 부채 의존도가 커서 실질 성장 1달러에 약 3달러의 신규 부채가 필요하며, 약 35조 달러 규모의 신용시장 부채 정리가 필요할 수 있다고 본다. 달러 위기 및 국채: 이번 위기는 은행 위기가 아니라 달러 위기와 미국 국가부채 위기가 될 것이라고 보며, 정부가 디폴트 대신 인플레이션으로 채무를 소각할 것이라고 주장한다. 달러 보유보다 달러로 지급받을 약속을 보유하는 것이 더 나쁘다고 말한다. 금: 실물 매수 수요가 늘면 중앙은행의 가격 억제가 불가능해져 금 가격이 폭등할 것이라고 전망한다. 시기는 확신하지 않는다. 리스크 및 대응: 붕괴는 질서 있기보다 혼란스러울 수 있으며, S&P500이 2150선을 지키며 완만히 조정되면 큰 성과로 본다고 말한다. 사전 대비를 권한다.
다듬은 글
Peter Schiff warns economic collapse every body is going to get wiped out this coming crisis will hit everyone in the wallet money manager Peter chef who accurately predicted the 2008 financial crisis can already see the writing on the wall and he says everyone is going to get wiped out Schiff says that this time gold will explode and the dollar will be wiped out Schiff about the impending financial disaster we are facing almost 10 years after the 2008 meltdown Schiff had this to say I predicted a lot more than just the stock market going down back then I predicted the financial crisis but more importantly I predicted what the government would do as a result of a financial crisis and what the consequences of that would be because that s where we re headed the real crash I wrote about in my most recent book is still coming this is the third gigantic bubble that the Fed has inflated and when this one pops it does not going to be the third time as a charm it s going to be three strikes and you re out I think this bubble is too big to pop I think attests the mother of all bubbles and when it bursts there is not a bigger one that the Fed is going to be able to inflate to mask these problems meaning we can t kick the can down the road anymore shift thinks it could get even worse - it could go beyond just a financial crisis I think the problem we are going to be confronted with is going to be much worse than a financial crisis it is going to be a dollar crisis and it is going to be a sovereign debt crisis where the bonds people are worried about are not some subprime mortgages it s going to be the US government that people are worried about and the solvency of a US government and the Treasury bonds if it s a dollar crisis and people are worried about the dollar the only thing worse than owning a dollar today is owning the promise of being paid in dollars in the future I don t think we have the courage to default and admit to our creditors that we don t have the money and we can t repay I think we will create all the money that we need so we can pretend to repay but what we end up doing is wiping out the debt with inflation inversely shift says is the same with the suppressed gold and silver markets shift predicted market crash 2018 will the stock market crash in 2018 investors have been asking the same question for the last five years each time the answer was a resounding no so could 2018 be the year when the dam finally breaks many Bears would settle for a leak instead of a torrent the relentless stock market rally has defied all logic corporate earnings growth has been essentially flat since 2013 yet the market keeps rallying but instead of moving up with conviction it has mostly been melting forward this has led to one-sided trade with the bulls herded to one side the merciless melt up in stocks is leading to an ultimate paradox for investors do investors buy in at nose bleed levels or wait for pullbacks to adpositions after all if a question is when the next stock market crash will happen nobody wants to be at Optik bad holder the answer to this question for now is to dive in headfirst inflows into exchange-traded funds ETFs have remained incredibly strong this year through the first seven months of 2017 two hundred seventy two point zero billion dollars has flowed into the stock markets via ETFs that s almost matched the 2016 record inflows total of 287 point zero dollars billion if stock investors are worried about chasing overvalued stocks they are and he's showing it but there s danger with investors chasing equities in lieu of any half-decent correction some analysts are worried about too one-sided market this occurs when everyone is investing in the same direction leading to harrowing sell offs once investors sell at the same time so far any real damage has been confined to a day or two but this won t last forever investors conditioned to buy the day will be in for a rude awakening soon how strong has the market melt up in consider that a despot 18 months since the market has had to small 5 percent stock market correction June 2016 brexit sell-off furthermore the SNP 500 peasanty corrected even 3% in over 13 months the longest streak since 1994 it does absolutely mind-blowing when you consider all the macro risk from terrorism you name it even market veterans are perplexed by the market action 50-year NY se floor manager art Cashin is having trouble explaining things asked to explain how US stocks have continued to outperform while the 10-year Treasury yields have remained sub 2.5% cash and acknowledged that he has never seen anything like today s market that s telling considering that cash and started his career in the 1960 s I ve been doing this for over 50 years and I ve never seen anything like it so it is rather odd Cashin specifically was referencing stocks abnormal relationship with Lloyd's low yields implied heppen growth and low inflation which historically is the opposite of what should happen during a rip-roaring rally that in itself should be an ominous sign as is the yield curve which has recently crashed to 10-year lows but he might have well been speaking for the entire market ecosystem which is totally disregarding any traditional key economic indicator followed by investors specifically valuation which by any standard is inflated beyond reason will the current stock market rally continue in 2018 by now it s common knowledge that the world stock indices have been driven almost exclusively by central bank CB liquidity not just in America but Asia Europe Japan everywhere this is no accident the world is CB s are engaging in coordinated lose money policy much of it conducted through direct bond purchases to suppress interest rates another preferred method by the CB s-- is purchasing financial assets outright the Swiss National Bank currently owns over 2,500 different equity positions combined their stock market portfolio was worth over ninety point zero billion dollars if it were a hedge fund it would be one of the larger ones around in years past central banks left the markets unless the markets were crashing as we can see that s not the case anymore the combination bond reinvestments being plowed back into the markets direct asset purchases and low borrowing costs have directly caused the bow market conditions today anyone trying to swim against the liquidity tide by shorting the market has been eviscerated with all that said will there be a stock market collapse 2018 after all it s about looking forward not backward peering into my crystal ball I see signs that the current market order is coming to an end why because CBD liquidity is finally about to dry up the same forces driving everything sky-high over the past several years are coming to ended worse than that they may actually work against the market there is no free lunch in economics the Fed and ECB are about to halt bond purchases and allow bonds to mature in their existing portfolios this is the so-called quantitative tightening program some people may have heard about in America the liquidity drain is set to peak at around 50 point zero billion dollars / month by late spring 2018 that s a lot of potential liquidity not entering the markets the Fed has been busy telling us this normalization of their balance sheet will be like watching paint dry but it does not true a very expensive stock market needs all the liquidity it can muster to keep stocks grinding higher it does not Joe Sixpack buying Amazon shares at 1090 dollars a piece what happens after the program kicks in is anyone asked s but there s no question that if the market is to continue higher or avoid hardship it must rely on its own devices are you willing to take that bet are we heading to another stock market crash several stock market crash indicators point in that direction I am going to focus on one powerful one the rapidly inverting yield curve there is a reason why the US Treasury yield curve is followed so closely by market analysts it has historically one of the best market indicators for predicting us recession it does accurately called the last seven recessions without producing a false positive the most common spreads are between two year and ten year five year and thirty year when the shorter duration bonds yield more than the longer bonds the yield curve becomes inverted that s a powerful sign that economic growth and future expectation of growth plus inflation is weakening the reason for the yield curve s amazing predictive power is rooted in sound business principles why would banks lend out money longer term when they could earn more interest income lending short-term longer term lending has a greater risk of default and other disadvantages banks become more choosy about the money they shell out for big capital projects when the yield curve flattens out choking out funding for big capital projects this effect jobs the velocity of money and GDP so what has the yield curve doing now despite the fact the economy has grown over three percent for two consecutive quarters the yield curve is now trading at ten year lows not since just before the Great Recession have we seen 2/10 and 5/30 spread so low the 2/10 year curve above isn't he flat yet butted s arrowing fast it suggests the bond market doesn t like the economic growth picture being painted by the financial media who are you going to believe more poignant Lee does anyone think the market can continue to melt out of growth falters and the Fed takes away the punchbowl the answer is self-evident causes and effects of the stock market crash of 2018 the next Wall Street Crash will be brought about by a recession when corporate earnings collapse nothing will be able to stop the torrent of selling from one-sided trade from an expensive market the market trade Santa Cape ratio of about 31 right now in a recession induced earnings collapse the Cape could easily trade north of 100 if stock prices don t decline that s not happening even in the tech bubble the most expensive market in history the Cape topped out at around 50 so what will be the recession trigger the inability to ring more consumerism out of a deeply indebted population the substitution of income and savings for low-cost networks out until saturation takes place after that happens nothing can stop the inevitable when people and corporations run out of the ability to borrow the system must clear an order for borrowing capacity to return but the problem is a massive amount of deleveraging will need to happen to reach that point literally decades of ultra low rates and stimulus have pushed the credit boom to unimaginable levels it has gotten so bad that the current economy needs roughly $3 of new debt to create one dollar of real inflation adjusted economic growth some analysts have suggested about thirty five point zero trillion dollars of total credit market debt needs to be cleared before the problem will alleviate the last time deleveraging on that scale occurred was during the great day prescient returns from the liquidity bubble keep diminishing over time the check is almost due stock market crashed predictions for 2018 needless to say I am quite pessimistic about the stock market s chances going forward I believe slower trend growth will be evident by the back half of 2018 and the Seabee liquidity drain will weigh on stocks shrinking liquidity and slowing growth is a bad recipe for keeping expensive stock prices elevated the big question on my mind besides timing is whether the eventual sell offer will be orderly or chaotic with the proliferation of top-heavy ETFs passive index investors and record margin debt it s hard to envision anything orderly about it perhaps central banks will find a way to cushion the blow but perhaps a perfect storm of market turmoil s brewing nobody thinks it can happen in this environment most can t even remember the last time it did and that s exactly why bloodbath is a distinct possibility if the SNP 500 can hold 2150 in a controlled demolition I would consider this a major win just enough to let some air out without wrecking portfolios for the next 10 years they can t keep doing it and it will end it does just like how much debt can we take on it does not an unlimited amount we will know when we get there how long can they keep the price of gold suppressed we will know when we get there at some point the price is going to explode because there is real physical buying and all that paper selling can t camouflage that people don t trust fiat currencies more and more people are looking for alternatives and the real alternative is gold when they embrace it it s going to overwhelm central bank's ability to suppress the price in the meantime enjoy a gift that they are giving Schiff also said no one knows when this is going to happen for sure only that it will happen and you are better off to be prepared in advance a crisis rarely stops with a triggering event the aftermath can spiral having the capacity that crippled our normal ways of in dollars has flowed into the stock markets via ETFs that s almost matched the 2016 record inflows total of 287 point zero dollars billion if stock investors are worried about chasing overvalued stocks they aren't he's showing it but there s danger with investors chasing equities in lieu of any half-decent correction some analysts are worried about who one sided market this occurs when everyone is investing in the same direction leading to harrowing sell offs once investors sell at the same time so far any real damage has been confined to a day or two but this won t last forever investors conditioned to buy the debt will be in for a rude awakening soon how strong has the market melt up in consider that a despot 18 months since the market has had two small 5% stock market correction June 2016 brexit sell-off furthermore the SNP 500 peasanty corrected even 3% ending financial disaster we are facing almost 10 years after the 2008 meltdown Schiff had this to say I predicted a lot more than just the stock market going down back then I predicted the financial crisis but more importantly I predicted what the government would do as a result of the financial crisis and what the consequences of that would be because that s where we re headed the real crash I wrote about in my most recent book is still coming this is the third gigantic bubble that the Fed has inflated and when this one pops it does not going to be the third time as a charm it s going to be three strikes and you re out I think this bubble is too big to pop I think a tests the mother of all bubbles and when it bursts there is not a bigger one that the Fed is going to be able to inflate to mask these problems meaning we can t kick the can down the road anymore shift thinks it could get even worse - it could go beyond just a financial crisis I think the problem we are going time the answer was a resounding no so could 2018 be the year when the dam finally breaks many Bears would settle for a leak instead of a torrent the relentless stock market rally has defied all logic corporate earnings growth has been essentially flat since 2013 yet the market keeps rallying but instead of moving up with conviction it has mostly been melting forward this has led to one-sided trade with the Bulls herded to one side the merciless melt up in stocks is leading to an ultimate paradox for investors do investors buy in at nose bleed levels or wait for pullbacks to adpositions after all if a question is when the next stock market crash will happen nobody wants to be at Optik bad holder the answer to this question for now is to dive in headfirst inflows into exchange-traded funds ETFs have remained incredibly strong this year through the first seven months of 2017 two hundred seventy two point zero Billy to be confronted with is going to be much worse than a financial crisis it is going to be a dollar crisis and it is going to be a sovereign debt crisis where the bonds people are worried about are not some subprime mortgages it is going to be the US government that people are worried about and the solvency of the US government and the Treasury bonds if it as a dollar crisis and people are worried about the dollar the only thing worse than owning a dollar today zoning the promise of being paid in dollars in the future I don t think we have the courage to default and admit to our creditors that we don t have the money and we can t repay I think we will create all the money that we need so we can pretend to repay but what we end up doing is wiping out the debt with inflation inversely Schiff says it is the same with the suppressed gold and silver markets shift predicted market crash 2018 will the stock market crash in 2018 investors have been asking the same question for the last five years each Peter Schiff warns economic collapse every body is going to get wiped out this coming crisis will hit everyone in the wallet money manager Peter chef who accurately predicted the 2008 financial crisis can already see the writing on the wall and he says everyone is going to get wiped out Schiff says that this time gold will explode and the dollar will be wiped out Schiff about the
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