PETER SCHIFF A Nightmare bad news for the US dollar And US ECONOMIC IS COMING

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위안화 기반 원유 선물(상하이 국제에너지거래소)이 곧 출시되어 달러의 페트로달러 지위를 약화시킬 수 있다는 주장. 핵심 주장: 중국이 원유 거래에서 달러 독점을 깨려 하며, 이는 미국 재정적자 자금조달과 달러 수요에 타격을 줄 수 있다. 근거: 1970년대 이후 원유 거래 대부분이 달러로 이뤄졌고, 중국은 세계 최대 원유 수입국이며, 러시아와 위안화 원유 거래를 시작했다고 언급. 리스크/조건: 위안화는 달러에 고정·일일 조정되며 중국 정부 개입 우려로 주요 투자자가 꺼릴 수 있고, 사우디·러시아 등 대형 산유국 참여 없이는 시장 유동성 확보가 어려움. 예상 시기: 2017년 12월 크리스마스 전후 출시 가능성이 보도됨. 전망: 출연자는 달러 약세가 '점진적(glacial)'으로 진행될 것으로 보며, 금 가치에는 긍정적이라고 봄. 사우디 참여 여부가 관건이며, 중국 자본통제와 시장 개입 가능성이 해외 참여의 걸림돌로 지목됨. 금 연계 가능성: 중국이 금 기반 위안화 원유 선물 계약을 발표한 바 있어, 성공 시 금 가격에 상방 압력이 될 수 있다고 봄. 미국 경제·달러 영향: 달러 지위 약화 시 미국 재정 및 경제 성장에 부정적 영향 가능.

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01. Peter chef a nightmare bad news for the US dollar and US economic is coming China is aiming to overthrow the US dollar as the currency of choice for the oil market a move that could have far-reaching consequences since the 1970 s the oil trade has almost entirely been conducted in US dollars even when buyers and producers are not American the ramifications of the dollar denominated oil trade armaments because oil is priced in dollars there is huge demand for dollars lending the u.s.

02. economic and strategic power Beijing hopes to challenge the dollar by setting up a futures market with its own currency the UN to that end reports indicate that China is set to introduce an oil benchmark priced in un in the coming months for China there are a lot of upsides to this gambit an oil futures market based in you and will stimulate demand for the Chinese currency which China believes will lend its strategic clout that money is also more likely to be recycled back into the Chinese economy the US has been able to run huge budget deficits borrowing money at extremely low rates because of the demand for its currency petrol dollars continuously flow back into the US economy creating investment and economic growth that might not otherwise occur the dollar has also long been one of the Premier's safe havens for investors around the world China hopes to replicate this dynamic and as the largest oil importer in the world there is a great deal of logic in having oil contracts trade enuine but it won t be easy to unseat the greenback the plan is to launch an oil futures contract on the shanghai international energy exchange ine but there are obstacles in convincing large oil producers and consumers in using the UN and investing in the shanghai benchmark without some major countries participating like say Saudi Arabia or Russia it will be difficult to create a market that is deep and liquid enough to make a difference moreover because the UN does not float freely it is fixed to the dollar and adjusted daily major investors will be wary of trading in the Chinese currency my biggest reservations are the role of the Chinese central government potential state intervention and favoritism toward Chinese companies said John Driscoll director of JTD energy services according to CNBC on the other hand China has slowly loosened its grip on its currency GameChanger it is not at least not yet gal Luft co-director of the Institute for the analysis of global security told CNBC but it is an other indicator of the beginning of the glacial and I emphasize the word glacial decline of the dollar others see much more dramatic change coming from the launching of the shanghai benchmark awared Kiner managing director and chief investment officer of asset managers swiss asia capital told CNBC that the petro un is well advanced and already structurally in place up until now there have been some transactions in un but only in trade specifically with China and typically only with some smaller countries a run in particular was an early adopter of UN based oil sales an unsurprising fact given Tehran s eagerness to avoid the long arm of the US Treasury Department a more significant development was Russia agreeing to some UN based oil trade in 2015 also the result of US sanctions many believe that key to the success of the benchmark is convincing a country like Saudi Arabia to participate Saudi Arabia is one of the largest oil producers in the world and sells a little more than 1 million barrels of oil each day to China Russia is still the top supplier to China exporting one period 545 megabytes / D in September and in fact Russia has been taking market share away from Saudi Arabia in China if Riyadh wants to avoid losing more ground the thinking goes it may need to agree to un denominated sales recent reports that China s large state-owned oil companies are considering an outright purchase of five percent of Saudi Aramco a move that's Audi Arabia is rumored to be considering in lieu of the a romka oh should be seen in this context I believe that you and pricing of oil is coming and as soon as the Saudis moved to accept it as the Chinese will compel them to do then the rest of the oil market will move along with them Carl Weinberg chief economist at high-frequency economics said on CNBC earlier this month at that point things would really start to change and the dollar would start to lose its top status some see that as unlikely as Saudi Arabia would likely be met with blowback from the US but it would be a difficult choice for Riyadh lose the Chinese market or spark the ire of Washington it may not happen right away but the launching of the crude oil benchmark on the Shanghai exchange could mark the beginning of the end of the petro dollar China wants Teddy throne the dollar and it could take a step in that direction before the end of the year according to numerous reports China is prepared to launch a UN denominated oil futures contract before Christmas last week the Shanghai International Energy Exchange successfully completed a fifth round of U and back toil futures testing according to a report by RT the organization has met all the listing requirements and is set for an official launch Chinese trader un Kauai told Bloomberg the holiday season would be the perfect time to get oil trading in you and off the ground an official launch during Christmas would be appropriate the Western market would be quiet and allow the Shanghai exchange as well as Chinese investors to adjust in the early days this could be a Nightmare Before Christmas for the petrodollar in June China took the first step toward establishing a petrol youin when it launched a direct trade relationship with Russia allowing oil purchases to be made strictly in the Chinese currency but China faces hurdles as it tries to establish similar relationships with other oil exporters the UN is still widely viewed as unstable and illiquid economists now-why told Bloomberg the UN based contract has the potential to greatly help China s push for you an internationalization but bloomberg noted the hurdles the Chinese face as the world s largest energy consumer and an increasing source of investment capital for oil-producing nations China has an interest in using its own currency rather than that of a geopolitical competitor one hurdle for setting up a rival to brand or West Texas Intermediate overseas oil producers and traders would need to swallow China s capital controls and penchant for occasional market interventions to help allay international fears China may back some UN based oil contracts with gold last fall the Chinese announced the launch of a gold-backed Dewan denominated oil futures contract these contracts would be priced in Yuen but convertible to gold as Alastair McCloud head of research at Gold money told the Asian review including an option to have the contract paid in physical gold would ease some of the wariness oil exporters have about their un it is a mechanism which is likely to appeal to oil producers that prefer to avoid using dollars and are not ready to accept that being paid in you and for oil sales to China is a good idea either a successful gold backed Chinese petro un could be bad news for the US dollar and for the broader US economy the dollar s strength is highly dependent on its use as an oil trade vehicle if a un begins to undermine the dollar s position we could see a steady decline in the greenback while the rise of the petrol U and his nightmare for the dollar it could be good news for gold if the Chinese gold backed Dewan denominated oil futures contracts prove successful it could push the yellow metal higher as the petrol U and further erodes the strength of the dollar and as news max reported the Chinese move is significant for gold in the more basic sense for the first time since our nation abandoned the gold standard decades ago physical gold is being reintroduced to the global monetary system in a major way that alone is incredibly good news for gold owners you and $4 lending the US economic hand strategic power Beijing hopes to challenge the dollar by setting up a futures market with its own currency the UN to that end reports indicate that China is set to introduce an oil benchmark priced in un in the coming months for China there are a lot of upsides to this gambit an oil futures market based in you and will stimulate demand for the Chinese currency which China believes will lend its strategic clout that money is also more likely to be recycled back into the Chinese economy the US has been able to run huge budget deficits borrowing money at extremely low rates because of the demand for its currents Peter chef a nightmare bad news for the US dollar and US economic is coming China is aiming to overthrow the US dollar as the currency of choice for the oil market a move that could have far-reaching consequences since the 1970 s the oil trade has almost entirely been conducted in US dollars even when buyers and producers are not American the ramifications of the dollar denominated oil trade armaments because oil is priced in dollars there is huge demo some major countries participating like say Saudi Arabia or Russia it will be difficult to create a market that is deep and liquid enough to make a difference moreover because the UN does not float freely it is fixed to the dollar and adjusted daily major investors will be wary of trading in the Chinese currency my biggest reservations are the role of the Chinese central government potential state intervention and favoritism toward Chinese companies said John Driscoll director of JTD energy services according to CNBC on the other hand China has slowly loosened its grip on its currency GameChanger it is not at least not yet gal Luffy Petro dollars continuously flow back into the US economy creating investment and economic growth that might not otherwise occur the dollar has also long been one of the Premier's safe havens for investors around the world China hopes to replicate this dynamic and as the largest oil importer in the world there is a great deal of logic in having oil contracts trade enuine but it won t be easy to unseat the greenback the plan is to launch an oil futures contract on the Shanghai International Energy exchange ine but there are obstacles in convincing large oil producers and consumers in using the UN and investing in the shanghai benchmark without code director of the institute for the analysis of global security told CNBC but it is an other indicator of the beginning of the glacial and I emphasize the word glacial decline of the dollar others see much more dramatic change coming from the launching of the shanghai benchmark hey where'd Kiner managing director and chief investment officer of asset managers swiss asia capital told CNBC that the petro un is well advanced and already structurally in place up until now there have been some transactions in un but only in trade specifically with China and typically only with some smaller countries a run in particular was an early adopter of