저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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결론: 주식시장 버블이 꺼지며 금리 상승이 경기침체와 증시 붕괴로 이어질 것이며, 이후 연준의 QE 재개로 달러가 급락하고 금 가격이 급등할 것이라는 전망. 주식시장 버블과 하락 신호: 트럼프 후보가 주식시장을 '크고 못생긴 버블'이라 부른 점을 언급하며 버블이 터졌다고 진단. 2018년 2월 다우 666포인트 하락일 전후 팟캐스트에서 블랙먼데이가 1987년보다 훨씬 빨리 올 것이라 경고. 금리 상승이 핀 역할: 10년물 국채금리가 3%에 근접했고 30년물은 3%를 넘어섰으며, 이것이 주식 버블을 찌르는 핀이라고 주장. 감세 법안 통과로 재정적자가 확대되어 국채 발행과 금리 상승 압력이 커진다고 분석. 재정적자 확대: 새 예산 결의로 지출이 대폭 늘어나 트럼프 행정부하의 재정적자가 오바마 시절(대공황 이후 최악의 경기침체기)보다 커질 것이라 주장. 과거 오바마 시절 연준이 적자를 화폐화(1조 달러 규모 QE)했으나 현재는 하지 않아 금리 급등 우려. 경기침체와 부채 문제: 금리가 오르면 주식 폭락과 경기침체로 이어진다고 봄. 경제와 주식시장을 떠받쳐온 것은 인위적으로 낮은 금리뿐이며, 학자금대출·신용카드·자동차 부채가 역대 최고 수준이고 저축률은 10년 최저라고 지적. 연준 정책 전환 전망: 연준이 금리 인상을 철회하고 금리 인하 및 QE4를 단행할 것이라 전망. 다만 이번에는 효과가 없고 역효과를 낳을 것이라 봄. 달러와 금: QE4가 달러의 관 속 못이 되어 달러가 바닥으로 떨어지고 금 가격은 천장을 뚫을 것이라 주장. 지난해 달러가 5년 만에 처음 하락했고 1월은 1987년 이후 최악이었다고 언급. 달러 하락이 약세장이나 경기침체보다 더 큰 문제가 될 수 있다고 봄. 투자 방향: 방송 후반부에 돈이 어디로 갈지와 이를 활용한 투자 전략을 논의할 예정이라고 언급(구체 종목 언급은 자막상 확인되지 않음).
다듬은 글
hi there we're live from the Orlando Money show this is Stephanie cameraman and I am here with Peter chef I'm so excited to be interviewing you well happy to be interviewed especially now you guys got some big stuff going on right now yeah you know the stock market bubble right Donald Trump is a candidate said it was a big fat ugly bubble right and it's finally burst and there was a lot of air to come out so what did you see in the past couple weeks to pretty much let you know that hey what this is the top we're going to crush right now I started really warning about it in fact the the Friday that we're down 666 points I did a podcast saying I think black Monday is coming a lot earlier this time than it did in 1987 in the year I thought that Monday would be very weak but even a few days before that I started saying K are rising bond yields the pin that's going to prick this stock market bubble because what really got me you know not nervous because I was in long but what got me to to believe that we were headed for a significant decline was watching the the back up in long-term bond feels he has the yield on the 10-year Treasury got closer and closer to 3% were above 3% on the 30-year and when we got the tax cuts passed right that is a huge negative for the bond market because it means much bigger deficits because now the government has to borrow the money it used to collect in taxes but now they just passed this new budget resolution which is a massive increase in spending the budget deficits now under Trump are actually going to be bigger than they were under Obama when we were in the worst recession since the Great Depression this is unprecedented borrowing and when Obama was running these big deficits the Fed was monetizing them they were doing a trillion dollars your QE now they're not doing any that means we're going to have a massive increase in interest rates that means stocks collapse that means we're going into a recession because the only thing that's been propping up both the economy and the stock market has been artificially low interest rates extremely unprecedented lilo in every song and if you look at everybody is loaded up with debt we have record high student loans record high credit card debt record high automobile debt the savings rate is at a ten-year low everybody is loaded up with debt and the only reason that we can afford it is because the rates are so low well they're about to go a lot higher and the party is over so you're saying you're bullish well you know the thing is I don't think that is going to let all this happen see I think it's only a matter of time before the Fed cancels the rate hikes fesses up to rate cuts and launches QE 4 but the problem is it ain't going to work this time it's going to blow up in their face because that is basically the nail and the dollars coffin that is going to send a dollar through the floor the price of gold through the roof and then we're going to have a much bigger thing on our ought to worry about than a bear market or a recession right especially if the dollar goes down yeah and you know last year was the first year in five that it fell and it was the biggest drop in 14 years right January was the worst January for the dollar since 1987 now 87 they don't end all that well you remember I I remember and when we come back we're going to talk about where the money is going to go and what we should invest to take advantage of this right Peter okay sure the Friday they were down 666 points I did a podcast saying I think Black Monday is coming a lot earlier this time than it did in 1987 in the year I thought that Monday would be very weak but even a few days before that I started saying hey are rising bond yields the pin that's going to prick this stock market bubble because what really got me you know not nervous because I was in long but what got me to to believe that we were headed for a significant decline was watching the the back up in long term by credit card debt record high automobile debt the savings rate is at a ten-year low everybody is loaded up with debt and the only reason that we can afford it is because the rates are so low well they're about to go a lot higher and the party is over so you're saying you're bullish oh well you know the thing is I don't think that that is going to let all this happen see I think it's only a matter of time before the Fed cancels the rate hikes fesses up to rate cuts and launches QE 4 but the problem is it ain't going to work this time it's going to profession since the Great Depression this is unprecedented borrowing and when Obama was running these big deficits the Fed was monetizing them they were doing a trillion dollars your QE now they're not doing any that means we're going to have a massive increase in interest rates that means stocks collapse that means we're going into a recession because the only thing that's been propping up both the economy and the stock market has been artificially low interest rates extremely unprecedented Leeloo in every song and if you look at everybody is loaded up with debt we have record high student loans record high hi there we're live from the Orlando Money show this is Stephanie cameraman and I am here with Peter Schiff I'm so excited to be interviewing you well happy to be interviewed especially now you guys get some big stuff going on right now yeah you know the stock market bubble right Donald Trump is a candidate said it was a big fat ugly bubble right and it's finally burst and there was a lot of air to come out so what did you see in the past couple weeks to pretty much let you know that hey what this is the top we're going to crash right now I started really warning about it in fact the deals in fact has the old on the 10-year Treasury got closer and closer to 3% we're above 3% on the 30 year and when we got the tax cuts passed right that is a huge negative for the bond market because it means much bigger deficits because now the government has to borrow the money it used to collect in taxes but now they just passed this new budget resolution which is a massive increase in spending the budget deficits now under Trump are actually going to be bigger than they were under Obama when we were in the worst
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