저자: JeffreyGundlach · 외국인
요약 보기
Fed 11월 회의는 기존 'recalibration' 메시지의 반복으로 평가. 2년물 금리는 약 60bp 상승했으나 연준 기금금리는 75bp 인하되어 채권시장과 재조정됨. 선거 결과로 주식이 채권 대비 크게 상회. 고용은 가구조사 기준 11개월간 30만명 이상 감소로 둔화 신호. 국채 공급 부담(재정적자 GDP 6%, 이자비용 1.3조달러/년)으로 장기국채 비관적, 중기채 선호. 12월 추가 인하 전망, 수익률곡선은 평탄. 유가 70달러대 유지 시 헤드라인 CPI 2% 이하 가능, 2025년 중 3%대 CPI는 기본 시나리오에서 어려움.
다듬은 글
let's bring in now double line Capital CEO and CIO Jeffrey gunlock Jeffrey welcome back for our traditional visit hey judge good to be here again it's good to have you so what is your reaction to what the FED chare had to say today he used a couple of RW the one we talked about last time recalibration and then remarkable he said when describing the resiliency of this economy yeah recalibration showed up again and uh that's a repeat of the last meetings sort of word of the meeting and I think uh Powell feels very much that he's in a good place now because since the July 31st meeting we have the two-year treasury rate is up by almost 60 basis points and the FED funds rate is now down by 75 basis points so he's gotten much more in sync with the bond market by a a movement of fed funds relative to two years of 135 basis points of convergence in in just basically two meetings so uh I I really think that we probably have one more rate cut coming uh in December because that would that would true up the FED funds rate with exactly where the two-year treasury rate is right now so it it is it is interesting that we've had such a strong performance of the stock market since the last fed meeting while we've had interest rates Rising so you've had a tremendous outperformance of stocks versus at least treasury bonds since the last fed meeting and I attribute that basically to the the election result so we had an incredibly consequential election result very different than a lot of people probably were forecasting as a base case a few months back and we've had one of the least consequential fed meetings today with basically a repetition of this idea that the the the goals are normalizing the labor Market's normalizing you know the quits rate and the job openings rates are kind of where they were pre pandemic and so I think the FED is feeling very much that there are uh plotting along towards their goals and uh he said so in Fairly direct language today so yeah the the the thing that's sort of surprising me a little bit is that people are so uh willing to dismiss the softening jobs Market I mean the 12,000 jobs I know people want to attribute that to oneoff hurricanes and Strikes and stuff like that but I keep looking at the household survey and the household survey over the last 11 months has been a loss of jobs of over 300,000 jobs humanely over the last 11 months and so that typically is a little bit more real time at economic turning points it's still not terrible the household survey uh it's very volatile so we have to watch out for that but uh it is not showing tremendous signs of strength and the real problem that the bond market seems to be having from my perspective and it's being talked about much more in the open it came up several times at The Press conf conference today is that the supply of Treasury bonds is getting to be rather astonishing uh we we have A2 trillion dollar deficit it's about 6% of GDP over the last 12 months and we still have a growing economy and the interest expense on the debt which I always talk about three years ago was $300 billion per year it's now $1.3 trillion per year and we have a great volume of bonds that are rolling off with very low interest rates from five years ago or even even three years ago that are being refinanced at substantially higher rate levels and this is going to continue to be a supply problem uh for the bond market and for this reason we are not positive on long-term treasury Bonds in spite of the fact the economy is sort of gradually slowing down it's just the supply of bonds is very troubling and so we want we recommend investors stay at the intermediate part of the treasury bond market not out in the 20 and 30-year Bond sector in fact uh when we're at the low in rates basically several weeks ago we made another uh uh duration cut or maturity cut in many of our bond funds because we do not want to be exposed to this fiscal financing problem which I think uh could very well lead to Rising interest rates in spite of the fact that we might have a slowing economy so interest rates are rising we have an in with the curve is not inverted anymore twos to 10 it's not very positively sloped it's a very flat yield curve and we're anticipating that the FED will will will cut rates again in December so uh not a lot to take away from today's meeting it was Prett pretty much a repeat of uh the comments that were made by J Powell at the last meeting but I do think that he is much more in line with the bond market and there he is he is correct in uh exuding the idea that he's you a a normalized sort of a place and that he's making progress towards towards the Mandate the inflation numbers uh are lower of course the the pce core is at 2.7 there are some inflation numbers in the low twos uh we believe that if we keep the price of oil around the low 70s which has been a lot of resistance down at around 70 we think we're going to see potentially a headline CPI that's below 2% in about four or five months B based upon the structure that's there so J Powell will be able to pretty much declare a victory I also commend J Powell for bringing up the lags on the rent rolls uh the part of the inflation rate that remains elevated is kind of rent rolls the new the new rents are have almost no inflation but the old ones they come down with a lag and so that that that part of the of the inflation picture is probably still going to provide something of a of a a ceiling on where the inflation rate is going to be for for 2025 I don't I don't think under the base case we'll see a three- handle CPI inflation rate during the next 12 months Jeff
Comments 0