Tom Lee makes the case for a year-end rally

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선거 후 랠리 지속을 주장. 선거 직후 3% 급등은 사전 디리스킹 해소와 규제완화·M&A 기대(애니멀 스피릿)에서 비롯됐다고 보며 S&P500 5~10% 추가 상승 여지 제시. 마켓 탑은 6개월 내 펀파워 소진 또는 기대 과열에서 나올 것이며 마진부채 정체·심리 비극단 등을 근거로 아직 과열 아님. VIX 선물 커브가 비정상적으로 높았다가 정상화 중. 신규 ETF(Granny Shots US Large Cap)는 테마 기반 상위 종목(테슬라 1위 등) 구성, 테슬라는 AI·로보택시 등 숨은 자산으로 저평가 주장.

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01. Tom Lee is our headliner today he joins us now he's the managing partner of course and head of research also a contributor it's good to see you again thank you again for helping us um guide our investing viewers through election night it was good having you so what do you make now you you've had a chance to digest a little bit of of what's happened yesterday was you know felt euphoric now what well uh uh yeah first of all Scott thank you for having me on Election night it was historic and I I really um enjoyed it um the move yesterday 3% the best move in the history of any post-election rally I think uh needs to be respected because it really highlights uh one of two things or both one is that there was so much drisking into that election actually was unusual we we actually fell two weeks into election day that that happens like about a third of the time and the second is that animal spirits could be un Unleashed because of the the interest and belief that there's deregulation and mergers and a pro bus environment so I I think it's a very respectable move and I think it sort of argues we have 5 to 10% upside into your end at what point though do you get on board with Barry bannister's idea that we could be the train could be leaving the station heading uh you know full speed to Crazy Town well um he's sort of structurally correct that um you know this Market top is not going to be because of someone's going to have a problem with PE e or because a recession's uh going to happen I I think it's very likely you know in the next 6 months the top is because either firepower's exhausted or expectations have become unhinged on markets we can measure either right with a we can look at margin debt that's just been flat for the last 4 months so the Market's been up and most investors have been drisking that's pretty that's fuel for me upside Fuel and when you look at sentiment readings it's it's not extreme in fact the vix was elevated and only normalized yesterday so I don't think sentiment extreme gosh I was just going to ask you about the Vicks it's funny you went there I'm staring right at it mean it's down 30% on the week at just a fullblown collapse right don't forget we we're above 20 I think we're at 22 at one point last week we're barely above 15 yeah it was actually very interesting to look at the Vick's Futures curve but on Election Day the vix Futures curve was over 20 all the way through a August of next year that's it should be around 15 16 the markets were pricing in tumult and uncertainty for like 9 months 10 months so I think there's a huge amount of risking taking place I don't think people got their exposure yesterday and today I mean look you you I know thought that we wouldn't know the outcome of the election for many weeks I think that was your base case coming in so I think there's a lot of surprise rethink as we look at where this Market might be able to go on that note you do do have a new ETF which I want to talk about it's called the fun Strat granny shots us large cap ETF um Granny shots being that you think these would be a little bit easier to make right at the that's right it's how' you build it there we're talking about names I I hope that we show this I I think we we have produced this up U Tesla Goldman JPM Johnson Controls caterpillar Emerson trans diim Eaton Oracle ingersol that's the top 10 but H how' you build that um the granny shots uh ETF is really a leg or built upon the research model we used at funat that was a thematic uh core stock portfolio that we had been using since 2019 so for six consecutive years it takes seven what we consider relevant Market themes and it finds the most correlated stocks to those teams whether it's AI or Millennials or fed easing or improving um pmis and then the stocks that appear in MO in the most frequently across themes are our granny shots and Granny shots is named after Hall of Famer Rick Barry's way of shooting free throws some of us do remember that we definitely do um Tesla is the number one stock the waiting is 3 and a qu% you want to just talk about the move in in that stock this week and and what it means to you and in context of of how you've built this and where you think it can go yes um Tesla has in our research product had been appearing um since Inception since 2019 because that company has a hidden asset which is is its Ai and intellectual property and now of course the intellectual property built around all this infrastructure they own so it's a company that to us looks undervalued because people look at it as a a car maker or and look at at current margins and earnings but as we know there's a lot of new initiatives whether it's Robo taxi and you know robots and uh and now of course there is a political angle that you guys well discussed and I I think it can only help Tesla Tom be well we'll talk to you soon appreciate you it's Tom Lee fun Strat