저자: EdYardeni · 외국인
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트럼프 당선으로 감세·규제완화 기대가 주식 랠리를 이끌고 있으며, 경기침체는 당분간 없고 금리 수준은 감당 가능하다고 봄. 관세는 협상용 블러핑 성격으로 감세·규제완화가 상쇄할 것으로 전망. 금융·기술·커뮤니케이션서비스·산업재는 긍정적으로 보나 단기 급등 후 진입은 서두르지 않는 게 낫다고 함. 에너지는 산유량 증가와 중국·유럽 수요 약세로 유가 상승 여지가 적다고 보고 비중 축소를 시사. 헬스케어 관련 정책 리스크는 지켜볼 필요.
다듬은 글
and let's unpack what it all means for the markets yard Denny research president Ed yard Deni joins us now is that the most bullish scenario Ed for stocks the Republican Suite apparently so I mean the the market is certainly celebrating saying basically it's a new day in America so look we've been talking about the Roaring 2020 since the beginning of the decade and the the stock market's roaring because it's anticipating that we're going to get more tax cuts uh that we're going to get deregulation um and and that those will offset the negatives of uh some some tariffs clearly and maybe more government spending but on the other hand there's uh Elon Musk uh who Trump is uh kind of sicking on the government and uh asking him to come up with all sorts of of spending cuts so it's a very fluid situation but at the end of the day I think the Market's saying that the Outlook is pretty good we're not going to have a recession anytime soon and uh the economy can live with interest rates at these levels and uh the real question will be what does the FED do on Thursday I I think they should do nothing but if they do a quarter they're going to signal that they're not going to do any more anytime soon I mean the market is almost 100% that they're going to do a quarter so if they if they if they do nothing that would be a big surprise and uncharacteristic of Powell to not even leak you know something different than the market pricing I I I I I understand that but all the economic they say they're data dependent and the data has been very very dat has been good I mean yeah the data's been really good and now they have to consider the possibility that there'll be more fiscal stimulus more economic growth and do they really want to lower interest rates and contribute to that kind of stimulus and risk blowing their inflation uh Target I think what people might be wondering is okay now we have a very different outlook for America different policy different leadership clearly the Market's reacting today but how should you be making material changes to your portfolio and if so what and is it too late because some of these moves are already gigantic yeah I think it's a little bit late to get in and I certainly wouldn't be jumping in today uh but certainly you know we've been bullish since uh late October of 2022 and anybody who's been in the market should just stick with it I mean at some point there could be some profit taking on this kind of move but Ed I mean look look Healthcare is negative right now on the session stocks like meta who we've heard Donald Trump trash before Under Pressure financials are soaring the changing of exposures and winners and losers that's really what we're trying to figure out here more than just a day well I think even that's kind of difficult to do in this kind of rapidly moving Market I think you got to wait until things settle down we've liked the financials very much we wouldn't get out of the financials we haven't been keen on the healthc care so we wouldn't get in there if RFK is going to suddenly restructure uh that uh that that sector one way or the other so no we're we're feeling pretty comfortable we've been recommending technology communication Services Industrials financials uh the only clunker has been our recommendation for energy and uh maybe it's time to get out because Trump wants to drill baby drill so you know that that isn't going to be great for energy get out of the energy stocks on on lower oil prices uh yeah I mean I I think that uh Trump wants to produce more oil China's demand is going to remain weak Europe's demand remains weak and the us is going to be producing more so I don't see a lot of upside for for oil prices anytime soon is there a risk that all of this gets gets hurt if the if the tariffs do come to fruition and un result in you know what economists have warned of Which is higher inflation weaker economy retaliation that sort of thing or or or does does the deregulation and the tax cuts does that offset I think it offsets it and I think also uh a lot you know we basically the the deal maker is back Donald Trump is the art of the deal and a lot of his blustering about tariffs maybe attempts to negotiate better deals he did negotiate a better deal with Mexico and Canada last time and now I think he feels the need to go back and negotiate with at least Mexico again because so much Chinese production is moving to Mexico right all right Ed thanks for talking us through it nice rally 1.8% right now on the S&P Ed yard Denny
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