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how do there folks welcome into tonight's video a rare outdoor special here tonight okay first one up here from an hour ago everybody's favorable Tom Leon what he thinks is up to in the market and the fed and all those sorts of things watch that one I want to react to that one give my opinions and perspectives on that one then I want to react to this one Tesla and Google will be the biggest Tailwinds from autonomous vehicles I want to hear what Gene Munster has to say in regards to this and kind of give my opinions and perspectives out there so uh yeah hope you guys enjoy this as always appreciate y'all being here 33 200 plus subscribers Now new all-time high thank you every single person subscribe the channel and also if you haven't subscribed to my patreon and you want to do it I will go ahead and do it it's the pin comment down there it's up to you but uh it's pretty awesome if you haven't heard of it you get to be part of the Discord chat and you get to see the moves I'm making which I am making moves tomorrow in the patreon portfolio I will be buying some stocks tomorrow I might be doing a hedge tomorrow inside the patreon portfolio so you get to see what moves I'm making with stocks I'm buying selling Hedges I'm making every single week being part of that for 19 bucks it's a no dang brainer so make sure you join in there there'll be pin comment down there and let's get into this breaking down how all of this may balance out for your money after what has been and let's be honest a pretty doggone good start to the year or mid-year for stocks and bringing our friend tomly of funstrat in person on this epic hour Tom thanks for what are these guys doing back here where is this even filmed what is what's going on here where Cheesecake Factory I've been down here as well you've been one of the Bulls you have been right inflation is coming down the market has been I think soaring is a pretty good word we're up 17 year to date what have you done first lately where are we going from here Tom uh well Brian I think that was a great rundown you gave uh it's a lot there yeah but I think are these Tom Lee fans back here he's got a fan club we'll peel the onion this was a very good inflation report because it's setting up for the next two months to see inflation slow even further because the things that you mentioned like core Services X housing that came at point two two like four percent year over year but you're dropping two big months of August and September last year so the next few months that thing's going to start to fall I think markets should have rallied pretty hard today on on the inflation report well they did we were up 400 at one point of the Dow we ended in the green just touch but we came down we lost that 400 is the Federal Reserve done raising by the way oh is the Federal Reserve done raising rates let me show you guys what happened here today in the market uh because actually let's see um oh let's see I want to look at big Tech actually I mean it was decent day out there a lot of big Tech was green here today not much green uh in terms of the percent green but this is decent uh let's see if the arc stocks did it's kind of like a very boring day in the market that's the way I describe it the only drama was really tapestry today uh but overall pretty boring day in the market rates or with today's number is it you know possible we get another rate hike uh yes let's say I was originally in the 60 chance that July was the last hike I think it's now in the 80 range I think that the FED is done hiking for the cycle there's a big difference between done hiking and starting cutting and you know listen we're in the media I fully accept this blame folks we're either one all or nothing right yeah is there any talk of a rate cut at any time soon or is that just nonsense and we're gonna have to live here for a couple years uh I think rate cuts are definitely coming next year let's say that most people think it's second half because the FED doesn't want to tighten rates but if inflation's falling they have to cut rates otherwise it's actually constricting the economy more I I think they're going to be thinking about Cuts early next year is that one reason stocks have done well not just here by the way around the world Europe has done well a number of Emerging Markets but is that the reason that we're seeing a 40 jump on the NASDAQ this year is that all you guys you know the head your hedge fund buddies they're looking out 9 to 12 months and they're looking out maybe at those cuts and that added because stocks generally go up when there's more liquidity not less liquidity that's right and you know I think the stock market's just looking at the tenure at four and saying you know what so the thing you got to be careful with is you know a lot of people are running this assumption like oh fed Cuts rates it's great news like usually when the fed's cutting rates usually the Market's tanking so this is some food for thought there like usually it's not a very good because usually the FED if they're cutting rates it's because things are going bad and and they feel the need to cut baits so don't always be in a rush for the FED to cut rates because usually they're doing it because things are breaking in the economy or the banking system or some sort of scenario like that so if anybody's run into the assumption that when the FED Cuts rates it automatically means Market skyrockets it doesn't actually work that way it's there for five years it's actually a decent level for the stock market because it's it's a high enough rate look at this guy back here he's like oh my gosh that's my favorite bold Tom Lee he's on CNBC too much capital from forming but it's a it's it's a low enough rate for companies to earn a lot of money so it's historically it's Nirvana for PE the PE should be closer to 20 times if we can see the 10-year State around Florida I'm old enough to remember when four percent was considered impossibly low that's right and by the way when I that was like four years ago yeah and now we're doomed at four but I I think it's more like 20.
bears would make the argument Tom 30 years four percent by itself not bad four percent with a trillion plus deficit heading to 50 trillion in national debt a trillion in consumer credit card debt eight couple trillion in in housing debt that it's it's the level of debt not the level of borrowing cost that's the problem that's right all the things you described threaten the dollar as a reserve currency the dollars held up great I think when the if the dollar really starts to weaken then we have to worry that four percent isn't the right rate because they're going to have to raise the rate but I I think for now the stock markets and bond markets are saying dollars that comes when you're on the spot I know we end the year higher in the S P 500 than we are right now absolutely I I think we're going to take out all-time highs uh before the end of the year wow I wasn't expecting that taking out all-time highs by the end of the year uh what's my thoughts and perspectives on that I think it's a potential uh I'm just thinking like if we can get CPI to continue to come in line and we don't see any major spikes that's the important part and Nvidia comes in let's say and actually comes in with great numbers and let's say we see a re-acceleration of growth in the quarters that are going to be reported around end of October November then we could be looking at Santa Claus rally on top that's how you get to New all-time highs and indexes so it actually does have potential it's certainly not a guaranteed thing I'll say that but to see all-time highs it's a potential I'll put it like that um I think I would call it like a coin flip a 50 50.
in terms of a major crash in the market here at the end of the year probably not super realistic because the economy is probably going to be okay pretty decent actually and if anything is going to confuse people because it might actually look like it's strengthening in the back half of this year which should be really intriguing but don't let that confuse you and think like because the economy strengthens uh in the back half of this year like it's going to automatically strengthen 24.
it doesn't really work that way okay already Tesla Google are going to get the biggest Tailwinds from autonomous vehicles which Gene monster have to say is voting on applications from Cruz and waymo to add more vehicles and operate autonomously 24 7 throughout all of San Francisco the decision of which could have a huge impact on the industry and the experience we all have on the roadways let's get to fill the bow with the details what do we know so far Phil uh well the meeting has just begun Kelly and I think this is towards the bottom of the agenda at least the last time we checked so it may be a while until we get a final decision from the cpuc but let's recap what you said in terms of what this vote is because I've seen a number of people say well this is going to allow them to put autonomous vehicles all over the state of California no this is strictly about 24 7 service within San Francisco and other things like they might be able to add split fare routes in the future and it's just for Crews and waymo they are the ones who are applying to the cpuc why are they applying for expanded service in San Francisco well over the last several years as they have been testing their vehicles and testing the autonomous vehicle technology on the Streets of San Francisco they have expanded the number of vehicles that you will see out there and if you go out to San Francisco it's not uncommon to see a cruise vehicle or a waymo vehicle there are 300 in operation for cruise 250 for waymo I was going to make jokes about a lot of things that are very easy to see when you go go to San Francisco but that's too easy that's too easy the issue here is whether or not they should be allowed to go 24 7 allowing autonomous Rideshare and also I like San Francisco like I don't want to be distant on San Francisco man I think it's a great American city it's just been going through some struggles many leaders within the state uh within the city of San Francisco who are opposed to this they point out that there have been some very high profile incidents where autonomous vehicles have stopped in the middle of roads have sometimes blocked emergency response vehicles from getting by whether it's an ambulance a fire truck police car whatever it might be and in general they're not quite ready for prime time at least that's the contention of the officials from the city of San Francisco so as you take a look at shares of General Motors keep in mind that GM has a big bet on Crews it believes that Crews will hit one billion dollars in annual revenue by 2025 and it has been expanding the number of cities where Cruz is testing out its survey this Dallas Houston Nashville the idea is that eventually they want Crews to be an autonomous ride share service yeah Houston Atlanta Vegas so the good news about GM stock is basically there's nothing valued in that for Crews like literally nothing this stock is purely just valued on the internal combustion engine business and nothing to do with Cruz so if you actually believe in cruise and you actually think cruise up oh geez my baby scared me I was like what the heck I thought a coyote jumped in the backyard scaring me dude um the great news is you really want to say hi say hi the great news is in regards to GM if you believe in Cruz like actually GM stocks an easy Buy that can operate Nationwide now we're a long ways from that happening we're just talking about the city of San Francisco at this point but there are a lot of implications here Kelly oh tons uh Phil stick around as we bring in a couple of more experts to weigh in Mary Cummings is Professor of Robotics at George Mason University and an expert in this space and Gene Munster of course an expert on the stocks he's managing partner at Deepwater Asset Management welcome to both of you um I I suppose Mary let's just start by asking your view on How likely they are to give these companies permission to operate as hope well depends on who you are but a lot of people are betting that they're going to get the approval that this is really just a formality but I think the more important lesson to be learned out of this is regardless of whether or not the vote goes in the favor of Cruz and waymo this has been a huge public Nightmare and even if they are allowed to expand their operations I think you're going to continually see negative public sentiment groups are going to continue to rally and they're going to now create YouTube channels to continually write out the behavior of that's the thing that sucks because people are so dumb ah it's so frustrating you know here you have a you know ridiculous amounts of people dying on roads every day highways getting severely injured happens every day in every city right people are not good drivers they are not okay and here you have this technology that should potentially be able to do a million times better job of driving and not getting an incidents and humans do over time but we need to train the system so they can get that to that place right no different than a calculator is never going to make a mistake and is going to be you know far more accurate than a human and be able to calculate things way quicker than a human can right but the problem is people can't if one person gets hit they go crazy oh my gosh like these things are the devil right when people are getting hit constantly and in accidents constantly that are humans driving right it's very frustrating very very frustrating um and so that's the annoying part and that's going to be a process to go through and she's on unfortunately she's 100 right I wish it wasn't that way but it's going to be that way first when it turns out that to be not very productive and or unsafe and so it's kind of surprising that Cruz and waymo are pushing so hard in San Francisco because clearly it's not just the city officials but the public is not crazy about this car and even if they do win the vote I do not see smooth sailing ahead Gene what would you say about that and and how are the sort of Mega cap stocks most affected well as far as the sailing ahead I think that the topic of self-driving biscuit is three pieces to it one is the problem humans are bad drivers and disappointing to report 40 000 plus people lose their lives in auto accidents uh second is the tech we're not there yet Elon thinks we're there about at the end of the year which means they're probably a few years away and then there's the political piece to the topic and that's what we're really that's the pressure point today and this political piece is ripe for amplification because uh as uh politicians uh many of them are content creators and they want to build a narrative around their views that get people to move into action and self-driving cars are one of those polarizing topics and I think ultimately is that uh this political piece today doesn't really change the outcome of what's going to happen with autonomous driving in the end autonomous driving is going to be here and I think that we're all going to be very happy for that five ten years down the road and if you think about companies that are going to be benefiting for it I think the two are most clear Tesla front and center Elon said on their last earnings call that they expects a 30 plus x times 30 x times increase the amount of Miles training their FSD within the next 12 months and then you have Google with waymo that doesn't give a lot of attention so Kelly it's a function of time and it's uh Tesla and Google are the two companies yeah so in terms of who's going to benefit the most I definitely Tesla I think benefit huge you know what company sneaky company it's not talked about and this company is going to directly benefit from autonomous vehicles as much as anybody in the world okay and no one really talks about this one everybody's trying to figure out is it Tesla waymo uh is it is a cruise think for a moment picks and shovels Nvidia Nvidia is the one that's set to benefit as much from anybody uh for autonomous vehicles their chips are absolutely necessary in the process so I think that one is just you know a huge one if you're confused on is Tesla going to win waymo Cruise other companies other competitors right like you can always just go kind of picks and shovels route and that's uh Nvidia there so that is something to kind of keep in mind okay here folks uh if you're looking to join my patreon and you want to get in there check out the pin comment down there folks well tomorrow's the big day making moves you get to see my moves every single week it's pretty darn valuable much love and have a great day
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